AGI、AI 革命与人类工作的未来 | Mustafa Suleyman

欢迎回到节目。今天我们将进行一场关于 AI 的极具洞察力的对话。AI 正在彻底改变世界。你可能每天都在使用 AI。但今天，我们将学到比以往任何时候都更多的关于 AI 的知识，因为我邀请到了 AI 的先驱之一，Mustafa Suleyman。Mustafa Suleyman 是 DeepMind 的联合创始人，Inflection AI 的联合创始人。他曾在谷歌工作，现在是微软 AI 的 CEO。我们将了解微软 Copilot 产品的所有新进展，Mustafa 绝对会让你大开眼界。我们将学到比节目中以往任何时候都更多的关于 AI 的知识。我们还会讨论 AGI（通用人工智能）与许多人熟悉的狭义 AI 之间的区别。我们将了解 AI 如何变得比以往任何时候都更像人类，以及 AI 将如何真正成为我们的副驾驶，在工作和生活中帮助我们，甚至有一天可能成为我们企业的联合创始人。Mustafa 还将谈到与 AI 相关的遏制挑战。我们将了解为什么我们需要确保设置好护栏，让 AI 为人类服务，而不是与人类社会作对。我对这次对话感到非常兴奋。我真的觉得你们会喜欢。我想你们会学到很多。即使你是 AI 专家，我保证 Mustafa 对未来的预测也会真正打开你的思路。事不宜迟，下面是我与 Mustafa Suleyman 的对话。

Welcome back to the show. Today we have an incredibly insightful conversation about AI. AI is completely transforming the world. You're probably using AI every single day. But today, we're going to learn even more about AI than we've ever heard before because I've brought on one of the pioneers of AI, Mustafa Suleyman. Mustafa Suleyman is the co-founder of DeepMind, the co-founder of Inflection AI. He formerly worked at Google, and now he's the CEO of Microsoft AI. We're going to learn about all the new developments with Microsoft's Copilot product and Mustafa is going to absolutely blow your mind. We're going to learn so much more about AI than we ever have on the show. And we talk about the difference between AGI, artificial general intelligence, and the narrow AI that a lot of us are familiar with. We're going to learn how AI is becoming more humanlike than ever and how AI is going to truly become our co-pilot, helping us in work and life and even potentially one day being our co-founders of our businesses. Mustafa also is going to cover the containment challenge related to AI. And we're going to learn how we need to make sure we put up guard rails so that AI works for us and not against us as a human society. I'm so excited for this conversation. I really think you guys are going to love it. I think you guys are going to learn so much. Even if you're a pro at AI, I guarantee you Mustafa's future predictions are going to really open your mind. So without further ado, here's my conversation with Mustafa Suleyman.

Mustafa，欢迎来到 Young and Profiting 播客。

Mustafa, welcome to Young and Profiting podcast.

很高兴来到这里。非常感谢邀请我。

It is great to be here. Thanks so much for having me.

我对这次采访感到非常兴奋。我的听众喜欢了解 AI。你一直是 AI 领域的先驱。你创立了 DeepMind，是联合创始人。你联合创立了 Inflection AI。你现在领导微软 AI，我读了你的书《The Coming Wave》。你说过 AI 有很多威胁。你甚至说，对全球世界秩序也有威胁。所以我的第一个问题是，当谈到 AI 时，你是乐观主义者还是悲观主义者？

I'm so excited for this interview. My listeners love to learn about AI. So you have been a pioneer in AI. You founded DeepMind, co-founded it. You co-founded Inflection AI. You're now leading Microsoft AI and I read your book, The Coming Wave. And one of the things that you say is that AI has a lot of threats. There's even, you say, a threat to global world order. So my first question is to you, are you an optimist or a pessimist when it comes to AI?

是的，这是个好问题。我认为，要理性，你必须两者兼具。如果你只站在一边，你可能就错过了真相的重要部分。因为我认为 21 世纪的智慧是能够同时在工作记忆中持有多个令人困惑或矛盾的想法，并在这些想法中导航出一条路径，而不会让你以负面或非建设性的方式去描述那些不同意你或看法略有不同的人。所以，确实，这个 AI 时刻将在未来几十年内为人类历史上带来最大的生产力提升。这对我来说是毋庸置疑的。我不认为这让我成为乐观主义者。我认为这让我成为底层趋势的好预测者。同时，它也将以我们从未见过的颠覆性方式——无论是正面还是负面的颠覆——创造最大的变化。对吧？这将极大地破坏我们目前理解世界的方式、我们的工作方式、我们的政治运作方式，从根本上甚至破坏作为人的意义。所以，我们即将经历一场革命。我认为在那个世界里，我既乐观，也有部分感到悲观。

Yeah, it's a great question. I mean, I think that to be rational, you have to be both. And if you just sit on one side or the other, you're probably missing an important part of the truth. Because I think wisdom in the 21st century is being able to hold multiple confusing or contradictory ideas in working memory at the same time and navigate a path through those things which doesn't leave you sort of characterizing those who disagree with you or somehow like see things slightly differently in a negative or sort of unconstructive way. And so it is true that this AI moment is going to deliver the greatest boost to productivity in the history of our species in the next couple of decades. That to me is unquestionable. I don't think that makes me an optimist. I think that makes me a good predictor of the underlying trends. At the same time, it is also going to create the most change in a disruptive, positive and negative version of disruptive way we've ever seen. Right? And that is going to be incredibly destabilizing to the way that we currently understand the world to be, the way that we work, uh, the way our politics operates, fundamentally what it even means to be human. So, we're about to go through a revolution. And I think that you know in that world I'm both optimistic and there are parts of me that do feel pessimistic.

所以，你谈到与强大技术相关的一个问题是遏制问题，你说这将是我们要面临的最大挑战之一。那么，这个遏制问题是什么？遏制像 AI 这样的技术有哪些挑战？

So one of the things that you talk about related to powerful technologies is a containment problem and you say it's going to be one of the biggest challenges that we have. So what is this containment problem and what are the challenges with containing technologies like AI?

是的。所以过去的目标是发明东西，让科学使我们的生活更平静、更快乐、更健康，而竞赛一直是如何尽快解锁这些能力。我们想要创造、生产、发明和解决挑战，这就是我们在蒸汽、石油、电力、风能和食品系统方面所做的，我们看到了创造力的爆发。当然，在过去几个世纪里，但这也是我们人类的历史，对吧？所以，那里的目标一直是扩散，尽可能广泛地传播，以便每个人都能立即享受好处。现在，我推测的遏制假说是，如果这次我们对 AI 技术以完全不过滤的方式这样做，那么就有可能赋予每个人实时对其他人产生巨大影响的能力。所以我们不仅仅是在谈论传播信息和知识。那是其中的一部分。但越来越多地，你的 AI 智能体或副驾驶将能够在现实世界和数字世界中实际做事。而构建其中一个东西的成本将是零边际成本。对吧？所以每个人在 20 年内，甚至可能更早，都将能够使用它们。这将彻底改变我们做事的方式、我们相互互动的方式，并可能造成巨大的混乱。因此，系统中有一点摩擦可能是我们的朋友。这就是我在遏制假说中真正提出的全部内容。遏制事物，以便我们作为一个社会能够集体仔细思考潜在的未来后果和第三阶效应。在这一点上，这似乎是理性的做法。

Yeah. So in the past the goal has been to invent things and have science make our lives calmer and happier and healthier and the race has been how do we unlock these capabilities as fast as possible. We want to create and produce and invent and solve challenges and that's what we did with steam and you know oil and electricity and wind and you know food systems and we've seen this explosion of creativity. certainly in the last couple centuries, but that's also been the history of our species, right? So, the goal there has been proliferate, spread it as far and wide as possible so that everyone can enjoy the benefits immediately. Now the thing that I've speculated about which is the containment hypothesis is that if we do that this time with AI technologies in a completely unfiltered way then that has the potential to empower everybody to have a massive impact on everybody else in real time. So we aren't just talking about spreading information and knowledge. That's one part of it. But increasingly your AI agents or your co-pilots will be able to actually do things in the real world and in the digital world. And the cost of building one of those things is going to be zero marginal cost. Right? So everyone's going to have access to them in 20 years, maybe even much earlier. And that's going to completely change how we get things done, how we interact with one another, and potentially cause a huge amount of chaos. And so a little bit of friction in the system could be our friend here. And that's that's really all that I'm positing in the containment hypothesis. Containing things so that we can collectively as a society think carefully about the potential future consequences and the third, you know, order effects. That seems like a a rational thing to do at this point.

这很有道理。那么你对 AI 以及围绕监控和偏见等问题有什么看法？

That makes a lot of sense. So what are your thoughts around AI and a problem surrounding like surveillance and bias and things like that?

是的，好问题。我的意思是，这项技术有很多潜在的滥用方式，在某些方面，这会集中权力。它使一小群人更容易看到整个生态系统中正在发生的事情，即

Yeah, good question. I mean there are lots of potential ways that this technology gets misused and in some respects this concentrates power. It makes it easier for a small group of people to see what is happening in an entire ecosystem i.e.

理解大量人群的面孔、图像和模式，你知道，我们社会中成群结队走动的人。这当然可以用于很多好事，对吧？我的意思是，我们希望有一支能够维持秩序和结构的警察队伍，等等。但另一方面，这也让独裁者、任何类型的暴君更容易识别他们想要清除的少数群体，对吧？而且找到大海捞针中的那根针会容易得多。再说一次，这有惊人的好处，因为你可以抓住坏人，但它也可能很可怕。所以，每一个进步都有这种在危害和利益之间的平衡行为。

Understand the faces and the images and the patterns of massive numbers of people, you know, crowds of people walking around in our societies. And that certainly can be used for a lot of good, right? I mean, we want to have a police force that is capable of instilling order and structure and so on. The flip side is that also makes it easier for authoritarians, despots of any kind to identify minority groups that they want to get rid of, right? And it'll just be much easier to find the needle in the haystack. And again, that has amazing benefits because you can catch the bad guy, but it also is potentially scary. And so, each one of these steps forward has that balancing act between the harms and the benefit.

那么，我们来谈谈好处吧。因为我一直在问你很多关于负面的事情。那么，AI 如何帮助我们解决世界饥饿和贫困之类的问题呢？

So, let's talk about the benefits. Because I've been asking you a lot about the negative. So, how can AI help us solve things like world hunger and poverty and things like that?

嗯，一种思考方式是，智能是让我们作为一个物种变得高效和成功的东西。不仅仅是我们的肌肉或体力。实际上是我们的头脑和我们在复杂环境中做出预测以解决难题的能力。这真的是我们特殊和富有创造力的本质。我们学会使用工具，我们发明东西。所以那种智能，那种能够预测接下来会发生什么的技术，实际上是我们越来越多地学习自动化，并本质上将其转变为一种可以被所有人使用的智能系统。那么这意味着什么？这意味着，好吧，我们现在有了这个让我们变得聪明、高效并创造了文明的东西。智能这个概念本身将变得廉价且丰富。坦率地说，就像能源一样，石油加速了我们物种的创造，我们现在地球上有 70 亿人，很大程度上是石油普及的结果。对吧？下一波是每个人都将获得个性化的实时知识，以及一个伴侣、一个助手、一个教练、一个向导、一个副驾驶，它将帮助你在实践中完成事情。它将帮助你创造、发明、解决问题并完成事情。所以这是一个巨大的力量倍增器。所以对于每个想要解决世界饥饿或发明新能源系统或解决电池挑战以便我们真正释放可再生能源力量的人来说，我们现在将有一个超级智能助手触手可及，帮助你解决这些问题。

Well, one way of thinking about it is that intelligence is the thing that has made us productive and successful as a species. It's not just our muscle or our brawn. It's actually our minds and our ability to make predictions in complex environments to solve hard problems. This is really the essence of what makes us special and creative. We learn to use tools and we invent things. So that intelligence, that technique of being able to predict what's going to happen next, that is actually something that we're increasingly learning to automate and essentially turn into an intelligent system that can be used by everybody. So what does that mean? That means, okay, well, we now have this very thing that made us smart and productive and created civilization. That very concept, intelligence, is going to be cheap and abundant. Just like energy, frankly, oil has turbocharged the creation of our species and we now have 7 billion people on the planet largely as a result of the proliferation of oil. Right? The next wave is that everybody is going to get access to personalized real-time knowledge and a companion, an aid, a coach, a guide, a co-pilot that is going to help you get things done in practice. It will help you create and invent and solve problems and get things done. And so that is a massive force amplifier. So for everybody who wants to solve world hunger or invent new energy systems or solve the battery challenge so that we can really unlock the power of renewables, we now are going to have a super intelligent aid at your fingertips that's going to help you work through those problems.

想到这个真是太酷了，当你说话时，我想到了 iPhone，对吧？我们把它放在口袋里。它不是，你知道，个性化的 AI。它不是 AI 伴侣或类似的东西，但它让我们能够获取世界知识。它确实推动了人类前进，现在又有另一波浪潮即将到来，这非常令人兴奋，我觉得我们已经为此做好了准备，因为我们已经有了像 iPhone 和互联网这样的东西，你会这么说吗？

It's so cool to think about and as you're talking I think about like the iPhone, right? We had that in our pocket. It's not, you know, personalized AI. It's not an AI companion or anything like that, but it gives us access to knowledge of the world. It really has moved us forward as humans and now there's like another wave coming and it's pretty exciting and I feel like we're already ready for it because we've had stuff like the iPhone and the internet, would you say?

是的，你说得完全对。而且在很多方面，iPhone 的影响同样难以预测。就像如果你在 1985 年对人们说，互联网会带来什么，很少有人会预测到移动电话具有实时通信、视频流、相机和麦克风在你的口袋里，几乎每个房间的桌子上。那听起来会非常反乌托邦和可怕。然而，由于摩擦，由于我们花了几十年才真正弄清楚并在实践中让它运作，我们已经围绕这些东西创建了边界，对吧？我们有安全，我们有加密，有隐私标准，有真正的监管者做出有意义的干预，还有公众压力，你知道，有反应，它以真正健康和富有成效的方式稳定了这些技术的到来。这有点令人难以置信。你说得对。就像谁会想到 iPhone 会做什么？

Yeah, you're totally right. And in many ways, the iPhone's impact was just as hard for people to predict. Like if you said to people in 1985, like what would the internet enable, very few people would have predicted mobile phones with real-time communication, video streaming, a camera and a microphone in your pocket, right on the table almost in every room. That would have sounded terribly dystopian and scary. And yet because of the friction, because it's taken us a couple decades to really figure it out and get it working in practice, we've created boundaries around these things, right? We've got security, we have encryption, there are privacy standards, there are real regulators that make meaningful interventions and there's public pressure and there's, you know, a reaction and it steadies the kind of arrival of these technologies in a really healthy and productive way. And it's kind of mind-blowing. You're right. Like who would have thought what the iPhone would have done?

是的。嗯，我对一切超级兴奋。我确实想稍微谈谈你的背景。你共同创立了 DeepMind，我们有共同点是我们都非常热衷于人权。我离线时告诉过你，我是 100% 的巴勒斯坦人。所以，对我来说，尤其是今年，你是叙利亚人，我知道，你知道，世界上正在发生的全球问题让我们这些事成为首要考虑。你很久以前就是人权活动家。你就是那样开始你的职业生涯的。所以跟我谈谈你与人权和行动主义的经历如何真正帮助塑造了你的愿景以及你与 DeepMind 相关的一些伦理决策。

Yeah. Well, I'm super excited about everything. I do want to touch on your background a bit. So, you co-founded DeepMind and something that we have in common is that we're both really passionate about human rights. I was telling you offline, I'm Palestinian 100%. So, top of mind for me, especially this year, you're Syrian and I know that, you know, there's just global issues going on in the world that makes us top of mind. And you were a human rights activist long ago. That's how you started your career. So talk to me about how your experience with human rights and activism really helped shaped your vision and some of your ethical decisions related to DeepMind.

谢谢你的问题。人权是我认为和平与稳定社会解决方案的核心。我认为你的成功和我的成功可能很大程度上是我们有幸生活在一个没有战争的社会、能够获得良好教育体系、能够获得医疗保健，并且真正有机会成为我们想成为的人。而不是在可能处于难民营中间、经历战争、完全混乱的社会中长大，家庭月复一月或年复一年地搬迁，最终成为难民。我认为最重要的是，我们必须对经历过这种挣扎的人有更多的同理心和善意。我们倾向于，有一种将难民或移民妖魔化的倾向，好像他们是来从我们稳定的世界中偷东西的，但实际上，他们实际上是在逃离疯狂的苦难。所以，我们必须对这类人更加富有同情心、宽容和善良。记住那些人就像我们一样，我们的社会在美国、英国和欧洲也可能崩溃，就像他们的社会此刻恰好正在崩溃一样，你知道，我们必须伸出友谊和爱之手，人权框架教会了我这一点。因为我成长为一个相当严格的穆斯林，我在十几岁末和二十岁出头时意识到，这是一种过于狭隘的世界观，你知道，优先考虑穆斯林身份而不是人类身份。对我来说，没有性别平等是不合理的。对我来说，选择与同性成员在一起的人突然被妖魔化，他们不知怎么就成了邪恶的，这也不合理。这些对我来说都没有意义。而人权框架尊重每个人都是平等的。我就是看不出这怎么不是正确的生活方式。完全是这样。嗯，是的，我成为了一个无神论者和世俗主义者，你知道，一个坚信这种权利框架适用于所有人的人。

Thanks for the question. Human rights is core to what I believe to be the solution for a peaceful and stable society. I think like your success and my success is probably largely a function of the privilege that we have to live in a society not at war, have access to a great education system, be able to get access to health care, and really just get the chance to be who we want to be. Instead of growing up in societies that are maybe in the middle of a refugee camp, going through war, in the middle of complete chaos, families that get moved on, you know, month after month or year after year and essentially end up being refugees. And I think that more than anything, we have to have so much more empathy and kindness for people who have been through that struggle. Like we tend to, there tends to be a sort of, you know, a demonizing of refugees or migrants as though they're like coming to steal something from our stable worlds, but in fact, they're actually fleeing insane hardship. So, we have to be way more compassionate and forgiving and kind to those kinds of people. And remember that those people are just like us, like our societies could fall apart in the US, in the UK and Europe just as their societies happen to be falling apart at this moment in time and you know we have to extend a hand of friendship and love and the human rights framework taught me that. Because I grew up as a pretty strict Muslim and I realized, you know, sort of in my late teens and early 20s that it was too narrow, a kind of worldview, you know, prioritized being Muslim over being human. And it didn't make sense to me that there wasn't gender equality. It didn't make sense to me that, you know, people who chose to, you know, get with a member of the same sex suddenly got demonized and they were like, you know, evil somehow. That none of that made sense to me. Whereas a human rights framework respects everybody as equals. And I just can't see how that isn't the right way to live. Like, totally. Um yeah, I became an atheist and secular and you know a big believer in in these kind of rights frameworks for everyone.

那么，这如何塑造了你对 AI 的思考方式，以及你在 DeepMind 决定如何开发技术的方式？

And then how did that shape the way that you thought of AI and the way that you decided to develop your technology at DeepMind?

嗯，把 AI 想象成一种力量放大器。所以问题是，它在放大哪种力量，以及它在放大过程中施加了哪种框架？它向世界输出了什么样的价值观、什么样的理念？它的边界在哪里？它不做什么？所以技术从根本上说是一个伦理问题。它显然关乎我们如何重新构建我们的文化、我们的理念、我们的娱乐、我们的音乐、我们在世界上的知识。对吧？所以从一开始我们创办 DeepMind 时，我就非常清楚，我们将肩负巨大的道德责任，去思考把这些智能体、这些副驾驶带入世界会是什么样子。它们的价值观会是什么？它们不会做什么？它们的局限性是什么？所以这一直是我的一个巨大动力，也是导致我们被 Google 收购以及我在 Google 期间和之后努力的结构中的重要部分，一直都非常关注这个问题。

Well, think about AI as a force amplifier. So the question is which force is it amplifying and which frame is it placing on the amplification? So what set of values, what ideas is it putting out into the world? What are its boundaries? What does it not do? And so technology is fundamentally an ethical question. It is clearly about how we reframe our culture and our ideas and our entertainment, our music, our knowledge in the world. Right? So it was very obvious to me from the very beginning that we started DeepMind that we were going to have a huge moral responsibility to think about what it's going to be like to bring these agents, these co-pilots into the world. What would their values be? What would they not do? Like what are their limitations? And so that always was a big motivator for me and was a big part of the kind of structure that led to our acquisition by Google and subsequent efforts over my time at Google and since then have always been very focused on that question.

那么说到你在 DeepMind 的技术目标，你有创造 AGI——通用人工智能——的目标。我们在播客上从未谈论过这个。我想可能 90% 的听众都不知道 AGI 是什么。你能解释一下那是什么吗？

So when it comes to your technology goals at DeepMind you had the goal of creating AGI artificial general intelligence. We've never talked about that on the podcast. I don't think uh probably 90% of my listeners have no idea what AGI is. Can you explain what that is?

是的，好问题。我的意思是，这是一个在极客小众圈子里经常被提及的术语，现在有点破圈了，但基本上，通用智能的概念是它能够在任何环境中学习，并且随着时间的推移，它最终会变成超级智能。它会通过自我学习和从你放入的任何环境中学习而变得更好。好到它在任何知识或行动任务上都超越人类表现。

Yeah, great question. I mean, this is a term that gets banded around quite a lot in kind of nerd niche circles and it's sort of broken out a little bit now, but I mean, basically, the idea of a general purpose intelligence is that it's capable of learning in any environment and over time it will end up becoming a super intelligence. It will get better by learning from itself and learning from any environment that you put it in. So much so that it kind of exceeds human performance at any knowledge or action task.

所以它可以玩任何游戏，控制任何物理基础设施，学习任何学科。你知道，未来它将是一个非常非常强大的系统。但我确实认为那还很遥远。在我们达到那一步之前，只会有普通的 AI 系统或 AI 伴侣，它们能用你我互相交谈的同样语言与你交谈。我相信很多人都玩过各种聊天机器人，比如 ChatGPT 和 Copilot，你可以看到它变得相当不错。它仍然有点笨拙，但知识相当渊博。我们最近已经大幅减少了幻觉。我们增加了实时信息访问，所以它可以查看新闻，知道天气，并且会有一种时间意识。嗯，我认为在我们需要担心大型 AGI 之前，这些系统还会存在很长一段时间。但你知道，那可能正在到来。

So it could play any game, control any physical infrastructure, learn about any academic discipline. You know, it's going to be a really really powerful system in the future. But I do think that's a long long way away. Before we get there, there are just going to be regular AI systems or AI companions that can talk to you in the same language that you or I talk to one another. I'm sure lots of people have played with various chat bots like ChatGPT and co-pilot and you can see it's getting pretty good. Like it's still a little awkward, but it's pretty knowledgeable. We've been reducing the hallucinations quite a lot lately. We've added the real time access to information so it can check up on the news and it'll know the weather and it'll kind of have a temporal awareness. Um, and those systems I think are going to be around for a pretty long time before we have to worry about a big AGI. But you know that is that is probably coming.

所以当你说幻觉时，你是指 AI 给出的不正确信息吗？

So when you say hallucinations are you talking about incorrect information coming from AI?

好问题。不完全是。我把幻觉理解为模型发明了新东西，对吧？所以有时你希望它有创造力，比如你实际上想让它找到斑马、柠檬和纽约出租车之间的联系，对吧？如果你问它那个问题，它会想出一些创造性的、诗意的联系，把这三样东西连接起来。但有时你只是希望它非常切中要害，不要跑题，不要谈论各种你知道的、创造性的、诗意的废话。你只想让它给你事实。

Good question. So not quite. Like I think of a hallucination as the model um inventing something new, right? And so sometimes you want it to be creative like you're actually looking for it to find the, you know, connection between a zebra and a lemon and a New York taxi, right? And if you ask it that question, it's going to come up with some creative poetic connection that links those three things. But then sometimes you just want it to be like super to the point and not wander off and talk all kinds of, you know, creative poetic nonsense. You just wanted to give you the facts.

是的。

Yeah.

所以这是一个光谱。我们试图做的是，根据你问模型的问题，弄清楚我们应该把它置于更具创造性的模式，还是更精确、更具体、更可能准确的模式？这就是幻觉挑战。

So that's a spectrum. And what we're trying to do is figure out from a query like given the thing that you're asking the model, um, should we put it into a more creative mode or a more like precise and specific mode that's more likely to be accurate? And that's kind of the hallucination challenge.

AGI 与狭义 AI 有何不同？主要区别是什么？

How is AGI different from narrow AI? Like what's the main differences?

嗯，狭义 AI 就是我描述的那种对话伴侣，它是有局限的。它不会自我改进。

Well, narrow AI is the kind of conversational companions that I was describing like it's limited. It doesn't improve on its own.

好的。

Okay.

所以你知道，你在某些边界内训练它，然后它在特定数量的任务上变得擅长，比如它擅长很好的对话，也许它能做文档理解，也许它甚至能生成一点代码，但你知道，我们在某种程度上知道它的能力是什么。

So it you know you sort of train it within some boundaries and then it gets good at a specific number of tasks like it's good at great conversation maybe it can do document understanding maybe it can even generate a little bit of code but you're kind of we know what its capabilities are to some extent

好的。

Okay.

嗯，当我们把它用于特定目的时，那就是狭义版本的 AI，对吧？更通用的 AI 将具备递归自我改进之类的能力。它可以编辑自己的代码以变得更好。它可以自我改进，或者拥有自主性。它基本上可以独立于你的直接命令行动，或者你给它一个非常笼统的命令，嗯，你知道，然后它就会去做各种超级复杂的子行动，比如你知道，也许甚至发明一个新产品，为它创建一个网站，然后为它设置一个代发货，然后你知道，去营销它，拿走所有收入，然后做账等等。我的意思是，我认为这在比如 3 到 5 年内是可能的。在 2030 年之前，我认为我们肯定会拥有那个，而且很可能要快得多。很可能快得多。

Um that's a narrow version of AI when we use it for a specific purpose right a more general AI is going to be one where it has things like recursive self-improvement It could edit its own code in order to get better. It could self-improve or like it would have autonomy. it could act independently of your direct command essentially or you give it a very general command um you know and it goes off and does all sort of sub actions that are super complicated like you know maybe even invent a new product and create a website for it and then set up a drop ship for it and then you know go and market it and take all the income and then do the accounts and so on. I mean, I think that's kind of plausible in say 3 to 5 years. Before 2030, I think we'll definitely have that and might well be much much sooner. Could well be like a lot sooner.

天哪，这太疯狂了。那么，这如何挑战我们对自己作为人类、意识和智能的思考方式？比如，它会改变我们对什么是人类、什么不是人类的看法吗？

Oh my gosh, that's so crazy to think about. So, how does that challenge the way that we think of us as humans and consciousness and intelligence? Like, is it going to change the way that we think of what's human and what's not?

是的，当然。我的意思是，我们将不得不应对一种新型软件，对吧？历史上，软件一直是输入进去，输出出来。你在 Airbnb 上输入一些东西，它给你一个搜索结果页面，或者你知道，你在 Spotify 上播放一段音乐，你知道，它按预期输出。到目前为止，软件关乎实用性。它是功能性的。目标是让它以非常可预测的方式一遍又一遍地做同样的事情。它真的很有用，对吧？我们从中创造了数万亿美元的商业价值，以及令人难以置信的社会人际连接和知识等等。实际上，这太不可思议了。但我们即将踏上数字旅程的一个全新阶段，计算机现在正在学习说我们的语言。对吧？你不再需要学习计算机的语言来与它互动了。

Yeah, for sure. I mean, we are going to have to contend with a new type of software, right? Historically, software has been input in, input out. You type something on Airbnb and it gives you a search result page or, you know, you play a piece of music and it, you know, on Spotify and that, you know, comes out as intended. And software so far has been about utility. It's been functional. The goal is for it to do the same thing over and over again in a very predictable way. And it's been really useful, right? We've created trillions of dollars of business value out of it and unbelievable social human connection and knowledge and all the rest of it. It's been incredible actually. But we're just about to embark on a completely new phase of the digital journey where computers are now learning to speak our language. Right? You don't have to learn the language of a computer to interact with it anymore.

我的意思是，你可以。当程序员仍然很重要，但它实际上能理解你的语言。当你进行语音输入时，它能理解你给它的音频，语调、音调变化、音量、节奏、停顿，对吧？它将越来越能够看到你所看到的。

I mean, you can. It's still important to be a programmer, but it can actually understand your language. It can understand the audio that you give it when you do a voice input, the intonation, the inflection, the volume, the pace, the pauses, right? It will increasingly be able to see what you see.

所以，你不仅拍张照片，它能识别照片里有什么，它还会对你浏览器、桌面或手机上所做的一切有完整的屏幕理解，一帧一帧地理解。你在刷 Instagram，它实时看到你所看到的一切，和你聊你在 Instagram、TikTok 上互动的内容，你在读新闻，无论你在做什么。所以，这是一个深刻的转变。

So, not only will you take a picture and it will recognize what's in the picture, it will have complete screen understanding of everything that you're doing in your browser or on your desktop or on your phone, frame by frame. You're browsing Instagram, it's seeing everything that you're seeing in real time, talking to you about the content of what you're interacting with on Instagram, on TikTok, when you're reading the news, whatever you're doing. So, that's a profound shift.

是的。

Yeah.

在某种程度上，它不再是一个工具了，对吧？它真的开始捕捉到关于人之为人的一些有意义的东西，因为它使用的语言和我们用来相互理解的语言是一样的，对吧？所有那些在人际关系的社会联结中发生的微妙线索，突然之间会出现在这种动态中，这真的是一件大事，我认为即使我们已经有了几年的大语言模型，人们可以在开源中把玩它，我仍然不认为人们完全 grasp 到这一转变将有多么重大。

In what it that's not a tool anymore, right? That is really starting to capture something meaningful about what it means to be human because it's using the same language that we use to understand one another, right? All those subtle cues that take place in social bonding of human relationships suddenly it's going to be present in that dynamic and it's a really it's a really big deal and I think even though we've had a couple of years of large language models being out there and people get to play with it in the open source I still don't think people are quite grasping how big a deal this shift is about to be.

所以这个问题没有计划，呃，但它在我脑海里。你提到你现在是无神论者，而且你一直是开发 AI 的核心人物，AI 正变得越来越像人。你觉得这是否呃稍微改变了你对宗教的看法？

So this question wasn't planned uh but it's you know on my mind. You you mentioned that you're an atheist now and you know you've been central to developing AI and AI is becoming more humanlike. Do you feel like that has um altered your perspective about religion a bit?

你知道，我认为宗教有很多了不起的地方。宗教是人们编造故事的一种方式。在我看来，这是为了呃理解一个复杂而令人困惑的世界。

You know I think there are many amazing things about religion. Religion was a way that people made up stories. This is in my opinion in order to um make sense of a complex world that was confusing.

是的。

Yeah.

然后科学出现了，表明我们确实可以通过经验观察和一个可证伪的过程来理解世界：提出假设、进行实验、观察结果、接受同行评审，然后在人类知识的总集上迭代。这就是我们如何产生非常可靠的已知事实，因为它们被反复测试。当根本性的事情发生时，我们改变整个范式。所以我认为，你知道，我不清楚宗教在理解物理世界，甚至越来越在理解社会世界方面还能扮演什么角色。我认为，你知道，如果你看看过去一个世纪甚至几个世纪伟大诗人、哲学家、音乐家、讲故事的人、创作者、发明家的贡献，他们大多数与宗教无关，然而他们教给我们最多关于我们自己和我们的社会。对吧。是的。如果你真的想理解我们作为一个民族、作为人类是谁，我们的社会如何运作，不幸的是，你不再求助于宗教了。

And then science came along and showed that actually we really can understand the world through empirical observation and a falsifiable process of coming up with a hypothesis, running some experiments, observing those results, subjecting them to peer review and then iterating on the corpus of human knowledge. And that's how we've produced known facts that are very reliable because they keep getting tested over and over again. And when something fundamental happens, we change our entire paradigm. So I think that, you know, it's unclear to me what role religion plays anymore in understanding the physical world or even increasingly understanding the kind of social world. I think that you know if you look at the contributions in the last say century or even couple centuries from great poets and philosophers and musicians, storytellers, creators, inventors, most of them have nothing to do with religion and yet they've taught us most about ourselves and our societies. Right. Yeah. If you really want to understand who we are as a people, as humans, how our societies function, you don't turn to religion anymore, unfortunately.

是的。

Yeah.

所以，我的意思是，显然有些人会不同意这一点，我完全尊重他们的意见，但这就是我这些天来的立场。

So, I mean, some people will obviously disagree with that and full respect to them for their opinion, but that that's kind of where I land on it these days.

是的。所以，有趣。好的。那么，让我们继续谈谈 Inflection AI。你在 2022 年共同创立了它，你的愿景是开发人们可以更容易交流的 AI。你为什么觉得需要开发这个？

Yeah. So, interesting. Okay. So, let's move on to Inflection AI. You co-founded it in 2022, and your vision was to develop AI that people could communicate with more easily. Why did you feel like that needed to be developed?

嗯，当时我刚离开 Google。呃，我一直在做 Lambda，那是 Google 的对话式搜索 AI，我们最终从未推出。后来它作为 Bard 推出，然后变成了 Gemini。我有点沮丧，因为我觉得这些技术已经准备好进入黄金时段了。它们已经准备好接受来自现实世界的反馈。它们并不完美。它们会犯很多错误，但我们是技术创造者。我们必须把东西放出去，看看它如何落地，快速迭代，倾听人们怎么说。而当时我们在 Google 就是无法把事情做成，这令人沮丧。所以我意识到必须做这件事。是时候创办一家公司了。我和 Reed Hoffman 以及我的朋友 Karen Simony 创办了 Inflection，我们创造了 Pi，个人智能。呃，它是一个超级友好、温暖、呃，高情商的对话伴侣。呃，当时我认为它是最流畅、最高情商的呃，对话伴侣。它有一点个性。它有一点幽默感。而且，你知道，我认为那是一个有趣的时期，因为我们最终获得了相当数量的用户。我们有大约 100 万日活，约 600 万月活。但我意识到的主要事情是，有些人真的很喜欢这些体验。我的意思是，Pi 的平均会话时长是 33 分钟，每周 4.5 次。所以这排名相当高。我在 TikTok 之下，但你知道，相当高。没有多少体验能像那样。是的。

Well, we were at a time when I had sort of just left Google. Um, I'd been working on Lambda, which was Google's conversational search AI that we ended up never launching. It then got launched as Bard and then it became Gemini. And I was sort of frustrated because I was like, these technologies are ready for prime time. They're ready for feedback from the real world. They're not perfect. They make a lot of mistakes, but we're technology creators. we've got to put things out there and see how it lands, iterate quickly, listen to what people have to say. And it was just frustrating that we just couldn't get things done at Google at that time. And so I realized it has to be done. It's time to start a company. Me and Reed Hoffman and my friend Karen Simony started Inflection and we created PI, the personal intelligence. Um, it was a super friendly, warm, um, high emotional intelligence conversational companion. Um, at the time it was, I think, the most fluent and the most kind of high EQ uh, conversational companion. It had a bit of personality. It had a bit of humor. And, you know, I I think that it was an interesting time because we ended up getting decent number of users. We had like a million DA about 6 million monthly active users. But the main thing I realized is that some people really love these experiences. I mean the average session length for Pi was 33 minutes 4.5 times a week. So that ranks it right up there. I was under Tik Tok but you know right up there. And there's not many experiences like that. Yeah.

我知道现在很多 AI 用于工作，对吧？我们用 ChatGPT 来帮助我们工作，对吧？你觉得情感 AI 和与 AI 建立情感陪伴的重要性是什么？

I know that a lot of AI right now is used for work, right? We're using ChatGPT to help us with work, right? What do you feel is the importance of emotional AI and having like emotional companionship with AI?

是的，我的意思是到目前为止你说得对，ChatGPT 确实是一种工作和生产力 AI，它很棒。让你获取知识，帮你重写东西等等。但在某种程度上，它只解决了我们人类需求的一小部分，或者说一个重要部分，对吧？我的意思是，我们需求的另一部分是理解世界、获得情感支持、理解我们的社会复杂性，对吧？我的意思是，我们想在一天结束时发泄一下，对吧？我认为人们在社交媒体上做的一大部分事情就是发布东西，以便被听到。人们希望感觉有人在关注他们，希望感觉自己被理解，希望自己说的话有意义，或者也许他们只是想理清一些事情。所以，在我们几周前在 Microsoft AI 推出的新 copilot 中，我们既关注 IQ，所以它异常准确，最大限度地减少了我们谈到的那些幻觉，可以访问实时信息，非常快速和流畅，但我们也关注 EQ，因为我们希望它是一个善良的伴侣。我们希望它是你的 hype man。我们希望它支持你，对吧？我们希望它站在你这边，在你的团队中，在你需要的时候照顾你。我认为人们低估了这种社会特权的重要性。你知道，这是让中产阶级孩子获得巨大优势的事情之一：总是有父母在身边，总是有一个稳定的家庭，有兄弟姐妹，或者你知道，甚至有一个最好的朋友，在你需要的时候随时可用。

Yeah, I mean so far you're right, ChatGPT is is really a kind of work and productivity AI and it's great. Gives you access to knowledge and helps you rewrite things and so on. But in a way that sort of addresses a small part of our or one important part of our human needs, right? I mean the other part of our needs are to make sense of the world, to receive emotional support, to kind of have understanding of our social complexity, right? I mean we we want to come at the end of the day and vent, right? A big part of what I think people are doing on social media is posting stuff so that they can be heard. People want to feel like someone else is paying attention to them, that they want to feel like they're understood and that they're saying something that's meaningful, or maybe they just want to work through something. So, in the new co-pilot that we've launched just a few weeks ago, um, at Microsoft AI, we focused both on the IQ, so it's exceptionally accurate, minimizes those hallucinations we were talking about, has access to real-time information, really fast and fluent, but we've also focused on the EQ because we want it to be a kind companion. We want it to be your hype man. We want it to back you up, right? We wanted to be in your corner on your team looking out for you there when you need it. I think people underrate how important that kind of social privilege is. You know, that's that is one of the things that gives middle class kids a huge leg up to always have a parent there, to always have a stable family with a sibling or, you know, even a best friend available to you whenever you need it.

我想我们现在就来聊一聊其中的一些体验，并通过 Copilot 让更多人接触到。

And I think that we're going to just touch on a little bit of those experiences now and make that available via Copilot.

是啊，AI 能带给我们的未来听起来太棒了。就像你说的，那些稍微弱势一些的人，比如父母是移民，或者父母没受过太多教育，现在他们突然就和所有人一样拥有同等的潜力，因为他们有同样的 AI 伙伴。你想象未来我们如何与机器协作？你想象未来的个人 AI 会是什么样子？

Yeah, it sounds so amazing, like the future that AI can bring us. And to your point, people who are a little bit underprivileged, like maybe they have an immigrant parent or a parent who's not very educated. Now suddenly they have just as much potential as everybody else because they have the same AI companion. How do you imagine us working with machines in the future? Like how do you imagine personal AI to be like in the future?

是的，我想你会说：“嘿，Copilot，或者不管你管你的个人 AI 叫什么。我卡住了，这个问题的答案是什么？我该怎么处理？”你知道，我需要去买这个东西，你能帮我搞定吗？我下周有没有空做这件事？基本上你会用它来组织你的生活，花更少的时间被行政事务分心，更多时间追求你的好奇心，对吧？尤其是在语音模式下，我觉得你很快就会忘记这其实是一项技术，感觉就像你在和一位老师进行很棒的对话，这位老师有耐心、不评判、不会贬低你、有无限的时间给你，并且会沿着你选择的路径陪你探索某个复杂的问题。而且不管你回去说多少次“你能再解释一遍吗？”都没关系。

Yeah, I think you're going to say like, "Hey, Copilot or whatever you call your personal AI. Um, I'm stuck. What's the answer to this? How should I navigate that?" You know, I need to go buy this thing. Can you take care of it for me? Will I be available in a week to do this thing? Or like, you know, you're going to basically use it as a way to kind of organize your life and spend less time, you know, sort of being distracted by administration, um, and more time pursuing your curiosities, right? Especially in the voice mode, you know, it, I think you very quickly just forget that this is actually a piece of technology and it feels like you're just having a great conversation with a teacher that is patient, you know, non-judgmental, doesn't put you down, has infinite time available to you, and will wander off on the path that you choose to take through some complicated question. And it doesn't matter how many times you go back and say, "Can you explain that again?"

我没太听懂。你是什么意思？

I didn't quite understand that. What do you mean?

没问题。你可以继续以完全个性化的方式深入探索。这将是我们见过的最大的提升。因为这是有代价的，你知道，在社交上，我要转身去找一个对某件事很了解的朋友，拿起电话说：“嘿，哥们，你能给我讲讲这个吗？”显然我的朋友会做，但那里有一个障碍，对吧？它不是即时的。我真的是在请求什么，或者对我来说，在一天结束时，当我感到沮丧和烦躁时，向朋友倾诉是有代价的，而我想以最好的状态出现在我最好的朋友面前，开心、明亮、充满活力，我仍然会和他们有那些情感时刻。并不是说他们不会在那里。

No problem. You just get to keep digging in a completely personalized way. That is going to be the greatest leveling up we have ever seen. Because it's expensive, you know, socially it costs for me to turn around to one of my friends who knows a lot about something and pick up the phone and say, "Hey man, can you walk me through this thing?" And obviously my friends will do it, but there's a barrier there, right? It's not instant. I'm really asking for something, or it's a cost for me to unload on my friend at the end of the day when I'm frustrated and irritated, and I want to show up to my best friend in the best possible way and like have fun and be bright and energetic, and I'm still going to have those emotional moments with them. It's not that they're not going to be there.

是的。

Yeah.

只是现在它降低了获得支持、知识和信息的门槛，这就是提升所在。

It's just that it now lowers the barrier to entry to get access to support and knowledge and information, and that is what is going to be the level up.

是的。所以过去的技术，呃，我们看到它实际上让我们变得更孤独，对吧？每个人都说有孤独流行病。社交媒体让我们更孤独。你觉得这波新的 AI 和这种个性化的 AI 实际上会帮助我们变得不那么孤独，甚至可以说取代人际连接吗？

Yeah. So with technology in the past, uh, we've seen it actually make us become more lonely, right? Everybody says there's this loneliness epidemic. Social media makes us more lonely. Do you feel like this new wave of AI and personalized AI in this manner is actually going to help us become less lonely and replace human connection, so to speak?

每一波新技术都会带来文化转变，对吧？它不是静态的，对吧？它会产生一些影响。社交媒体可能确实让我们感到更孤独和孤立。我们必须剖析这一点。为什么？那是什么？呃，人们报告感到孤独。但我认为另一种思考方式是，人们感到被社交媒体评判。他们感到被排斥。他们感到不够好。

Every new wave of technology leaves us with a cultural shift, right? It doesn't, it's not just static, right? It's going to have some impact. And it may be the case that social media has made us feel more lonely and isolated. And we have to unpack that. Like, why is that? What is that? Uh, people report feeling lonely. But another way of thinking about that, I think, is that people feel judged by social media. They feel excluded. They feel not good enough.

为什么？

Why is that?

因为我认为 Instagram 在突出某种视觉审美方面确实占主导地位。我需要强壮、有肌肉，对吧？我需要让我的时尚到位。天哪，看看她多会做饭。她在做令人难以置信的食物。看看她怎么照顾孩子，他怎么照顾孩子，你知道吗？就像我只看这些完美的漫画形象，它让我感到不安全，对吧？所以我认为这就是核心。而在那之下是一个 UI，一个奖励某种注意力的 UI，对吧？我认为你可以创造新的 UI，你可以创造新的奖励机制、新的激励措施来抑制那种精神，实际上创造更多的广度，而且我认为在某种程度上 TikTok 是那种的进化，因为你在 TikTok 上不会得到那么多那种东西。它有点，你知道，很多评论甚至更健康。它们充满了笑话和支持，你知道，那种友好的玩笑，而 YouTube 只是恶意的。我记得以前的 YouTube 评论看起来真的很粗鲁，对吧？

Because I think Instagram really dominated in highlighting a certain visual aesthetic. I need to be big and have muscles, right? I need to get my fashion on point. Oh my god, look at how good a cook she is. She's making incredible food. Look at how she's taking care and he's taking care of their kids, you know? Like I'm just looking at all these perfect caricatures and it's making me feel insecure, right? So I think that's what's at the heart of it. And what sits beneath that is a UI, a UI that rewards a certain type of attention, right? And I think you can create new UIs, you can create new reward mechanisms, new incentivizations to dampen that spirit and create more kind of breadth actually and more and actually I think in a way TikTok is an evolution of that because you don't get as much of that on TikTok. It's kind of, you know, a lot of the comments even are like much more healthy. They're like full of jokes and support and, you know, kind of friendly banter, whereas YouTube was just spiteful. I remember the YouTube comments back in the day seemed really like rough, right?

呃，显然像 X，我的意思是，我不知道谁还在用 X，但那个已经变成了粪坑。

Um, and obviously like X, I mean, I don't know who uses X anymore, but like that that's turned into a cesspit.

所以，我只是认为你必须要有意识且深思熟虑。我相信当我们推出新的 AI 体验时，社会上会有一些部分被它搅动。我的工作和毕生事业就是对这些后果保持高度关注，并尽快回应，修剪边缘，重塑它，铸造它。这就像雕塑，你必须全神贯注，并对其实时后果负责。

So, I just think you have to be conscious and deliberate. I'm sure that when we put out our new AI experiences, there are going to be some parts of society that get ruffled by it. And my job and my life's work is to be super attentive to those consequences and respond as fast as possible to trim the edges and reshape it and cast it. It's just, it's like a sculpture and you have to just be paying full attention and taking responsibility for the real-time consequences of it.

那么现在你是微软 AI 的 CEO，你们大约一年前推出了 Copilot。你能给我们讲讲 Copilot 在过去一年里如何改变了微软用户的工作方式吗？然后我们再聊聊有什么新东西。

So now you are CEO of Microsoft AI and you guys launched Copilot about a year ago. Can you walk us through how Copilot transformed work for Microsoft users over the past year? And then we'll get into what's new.

是的。所以，是的，我们在工作环境中推出了 Copilot，在某种程度上也在个人环境中，我说某种程度上。你现在要让我惹上麻烦了。好吧，让我来，让我，让我重新组织一下。呃，所以我们大约一年前推出 Copilot，很大程度上是一个实验，看看人们在工作环境中喜欢如何与对话式 LLM 互动。看到 Copilot 现在嵌入 Microsoft 365 真是令人难以置信。所以在 Windows、Word、Excel 上，有那么多工具和功能，让你在文档上下文中直接问你的 Copilot 来总结内容、创建表格、创建日程或比较两个复杂的想法。所以我认为它在那里产生了巨大影响。它有点不太被谈论，因为它已经如此嵌入，你知道，现在它已经变成第二天性。它就像人们日常工作流程的一部分。

Yeah. So yeah, we launched the Copilot in the work setting and to some extent in the personal, I say some extent. You're going to get me in trouble now. Okay, let me roll. Let me, let me, let me wind this back up. Um, so we launched Copilot about a year ago very much as an experiment to see how people like to interact with conversational LLMs in the work setting. It's pretty incredible to see how Copilot is now embedded in Microsoft 365. So on Windows, on Word, on Excel, there's so many tools and features that enable you to just ask your Copilot whilst you're in the context of your document to summarize something or create a table or to create a schedule or to compare two complex ideas. And so I think it's had a massive impact there actually. And it sort of doesn't get talked about so much because it's been so kind of embedded and, you know, now it's become like second nature. It's like part of people's everyday workflow.

是的，太酷了。就像我之前用过 Copilot，就像你说的，感觉太自然了。我觉得我们都准备好了拥有一个 AI 伙伴。呃，那么跟我们谈谈 Copilot 的未来会带来什么。

Yeah, it's so cool. Like I've used Copilot before and to your point, like it just feels so natural. Like I feel like we're all just so ready to have an AI companion. Uh, so talk to us about the future of what Copilot is going to bring.

嗯，Copilot 的下一波是这种更加亲切、更加流畅、更加自然的互动风格。呃，所以它快速、流畅。呃，UI 非常优雅。我们做了很多工作来削减复杂性。我认为人们想要平静的、呃，你知道，更干净的界面。

Well, the next wave for Copilot is these sort of flavor of much more personable, much more fluent, much more natural interactions. Um, so it's fast, it's sleek. Um, it's very elegant in the UI. We've done a lot of work to pair back the complexity. I think that people want calming, um, you know, cleaner interfaces.

我觉得有时候我看着电脑，会看到各种颜色、形状、不同的信息架构，就像一团模糊，我只需要宁静和简洁。所以，我们真的在设计 Copilot，让它去为你获取完美的信息精华，并带入你那种干净的 feed 中，真正创建一个你可以专注于对话的 UI。所以答案被设计得简洁、简短、幽默，带点趣味，有点活力，既有趣又能从中学习。因此，这种互动式的来回交流是我们设计它的主要动机之一。

I feel like when I look at my computer sometimes I see colors of every type, shapes, different kinds of information architectures and it's just like this blur and I just need like serenity and simplicity. So, we're really designing Copilot to go out and fetch the perfect nuggets of information for you and bring them into your kind of clean feed and really create a UI where you can focus on conversation. So the answers are designed to be pithy, short, humorous, a little bit of spice, a bit of energy, and it's fun to chat to as well as learn from at the same time. And so that kind of interactive back and forth was a big part of the motivation for how we designed it.

你之前提到的情感部分，有融入其中吗？

Are you bringing some of the emotional piece that we were talking about before into this?

是的，它真的被设计得更有那种连接感。它会问你问题，或者如果你在语音模式下，它会主动倾听。所以它会发出嗯哼、不会吧或对这样的声音，在你说话时让你知道它在听、在关注、在保持对话进行。所以就是像这样的小细节。还有声音的语调以及它带来的活力，我认为这些与以往所见大不相同。

Yeah, it's really designed to have a bit more of that connection. It'll ask you questions or if you're in the voice mode, for example, it will actively listen. So it will go, it will kind of go uh-huh or no way or right whilst you're speaking to let you know that it's listening, it's paying attention, it's keeping the conversation moving. And so just little subtle touches like that. As well as like the intonation in the voice and the energy that it brings, those kinds of things are I think really quite different to what we've seen before.

在微软，你们还在 AI 相关领域有哪些其他进展？

Are there any other advancements that you're working on at Microsoft related to AI?

是的，有很多即将到来。我的意思是，随着时间的推移，你会看到不同类型的硬件平台。你会看到很多不同的个性化功能。所以，我认为越来越多的人会想给他们的 Copilot 起自己的名字。谁知道呢，未来某天，可能会有头像或视觉表示。所以，我们正在考虑很多不同的角度。

Yeah, there's a lot coming. I mean, like you're going to see a different kind of hardware platform, I think, over time. You're going to see a lot of different features in terms of personalization. So, I think increasingly people are going to want to give their co-pilots their own name. And who knows, one day in the future, might have an avatar or visual representation. So, we're thinking about a lot of different angles.

你认为 Copilot 从工具变成更像同事，还有多远？

How far off do you think we are from co-pilot being more than a tool and more like a co-worker?

我认为它会自然演变为更像同事，因为你希望它能填补你的空白，对吧？你知道，你认为自己有某些优势和弱点。我们中有些人更善于分析，有些人更有创造力，有些人更有条理。你可以把我们每个人想象成一把独特的钥匙，与我们的优势和弱点完美契合。我认为每个 Copilot 都会适应你独特技能组合的凹槽。所以，如果它适合你，那就意味着你和你的 Copilot 会像一对搭档。你们会像一股强大力量。我的意思是，谁知道呢？有一天你甚至可能一起去面试，因为就像你在雇佣我和我的 Copilot。我们是一对，你知道。

I think that it's naturally going to evolve to be more of a co-worker because you want it to be able to fill in your gaps, right? You know, you think you have certain strengths and weaknesses. Some of us are more analytical, some of us are more creative, some of us are more structured. You can think of each one of us as this unique kind of key that fits like a perfect lock with our strengths and weaknesses. And I think that each co-pilot is going to adapt to the grooves of your unique constellation of skills. And so if it fits to you, it kind of means like you and your co-pilot are going to be like a pair. You're going to be like a powerhouse. I mean, who knows? One day you might even go and do job interviews together because it's going to be like you're hiring me and my co-pilot. We're a pair, you know.

它很可能成为你的联合创始人，对吧？我预计很快人们就会宣称是他们和他们的 AI 创办了这家新公司。

It could well be your co-founder, right? I'm expecting anytime soon people to declare that it's like them and their AI starting this new company.

哦，我的天，这想想就让人脑洞大开。我甚至无法想象那样的世界。

Oh my god, that's like mind-blowing to think. Like, I can't even imagine a world like that.

你有没有担心过，比如 GPS 刚出来的时候？我当时还年轻，开车的时候，你知道，现在没有 GPS 我根本去不了任何地方。我太依赖它了。我只知道怎么像刚开始开车时那样做事，那时车里还没有嵌入 GPS，对吧？而且我再也不能像以前那样记住电话号码了。我只是担心 AI 会让我们变得更懒，也许更不创意。你担心它会对人类智能产生负面影响吗？

Do you have any concern like when GPS came out for example? I was just, you know, it was around the time when I was younger and driving and I, you know, can't for my life get anywhere without GPS now. I'm so dependent on it. I only know how to do things that I did when I first started driving and didn't really have GPS like embedded in my car, right? And I can't memorize phone numbers anymore the way that I used to. And I just am worried that AI is going to make us maybe more lazy, maybe less creative. Are you worried that it's going to impact human intelligence in a negative way?

我的意思是，人们也这样说过计算器，对吧？说它会让孩子在考试中作弊等等。但它并没有，它只是让我们更聪明，使人类能够进行更复杂的计算。所以我没有看到任何证据表明它让我们变得更笨。我的意思是，我们有海量的信息访问，我认为在某种程度上，这实际上让我们所有人都更宽容、更尊重和更善良。人们倾向于关注我们社会中的政治两极分化。但实际上从另一个角度想想。20 年前，随便挑一个。堕胎、宗教、性取向、性别、跨性别，我的意思是随便挑。所有这些都比现在落后了几十年。

I mean, people said that about the calculator, right? That it was going to lead to kids cheating in tests and so on and so forth. And it didn't like it just made us smarter, enabled us as humans to do more complex computations. And so I don't see any evidence that it's making us dumber in any way. I mean we have overwhelming access to information and I think that on one level that has actually made us all way more tolerant and respectful and kind. People tend to fixate on the polarization politically in our society. But actually think about it from the other perspective. 20 years ago, take your pick. Abortions, religion, sexuality, gender, trans I mean take your pick. All of those were decades and decades behind where they are now.

我们的世界现在多么明亮、美丽和多彩，我们总体上多么尊重和善良，这真是惊人。现在仍然有一些恐惧和仇恨的角落，你知道有很多这样的东西，但也有巨大的进步，我认为这种进步是我们能够获取关于彼此的知识、共同生活、共同成长、相互倾听的结果。我认为这将继续下去。

It is amazing how bright and beautiful and colorful our world is now and how respectful and kind we are on the whole. Now there are still pockets of fear and hatred and you know there's plenty of that but there's also massive massive progress and I think that progress is a function of us having access to knowledge about one another living together growing together hearing from one another. And I think that's going to continue.

所以，当谈到像 Copilot 这样的工具时，对吧，我的很多听众是企业家。他们正在向团队推广这个。总的来说，AI，很多人担心准确性和偏见问题。我们如何能更信任 AI？或者你觉得在我们完全信任 AI 方面还有更多工作要做吗？

So, when it comes to tools like Copilot, right, a lot of my listeners are entrepreneurs. They're rolling this out to their teams. AI in general, a lot of people are worried about the accuracy and the bias related to AI. How can we trust AI more? Or do you feel like there's still more work to do in terms of us fully trusting AI?

是的，还有更多工作要做，对吧？我在描绘一个美好的未来。这些东西要真正完美运行还需要一段时间。所以，你总是要仔细检查。你知道，现在还不要依赖这些东西。同时，你知道，不使用它们你就是傻瓜，因为它确实是信息访问和支持等方面的彻底革命。所以好消息是，如果你正在创业，或者试图弄清楚人生下一步，一切都可以开源获取。

Yeah, there's still more work to do, right? I'm painting a rosy picture of the future. It's going to be a while for these things to actually work perfectly. So, you've always got to double check it. You know, do not rely on these things just yet. At the same time, you know, you would be a fool not to use them because it really is a complete revolution in access to information and support and so on. So the good news is that if you're starting a new business or if you're trying to figure out your next move in life in general, everything is available open source.

嗯。

Mhm.

你可以在任何 API 上尝试任何模型。你经常可以访问源代码。并真正很好地理解前沿。你无法在开源中获得绝对的前沿。但你可以非常非常接近，我认为这会给任何人一个很好的直觉，了解这些东西如何对你的业务或创业或人生下一步有用。

You can try any model on any API. You can get access to the source code quite often. And really get a really good understanding of the cutting edge. You can't get the absolute cutting edge in open source. But you can get very very close and I think that will give anybody a good instinct for how these things can be useful to your business or to your startup or you know to your next step in life.

那么让我们转向一些未来预测。我知道微软正在做一些与可持续性相关的 AI 项目。你能和我们谈谈你们正在做什么吗？

So let's move on to some future predictions. I know that Microsoft is working on some AI projects related to sustainability. Can you talk to us about what you guys are working on?

是的，当然。所以我们实际上是地球上最大的可再生能源买家之一。这是公司长期承诺，到 2026 年实现净零排放，并碳负。所以回馈，到 2030 年从供应链中去除碳。所以为了做到这一点，我们也大量投资于新技术和新科学。

Yeah, sure. So we're actually one of the largest buyers of renewable energy on the planet. And that's a longtime commitment by the company to be net zero by 2026 and carbon negative. So giving back, taking carbon out of the supply chain by 2030. So in order to do that, we've also been massively investing in new technologies and new science.

例如，在电池储能和核聚变项目上大规模投资，在碳封存上——就是把碳从大气中移除。总的来说，我们长期以来一直把这当作优先事项。

For example, massive investments in battery storage and nuclear fusion projects, in carbon sequestration—so taking carbon out of the atmosphere. Across the board, we've been making this a priority for quite a long time.

嗯，谢天谢地，因为气候变化太重要了。那么，让我们回到播客一开始谈到的遏制问题。你能比较和对比一下，如果 AI 被遏制并且我们以非常积极的方式使用它，10 年、20 年后世界会是什么样子，对比 AI 没有被遏制、有点失控的情况？

Well, thank goodness, because climate change is so important. So, let's go back to this containment problem that we talked about right at the beginning of the podcast. Can you compare and contrast what the world would look like 10, 20 years from now if AI is contained and we use it in a really positive way versus AI not being contained and it sort of getting out of control?

你知道，我认为一种思考方式是，汽车已经被遏制了。

You know, I think that one way of thinking about it is that cars have been contained.

所以汽车已经存在了 80 年，我们有层层叠叠的法规，安全带、排放、你知道，挡风玻璃的抗拉强度、街道照明、汽车寿命结束后的材料处理、驾驶员培训。现在，有一个完整的遏制生态系统被建立起来，以防止，你知道，一个 13 岁的孩子开车穿过田野撞到牛之类的。

So cars have been around for 80 years and we have layers and layers and layers of regulations, seat belts, emissions, you know, windscreen tensile strength, street lighting, disposal of the materials after a car's life is over, driver training. Now, there's an entire ecosystem of containment built up to prevent, you know, a 13-year-old from driving through a field and crashing into a cow or whatever.

是的。你知道，这是一个需要时间演变的遏制基础设施。我们实际上做得相当好。汽车现在非常安全。就像飞机，就像无人机，你知道，无人机不是突然爆炸进入我们的世界，它们有遏制。有规则。你不能直接在时代广场飞无人机，对吧？你必须获得许可。你需要获得无人机执照。你知道，有些地方你根本不能飞，比如机场附近。所以这实际上并不那么复杂。我们很可能会成功地为这些东西设置边界，使它们对每个人都有净好处。

Yeah. You know, it's a cult infrastructure for containment that takes time to evolve. And we've actually done it pretty well. And cars are now incredibly safe. Just like airplanes, just like drones, you know, drones haven't just suddenly exploded into our world that, you know, they've had containment. There are rules. You can't just go fly a drone in Times Square, right? You have to get a permit. You need to get a drone license. You know, there are certain places that you can't fly them at all, like near airports. So this isn't actually that complicated. It's quite likely that we will succeed in putting the boundaries around these things so that they're a net benefit to everybody.

这实际上让我感觉好多了。真的，因为你知道 AI 是一个可怕的事情，就像所有这些变化正在发生，但听到你这样说真好，你是这一切的核心人物，真的相信，嘿，我认为会没事的，我认为我们能够遏制这个，事情总体上会是积极的。但是，你知道，权力现在随着 AI 有点去中心化了，对吧？很多人可以只是使用它并运行它，而且外面有一些坏苹果。那么，你对此有什么要说的？

That actually makes me feel a lot better. It really does, because you know AI is a scary thing to think about, like all these changes happening, but it's so good to hear from you, somebody who's been so central to it all, to really believe like, hey, I think it's going to be okay, I think we're going to be able to contain this and things will overall be positive. But how about the fact that you know power is sort of decentralized now with AI, right? A lot of people can kind of just use it and run with it and there's some bad apples out there. So, what do you have to say about that?

是的，这是一个棘手的问题。我的意思是，肯定有坏苹果，肯定有人会滥用它。这就是难题，我认为，我们有一个双管齐下的挑战。一是弄清楚民族国家和民主国家如何进入一个可以监管像我这样的强大、大公司的位置，他们可以让我们承担责任，他们可以让公众觉得他们有能力并且正在处理这件事——集中化，所以监管集中化的权力。然后第二个是，我们如何应对每个人都能在几秒钟内访问这个事实，我们希望他们——并不是我们不希望人们有访问权，我们希望人们在开源中拥有访问权，你知道，我认为重要的是要记住，到目前为止，我们还没有看到开源或大规模模型中出现任何灾难性的危害，对吧？所以所有这些都是猜测，每个人都可能完全错误。可能是我们实际上不会像我们想象的那样快速进步。可能是，你知道，我们想出了真正可靠的方法将安全性灌输到这个代码中。当然可能是这样，我们没有理由现在就开始减缓开源。完全没有，对吧？它需要继续，因为人们从中获得巨大的好处。同时，如果出了问题，它只是软件。所以有人可以复制它并重新发布并再次发布，它会传播得非常快。所以我认为这是一种我们尚未面临的新挑战。我认为人们经常忘记互联网是相当受监管的。所以并不是说互联网是这种自由放任的混乱开放领域，对吧？有一大堆东西你在网上找不到，或者你必须非常努力才能在暗网上找到非常丑陋的东西，而且是非法的，如果你被抓到，你会陷入深深的麻烦之类的。所以，并不是说，你知道，它会完全自由放任。而且，你知道，总的来说，我认为大多数人都想做正确的事。所以，这不是关于担心你的普通用户。这是关于极少数真正的坏苹果，正如你所说。

Yeah, that's a tough question. I mean, there are definitely bad apples and there are definitely people who will misuse it. And that's kind of the conundrum, I think, is that we have a two-prong challenge. One is figuring out how nation states and democracies get into a place where they can regulate the powerful, big companies like me, they can hold us accountable and they can make the public feel like they're competent and they're on the case—centralized, so regulating centralized power. And then the second is like how do we cope with the fact that everybody's going to have access to this in, you know, seconds and we want them to—like it's not like we don't want people to have access, we want people to have access in open source, you know, and I think the important thing to remember is that so far we haven't seen any catastrophic harms arising from open source or in the large scale models, right? So all of this is speculation, everyone could be totally wrong. It could be that we're actually not going to progress as fast as we thought. It could be that, like, you know, we come up with really reliable ways of instilling safety into this code. Certainly could be the case and there's no reason for us to start slowing down open source right now. None at all, right? It needs to continue because people get enormous benefit out of it. At the same time, if something were to go wrong, it's just software. So someone can copy it and repost it and post it again and it's going to spread super fast. So I just think it's a new type of challenge that we haven't yet faced yet. I think people often forget the internet is quite regulated. So it's not like this is the internet is this kind of free-for-all chaotic open domain, right? There's a whole bunch of things that you can't find on the web or you have to really work hard to get on the dark web and find pretty ugly stuff and it's illegal and if you get caught doing it, you're in deep trouble and stuff like that. So, it's not like, you know, it's just going to be a total free-for-all. And, you know, in general, I think most people do want to do the right thing. So, this isn't about worrying about your average user. This is about a tiny number of really bad apples, as you say.

是的。对我来说，听起来你是在说我们准备得很好。你知道，我们以前见过这些新技术。人类在过去 200 年左右一直在处理这些新技术。听起来你是在说你觉得我们对 AI 革命准备得很好。

Yeah. To me it sounds like you're saying like we're well prepared. You know, we've we've seen these new technologies before. Humans have been dealing with these new technologies over the last 200 years or so. And it sounds like you're you're saying like you feel like we're well prepared for the AI revolution.

我认为我们比那些散布恐慌的人让我们认为的要准备得更好。

I think that we are more prepared than the scare mongerers make us think.

这并不意味着一切都会很好。有很多工作要做，每种新技术对我们来说都是新的，对吧？就像定义上这是我们以前没见过的东西。当我写书的时候，我读到了第一个客运铁路的惊人故事。所以抱歉，第一次客运铁路火车在利物浦旅行。这是 1830 年。所以这是任何人第一次看到移动的车厢。它是轨道上的单节车厢。首相来庆祝。那里有很多人，市长和当地议员。他们对即将到来的东西如此兴奋，以至于他们实际上站在轨道上，没有让开。

That does not mean everything is going to be dandy. And there's a lot of work to do and each new technology is new to us, right? It's like by definition it's something we haven't seen before. When I was writing my book, I read about this amazing story of the first passenger railway. So sorry, the first passenger railway train that took a trip in Liverpool. And this is 1830. So the first time anybody has ever seen a moving carriage essentially. It was a single carriage on rails. And the prime minister came down to, you know, celebrate. There was tons of people there, the mayor and there was like the local MP. They were so excited by what was coming that they actually stood on the tracks and they didn't get out of the way.

天哪，当火车来的时候，它杀死了一群人，包括当地议员。

Oh my god, when the train came and it killed a bunch of people including the local MP.

天哪。

Oh my god.

所以它是那么陌生和奇怪，只是一个普通的移动车厢，他们无法弄清楚他们需要让开。所以这显然我确信再也不会发生了。但它有时给你一个指示，说明它可能有多么令人惊讶和奇怪，以及我们可能多么没有准备。现在显然我们不是生活在 1830 年代。我们受益于自那时以来的数亿项发明。所以我们对发明、创造技术、看到它扩散的过程了解得更多。我们甚至对过去几十年的数字技术了解得更多，对吧？我们看到了社交媒体的后果，对吧？我们看到了未加密的手机如何导致安全混乱。我们看到了黑客如何尝试各种不同的伎俩来破坏我们的安全和隐私等等。

So it was that alien and that strange just a regular moving carriage that they couldn't figure out that they needed to get out of the way. So that obviously I'm sure never happened again. But it gives you an indication sometimes of how kind of surprising and strange it can be and how we can be unprepared. And now obviously we're not living in the 1830s. We have the benefit of hundreds of millions of inventions since then. And so we understand a lot more about, you know, the process of inventing, creating technology, seeing it proliferate. We understand a lot more even about digital technologies in the last couple decades, right? We see the consequences in social media, right? We see how, you know, unencrypted phones, you know, cause security chaos. We see how you know hackers try all sorts of different tricks of the trade to kind of undermine you know our security and privacy and so on.

所以知识的积累一方面应该让我们感到乐观，因为我们有所准备。另一方面，我们也知道这是前所未有的时代，这些是非常新且根本不同的体验。所以我认为我们不应该自满。这将会是不同的。

So there's an accumulation of knowledge that on the one hand should make us feel optimistic that we are prepared. On the other hand, we also know that these are unprecedented times, and these are very new and fundamentally different experiences. So I don't think we should be complacent. This is going to be different.

你如何设想未来的工作？你觉得人们还会像现在这样拥有传统的朝九晚五工作吗？还是你觉得人类将能够更有创造力，更享受生活？你怎么想象？

How do you envision the future of work? Do you feel like people will have the traditional nine-to-five job that they have right now? Or do you feel like humans are going to be able to be more creative and enjoy their life more? How do you imagine that?

是的，我认为工作将会改变。它已经在改变了，对吧？我们已经远程办公。我们依赖设备。老实说，我一半的工作都在手机上完成，因为我经常旅行，总是打电话、发短信、使用消息和 Teams 等等。所以这将会非常非常不同。我认为在 AI 世界里，你会有一个伴侣陪伴你，记住你的任务，帮助你按时完成事情，帮助你保持组织有序，应对所有混乱。我认为这应该让你感到更轻松、更有准备，心理上更准备好去创造。这就是我们所需要的，因为常规工作将会消失。很多基本数字生活的苦差事将变得顺畅和容易得多。所以这将解放我们，让我们作为企业家能够创造。因此，我认为由于我们将拥有的额外时间，一些惊人的事物将会被发明出来。

Yeah, I think that work is going to change. It's already changing, right? We're already remote. We're on our devices. Honestly, I do half of my work on my phone because I travel a lot and I'm always making phone calls, sending text messages, using messaging and Teams and so on. So it is going to be very, very different. And I think in an AI world, you're going to have your companion with you, remembering your tasks, helping you get things done on time, helping you stay organized and on top of all the chaos. I think that should make you feel lighter and more prepared, mentally more ready to be creative. And that's what's going to be required of us because routine work is going to go away. A lot of the drudgery of elementary digital life is going to get a lot smoother and a lot easier. And so that's going to free us up to be creative as entrepreneurs. So I think some amazing things are going to be invented as a result of that extra time that we're going to have.

所以你不担心人类将不再有目标吗？

So you don't feel any worry like humans are not going to have purpose anymore?

我认为工作被发明出来是因为我们资源有限，我们必须以高效的方式组织自己以减少痛苦。那么当我们没有那么多负担，实际上资源将可供数百万人使用时，我们最大的挑战是弄清楚如何分配它，以及如何确保每个人都能获得。所以我不认为人类联系和对目标的需求与工作有内在联系。我认为许多人在我们做的无数其他事情中找到目标和激情，对吧？许多人也从工作中找到，但那将是一个巨大的转变，因为如果你在我描述的那种苦差事中找到激情，那么 20 年后你还会在那里。所以你必须认真思考这一点。但我认为这很令人兴奋。人们将能够找到许多许多新的目标，以及许多许多新的事情来度过他们的生活。

I think that work was invented because we had limited resources and we had to organize ourselves in efficient ways to reduce suffering. So what happens when we don't have as much of that burden and actually there is going to be resource available for millions of people and the greatest challenge we have is figuring out how to distribute it and how to make sure that everybody gets access. So I don't think there is something inherent about the human connection and need for purpose with work. I think many people find their purpose and passion in a gazillion other things that we all do, right? Many people also find it in work too and that is going to be a big shift because if you find passion in that kind of drudgerous work that I described then now you're going to be there in 20 years time. So you're going to have to think hard about that. But I think it's pretty exciting. People are going to be able to find many, many new purposes and many, many new things to do with their lives.

你觉得因为 AI 我们会活得更久吗？

Do you feel like we're going to live longer because of AI?

是的，我认为会。我不知道多久。我不是那种永生类型的人，但我们已经活得更久了，因为我们对健康状况有了更好的认识。想想有多少人因为大家认为吸烟没问题而死亡，对吧？多少生命被缩短，现在很少有人吸烟了，对吧？人们意识到酒精、不健康食物或久坐沙发的后果。仅这一点，再次，获取信息、科学证据证明这些确实能延长寿命。这些都是基本要求了。所以肯定会有这种提升，在 60 年后，当一群从青少年时期就认为健康生活是正常事情的人成长起来，而不是像我成长时那样，吸烟、喝酒和吸毒。所以显然还有空间容纳这些东西，但现在是不同的事情了。然后在此基础上，我们将有 AI 工具帮助我们以个性化方式真正理解文献，这样我们就能真正看到根据我们的肠道菌群我们可能需要什么样的营养。整个运动才刚刚开始产生影响。我认为它将会非常有影响力。

Yeah, I think so. I don't know how long. I'm not one of these live forever type people, but we're already living longer because we have a much better awareness of health conditions. Just think about how many people died because everyone thought smoking was okay, right? And how many lives were cut short and now so few people smoke, right? And people are aware about the consequences of alcohol or unhealthy food or sitting on the couch. Just that alone, again access to information, scientific evidence proving that these things actually do lead to longevity. That's all table stakes now. And so for sure there's this kind of bump that we're going to get in 60 years time when a bunch of people who've grown up just since their teens thinking that living a healthy life is the normal thing to do instead of how I grew up, which is like cigarettes and alcohol and drugs. So obviously there's still room for all that kind of stuff but it's a different thing now. And then on top of that, we're going to have AI tools that help us to really make sense of the literature for us in a personalized way so we can really see what kind of nutrition we might need given our gut biome. That whole sort of movement is only just starting to have effect. And I think it's going to be pretty impactful.

那么让我们转向创业。对于所有企业家来说，他们应该如何准备？他们现在应该做什么来利用 AI？

So let's move on to entrepreneurship. For all the entrepreneurs out there, how should they prepare? What should they be doing now to take advantage of AI?

嗯，它已经在发生了。我的意思是，所有工具都已经触手可及。在某些方面，这有点让人不知所措，因为它就在那里。没有什么阻止你。没有秘密来源。我的团队有一些零碎的东西可能不公开，但大部分，知识、诀窍、云服务、开源的东西、YouTube 视频，都在那里。所以，这是一个激动人心的时代。前几天我在签书会上，有人走过来。她 15 岁，向我展示了她一直在做的一个难以置信的项目。赚了一堆钱，和两个朋友一起用所有可用的公共工具拼凑起来，正在考虑辍学。这让我震惊。我认为如果你渴望成功，如果你准备好冒险，这就是机会。我对人们说的就是：年轻时冒险。冒险。我冒了很多风险。辍学、换专业、换科目、放弃工作、最大化你的副业、和一个你不确定是否要合作的朋友合作。去问问题。人们想帮忙。给他们发邮件，上门拜访。人们不再上门拜访了。过去，人们会在外面等。

Well, it's already happening. I mean, all the tools are already at our fingertips. In some ways, that's kind of an overwhelming thing because it's just there. There's nothing holding you back. There's no secret source. My team has some little bits and pieces here and there that might not be available, but most of it, the knowledge, the know-how, the cloud services, the open-source stuff, the YouTube videos, it's all there. And so, it is an electric time. I'm seeing someone came up to me at a book signing that I did the other day. She's 15 years old and she was showing me this unbelievable project that she had been working on. Made a bunch of money, strung together from all available public tools with two of her pals, thinking about dropping out of school. It blew my mind. And I think that is just like there if you're hungry and if you're ready to take risk. This is the thing I say to people: take risk when you're young. Take risk. I took a lot of risks. Drop out, change your degree, switch your subject, give up work, maximize your side hustle, partner with a friend that you're not sure about partnering with. Go ask a question. People want to help. Just ping them an email, doorstep them. People don't doorstep each other anymore. Back in the day, people would wait outside.

我甚至不知道那是什么意思。你知道，就像演出后或在剧院外面等某人，当他们……

I don't even know what that means. Do you know like it means like after a show or outside a theater like wait for somebody while they while

那曾经是件大事。那曾经是人们建立人脉的方式，对吧？他们会去参加活动，因为他们知道某人会在那里，然后尝试建立联系。

That used to be a big thing. That used to be how people did networking, right? They would go to an event because they knew that someone was going to be there and then try to build the connection.

物理联系很重要。找到那个时刻去握手，展示一个快速演示，给他们留个便条。这就是拼搏。这就是拼搏文化。如果你真的想做，你必须这样，每个人都在游戏中。所以，这是一个多么惊人的创造时代。去冒险吧。

Physical connection is huge. Like find that moment to shake someone's hand, show a quick demo, drop them a note. It's just hustle. It's just hustle culture. That's what you got to be on if you really want to do it and everyone's in the game. So, what an amazing time to be creative. Take that risk.

这太令人兴奋了，我能听出你声音里的热情。我觉得现在任何在听的人可能都感到非常激动，想要去探索，看看自己行业里有什么，然后亲自动手尝试。

It's so exciting, and I hear the passion in your voice. I feel like anybody listening right now probably feels so pumped to just explore, see what's out there related to their industry, and just get their hands dirty.

是的。因为我也这么做过，对吧？我退学了，换过好几次职业方向。我不怕向别人求助。我之所以能成功，真的是因为一些人在我很年轻的时候、在恰当的时刻给了我难以置信的机会。帮我进了好学校——我后来去了牛津。帮我找到了很好的第一份工作。在我 19 岁创办电话心理咨询服务时帮助了我。所以真的是别人把你托举起来，你必须建立这些关系。要非常感谢和赞扬那些这样做的人，然后也要继续把它传递给其他人。有一件事是，我会回复很多 LinkedIn 消息——我不会说全部回复，因为那是撒谎，但我确实回复很多。我肯定会回复所有邮件。

Yeah. Because I did that as well, right? I dropped out of my degree. I switched up my careers a bunch of times. I wasn't afraid to ask people for help. And it was really the people — the reason I've been successful is because a few people gave me unbelievable opportunities at the right moment when I was really young. Helped me get into a great school — I ended up going to Oxford. Helped me get a great early job. Helped me when I started my telephone counseling service when I was 19. So it's really other people that end up lifting you up, and you have to form those relationships. Give so much thanks and praise to those who do that, and then keep giving it to other people too. One thing is I reply to a lot of my LinkedIn — I won't say I reply to all of them because that would be a lie, but I do reply to a lot. I certainly reply to all my emails.

人们总是给我发冷邮件。我可能帮不了他们，但我会回复，会给他们指个正确的方向之类的，因为这才是真正重要的。当你看到有人多走一步去努力争取，我真的很欣赏，我认为这就是前进的方向。

And people cold email me all the time. And I might not be able to help them, but I'll reply and I'll point them in the right direction or something because that's really what matters. And when you see someone who's taken that extra step to try and hustle it, I really rate that and I think it's the way forward.

我的听众知道，我采访过很多有权势的人。我发现一个人越有权势，就越乐于助人，越真正在意回馈、给出反馈、保持人情味。因为最终发生的是，他们可能时间更多，因为他们已经成功了、功成名就了，而真正回馈对他们来说意义重大。

And my listeners know that I interview such powerful people. I find that the more powerful the person, the more helpful they are and the more they actually care about giving back and giving feedback and being personal. Because what ends up happening is that they probably have more time because they're already successful and made it, and it means a lot to them to actually give back.

是的。而且我也非常幸运。我显然做对一些事情，但运气占了很大一部分。你通过向别人求助、寻求帮助、建议和反馈，某种程度上创造了自己的运气。我一路走来学到的一切，都是假设自己一无所知。这是关键——我不怕看起来无知，直到今天，在我的团队面前，我也经常问愚蠢的问题。很多时候我最终看起来像个白痴——大概五次里有一次，甚至四次里有一次。我会说些什么，然后想，哦，那真是个蠢话，哎呀。但其他很多次，会变成，哦，那正是每个人都在想的事情。然后我的团队看到我犯错、看起来像个傻瓜，这会鼓励他们也去问愚蠢的问题。

Yeah. And I just got super lucky as well. I've obviously done some things right, but the luck is a huge part of it. And you kind of make your own luck by asking people for favors and help and advice and feedback. I've just learned everything along the way by assuming that I know nothing. That's the key thing — I'm not embarrassed to look, even to this day, in front of my team, I'll often ask the stupid question. And quite often I end up looking like an idiot — probably one out of five times, or maybe even one out of four. I will say something and I'm like, oh, that was a clanger, oops. But then a bunch of other times it will be like, oh, that was the thing that everyone was thinking. And then my team seeing me trip and just look like a doofus, that encourages them to then go and ask the stupid question.

然后我们都不那么爱评判了。没有那种职业上的废话，比如你必须一本正经、规规矩矩。你打破了那些障碍。彼此以人性相待。深度协作。把羞耻放到一边。羞耻是最无用的情绪之一。我很抱歉我们进化出了这种东西。坦率地说，我认为它来自宗教，但那是另一个故事了。我只是想，为什么我们要背负着羞耻这个包袱？没有必要感到羞耻。只要认识到自己犯了错，做出纠正，迈出下一步。

And then we're all just less judgmental. There's none of this professional nonsense like you have to be all formal and straight. You just break down those barriers. Be human to one another. Collaborate deeply. Like set aside shame. I mean, shame is one of the most useless emotions. I'm so sorry that we evolved to carry this thing. Frankly, I think it comes from religion, but that's another story. But I just think, why have we got — why are we carrying around this baggage of shame? There's no need to be ashamed. Just recognize when you tripped up, make a correction, take the next step.

所以，你谈到了领导团队。你在 DeepMind、Google，现在在 Microsoft 领导过很多团队。你遵循的一些关键领导原则是什么？也许谈谈作为领导者，你迄今为止遇到的最大挑战之一是什么？

So, you've been talking about leading your team. You've led so many teams at DeepMind, Google, now Microsoft. What are some of your key leadership principles that you live by? And maybe talk about what is one of the biggest challenges that you've had so far as a leader?

是的。我的风格往往非常开放和协作。我喜欢听到很多很多不同的声音。强烈的观点是健康的，只要它们基于智慧和谦逊。它们需要有证据，需要被引用，需要引用某种历史例子或数据或经验案例，或者需要明确标注为猜测。我也不介意猜测。我经常对人们说的一件事是：传递信息时带上元数据。这么基本的事情。对别人说，我对这个非常确定，因为我查过这个事实。我对这个非常不确定，或者我在寻求对这个的反馈，或者这只是供你参考。所以让彼此知道我们交流的状态是有帮助的。我经常看到冲突源于两个人对交流期望的误解。所以这是一点——清晰的沟通，基于证据，充满谦逊，非常协作和开放。但我也非常果断。从根本上说，我的工作是梳理所有复杂性并做出决定，因为对团队来说，没有清晰度是最糟糕的。即使我们最终走错了方向，那也完全没问题，因为我们会校准。我们有反馈、迭代和回顾的流程，那真的会很有帮助。我挣扎过的一件事是，在更大的组织中，自然因为有几万或几十万人，有不同动机的不同人。在初创公司，每个人都是要么做要么死，也许有一两个不是，他们会被轮换掉，但他们在那里是为了这个目标。而在更大的组织里，并不总是这样。有些人只是满足于他们所处的节奏。所以，我的一个学习是学会激励那些人，找到一种实用的流程让他们参与进来，让他们变得有用。

Yeah. So, my style tends to be very open and collaborative. I like to hear lots and lots of disagreeing voices. Strong opinions are healthy, provided they're grounded in wisdom and humility. They need to be evidenced. They need to be referenced. They need to reference some sort of historical example or some data or some empirical case, or they need to be explicitly named as a guesstimate. I don't mind that either. One thing I often say to people is deliver your message with metadata. Such a basic thing. Say to the person, I'm really sure about this because I've looked up this fact. I'm really not sure about this, or I'm looking for feedback on this one, or this is just an FYI. So letting each other know what the status of our exchange is helps. Often I see conflicts arise from a mis-expectation about what two people are expecting in an exchange. So that's one thing — clear communication that is evidence-based with a lot of humility, very collaborative and open. But I'm also very decisive. Fundamentally my job is to sift through all the complexity and make a call, because there's really nothing worse than not having clarity for the team. Even if we end up going in the wrong direction, that's totally fine because we'll calibrate. We have a process for feedback and iteration and retrospective, and that will really help. One thing that I've struggled with is in larger organizations, naturally because there's tens or hundreds of thousands of people, there's different people with different motivations. In a startup, everyone is do or die, and maybe there's one or two that aren't and they get rotated out, but they're there for it. And in a bigger organization, it's not always true. Some people are just happy in the rhythm that they're in. And so, one of my learnings is to learn to energize those people and find a practical flow to get them in and get them being useful.

嗯，我想尊重你的时间，因为我们快没时间了。所以，我最后问你的一个问题是，你希望在与 AI 和整个世界相关的方面留下什么遗产？

Well, I want to be respectful of your time because we're running out of time here. So, one of my last questions to you is, what is the legacy that you hope to leave behind related to AI and the world in general?

哦，天哪。我不考虑遗产。我考虑未来。但你说得完全对。让我想想。这对我来说很难。我希望我能真实地践行我的价值观，让人们知道我在努力做什么，给人们机会去不同意。但根本上要快速行动，去实验这种 AI 伴侣和情感智能 AI 的新方法，我真的想尝试以善良和同情心来帮助引导这个新时刻。这对我来说意义重大。

Oh, man. I don't think about legacy. I think about the future. But you're totally right. Let me think about that. That's a hard one for me. I hope that I'm able to live my values authentically and let people know what I'm trying to do, give people an opportunity to disagree with it. But fundamentally move at pace to experiment with this new approach of AI companions and emotionally intelligent AIs, and I really want to try and help steward this new moment with kindness and compassion. That's what means a lot to me.

嗯，我真的很享受这次对话。我大概进行过 10 次关于 AI 的对话。这是迄今为止我最喜欢的一次。

Well, I really enjoyed this conversation. I've had probably 10 conversations about AI. This is by far my favorite one.

而且我觉得你让我对 AI 不再那么害怕，也让我对它了解了很多。那么，我最后要问所有嘉宾的两个问题，呃，你不必围绕 AI 来回答，可以完全发自内心。我们的年轻人和创业者今天能做的一件可操作的事是什么，让他们明天更赚钱？

And I feel like you made me feel not scared about AI and I feel like I know so much more about it. So the last two questions that I ask all my guests, uh, you don't have to make it based on AI, it could just come from your heart. What is one actionable thing our young and profiters can do today to become more profitable tomorrow?

嗯，我觉得最重要的一定是自我批判。你知道，复盘是关键。向你的朋友、家人寻求反馈，尤其是向那些你认为会给你一些带刺意见的人寻求反馈。你不必全盘接受，但至少要对全局有所了解，并养成不玻璃心的习惯。

Um, I think the most important thing has got to be to be critical of yourself. You know, retrospectives are key. Ask for feedback from your friends, your family, and especially ask for feedback from people who you think, you know, are going to give you something a little bit barbed. That you don't have to take it, but just at least be aware of the landscape and get in the habit of not having a thin skin.

这会让你在面对接下来的一切时更坚韧、更强大。

That will make you tougher and stronger for everything that you got to encounter next.

我想我需要听到这句话。嗯，那你会说你在人生中获利的秘诀是什么？

I think I needed to hear that. Um, and what would you say is your secret to profiting in life?

嗯，学习和谦逊。比如我犯过很多错误，现在也还一直在犯错，我惹恼过别人，伤害过别人，也把人惹毛过，我不喜欢这样。我讨厌这样。嗯，这让我内心煎熬。但它是我的燃料，因为那是我每天需要变得更好的信号。我知道我能做的一件事就是，我有这个一步步变好的过程。我从第一天起就这么做，我就是喜欢这样。这就是我活着的意义，学习。

um learning and humility. Like I have made so many mistakes and I still make mistakes all the time and I've upset people. I've hurt people. I've pissed people off and I don't like doing it. I hate it. Um it grinds at me. But it's my fuel because that's the signal I need to get better every day. And I know that the one thing I can do is I have this process of getting better step by step. and I've been doing it since day and I just I love it. That's what I live for, learning.

太棒了。大家可以在哪里了解更多关于你和你所做的一切？

Amazing. And where can everybody learn more about you and everything that you do?

嗯，我在 LinkedIn 上。很遗憾，我不在 Instagram 或 TikTok 上，但嗯，显然我也非常相信我们的 Copilot AI。所以，你可以在 iOS、Android 上下载，或者访问 copilot.microsoft.com。

Um well, I'm on LinkedIn. I'm not on Instagram or Tik Tok, unfortunately, but um obviously I'm also a huge believer in our copilot AI. So, you can download that in iOS, Android, or copilot.microsoft.com.

好消息。我们的很多 YAP 听众都在 LinkedIn 上。我们一直在谈论 LinkedIn。所以，我会把你的链接放进去。

Good news for you. A lot of our YAP listeners are on LinkedIn. We talk about LinkedIn all the time. So, I'll put your link in