Evan Spiegel 谈 Snapchat 起源与 AR 未来

大家好，欢迎收听 Futurology。我是 Dawn Nakagawa，本期节目的嘉宾是 Evan Spiegel，Snapchat（现更名为 Snap）的创始人。Snap 成立于 2012 年，当时 Evan 22 岁。他创立 Snap 是为了解决当时社交媒体中存在的一种扭曲现象：平台允许人们发布内容，而这些内容会永久留存。于是，越来越多的人开始呈现一个并非真实或本真的自我。Evan 认为这是技术带来的扭曲，因此他创立了 Snap，一个让照片可以消失的平台，这种 ephemerality（短暂性）能给人带来某种自由。多年后，Evan 又在试图解决一种新的扭曲。Snap 正专注于打造增强现实体验，通过这种方式模糊线上与线下的界限。如今，技术因消耗人们的注意力、将他们从世界中抽离、远离朋友和家人而备受诟病。那么，你如何应对这个问题？Evan 相信，可以将计算世界带入现实世界，利用增强现实创造共享体验。让我们开始吧。以下是我与 Evan Spiegel 在 Futurology 上的对话。Evan Spiegel，欢迎来到 Futurology。

Hi, and welcome to Futurology. I'm Dawn Nakagawa, and in this episode, I'm speaking to Evan Spiegel, the founder of Snapchat, now called Snap, which was founded in 2012 when Evan was 22 years old. He founded Snap in order to address a distortion he saw in social media at the time. Platforms would allow people to post content, and that content stayed there forever. And so, more and more people were presenting a version of themselves that wasn't really true or authentic. Evan saw this as a distortion of technology, and he founded Snap as a platform where photos could disappear, and that ephemerality would give a kind of freedom to people. Many years later, Evan is trying to address a new distortion. Snap is focusing on creating augmented reality experiences, and through this, blurring the lines between online and offline. Today, technology gets a lot of flak for consuming people's attention and taking them out of the world in a way, taking them away from their friends, and away from their families. So, how do you address that? Evan believes that you can bring the world of compute into the analog world and create shared experiences using augmented reality. So, let's get into it. Here's the interview between me and Evan Spiegel on Futurology. Evan Spiegel, welcome to Futurology.

Dawn，非常感谢你的邀请。在洛杉矶这个一月的明媚日子里，我真的很期待这次对话。今天气温可能到 80 华氏度，感觉不错。

Dawn, thanks so much for having me. I've really been looking forward to this on this glorious day in January in Los Angeles. I think we might hit the 80s today, so this is good.

是的，在一月份，天气很好。我们有一阵子没见了，我真的很期待这次对话，既能叙旧，也能探讨一些我从未有机会与你聊的想法。我觉得 Rue 和 Institute 的很多热情我们都有共鸣，因为你长期担任我们的董事会成员，对此我们非常感激。我们有机会探讨我们所做的事情和想法，但很少有机会了解你的组织如何演变，或者你个人如何随之成长，以及你如何看待这些事情。这非常重要，因为你拥有一个非常成功的全球社交媒体平台，它既是变化的容器，也在推动变化。所以，我很高兴有机会和你聊这些。

Yes. In January. It's been great. It's been a while since I've seen you, and I'm really excited about this conversation to catch up, but also to explore with you some ideas that I don't think I've ever had the opportunity to talk to you about. I mean, we share I think a lot of the passion that Rue and Institute has because you've been on our board for so long, for which we are very grateful. And we have, you know, some opportunities to explore what we do and what we think about, but we don't have an opportunity very often to explore how your organization is evolving or how you're evolving through that and how you think about those things. And it's so important given that you have a very successful social media platform that spans the globe and therefore is both a receptacle for the changes that are happening, but also driving that change. So, I'm really excited to get the opportunity to talk to you about these things.

谢谢，非常感谢你的邀请。应该会很有趣。

Well, thanks and thanks so much for having me. Should be fun.

我想我们就从你的起点开始聊起。你当时是一位非常年轻的 CEO。显然，你受到启发创立了一家公司，我想知道最初是什么激励你这样做？是某个时刻让你意识到这就是你想做的事，还是有人启发了你？

So, I thought we'd start just where you started. So, you know, you were a very young CEO. Obviously you were inspired to found a company and I was wondering what inspired you to do that in the first place? Was there a moment in time when you knew this is what you wanted to do or was there somebody out there who inspired you?

信不信由你，我确实有工程背景，但当时我读的是产品设计专业，属于机械工程系的一部分。现在它已经是一个独立的专业了，这很酷。我认为，总的来说，设计实践在重要性上得到了更多关注，同理心在产品设计中的作用现在也比我在大学那个“远古时代”得到了更好的理解。但我在大学里真正喜欢做的一件事就是动手造东西。所以，我大学时住在对门的室友 Bobby，我们开始一起做东西。早期我们做的最大的一个项目叫 Future Freshman，花了我们大概 18 个月开发了一个非常复杂的软件，帮助人们申请大学，结果除了我妈妈之外根本没人用，尽管 Bobby 和我都有正在申请大学的弟弟妹妹。所以我们得到了早期的市场反馈——可能不太合适。但不久之后，我们就开始捣鼓 Snapchat 的原型，当时它其实叫 Picaboo。为了回顾一下那个年代，当时的桌面社交媒体非常流行。我们正从需要数码相机拍照、插到电脑上、再上传到桌面社交媒体（比如 Facebook）的阶段过渡。手机刚刚开始流行，App Store 也才起步。我记得 Instagram 是一年前推出的。但当时非常清楚的一点是，社交媒体的永久性和公开性正在改变人们的沟通方式，因为人们在发布内容时感到巨大压力。他们知道内容会永远存在，会被评判，会得到公开可见的点赞和评论。实际上，当时（而且我认为现在大多数社交媒体上仍然有）公开的好友列表。所以每个人都非常在意自己有多少朋友，并且需要交更多朋友。因此，当时的社交媒体，尽管号称是为了社交，实际上却让像我们这样的大学生对自己分享的内容感到很大压力。在这样的背景下，我们开始开发 Picaboo 的原型，它能让消息消失。这会让对话感觉更像面对面交流，对吧？因为你们来回发送图片，是视觉化的。再说一次，这暴露了我的年龄，但那时通过短信发送一张图片需要一两分钟，非常慢，用短信进行视觉沟通非常困难。我们发明了一种快速发送图片的方法。所以，这种组合——快速发送图片、打开应用直接进入相机（邀请你创作）、以及默认删除图片（除非你想截图保存）——彻底改变了当时人们的沟通方式，我认为这极大地缓解了人们感受到的公开社交媒体压力。

Believe it or not, I did have an engineering background, but I was in the product design program which was part of the mechanical engineering program at the time. Now it's its own major which is really cool. I think, you know, design in general the practice of design has just gotten a lot more attention and focus in terms of its importance and the role of empathy in designing products I think is now much better understood than kind of that ancient history when I was in college. But one of the things that I really love doing was just making stuff in college. And so, Bobby who was a friend of mine who lived across the hall from me in college, we started just building things. One of the biggest things we built early on was called Future Freshman, which took us maybe 18 months to develop this really sophisticated piece of software to help people apply to college that literally nobody used except for my mom despite the fact that Bobby and I both had younger siblings who were applying to college. So, we got some early market feedback that maybe it wasn't a fit. But we soon thereafter started playing around with the prototype for Snapchat, which was actually called Picaboo at the time. And to kind of situate us back way back then, desktop social media at the time was very popular. Back then we were just transitioning from needing to take photos on a digital camera, plug them into your desktop, and upload them to desktop social media to Facebook at the time. And mobile phones were just becoming popular. The App Store was just getting started. I think Instagram had launched a year earlier. But what was very clear in that moment in time was that the permanent and public nature of social media was really changing the way that people communicated because they felt so much pressure in terms of what they put online. They knew it would be there forever. They knew it would be judged. It would get likes and comments that were visible publicly. There's actually, and I think there still is on most social media, a public friends list. So, everyone was really cognizant of how many friends they had and needing to make more friends. And so, social media at the time, even though it was purportedly designed to be social, actually made people like us, in college, feel a lot of pressure about what we were sharing online. And so, in that context, we started working on this prototype for Picaboo that would just allow your messages to disappear. That would make conversations feel a lot more like you were having them face-to-face, right? They're visual because you're sending pictures back and forth. And again, I mean, this dates me, but back then sending a picture via text message took a minute or two. It was really slow. And it was very hard to communicate visually with text message. We invented a way to send images really quickly. And so this combination of being able to send an image very quickly, opening the app into the camera, so it invited you to create, and then having the image delete by default unless you wanted to screenshot and then save it, just changed the way that people were communicating at the time and I think was really just a welcome relief from the public social media pressure people were feeling.

这是一个有趣的思考角度。所以，在早期，隐私和 ephemerality（短暂性）是一个非常刻意的决定。但当时这些做法收到了褒贬不一的评价，对吧？Snap 因为“消失”功能受到了很多批评。你当时是如何回应这些批评的？你觉得随着时间的推移，情况发生了怎样的变化？

That's an interesting way to think about it. So that was a very deliberate decision very early on for both privacy and ephemerality. And those things were received with mixed reviews though at the time, right? Snap was getting a lot of criticism for this disappearing thing. But how did you respond in the moment to the criticism of that and how do you feel that has evolved over time?

嗯，我认为任何新事物都会引发疑问或阻力，这很正常。

Well, I think it's normal with anything new that people ask questions or there is pushback.

我的意思是，在 Snapchat 之前，你放在互联网上的几乎所有东西都永远安全，对吧？一切都被存档了。你的每一次对话、每一张照片，所有东西都被永久存档。而那时人们还没有真正开始关心隐私，理解数据最小化的影响，明白如果我们不尊重隐私或设计服务来尊重隐私，会产生真正重大的后果，尤其是在人工智能时代，对吧？如果你收集所有这些信息，从积极方面看，你可以个性化服务，让它们对人们更有用；但从消极方面看，也可能操纵人们。所以我认为人们对隐私和数据最小化重要性的认识和理解，直到大约 5 到 10 年前才真正认真开始，对吧？那时，如果你还记得马克·扎克伯格那句关于世界开放透明的名言，那正是我们生活的时代。每个人都要公开透明地发布一切——他们所有的个人隐私数据。所以，当我们说“不，实际上我们认为隐私很重要”时，确实存在一些怀疑。隐私和进行私密对话的能力是牢固关系的基础。你可能会告诉最好的朋友或配偶一些你不会告诉全世界的事情。这对建立关系非常重要。所以，我认为你是对的。当时确实有怀疑，因为我们在谈论隐私和数据最小化的重要性，而互联网的其他部分却在谈论永久、开放、透明、永远。这对我们来说，与我们所看到的大多数人与朋友和家人交流的方式并不相符。

I mean, before Snapchat, virtually everything you put on the internet was safe forever, right? Everything was archived. Every conversation you had, every photo, everything was archived forever. And this was before people started really caring about privacy, understanding the impact, you know, of data minimization, understanding that if we don't respect privacy or design services to respect privacy, there are really meaningful implications, especially now in the age of artificial intelligence, right? Where if you collect all this information, you can then, on the positive side, personalize services to make them more relevant to people, but on the negative side, also manipulate people potentially, right? And so I think people's understanding and realization of the importance of privacy and data minimization didn't really kick in in earnest until maybe 5 or 10 years ago, right? At that time, if you recall the famous Mark Zuckerberg quote about the world being open and transparent, that was really the moment we were living in. Everyone was just going to post everything openly and transparently—all their personal private data. So, I think there was some skepticism when we said, "No, actually we think privacy is important." That privacy and the ability to have private conversation is the foundation of strong relationships. You may tell something to your best friend or your spouse that you wouldn't tell the whole world. And that is really important to building relationships. So, I think you're right. There was skepticism because we were talking about the importance of things like privacy and data minimization at a time when the rest of the internet was talking about permanent, open, transparent, forever. And that for us didn't really reconcile with the way we saw most people communicating with their friends and family.

社交媒体可能是完美照片、视频或非常重要公告的归宿。但与朋友分享日常的中间时刻——牙缝里的食物，或者人们说的那些美丽故事：“天哪，我住院了。我绝不会在社交媒体上公开贴出自己在病床上的照片让全世界看到。但我想和家人分享，我想和朋友分享我的康复之路，这对我来说非常重要。我不想要那种公众关注，但我需要分享。”所以，我认为 Snapchat 成为了这种真实、而且坦率地说更频繁的分享的归宿，分享所有那些不完美的中间时刻。如果你看看我们构建 Snapchat 的方式，当人们与朋友分享故事时，它会引发对话。人们会跟进说：“你还好吗？”或者“怎么了？”或者“那家餐厅怎么样？看起来很有趣。”而那种对话才是让人们更亲近的东西。

Social media was maybe the home for the perfect photo or video or a really important announcement. But sharing with friends the everyday in-between moments—food stuck in your teeth, or the beautiful stories of people saying, "Gosh, I wound up in the hospital. I would never post a photo of myself in a hospital bed online on social media publicly for the world to see. But I wanted to share that with my family. I wanted to share my road to recovery with my friends, and that was really important to me. I didn't want that public attention, but I needed to share that." So, I think Snapchat became the home for this authentic and frankly more frequent sharing of all the in-between moments, the moments that aren't perfect. And if you look at the way we architected Snapchat, when people share a story with their friends, it sparks a conversation. People follow up and say, "How are you doing?" or "What's going on?" or "How was that restaurant? That looks fun." And that conversation is what brings people closer together.

没有点赞或公开评论只是故事的一个元素。我们设计故事的另一个强大之处在于我们按时间顺序排列它们。当时社交媒体上的所有内容，现在很多情况下仍然是按倒序排列的。所以你去查看社交媒体信息流，会看到生日派对的结尾，然后是中间，然后是开头，这毫无意义。所以我认为故事带来的另一个重大变化是我们把所有内容按时间顺序排列。这正好符合人们在日常生活中自然讲故事的方式。所以你看到这个趋势：我们不断观察人们已经在用什么方式交流？他们如何舒服地表达自己？然后我们如何在技术中反映这一点，而不是设计一些新技术让人们不得不改变生活去适应。对我们来说，始终是真正理解人们想要如何与朋友沟通和分享，然后设计技术来实现这一点。

Not having likes or public comments on stories was only one element. The other thing that was really powerful about the way we designed stories is that we put them in chronological order. Everything on social media at the time was and still is in many cases in reverse chronological order. So you would go look at the social media feed and you'd see the end of the birthday party and then the middle and then the beginning, which makes no sense. So I think another big thing that changed with stories was that we put everything in chronological order. And that just fits with the way people naturally tell stories in their day-to-day lives. So you're seeing this trend where we constantly look at what are the ways people are already communicating? How do they feel comfortable expressing themselves? And then how can we reflect that in technology, rather than designing some new technology that people then have to change their lives to meet. So for us, it's always about really understanding the way people want to communicate and share with their friends and then designing technology to enable that.

你早期还说过另一件事，关于人们实际上想用图像进行交流的视觉语言。你是我最早听到这么说的人之一。当然，现在已经变成了一个视觉世界。我们确实用图像、表情符号之类的东西交流，对吧？像文本这些东西变得不那么重要，我们的视觉世界成为了我们表达自己的方式。平台是如何适应并随着这一点演变的？

There was something else that you said early on too that was about the visual language that people wanted to actually communicate in images. And again, you were one of the first people I'd ever heard say that. And of course, it has very much become a visual world. We do communicate in images and emojis and things like that, right? These things like text becoming less important and our visual world becoming the way we express ourselves. How has the platform adapted and evolved with that in mind?

好问题。我希望我能把功劳归于自己。我觉得从洞穴壁画之类开始，人类就非常视觉化，这是我们真正的超能力之一。如果你看看人类的视觉皮层，我们理解视觉信息的能力非常惊人。我们在视觉上交流了太多东西。就我们理解人们感受的方式而言，在他们开口之前，仅仅通过看一个人的脸，你就能理解他们那一刻的感受。所以，就降低交流障碍而言，视觉语言跨越了所有不同的文化。视觉语言是人类非常擅长的事情，所以它成为我们今天交流的核心并不让我惊讶。但使这成为可能的重大变化是智能手机上联网摄像头的诞生。在智能手机出现之前，我们没有始终连接互联网的摄像头。很难即时分享图像或视频。现在很难体会到，因为一切变化太快，但 15 年前，仅仅通过来回分享图像和视频来交流的想法几乎是闻所未闻的。你的数据套餐不支持。

What a great question. I wish I could claim credit for that. I feel like from the cave paintings or whatever, humans are so visual and it's one of our real superpowers. If you look at the human visual cortex, our ability to understand visual information is just extraordinary. We communicate so much visually. In terms of the way we understand how people feel, before they even say a word, just by looking at someone's face, you can understand how they're feeling in that moment. So, in terms of reducing that barrier to communication, visual language cuts across all different cultures. Visual language is something that humans have adapted so well to do that it's not a surprise to me that it's central to the way we communicate today. But the big change that made that possible was the creation of a networked camera on a smartphone. Up until the smartphone arrived, we didn't have cameras that were always connected to the internet. It was very difficult to share an image or a video in the moment. It's hard to appreciate now given how quickly everything has changed, but 15 years ago, the idea that you could just communicate by sharing images and videos back and forth was almost unheard of. Your data plan wouldn't support it.

所以，我觉得看到智能手机上的联网摄像头现在让人们能够以一种更接近我们一直以来沟通方式的方式进行交流，这非常令人兴奋。它发挥了我们处理视觉信息的能力，而不是在触摸屏上打字。这并非人类与生俱来的能力，尽管它确实用到了我们的对生拇指。

So, I think it's been so exciting to see the way that the networked cameras on smartphones have now enabled humans to communicate in a way that is actually much more akin to how we've always communicated. It plays to our strengths, in terms of our ability to process visual information rather than typing out some text on a touchscreen. That's not really innate to who humans are, although it does use our opposable thumbs.

你在增强现实方面投入了相当大的资源。对你来说，这如何是我们在这个世界上使用的视觉语言的一种自然演变？

You've been making pretty big investments in augmented reality. How is that, for you, a kind of obvious evolution of this visual language we use in the world?

好问题。我认为增强现实是一个很大的总括性术语，它表达的理念是：我们应该尝试将计算融入我们周围的世界，而不是设计那些将我们带离世界的计算机。如今，当你使用台式电脑、笔记本电脑甚至智能手机时，你都在低头看屏幕。那个屏幕是不透明的。你看不到屏幕之外的世界。你被锁定在那个电脑屏幕上。一些新的虚拟现实技术也是如此。你戴上头显，离开现实世界，去往别处。这过去几十年计算技术的大方向一直是基于屏幕的，真正把你带离周围环境。增强现实反映了人们想要使用计算机的方式：它不是把你带离周围世界、让你在使用时与朋友隔绝，而是让你扎根于现实世界，并且你可以和朋友一起在那个时刻使用它。这是计算领域一个非常大的转变。人们为此努力了很长时间，但这非常困难。直到最近，都很难看到那个未来会是什么样子。但今年我们推出了 Specs。它们是我们的消费级增强现实眼镜，一副轻量级的可穿戴眼镜，配有透明镜片。这让你能够在周围世界中看到计算。不是坐在屏幕后面或低头看智能手机屏幕，而是将计算嵌入到世界中的那些体验里。更疯狂的是，如果你的朋友也戴着这副眼镜，你们可以看到同样的东西并一起互动。例如，如果你在进行设计评审，查看一辆新车的设计，你们可以一起绕着那辆车走，一起修改它，抓住它，移动它。这种通过技术在现实世界中的协作让我们非常兴奋，因为这是一种发挥人类优势的技术。你开始以与现实世界互动相同的方式使用计算机。不需要学习新东西，比如键盘、鼠标或触摸屏，通过增强现实和我们的 Specs，你只需抓取东西。你以与物理世界互动相同的方式与计算互动。

What a great question. I think augmented reality is sort of this big umbrella term for the idea that we should try to integrate computing into the world around us, rather than designing computers that take us out of the world. Today, when you're using a desktop computer, a laptop, even your smartphone, you're looking down at a screen. That screen is opaque. You can't see the world beyond it. And you are locked into that computer screen. Same with some of this new virtual reality technology. You put on this headset, you leave the real world, and you go somewhere else. That has been the general direction of computing for the last couple of decades, which is screen-based and really takes you out of your surroundings. Augmented reality reflects the way people want to use computers: rather than something that takes you out of the world around you, separates you from your friends when you're using it, it grounds you in the real world, and you can use it with your friends together in that moment. That's a really big shift in computing. People have been working on this for a very long time, but it's very difficult. Until recently, it's been hard to see what that future could look like. But this year we're launching our Specs. They're our consumer augmented reality glasses, a lightweight wearable pair of glasses with see-through lenses. That allows you to see computing in the world around you. Rather than sitting behind a screen or looking down at your smartphone screen, you can embed that computing in those experiences in the world. And what's even crazier is that if your friend is wearing the glasses, you can see the same things and interact with them together. For example, if you're in a design review looking at the design of a new car, you can walk around that car together, work on it together, grab it, move it around. That collaboration in the real world through technology is something we're profoundly excited about, because it's technology that plays to our strengths as humans. You start using a computer the same way you interact with the real world. Instead of having to learn something new, like a keyboard and a mouse or a touchscreen, with augmented reality and our Specs, you can just grab stuff. You interact with computing the same way you interact with the physical world.

除了 Specs，还有其他方式可以体验增强现实吗？

Apart from Specs, are there other ways that we could experience augmented reality?

如今已有数亿人通过智能手机在 Snapchat 上使用增强现实。我们在 Snapchat 中有所谓的“镜头”，这是一种小小的增强现实体验，可以改变你周围的世界，或者让你在周围世界中玩游戏。但在手机上使用增强现实非常受限。屏幕很小。你必须用手拿着，用拇指与之互动。这在一定程度上激励我们在十多年前开始研发眼镜，因为我们意识到，如果我们能把数亿人喜爱并每天在手机上使用的增强现实体验，真正带入世界，让它变得沉浸，不是在小屏幕上，而是真正嵌入你周围的世界，不是用手拿着、用拇指玩的东西，而是你可以真正与之互动、随身移动的东西，那对我们来说将无比令人兴奋。

Hundreds of millions of people are already using augmented reality today on their smartphones in Snapchat. We have things called lenses in Snapchat, which are little augmented reality experiences that can transform the world around you or allow you to play games in the world around you. But using augmented reality on a phone is so constrained. It's this tiny little screen. You've got to hold it with your hand, use your thumbs to interact with it. That's part of what inspired us more than a decade ago to start working on glasses, because we realized that if we could take this experience that hundreds of millions of people love and do every day with augmented reality on their phone, but actually bring it into the world, make it immersive, not on a tiny screen, but actually embedded in the world around you, not something you hold with your hands and play with with your thumbs, but something you can actually interact with and move around with, that to us is incredibly exciting.

如今人们已经在使用我们 2024 年发布的上一代 Specs。我们只向开发者销售了这些产品。开发者们为眼镜构建了各种各样的体验。有人最近发布了一个化学实验室。所以你可以在客厅里拥有一个完整的化学实验室，进行模拟反应并学习化学原理。另一个人制作了一个镜头，可以让你看到所有不同的分子结构，而且是 3D 的。对我来说，我以前化学学得很差。那本来会对我理解共价键如何运作有很大帮助。还有人制作了简单的镜头，戴上眼镜就可以观星，勾勒出所有星星和星座的轮廓。人们现在用 Specs 创造的东西真是太棒了。有些人甚至制作了有趣的新工具，戴上 Specs 只需看着灯就能开关它。人们真的在思考计算与现实世界环境之间的相互作用，并用 Specs 来创建两者之间的界面。

People already today are using the last generations of specs that we released in 2024. We've sold those just to developers. So, developers have been building all sorts of different experiences for glasses. Someone just recently released a chemistry lab. So, you can have, in your living room, a full chemistry lab, and you can do simulated reactions and learn how chemistry works. Somebody else made a lens where you can see all the different molecular structures in 3D. For me, I was a terrible chemistry student. That would have really helped me understand how covalent bonds work. People have also made simple lenses where you can put on the glasses and stargaze, outlining all the stars and the constellations. It's extraordinary what people are creating right now with Specs. Some people even have fun new tools where you can wear Specs and just look at the light and turn it on and off. People are really thinking about the interplay between computing and their real-world environment and using Specs to create that interface between the two.

当你想到增强现实时，我喜欢这个理念：它带你进入世界，而不是把你从世界中带走、推入数字世界。你觉得我们还有其他方式在弥合数字世界与现实世界之间的鸿沟吗？

When you think about augmented reality, I love this idea of it taking you into the world as opposed to taking you from the world and pushing you into the digital world. Do you feel like there are other ways in which we're bridging the gap between the digital worlds and the real world?

我认为我们一直在努力做到这一点。很早以前，我们很幸运有一位社会学家在 Snap 工作。

I think we're trying to do that all the time. One of the very early on, we were so fortunate to have a sociologist work at Snap.

他的基础性工作——他叫 Nathan Jurgenson——核心就是“数字二元论”这个概念。他提出的哲学是，我们一直把线上世界和线下世界当作两个独立的地方，但它们其实是一体的，彼此互动。如果我们在生活方式、服务和产品开发中认识到数字世界和线下世界其实是同一个世界，我们的处境会好得多。这很大程度上启发了我们思考如何开发自己的服务。比如按时间顺序排列故事，或者像面对面交谈那样进行短暂对话。我们越认识到这一点，就越能塑造技术，让它适应我们已经生活在其中的世界、我们已经习惯的世界、以及几千年来我们一直在与之互动的世界。总的来说，我认为这有助于我们采用技术并适应它。

His foundational work, his name is Nathan Jurgenson, was really around this notion of digital dualism. He basically put forward the philosophy that we continue to conceptualize the online world and the offline world as separate places, and they are not. They are actually one and the same. They interact with each other. We would be much better off in terms of the way we live and develop services and products if we recognize that the digital and offline worlds are actually one and the same. That really inspired a lot of the way we think about developing our service. Putting stories in chronological order or having ephemeral conversations that are just like face-to-face conversations. The more we recognize that, I think we can help shape technology to fit the world we already live in, that we're already used to, that for thousands of years we've been interacting with. Overall, I think that helps in terms of the way we adopt technology and adapt to it.

Berggruen 研究所经常处理的一个大问题是，技术远远领先于我们的思想。我们所有的机构，无论是教育、治理还是其他，都深陷在 20 世纪工业经济的思维模式中，还没有赶上数字时代。部分原因在于语言和经验的鸿沟——机构一直不太擅长以技术变革的速度来吸收它。两者之间存在现实差距。我认为，那些从模拟世界到数字世界架起桥梁、创造出几乎介于两者之间的空间的东西，能让我们用可能还不具备的语言更清晰地理解，但通过体验，我们实际上可以同时属于两个世界。这将为我们提供机会，去塑造真正适应我们所处世界的机构。这种数字二元论，从数字二元论走向一个更像光谱的东西，因为那就是我们现在生活的状态。我们的世界不只有模拟，也从不只是模拟或只是数字，它们永远是两者兼具。然而，我们仍然没能以那样的速度去调整我们的机构——甚至远远不够。感觉要做到这一点，没有一场断裂是不可能的。我在想，你正在做的投资以及增强现实这个概念，能否帮助我们开始更清晰地理解新机构和新思想是什么样的。有没有办法用这些工具去探索那些空间？超越今天任何人想到的东西。你的组织里有人在思考这些吗？

One of the big issues that the Berggruen Institute deals with a lot is that technology is so far ahead of our ideas. All of our institutions, whether it's education or governance or whatever, are really trapped in this 20th century industrial economy kind of thinking, and they haven't caught up with this digital age. Part of that is a language and experience gap between those who—the institutions haven't been very good at absorbing the change at the pace that it's coming. There's a reality gap between the two. I think things that bridge those worlds from the analog to the digital, and create those almost interstitial spaces that allow us to understand more clearly in language that maybe we don't have, but through experience we can actually be part of both worlds, will give us the opportunity to shape institutions that are actually adapted more to the world we are living in. This sort of digital dualism, from digital dualism to something that is more of a spectrum, because that is where we are living right now. Our worlds aren't just analog, they're never just analog and just digital, they're always both. Yet we still haven't been able to adapt our institutions at the rate that—not even close. It feels like in order to do that, we're not going to be able to do it without a rupture. I was thinking about how the investments you're making and this idea of augmented reality could help us start to more clearly understand what the kind of new institutions and new ideas are. Are there ways we could use these tools to explore those spaces? Something beyond what anybody's thought of today. Are there people in your organization who are thinking about that?

我觉得这太有意思了。我知道 Berggruen 研究所思考和投资的一个领域是协商民主。我觉得这真的很棒。几年前我们做了一个叫“全美一室”的项目，把具有统计意义的全美代表聚集到一个房间——或者说几个房间，大约 500 多人。对我来说，它的强大之处在于我们可以创造体验，创造能把人们以那种方式聚集在一起的平台。但今天，如果你想想普通领导人或政治家是如何获取信息的，他们被拥有特定世界观的顾问和捐赠者包围着。他们上社交媒体，接触到大量病毒式内容或最吸引眼球的内容。我认为这真的会改变他们对选民面临的问题、加州人或美国人面临的问题的看法。所以，我认为现在比以往任何时候都更重要。我热爱民主。我热爱我们可以帮助改变国家轨迹和方向的想法。过去 250 年美国取得的成功是前所未有的。所以，我认为我们的机构在人类进步方面——与人类历史上任何其他时代相比——确实做对了一些事情。但我确实认为我们处在一个独特的时刻：领导人比以往任何时候都更难与普通加州人或普通美国人产生共鸣，因为他们没有现成的工具。他们一半时间要花在向捐赠者筹款上，另一半时间在社交媒体上互动，听到的世界观有时并不符合大多数美国人或加州人的感受，而只是代表了最吸引人或最离谱的内容。所以，我认为现在比以往任何时候都更需要——尤其是在民主制度下——领导人必须主动寻找与更广泛选民互动的方式。我认为协商民主是一种非常有趣的方式，它汇集了各种不同的观点，并放慢了政策制定过程和思考过程。这样就不会只被病毒式传播或吸引眼球的内容驱动，而是真正对选民的诉求做出实质性回应。

I think that's so interesting. I know that one of the areas the Berggruen Institute has thought about and invested in is deliberative democracy. I think that's really interesting. A couple years back we worked on a project called America in One Room and helped bring together a statistically significant representation of all of America into one room, or a couple rooms, about 500 and some odd people. To me, what was so powerful about that is that we can create experiences. We can create platforms that bring people together in that way. But today, if you think about how your average leader or politician is getting information, they're surrounded by advisors and donors who have a very specific worldview. They're on social media. They're coming into contact with a lot of viral content or content that gets the most engagement. I think that can really change your perspective on what issues are facing your constituents or what issues are facing Californians or Americans. So, I think it's just so important now more than ever. I love democracy. I love the idea that we can help change the trajectory, the course of our country. The last 250 years of American success have been unprecedented. So, I think our institutions have gotten some things right in terms of the enormous human progress we've seen compared to any other era in human history. But I do think we're at this unique moment where it's harder than ever for our leaders to empathize with your average Californian or your average American because those tools are not readily at their disposal. They've got to spend half their time raising money from donors and then they're engaging on social media the rest of the time and hearing worldviews that sometimes don't actually dovetail with how most Americans or most Californians are feeling but instead just represent the most engaging or most outrageous content. So, I think now more than ever, especially in a democracy, leaders have to go out of their way to find a way to engage with their broader constituents. I think deliberative democracies are a really interesting way of doing that, of bringing together a bunch of different perspectives, and it slows down that policy development process, that thought process. So it's not just driven by what's viral or what's engaging. It's actually substantially responsive to what constituents want.

我挑战你，Evan Spiegel，去拯救民主。不，我只是在想，我喜欢这个，因为出于很多原因，我是协商民主的忠实粉丝。我认为——我对人们有极大的信心，当他们坐在一起，通过某种引导过程，能够真正分享他们的人生经历时。我们共情和同情的能力就像人类的超能力。真的非常了不起。就像在“全美一室”中体验到的，他们制作了一些视频，你在里面看到那些在美国的社会和文化背景下永远没有机会真正见面交谈的人。但他们在那些体验之后说：“我真的没有从你的角度看问题。我真的不理解你的经历，现在我知道了，我对这个或那个问题的看法完全不一样了。”这种情况一次又一次地发生。

I challenge you to save democracy, Evan Spiegel. No, but I was just thinking that I love that because I'm a huge fan of deliberative democracy for a lot of reasons. I think getting—I have amazing faith in people when they sit down together in a kind of facilitated process but are able to truly share their human experience. Our ability for empathy and compassion is like a human superpower. It really is quite incredible. As was experienced in America in One Room, they made some videos that came out of that where you saw people who would never have the opportunity really in their social and cultural context within America to really meet and talk. And yet they came out of those experiences saying, 'I really didn't see it from your perspective. I really didn't understand what you were going through, and now I do, and I feel very differently about this issue or that issue.' And it happens again and again and again.

所以我非常相信这一点。但我认为，要大规模地利用这些工具并发挥这种同情心，我们需要技术。我们需要技术来实现这一点。有一些例子，比如疫情期间他们做的 Zoom 之类的，那很好，但我相信还有更多可能。我相信我们可以做得更好。那么，作为审议式民主的爱好者，你有没有考虑过这个问题？你有没有想过如何大规模地把人们聚集在一起？而且我认为，对于一个根植于真实沟通的组织来说，你们是帮助我们创建一种完全不同的大规模民主制度的合适人选。

So, I'm a huge believer in this. But I believe in order to use those tools and harness that compassion at scale, we need technology. We need technology to do that. And there are some examples like they've done, Zoom and things like that during COVID, and that's great, but I'm sure there's more. I'm sure we can do better. So, as a fan of deliberative democracy, have you thought about that? Have you thought about ways to bring people together at scale? And I think with an organization whose roots and DNA are about authentic communication, I think you're the right organization to help us create a completely different kind of democratic institution at scale.

这真的很有趣。我看到过一些通过视频聊天等方式把人们聚集起来的努力。我认为审议式民主有两个非常重要的要素，而且随着 AI 的进步，如今大规模实现它们变得更加可能。第一个是专家意见。这是我看到真正能带来改变的因素之一。让持有不同观点的专家参与这些议题很重要。不是所有人都意见一致，有些专家看法截然不同，但能够综合这些信息并呈现给正在思考和讨论的群体，这非常关键。我认为这一点讨论得还不够。几十年前，在美国政府中，我们资助并建立了专业中心，无论是税收政策还是其他领域，政治家在起草政策或理解特定议题时可以依赖这些专家。现在，很多专家建议被外包给了游说者或试图塑造政治环境的企业，因为我们的政府没有以美国的目标为出发点来资助自己的专家。所以，我认为专家成分非常重要。而主持成分也极其有价值。观察主持人如何引导并帮助每个人在桌旁发出声音、分享观点，我觉得这非常有意义。但这两者——主持和专家——我认为越来越可以用人工智能来实现。所以你可以想象一个世界，人们可以通过视频通话或聊天来参与。我们正在测试一个名为“话题聊天”的新产品，人们可以在 Snapchat 上加入公开群聊，讨论世界上发生的事情或他们正在做的事。目前热门话题是电子游戏和圣诞节。但未来，我们会把专家文章和观点引入这些对话，当然我们已经对这些空间进行审核，确保对话积极、建设性且相互尊重。你可以想象一个数字空间，它提供更多这种深思熟虑的审议方式，真正获取广泛选民的意见，而不仅仅是声音最大或资金最充足的人。我认为这将非常重要。

It's really interesting. I have seen some of the efforts to bring people together on video chat and those sorts of things. I think there are two elements of deliberative democracy that are really important and that increasingly, especially with some of the advancements in AI, are probably more possible today in terms of being able to scale it. The first is that expert input. That was one of the things that I saw really make a difference. It's important to get experts with a lot of different viewpoints on these issues. Not everyone agrees. There are experts that see things very differently, but being able to synthesize that information and present it to the group that's thinking about it and talking through it is so important. I think this isn't talked about enough. Decades ago in America, in our government, we funded and built centers of expertise, whether it's tax policy or you name it, where we really had experts that politicians could rely on when they were drafting policy or to understand a specific issue. Now, a lot of that expert advice is outsourced to lobbyists, or corporations who are trying to shape the political environment because our government isn't funding their own experts with the objectives of the United States in mind. So, I think that expertise component is really important. And I think the moderation component is incredibly valuable. To watch how moderators were able to navigate and help everyone have a voice around the table to share their perspective. I thought that was really meaningful. But both of those things, both the moderation and the expertise, are things that increasingly I think we can do with artificial intelligence. So, I think you can imagine a world where folks can engage, whether that's on a video call or in chat. We've been testing a new product called Topic Chats where people can get together in public group chats on Snapchat and talk about what's going on in the world or what they're up to. Right now it's video games and Christmas that were popular topics. But increasingly, bringing into those conversations expert articles and opinions, and of course we already moderate those spaces to make sure conversations are positive and constructive, people are respectful. I think you can imagine a digital space that provides a lot more of this deliberative and thought-through approach to really getting the view of a broad base of constituents, not just the folks who are the loudest or given the most money. I think that's going to be really important.

是的，我认为公民的声音在今天的民主中确实迷失了。尤其是在美国，因为金钱在我们的政治中占据了很大比重。美国在民主面临的挑战方面，确实有一些其他国家没有的独特问题。但你看到越来越多的国家在使用这种技术，这种社会技术，通过公民大会等方式把人们聚集起来解决这些问题。有趣的是，人工智能已经创建了一些平台来进行这种审议式民意调查，就像在美国的一个房间里发生的那样。他们发现 AI 主持人更受信任。因为人们觉得，“哦，他们没有议程。”我不知道这是好是坏，但人们普遍认为，“人类会有议程，但 AI 可能没有。”所以他们通常更信任 AI。但谈到 AI，我认为这非常重要。显然，这是现在每个人都在以各种方式讨论的话题，它对社会产生了巨大影响。我想知道，AI 是如何改变你们的平台的？你是否预见到了你所看到的这些变化？

Yeah, the citizen's voice, I think, is really lost in democracy today. Well, in particular in the United States because money is such a big part of our politics. In the United States, when it comes to challenges to its democracy, it does have some very unique challenges that other countries don't face. But you see more and more countries using this kind of technology, this social technology, to bring people together in citizens' assemblies and so on and solve these problems. I think artificial intelligence, interestingly enough, they've created some platforms that do this kind of deliberative poll, which is what happened in America in one room. And they've found that the AI moderators are more trusted. Because the people feel like, 'Oh, they don't have an agenda.' And I don't know that that could be good or bad, but people generally feel like, 'Well, the humans are going to have an agenda, but the AI probably won't.' So, they generally trust them more. But coming to AI, and I think this is really important. Obviously, it's a topic that everybody's talking about right now in all kinds of different ways, and it's having huge impact on our society. And I'm wondering, how has AI changed the platform for you? And did you anticipate the kinds of changes you've seen?

哦，天哪。我们与 AI 合作已经很久了，现在它驱动着我们服务的很多部分。无论是内容推荐，还是相机里的各种特效，比如我前几天把自己变成了一个三明治，挺搞笑的。我们在核心服务中以各种方式实现了 AI。对我来说，退一步看 Snap 和公司的未来，AI 最令人兴奋的一点是，它让我们能把更多时间花在我们最擅长的事情上，即发明创造和提出新想法，而花更少的时间在执行上，因为我们可以比以往任何时候都更快地将新想法、新概念变成现实。前几天我和我们的一位团队成员争论，她领导产品组织。我们争论的是想法与执行的未来，哪个更重要？我认为毫无疑问，今天执行要重要得多。我们有无数想法，执行才是难点。但随着执行变得越来越容易，尤其是在软件领域借助人工智能，我好奇创造力和构思会变得多么珍贵。所以展望 Snap 未来几年，我们拥有这么多重要的基础元素，比如人们的社交图谱、友谊、人际关系，以及所有支撑我们服务的后端基础设施。

Oh, goodness. Well, we've been working with AI for so long and power so much of our service at this point. Whether it's content recommendations, whether it's all the transformations that happen in our camera, for example. I turned myself into a sandwich the other day. It was pretty funny. But there are all sorts of ways that we've implemented AI in the core service. For me, taking a step back, looking big picture at Snap and the future of the company, one of the things that's so exciting to me about AI is that it's allowing us to spend a lot more time on what we're best at, which is inventing stuff and coming up with new ideas. And actually less time on the execution piece, because we're able to take a new idea, a new concept to completion faster than we ever could have imagined. I was just having this debate with one of our team members the other day. She leads our product organization. We were really debating this idea versus execution future. Like what's going to be most important? I think unquestionably today execution is infinitely more important. We got millions of ideas. The execution piece is the hard part. But as that gets easier and easier, especially in the software space with artificial intelligence, I wonder how much more of a premium there will be on creativity and ideation. So to me, as I look ahead at the next couple years of Snap, we have so many of these really important foundational elements like people's friend graph, their friendships, relationships with one another, all this back-end infrastructure we have to power our service.

但现在有了 AI，我们可以利用一些基础元素来快速原型设计和构建全新的应用体验、全新的服务，而且速度非常快。所以对我来说，当我思考 Snapchat 的未来时，Snapchat 本身已经在几乎每个环节都由 AI 驱动，但 AI 将如何改变我们在 Snap 的工作方式，以及我们能够提供的服务类型呢？当然，我认为最重大、最深刻的变革之一，将是人们从主要通过聊天机器人界面、文本界面与 AI 交互，转变为通过眼镜与 AI 交互，对吧？因为眼镜能理解你周围的世界，理解你的上下文，它们能够理解多模态输入，也就是说，它们能理解你的声音，也能理解你指向的东西。这种转变——从通过聊天机器人或文本窗口与 AI 交互，转变为像在现实世界中与朋友、导师或教授互动那样与 AI 交互——我认为这将是我们通过 Spectacles 推动的另一个重大变革。

But now with AI, we can take some of those foundational elements and use it to prototype and build totally new app experiences, totally new services, and do that really, really quickly. So to me as I think about the future of Snapchat, Snapchat itself is already powered by AI in almost every part of our service, but how is AI going to change the way we actually work at Snap, the types of services we're going to be able to offer. And of course, I think one of the biggest and most profound changes will be people going from interacting with AI primarily through a chatbot interface, through a text interface as it is today, to interacting with AI through glasses, right? Because glasses understand the world around you, they understand your context, they are able to understand multimodal input, meaning they can understand your voice, but also what you're pointing at. And that sort of shift in terms of going from interacting with AI through a chatbot or a text window to interacting with AI the same way you interact with a friend or a mentor or a professor in the real world. I think that's going to be another really big shift that we're helping to power with Spectacles.

你谈了很多关于创造真实互动机会并以某种方式保留这种机会，这已经融入了 Snapchat 的 DNA 和你创建它的方式，并且随着时间的推移影响了你们。现在所有社交媒体平台上都有大量 AI 生成的内容。你是否觉得这在某种程度上损害了真实性？或者，你对此有何看法——这些内容有多少，以及它可能如何改变平台和用户体验？

So you talked a lot about how creating the opportunities for authentic interaction and the preservation of that in some way was in the DNA of Snapchat and the way you've created it and it's sort of influenced you over time. Now there's a tremendous amount of AI-generated content that's on all the social media platforms. Do you feel like that in any way compromises authenticity or how do you feel, I guess, about how much of this is on there and how it might change the platform and the experience of it?

嗯，这很有趣。Snapchat 的一个独特之处在于人们每天发送的 snaps 数量之多——每天有数十亿条 snaps。他们用这些来向朋友表达自己。AI 已经成为我们服务上一个非常有趣的创意工具，让人们制作有趣或搞笑的 snaps，这些内容他们自己无法创作或绘制，但可以借助 AI 非常快速地表达想法，并与朋友和家人分享。因此，我们看到 AI 支持的创意爆发，我认为这在我们的服务上非常强大，为人们创造了更多连接和沟通的方式。在内容消费方面，人们想在服务上观看的内容类型，我们看到社区对真实内容有非常强烈的渴望，而不是 AI 制作的内容。人们更感兴趣的是邻居制作的视频，而不是 AI 制作的东西。所以，虽然我确实认为 AI 将继续成为一个强大的创意工具，并且一定比例的 AI 生成视频会很有趣或娱乐性强，但从我们的社区来看，贯穿始终的是对真实性的真正渴望。

Well, it's so interesting. One of the unique things about Snapchat is just how many snaps people are making every day. Billions and billions of snaps every day. And they're using that to express themselves with their friends. And AI has become such a fun creative tool for people on our service to make funny snaps and silly snaps that they wouldn't be able to create themselves or draw themselves, but they can express their idea really, really quickly with AI and share it with their friends and family. And so, the explosion of creativity we've seen that's been supported by AI, I think it's been incredibly powerful on our service and has created more ways for people to connect and to communicate with one another. I think on the content side in terms of consumption, the types of content people want to watch on our service, what we have seen is a very, very strong desire from our community for authentic content, not content made by AI. Folks are much more interested in the video that's made by their neighbor or something like that, than they are in something that's made by AI. And so, while I do think AI will continue to be a powerful creative tool and some amount of AI-created videos will be funny or entertaining or whatever, what we see through our community, the through line is that real desire for authenticity.

AI 开发的一大挑战是具身问题。Spectacles 对此有帮助吗？具体怎么帮助？

One of the big challenges in AI development has been the embodiment issue. Do the specs help with that? How so?

嗯，我刚刚在想，如果你使用的 AI 通过与你相同的视角观察世界，这在某种程度上就解决了一个具身问题，对吧？你在世界中移动，与世界互动。它可能无法感受你触摸的东西，但它肯定能看到，对吧？

Well, I was just thinking like if the AI you're using is looking at the world through the same lens as you are, in a way it solves one of the embodiment problems, right? You're moving through the world. You're interacting with the world. It may not be able to feel what you're touching, but it can certainly see, right?

我知道，比如李飞飞这样的人正在非常努力地研究这种视觉体验，将其作为训练基础模型的具身关键要素之一。我想知道你们所做的工作是否对此有所贡献？

And I know that there's been, I mean, there are people like Fei-Fei Li who are working quite hard on that sort of visual experience as one of the really key elements of embodiment to train the foundation models. And I was wondering if any of the work that you're doing is contributing to that.

是的，飞飞也是 Snap 的校友，这很棒。她很了不起。我的意思是，她非常有才华，为 Snap 做出了很多重大贡献。我想 Bobby 在十多年前就创建了我们的生成式 AI 实验室。所以我认为这是一个我们长期关注和思考的领域。正如你指出的，我确实认为人们对捕捉视角和世界上下文的能力感到非常兴奋，这对 AI 交互以及机器人技术（这是一件大事）都会产生影响。所以我认为，展望未来，增强现实和眼镜很可能会成为与机器人交互的界面层，对吧？因为它们不仅帮助你理解 AI 智能体的意图，还能理解环境中机器人的意图，让你更有效地协作。因此，关于 AI 和增强现实如何融合，尤其是在未来几十年与机器人技术结合，有很多有趣的思考。但我认为，在跨越那座桥梁之前，我们试图解决的最重要的问题是让计算更人性化，因为我认为这是关乎存亡的。我们每天使用电脑 7 到 8 个小时。如果通过眼镜，你能从每天使用屏幕 7 到 8 个小时（这让你脱离环境、与朋友隔绝）转变为使用眼镜（让你在现实世界中与朋友相聚），我认为我们社会在计算交互方式上将取得巨大进步，然后我们可以在未来跨越机器人技术和 AI 的桥梁。

Yeah, well, Fei-Fei is a Snap alum, too, which is great. She's amazing. I mean she's super talented and made a lot of great contributions to Snap. I mean Bobby I think created our Gen AI lab over a decade ago. So I think this is a space that we've cared about and thought about for a long time. And as you point out, I do think people are incredibly excited about the ability to capture point of view perspective and context on the world and what that will do for AI interactions. Also what that will do for robotics, which is a really big deal. So I think going forward, augmented reality and glasses are very likely to be sort of the interface layer with robotics, right? Because they help you understand not just maybe the AI agent's intent but a robot's intent in your environment and allow you to more effectively work together. So I think there's a lot of this really interesting thinking about how AI and augmented reality are going to come together especially with things like robotics over the next couple of decades, but I think long before we cross that bridge, the most important problem that we're trying to solve is just making computing more human because that I think is existential. We're using computers 7 or 8 hours a day. If with glasses you can go from using a screen 7 or 8 hours a day that takes you out of your environment, separates you from your friends, to using glasses that bring you together in the real world with your friends, I think we're going to be making a ton of progress as a society in terms of the way that we interface with computing and we can cross the bridge on robotics and AI in the future.

嗯，这又回到了你的起源，比如设计和用户体验。这始终是你非常重视的事情。但你之前提到过想法与执行，以及现在的平衡点。你是否觉得 AI 的创意部分，即构思，仍将是人类的领域，还是你认为 AI 最终也会在这方面做得更好？

Well, that goes back to I guess your origins as like the design, the user experience. This was always something that was really, really important to you. But something that you said earlier about ideas versus execution and where the balance is now. Do you feel like AI that the creative portion of this, the ideation will remain the domain of the human or is that something that you think AI is going to be ultimately better at as well?

这是个好问题，而且确实取决于创造力的类型。我的意思是，我认为过去很多创新和发明都来自于结合不同领域、跨越知识领域，或者发现不同领域中存在的模式并将它们联系起来。AI 会非常擅长这一点，对吧？我确实认为 AI 有机会进行发明和创造。不过，从我个人的 AI 使用经验来看，在真正发明全新事物方面的生成能力和容量，我认为是相当有限的。

It's a great question and it truly depends on the type of creativity. I mean, I think so much innovation and invention in the past has come from combining domains or crossing domains of knowledge or finding patterns that exist in different domains and connecting those together. AI is going to be really good at that, right? And I do think there is certainly the opportunity for AI to invent and create. I have found though in my own personal use of AI that the generative capability and capacity in terms of really being able to invent net new things I think is quite limited.

显然，因为 AI 更像是对当今社会的一面镜子，反映我们已经发明的一切、已经写下和说过的一切。所以，在我个人使用 AI 时，我确实觉得它在真正全新的创意生成方面存在一些局限，这并不让我意外。但在那种通过发现模式和连接事物而产生的创造力方面，我认为 AI 会非常擅长。所以很难说。我认为 AI 会在某些创意领域大放异彩，但在其他领域仍会受到限制。

Obviously because AI is more of a mirror reflection of our society as it is today and all the things we've already invented, all the things we've already written and said. So, it doesn't surprise me that in my personal use of AI, I do feel like there are some limitations on truly net new idea generation. But in terms of that sort of creativity that comes from seeing patterns and connecting things together, I think AI is going to be very good at that. So, hard to say. I think AI will shine in some areas creatively but still be constrained in others.

在你能分享的范围内，过去几年你看到了什么？我的意思是，你从事 AI 工作这么久。有没有某个时刻，你被它做的某件事、它创造的某样东西，或者你用它做到的事情深深震撼？

To the extent that you can share it, what have you seen in the last few years? I mean, you've been working with AI for so long. Was there any point in time where you were just amazed at something that it did or something that it created or that you were able to do with it?

就在上周五，我们一直在琢磨一个全新服务的想法。我们讨论了几种可能的运作方式和体验，然后一位团队成员说：“好，让我看看我能用 vibe coding 做点什么，然后我回来找你。”两小时后，我们就一起用上了那个服务。所以对我来说，这恰恰反映了世界变化有多快。但同样，我们如何利用 Snapchat 的一些基础元素，比如人们的社交图谱和他们的回忆——例如，人们保存了他们在 Snapchat 上拍的所有快照。我们如何利用这些对人们非常重要的基础元素，然后在上面创建一个非常灵活、可以快速变化、甚至人们自己都可以用 AI 来创建的服务。所以，我认为能在 Snap 建立的这个基础上进行实验会非常非常有趣，因为现在，只要有一个想法的基本轮廓，你就能在一小时内从零生成一个全新的应用界面、一个全新的服务。

Just last Friday, we've been playing around with some ideas for a totally new service. We were kicking around a couple ideas for how it could work and what it might feel like, and one of our team members said, "Okay, let me just see what I can vibe code and I'll get back to you." And two hours later, we were using the service together. So, to me, that's just a reflection of how quickly the world is changing. But again, how can we use some of these foundational elements of Snapchat, like people's friend graph and their memories, for example, people save all the snaps they've taken on Snapchat. How can we take some of those foundational elements that are so important to people, but then create a service on top of it that's very malleable, that can change very quickly, that people could potentially even create themselves using AI. So, I think it's going to be really, really fun to be able to experiment on top of this foundation we built at Snap because now, with a basic outline of an idea, you can generate a whole new app interface, a whole new service from scratch in an hour.

听起来太令人兴奋了。但同时，一个变化如此之快的世界让我有点害怕。我不知道这算正常还是只是因为我老了，但确实如此。

It sounds so exciting. At the same time, a world moving that fast scares me a little. I don't know if that's normal or it's just because I'm old, but yeah, it does.

感觉我们将要生活在一个需要以想象力的速度去适应的世界里，这既令人惊叹又令人畏惧。

It's both amazing and daunting to feel like we'll be in a world where we need to adapt at the rate of our imagination.

有一件事总能给我希望，或者说让我乐观，那就是我们一次又一次地适应了巨大的基础性技术飞跃，对吧？想想铁路，想想铁路发展时发生了什么。再想想半导体。我们作为一个社会，经历过这些巨大的转型。我认为你指出它们是颠覆性的，这很对。我们应该承认这一点，并公开讨论，但我们也应该说我以前们做到过，对吧？而且它们遵循一个相对标准的模式。它们大约在三到四十年内展开。第一个十年是快速进步期，收益集中在极少数人和公司手中。这种极快的变化速度和价值集中的方式往往会引发政治和社会问题，以及大量的政治和社会变革。然后在接下来的几十年里，技术进步真正扩散到整个社会，收益变得非常广泛。所以通常在那个时候，你会看到更广泛、更持久的经济增长。所以我想说的是，我同意你的看法，变革是艰难的，它发生得很快，但我们以前做到过。我认为美国的一个优势就是我们过去频繁地做到过，以及我们在这些变革和转型时刻的引领能力，这最终促成了我们作为一个国家的整体成功。

One of the things that always gives me hope, or I guess what makes me optimistic, is that we have just time and again adapted to huge foundational technological leaps, right? I mean, if you think about the railroads and what happened when the railroads were developed. When you think about semiconductors. We have been as a society through these massive transitions. And I think you're right to point out that they are disruptive. And I think we should acknowledge that and talk about that publicly, but we should also say we've done it before, right? And they follow a relatively standard pattern. They unfold over about three to four decades. The first decade is really that very rapid progress, the benefits accrue to a very small number of people and companies. That very rapid rate of change and the concentrated way that the value accrues tends to create political and societal issues and a lot of political and societal change. And then in the ensuing couple of decades, the technological progress really diffuses through our society and the benefits are very widespread. So typically at that point, you get much more widespread and enduring economic growth. So I think all this to say, I agree with you, change is hard, it's happening fast, but we've done it before. And I think one of the strengths of America is how frequently we've done it in the past and our ability to lead in these moments of change and transformation which have ultimately led to our success overall as a country.

那么，当你想到我们实际上在制度上适应工业革命时，我们真的经历了一场大萧条和一场世界大战才走到那一步。我希望我们现在不需要付出那样的代价，但迹象确实很明显，系统中存在某种程度的混乱，因为我们现有的制度架构未能应对我们面临的挑战，而变革的压力正变得不可否认。所以我想，我们如何到达那里？我们如何从现在的状态到达那里，而且也许不用经历第三次世界大战？

Well, then you think about when we actually institutionally adapted to the Industrial Revolution, it really took us a Great Depression and a World War to get there. I'm hoping that's not what it takes us now, but it certainly looks like the writing is on the wall and there is this sort of level of chaos in the system as the institutional architecture that we have has failed to live up to the challenges we face and yet the pressure for change is becoming just undeniable. So I guess what are the like how do we get there? How do we get from where we are now to there and maybe not have World War III?

我认为这需要智慧和领导力。我认为，即使是世界大战这个概念或想法，其严重性和严峻性也足以让我们所有人感到恐惧。我的祖父参加过第二次世界大战。他是一名非常强悍的海军陆战队员，而且非常清楚，他会尽一切努力防止类似的事情再次发生。我认为在这个时刻，尤其考虑到那一代人还健在的人已经很少了，我们必须继续向他们学习，学习他们的经验，尊重他们所经历的绝对恐怖。然后，从战争归来后，他们在支持重建、投资未来、投资年轻人以建设我们今天的社会方面表现出的慷慨程度，坦率地说，令人敬佩。我认为我们必须对在这方面走在我们前面的人怀有极大的敬意，并真正向他们学习。我认为我们可以从他们身上学到的一点，有助于防止那种可能导致另一场同样可怕战争的虚无主义，那就是投资于年轻人，投资于未来。我认为，如果你看看当今美国的联邦政府，我们在老年人身上的投资严重过度，对吧？每给 18 岁以下的人 1 美元，就给老年人 6 到 7 美元。我认为，如果你看到这种差距，就不难理解年轻人为什么会有那种虚无主义的感觉，或者年轻人觉得他们永远找不到好工作或买不起房子。而现在 AI 会让情况更糟，对吧，它会夺走他们的入门级工作机会。我认为在这个时刻，至关重要的是，我们要有一个真实的故事和一套政策，帮助我们投资于年轻人和未来。

I think it will take wisdom and leadership. I think the seriousness and gravity of even the notion or a thought of a World War should be enough to scare all of us. My grandfather served in World War II. He was a tough, very tough Marine, and it was incredibly clear that he would do anything he could to prevent anything like that from ever occurring again. And I think what is so important in this moment in time, especially given that there are so few folks who are still alive who are part of that generation, is that we must continue to learn from them, to learn from their experience and to respect the absolute horrors that they endured. And then, returning from the war, the amount of generosity, frankly, in supporting the rebuild, the investment in the future, the investment in young people to be able to build the society we have today. I think we just have to have incredible respect for the folks who came before us in that regard and to really learn from them. And I think one of the things we can learn from them that I think will help prevent the sort of nihilism that could lead to another terrible war on that scale is investing in young people and investing in the future. And I think that is something, if you look at the federal government today in the United States, we way over index in our investments in old people, right? Six or seven dollars for older folks for every dollar for folks under the age of 18. And I think if you look at that sort of disparity, it's no wonder that there's that feeling of nihilism in terms of young people or young people feeling they'll never be able to get a great job or afford a house. And now AI is going to make it worse, right, and take their entry-level job opportunities. I think it's just critically important at this moment in time that we have a real story and a set of policies that help us to invest in young people and in the future.

因为如果人们能看到一个更光明的未来，并为之共同努力——我认为这对其他国家也是如此——那么我们就不太可能陷入那种人们可能因意外或故意而陷入某种可怕危机的局面。

Because if people can see a brighter future that they can work towards together, and I think this is true of other countries as well. I think we're going to be less likely to end up in a situation where people, you know, could by accident or by intention end up in some sort of horrible crisis.

我们需要的只是用事实来提醒人们，如果我们今天做出灾难性的投资，不给年轻人机会，世界会变成什么样——因为他们会行动。我认为，不仅仅是虚无主义——虚无主义在某些情况下更糟——但变革的压力和被抛弃的感觉足以让年轻人站起来说：这不可接受。我们需要一个不同的世界，而正是这些人阻碍我们创造那个未来，不仅为我们自己，也为所有人。我认为年轻人心中积累的挫败感是危险的，但也是合理的。那么，我们如何帮助他们？如何投资于他们？

What we need is just facts to do. To sort of remind people of what the world could look like if we make disastrous investments today and not give young people the opportunity, because they will. I mean, I think that yes, it's not just the nihilism. Nihilism is in some cases worse, but I think the pressure for change and the sense of abandonment will be enough to cause young people to rise up and say this is not acceptable. We need a different world and it's these people who are holding us back from actually creating that future. Not only just for ourselves, but collectively for everybody. And I think that sense of frustration that's building in the young people is dangerous but warranted. So how do we help them? How do we invest in them?

我觉得这是个非常好的问题。对我来说，当我思考这类事情时，我常常从加州开始。主要是因为我爱加州，但也因为我认为这是一个更可控的问题。对吧？你知道，这是一个一党制州。所以如果他们真的想改变，他们完全可以做到。但我担心的是，在目前这个时刻，尤其是在这种党派政治下，在像加州这样的民主党占绝对多数的州，如果你指出我们加州面临的问题，我认为人们会立即反驳，或者想指出党派偏见。所以我担心我们在加州需要迈出的第一步是举手承认我们确实有问题。我们有全美最高的失业率，全美最高的贫困率，最多的无家可归者。尽管我们在教育系统上投入了巨额资金，但教育成果却面临挑战。所以我认为我们首先要做的是从一个更可控的环境开始，比如加州，在那里改变是可能的，但同时也要承认我们这里确实存在一些真正的问题和挑战。

I think it's such a good question. I mean, to me, I often times when I'm thinking about this sort of stuff, I try to start with California. Mostly because I love California, but also because I think it's a more manageable problem. Right. You know, it's a single party state. So actually if they want to change things, they really can. You know, but I worry because at this moment in time and especially with such partisan politics and in a sort of a state like California where Democrats have supermajority, if you call out the problems that we face as California, I think immediately people push back on that right or or want to point out sort of partisanship. And so I'm worried that like the first step that we need to take here in California is to raise our hand and say we've got a real problem. We've got the highest unemployment rate in the United States of America. We've got the highest poverty rate in the United States of America. We've got the most homelessness. We have challenging educational outcomes despite spending a huge amount of money on our education system. And so I think the first thing we have to do is start with a more manageable environment like California where change is possible, but then also say we've got some real problems here and real challenges.

我认为，当我思考改变轨迹和有所作为的步骤和机会时，我确实认为教育是其中之一，但不仅仅是为了提高数学或英语成绩。我认为我们还必须在技能型行业和教育上投入更多的投资、时间和精力。我和很多人聊过，他们小时候上学时，可以学习如何焊接、如何建造东西、如何修理东西。我认为这不仅是一项重要的技能，能转化为很好的高薪工作机会，而且它改变了你看待世界的方式——因为当你突然意识到建造或修理东西其实并不难时，你在生活中就有了更多的自主权，你思考如何塑造自己未来的方式也会改变，对吧？这和在多项选择测试中涂答题卡是完全不同的。

I think, you know, as I look at what are the steps, what are the opportunities in terms of changing the trajectory there and making a difference, I do think education is one of those opportunities, but not just in terms of gosh can we get the math scores to improve or the English scores to improve. I think we also have to put a lot more investment and time and effort into skills-based trades and education. I mean, I talked to a lot of folks who when they were growing up and they were going to school, they could learn how to weld and they could learn how to build stuff and they could learn how to fix things. And I think not only is that an important skill that then translates into great job and very high-paying job opportunities, but it also changes the way that you think about the world because all of a sudden when you realize it's actually not that hard to build stuff or to fix stuff, you've got a lot more agency in terms of your life and the way that you think about shaping your own future, right? It's really different than filling in the bubble on a multiple choice test when you're building something.

所以我确实认为，尤其是在加州，我们可以带头帮助年轻人重新学会建造东西——我认为这对美国的前几代人来说非常重要，他们拥有那种自主权、创造力和创造事物的能力。然后通过真正重视建造来延续这种心态，对吧？作为首要任务，我们可以将这一点贯彻到加州的其他政策领域。我的意思是，这并不奇怪，对吧？每一个研究加州住房危机的精英委员会都得出非常简单的解决方案：我们需要建造更多住房，对吧？在像加州这样的绝对多数州，我们有很多事情可以做，现在就可以加快速度。我知道去年在 CEQA（加州环境质量法案）改革方面已经采取了一些措施，但你知道，晚了十多年，我的意思是，这个问题已经存在了很长时间。

And so I do think that especially here in California we could take the lead in helping young people build things again in a way that I think was so important to prior generations in America having that agency, having that creativity and ability to create things. And then I think carrying through that mindset by really valuing building, right? And as a first order we could take that and flow that through other policy domains here in California. I mean, it's no surprise, right? Every blue ribbon commission that looks at the housing crisis in California, the solution is very simple. We need to build more housing, right? And there's a lot that we can do again in a supermajority state like California, there's a lot we can do right now to make that faster. I know there have been some steps taken last year in terms of CEQA reform, but you know, a decade plus late, I mean, this has been an issue for such a long time.

是为了应对火灾，对吧？我是说，杰里·布朗做了一些。然后我相信去年洛杉矶火灾后也采取了一些措施。

In response to the fires, wasn't it? I mean, there was some Jerry Brown did some of it. And then I believe there was something done after the LA fires last year.

我认为已经有了一些势头。你知道，我们全家在可负担住房领域投资了相当长一段时间，试图提高对这个问题的认识。我认为人们早就知道 CEQA 有多么棘手，但改变的政治意愿实际上直到最近一年左右才真正凝聚起来。所以很高兴看到那里的一些变化，但同样，这是一种心态转变——我们需要真正庆祝并自豪于我们建造、建好、建快的能力。我认为这是我们在加州可以做到的。

I think there's been momentum. I mean, you know, we as a family, we've invested in the housing space for quite some time in terms of affordable housing, trying to raise awareness of this issue. I think folks have known how challenging CEQA has been for a really, really long time, but I think the political will to change things has really only coalesced in the last year or so. So, it was great to see some of those changes there, but again, it's this mentality shift of really needing to celebrate and to pride ourselves in our ability to build and to build well and build quickly. And I think that's something that we could do here in California.

是的，我很想看到。我想你也知道，我们花了 14 年时间试图在布伦特伍德获得我们的房产批准。

Yeah, I mean, I would love to see it. As you I think are aware, we're 14 years into trying to get our property approved up in Brentwood.

才 14 年？

Just 14?

才 14 年。哦天哪，你们进展真快。那很好。

Just 14. Oh my goodness, you're moving quick. That's good.

现在大概有 3000 页了。读起来很有意思。我会发给你的。

It is now 3,000 pages long, I believe. It's a really interesting read. I'll send it to you.

我猜那也一点都不贵吧。

I bet that wasn't expensive at all, either.

不，一点也不贵。没错。所以你能理解为什么开发商——除非你有极其耐心的资本——否则没人能撑得住。这太不可思议了。你们家一直在投资住房问题，这很好。加州的住房危机确实是个问题，而无法建造也绝对是个问题。

No, not at all. Exactly. So, you can understand why developers, unless you've got incredibly patient capital, there's no, nobody can survive that. It's incredible. It's good that your family's been investing in the housing crisis in California is certainly a problem and not being able to build is certainly a problem.

但有些人说这不仅仅是这里的问题。似乎住房危机和生活成本，尤其是住房方面，现在在世界各地很多地方都存在。我是说，主要城市变得非常非常昂贵。洛杉矶也很贵，但这并不独特。有些人责怪科技公司，有些人责怪 Airbnb。你怎么看？我想是责任，或者说是技术对这些变化和机会的影响，这也关系到年轻人的机会。

But some people say this isn't a problem just here. It seems like the housing crisis and the cost of living, particularly when it comes to housing, is being experienced in lots of places all over the world now. I mean, major cities have become really, really expensive. LA again, LA's really expensive, but it's not necessarily unique. And some people blame the tech companies. Some people blame Airbnb. What do you think? I guess the responsibility or I guess the impact of technology on these sort of changes and the opportunity, and it plays into the opportunities for young people, too.

很多年轻人都在抱怨他们买不起第一套房，对吧？因为现在动不动就一百万美元以上。科技领域以及这个行业改变世界的方式，承担着什么样的责任？

A lot of young people are complaining they can't afford to buy a first home, right? 'Cause now it's a million dollars plus. What kind of responsibility does the technology field and the way the industry is sort of changing the world bear?

嗯，我觉得退一步看，如果我们看看大城市，或者任何很多人想住的地方，住房总是会更贵，这只是供需关系的结果。所以对我来说并不意外，在全国很多城市，尤其是人们想住的地方，或者就业机会多、行业发展快的地方，我们会看到更高的房价。但我确实认为你可以和美国很多城市对比。当然，如果你看看现在的阳光地带城市，那里有大量的建设，尤其是在新冠期间和之后，租金现在大幅下降，生活成本实际上越来越可负担。区别在于，他们允许非常快速地进行大量建设。所以其中一个因素当然是，像洛杉矶或旧金山这样的地方，是人们想住的地方。但与此同时，这些地方也让我们很难进行建设。我认为这就是我们今天面临极其困难局面的原因，仅洛杉矶一地就短缺 50 万套住房。

Well, I think taking a step back, if we look at big cities, or any place where lots of people want to live, the housing's always going to be more expensive, just as a function of supply and demand. So it's not surprising to me that in many cities across the country, especially cities where people want to live or where there's lots of job opportunity or industry's growing really quickly, we're going to see higher housing prices. But I do think you can contrast that with many cities in the United States. Certainly if you look at the Sunbelt cities right now, where there was a huge amount of building, especially around COVID and following COVID, where rents are in dramatic decline right now, where it actually is getting more and more affordable to live. The difference there is that they allowed a lot of building very, very rapidly. So one of the elements, of course, is that a place like Los Angeles or San Francisco or you name it, these are places people want to live. But at the same time, they're also places where we made it very difficult to build. And I think that's where you have that incredibly difficult outcome that we have today, where in Los Angeles alone, we're short 500,000 units of housing.

数百万或者更多。

Millions or something.

是的，我认为有一个范围。但这已经变成了一场危机，因为建设太难了。而且我认为还有其他情有可原的情况。另一个是私募股权大量购买住宅房产。这一直是个抱怨。我记得好像是贝莱德。有一篇大文章讲他们在很多不同地方买了多少住宅房产。所以他们买下整个开发项目，让它们永远成为出租房。这基本上就是永久的收入流。所以还有其他这些情有可原的情况在制造这些因素。

Yeah, there's a range, I think. But it's become a crisis because it's so difficult to build. And I think there are other extenuating circumstances. The other one was private equity buying up a bunch of residential housing. That's been a complaint. I think it was like BlackRock. There was a big piece on how much residential housing they had bought in lots of different places. So they'd buy up these entire developments so that they would become rental houses forever. It was basically a stream of income forever. So there are these other extenuating circumstances that are creating those factors.

你在住房方面的投资，主要是本地吗？主要在加州吗？

When the investments that you've made in housing, is it mostly local? Is it mostly in California?

是的，主要是——实际上完全是在洛杉矶这里，是的。

Yeah, it's mostly in—actually it's entirely been here in Los Angeles, yeah.

那么——火灾带来了什么影响？我知道你在火灾方面做了很多，而且我相信你父亲失去了他的家，对吗？这如何改变了你正在做的事情和你的投资方向？

And did—what impact did the—I know that you did a lot for around the fires and I believe your father lost his home. Is that right? How did that change, I guess, what you're working on and what you're investing in?

天哪。是啊，很难相信已经过去一年了。我在帕利塞兹出生和长大，正如你所知，那里在去年年初被烧成了平地。看着你长大的房子在电视上燃烧，真是一次非常疯狂的经历。但我们非常幸运，家人都安全。有一次我们有超过 10 个人住在我们这里——我们就像开了一段时间的汽车旅馆。在那之后，能够支持重建并长期坚持下去非常重要。像这样的大灾难面临的挑战之一是，有很多关注、很多焦点、大量的慷慨。我认为洛杉矶社区和更广泛的世界都非常慷慨。但在最初那场非凡灾难之后，想要返回的居民和人们踏上了长达十年的重建之旅。所以对我们来说，真正重要的是建立一个我们称之为“天使部”的组织，表明我们长期投入，直到人们能够回来。我们发现的机会是，火灾影响了阿尔塔迪纳、马里布和帕利塞兹，影响了许多才华横溢的人，他们有着非常紧密的社区，非常想重建——重建那个社区，重建他们的礼拜场所，重建他们的家园——但火灾后他们完全流离失所，分散在洛杉矶各地、其他州，失去了那些聚集场所和合作协作的渠道。所以我们看到的差距是：如果我们为社区建立一个项目管理能力会怎样，这样幸存者就能领导重建，而我们能处理所有那些耗时、困难、官僚的程序，他们没时间处理这些，因为他们要在重建的同时按时送孩子上学。

My goodness. Yeah, hard to believe it's been a year already. I was born and raised in the Palisades, which, as you know, burned to the ground at the beginning of last year. Watching your house you grew up in burn on TV is a pretty crazy experience. But we were really fortunate our family was safe. At one point we had more than 10 people living with us—we were like running a motel for a little while there. In the wake of that, it was really important to be able to support the recovery and to do it over the long term. One of the challenges with big disasters like this is that there's a lot of attention, a lot of focus, a huge amount of generosity. I think the LA community and the world more broadly has been incredibly generous. But after that initial moment of extraordinary disaster, the residents and folks who want to return are on a decade-long journey to rebuild. So what was really important for us was to set up an organization we called the Department of Angels to say we're in it for the long term, until folks can come back. The opportunity we identified was that the fires impacted Altadena, Malibu, and the Palisades, impacting so many talented people who had such a tight community who really wanted to rebuild—rebuild that community, rebuild their places of worship, rebuild their homes—but following the fires were totally displaced across Los Angeles, across other states, had lost those gathering places and those avenues for working together and collaborating. So the gap we saw was: what if we built essentially a project management capability for the community so that survivors could lead the recovery and we could pick up all of those time-consuming, difficult, bureaucratic procedures that they didn't have time to deal with because they're trying to get their kids to school on time while they're rebuilding.

这基本上让他们能够协调。

That allows them to coordinate essentially.

完全正确。所以我们启动了——我们资助了一个叫“帕利塞兹团队”的组织。他们有街区负责人。所以如果你受到火灾影响，你有一个来自你街区的街区负责人，一个你可以求助的邻居。他们能够收集大量关于什么有效、什么无效的反馈和信息，并提供给我们，这样我们就可以——你知道洛杉矶有多复杂，对吧？我们有市议会、有市长、有州长，当然还有联邦政府。所以需要大量的协调。我们试图以这种方式帮助人们连接各个点。我们还非常积极地支持对火灾健康影响的真正理解。所以我们的家庭还资助了“洛杉矶火灾健康研究”，这是一项为期 10 年的研究，旨在深入理解不仅仅是即时的健康影响。如今，有了所有这些电子产品和电动汽车，人们拥有的一切，当它们燃烧时，会有很多有害物质进入环境。社区非常关心了解环境如何影响，以及它是否随时间改善。研究团队能够检测到六价铬纳米颗粒，这可能有剧毒。但同样，在他们最近的一些报告中，他们显示帕利塞兹的环境已经有了显著改善。

Exactly. So we started—we funded an organization called Team Palisades. They have block captains. So if you're impacted by the fires, you've got a block captain from your block, a neighbor that you can go to as a resource. They are able to collect a lot of feedback and information about what's working and not working and provide that to us so we can—and you know how complicated Los Angeles is, right? We've got a city council, we have a mayor, we've got the governor, of course you got the federal government. So there's a huge amount of coordination required. We try and help connect the dots for folks in that way. We also have been very involved in trying to support a real understanding of the health impacts of the fire. So our family also funded the LA Fire Health Study, which is a 10-year study to really go deep and understand not only the immediate health impacts. Nowadays with all these electronics and electric cars, everything people have, when that burns, there's a lot of nasty stuff that gets into the environment. There's been a lot of concern from the community to understand how the environment is impacting, how it is improving over time or not. The team was able to detect chromium six nanoparticles, which can be incredibly toxic. But also, in some of their more recent reports, they've shown that the environment has improved considerably in the Palisades.

所以，人们可以感到安全。我们说的是对环境进行定期测量测试。

So, people can feel safe. We're talking about periodic measurement testing of the environment.

是的，完全正确。关键在于，没有人深入研究过这些大规模火灾对健康的长期影响，尤其是城市与荒野交界处的火灾，而且研究跨度超过十年。所以我们希望能为未来留下一些东西。但愿其他地方的人不会遭遇这种事。但现在，我们会有真正的资源和文献。大约有八所大学合作进行这项研究，因此我们可以用顶尖科学来理解这类事件，无论是现在还是未来。另一件非常有用的事情是：我们还会对幸存者进行季度调查，了解他们的状况。这为我们提供了很好的纵向理解，也有助于为政策制定者和社区领袖提供信息。目前，七成的人还没有回家。不幸的是，心理健康状况正在迅速恶化。人们用于临时住房的保险金也快用完了。但尽管如此，在我们的调查中，我们看到比以往更多的人想要回家、想要重建。所以，我认为将人们正在经历的难以置信的苦难与他们实际上日益增强的回家决心放在一起对比，非常有意思。

Yeah, exactly. And really the idea is no one has studied in-depth over a decade the long-term health effects of these huge fires, especially at the urban-wildland interface. So the idea is that hopefully we can pay it forward. God forbid that this happens to other folks in other places. But now there will be a real resource and real literature. There are eight or so universities collaborating on this study, so we can really bring leading science to understanding these sorts of events now and into the future. And one of the other things that has been really useful: we also run a quarterly survey of survivors to understand how they're doing. That gives us great longitudinal understanding and helps inform policymakers and leaders in the community. So, seven in ten folks are still not back home. Mental health is deteriorating quite rapidly, unfortunately. Folks are running out of their temporary insurance money that pays for their temporary housing. So that money is starting to run out. Yet through all of that, in our survey, we see more people than ever want to return home, want to rebuild. So I think it's really interesting to juxtapose the unbelievable hardship and suffering that folks are going through right now with their actually improving resolve to return home.

有意思。嗯，有联系的社区是有韧性的社区，所以我认为你做的投资其实很关键——就是把人们凝聚在一起，给他们一种共同目标感，因为他们都在同一条船上。但如果他们彼此失联、分散各地，就没有机会感受到那种同志情谊。你从什么时候开始担任伯格鲁恩研究所的董事会成员？2015 年、2014 年，差不多吧？有一阵子了。

Interesting. Well, connected communities are resilient communities, so I think the investment you made is actually critical—just keeping people together and giving them a sense of common purpose because they're all in this together. But if they're disconnected and all over the place, then they wouldn't have the opportunity to feel that camaraderie. You've been on the board of the Berggruen Institute since what, 2015, 2014, something like that? It's been a while.

有一阵子了。大概是我 24 岁的时候吧。差不多。我该闭嘴了。我再这么说下去，你随时都会翻白眼。但那时候的社交媒体和现在完全不同。它正在通过一个以新方式体验它的社区而演变。尽管我们经历了阿拉伯之春，然后 Facebook 因为英国脱欧事件受到很多批评，等等等等。它一直在演变。

It's been a minute. It would have been when I was 24 years old, something like that. Exactly. I should stop talking. You're going to roll over any second now if I keep saying anything. But the social media was in a really, really different place at that time. It was evolving through a community around it that was experiencing it in new ways. And although we had the Arab Spring, and then Facebook got so much criticism for what happened with Brexit, and so on and so forth. And it's been evolving.

你怎么看待这种演变？社交媒体整体运作的环境又是如何改变了它？

How do you think about that evolution? And how has the context in which social media in general is operating changed it?

好问题。我认为，自始至终，社交媒体都是我们使用方式的一面镜子，对吧？所以它在世界重大事件中扮演了非常重要的角色，比如英国脱欧。与此同时，社交媒体的承诺——它让一个可能不会被邀请上电视、不会被报纸引用，但确实有重要的话要说或能反映自己观点的人发出声音——我认为这是极其持久和宝贵的，并在世界上带来了大量的积极变化。我认为今天很重要的一点是，我们——无论是在 Snap 还是整个社会——越来越深思熟虑地考虑这些内容或声音是如何在社交媒体上被分发的。谁获得了分发？是不是只有那些说出最离谱、最负面言论的人？因为研究表明，你在社交媒体上越负面，获得的分发就越多，触达范围就越广。所以我认为，在理解社交媒体及其运作方式方面，我们正处于一个关键时刻：它不仅仅是我们使用方式的反映，也是我们在选择分发哪些声音时所做选择的反映。这就是为什么在 Snap，我们如此审慎地对待内容审核。我们审核在服务上分发的内容。我们想确保仇恨内容或暴力、极端暴力这类东西不会出现在 Snapchat 上。所以我确实认为，现在是一个真正的时刻，人们非常关注服务提供商的责任。我们当然感到有巨大的责任，要确保人们在使用我们的服务、在我们的服务上交流或通过我们的服务了解世界时，是以一种健康、负责任的方式进行的。

What a great question. I think through all of it, social media has been a reflection of the way that we use it, right? So it's played such an important role in big events in the world like Brexit. At the same time, the promise of social media—the idea that social media gives voice to an individual who might not get invited to go on TV, who might not get quoted in a newspaper, but who nevertheless has a really important thing to say or something that can reflect their point of view—I think that's incredibly enduring and incredibly valuable and has led to an enormous amount of positive change in the world. I think today one of the things that's so important is that we're increasingly, both at Snap but I think broadly as a society, thoughtful about how that content or those voices are being distributed on social media. Who's getting that distribution? Is it only the people who say things that are the most outrageous and the most negative? Because the research shows the more negative you are on social media, the more distribution you get, the more reach you'll get. So I think for us we're definitely at a moment in terms of understanding social media and the way that it works where it's not just a reflection of the way that we use it, but it's also a reflection of the choices we make in terms of the types of voices that we provide distribution to. So that's at Snap why we've been so thoughtful about having content moderation. We moderate the content that's distributed on our service. We want to make sure that hateful content or violence, extreme violence, these sorts of things are not available on Snapchat. So I do think there's a real moment right now where there's a lot of focus on the responsibility that services have. We certainly feel an enormous sense of responsibility to making sure that when people are using our service or communicating on our service or using our service to learn about the world, that they're doing so in a healthy and responsible way.

所以，当我们一起去中国旅行时——我记得是 2016 年或 2017 年，其中一次——你当时说，你在中国看到的创新令人惊叹，你觉得他们快要赶上美国了，甚至可能更好。你今天怎么看？

So when we traveled together to China, I think it was 2016 or 2017, one of those trips. You remarked at the time that the innovation you were seeing in China was kind of mind-blowing, and you felt like they were close to catching up to the United States or maybe even better. How do you feel today about that?

我认为中国的创新和创新速度是非凡的。在很多领域，中国被认为已经超越了美国，这不算什么秘密。我觉得最鼓舞我、也在我年轻时那次访问中留下深刻印象的一件事，就是他们的长远视角和长期规划。我一直记得，我当时太年轻了，在那些会议或房间里从来不敢说什么。我总是只是坐着看。但总是让我震惊的是，中国代表会说：‘我们是这样思考未来 20 年的。我们是这样思考未来 40 年、50 年的。我们是这样投资的。如果你们能分享美国是如何思考未来 40 或 50 年的，也许我们可以找到合作的机会。’而美国人通常只会说：‘嗯，在美国不是这样运作的。我们没有中央计划。我们是民主国家。’但这让我对美国的长远思考有了很多反思。美国一个非常有趣的地方是，与其像中国那样进行长期的集中规划，我们更像是拥有一些大想法，对吧？想想罗斯福，大想法。里根，大想法。

I think the innovation and the pace of innovation in China is extraordinary. I don't think it's a secret that in many domains China is considered to have outpaced the United States. I think one of the things that was most inspiring to me and made such an impression on me at such a young age visiting was the long-term perspective and long-term planning. I always remember that I was so young, I never felt comfortable saying anything in those meetings or in those rooms. I'd always just kind of sit and watch. But what was always so striking is that the Chinese representatives would say, 'Here's how we're thinking about the next 20 years. Here's how we're thinking about the next 40 years, the next 50 years. Here's how we're investing. And if you could share with us how you're thinking about the next 40 or 50 years in America, maybe we could find opportunities to work together.' And the Americans would kind of just say, 'Well, it doesn't really work that way in America. We don't have central planning. We've got a democracy.' But it made me think a lot about long-term thinking in America. And one of the things that's so interesting about America is, rather than having long-run sort of centralized planning like China has, we sort of have these big ideas, right? So if you think about FDR, big idea. Reagan, big idea.

这些大思想在提出后的几十年里往往会持续影响美国政治。它们通常不是某个人的想法，而是通过研究、知识工作、公众情绪以及我们试图解决的问题而涌现的。在那一刻，我感觉美国正接近从里根思想中获得实际效用的尾声。当时和现在我都觉得，美国迫切需要一个新的宏大思想——一个关于美国在世界上的地位以及我们如何在一个与二战后完全不同的地缘政治局势中竞争的新思想。美国很久没有真正的竞争对手了，所以这对美国来说是新的。里根关于政府的理念是对罗斯福思想的回应，后者因拖慢增长而失去效用。里根通过更小规模的政府释放了增长。现在，地缘政治环境变了，美国变了，我们的国家渴望一个关于未来的宏大思想。这一直是我非常感兴趣的领域。我喜欢问不同领域的人：“一百年后美国的教育会是什么样子？”我们的教育体系是一百年前发明的，还很新。所以问题是一百年后它能变成什么样？这很有趣，尤其是因为美国没有长期的中央规划。在一个我们可能更需要它的世界里，尽管多样性很好地服务了美国，我认为人们渴望方向。我不确定今天的领导力来自哪里。

These big ideas tend to animate American politics for many decades after their introduction. They're not usually one person's idea; they emerge through research, intellectual work, public sentiment, and the problems we're trying to solve. At that moment, I felt America was nearing the end of getting real utility from the Reagan idea. It felt, and still feels, that there's a real need for a new big idea in America—a new animating idea about America's place in the world and how we'll compete in a totally different geopolitical situation than after World War II. America hasn't had a real competitor in a long time, so this is new. The Reagan ideas around government responded to FDR's ideas, which were losing utility because they slowed growth. Reagan unlocked growth with smaller government. Now, the geopolitical environment has changed, America has changed, and our country is hungry for a big idea about our future. That's been a big area of interest for me. I love asking people in different domains, 'What does education in America look like a hundred years from now?' We invented our education system a hundred years ago. It's pretty new. So the question is what can it look like a hundred years from now? That's interesting because we don't have long-run centralized planning in the US. In a world where we might need more of it, despite diversity serving America well, I think there's a hunger for direction. I'm not sure where that leadership is coming from today.

是的，我认为它还在涌现。人们在尝试不同的想法，但这表明我们正接近里根时代的尾声。人们在测试新想法，看看哪些有效。你看到有人在谈论丰裕运动，或者世界分裂成区域势力范围——比如美洲成为美国的区域势力范围，我们可能别无选择。保卫全球海洋太昂贵了。但这意味着什么？全球贸易是由美国的霸权和我们保卫全球航运通道的能力支撑的。我觉得有一种感觉是我们过度扩张了，在保护自己和盟友方面。人们正在提出新想法，但我认为还没有一个关于未来的新想法真正突破。

Yeah, I think it's still emerging. People are experimenting with different ideas, but that signals we're nearing the end of the Reagan era. People are testing new ideas to see what works. You see folks talking about the abundance movement, or the world splitting into regional spheres—like the Americas as a regional sphere for the US, which we may not have a choice about. It's too expensive to defend the whole world's oceans. But what does that mean? Global trade was enabled by US supremacy and our ability to defend shipping channels. I think there's a sense that we've overextended ourselves in protecting ourselves and allies. People are putting forward new ideas, but I don't think we've seen a new idea for the future break through yet.

是的，我同意。这种对长期的思考启发了你。你是一家全球组织的负责人。你会把这种思考应用到 Snap 上吗？你会考虑这个组织的长期愿景吗？

Yeah, I agree. This thinking about the long term has inspired you. You're the head of a global organization. Do you apply that to Snap? Do you think about the long-term vision for this organization?

百分之百。这正是为什么十年前，当我们还是一家非常小的公司、几乎没有资源可以投资时，我们就说我们要重新发明计算机，通过制造眼镜让它更人性化。这过去十年一直是我们的使命。这需要很多牺牲。我们投入了巨资。我们本可以优化盈利和增长，华尔街喜欢这些，但我们却持续而刻意地投资于重新发明计算机，因为我们认为这是我们可以对世界产生的影响。Snap 的一个独特之处在于，由于我们的投票结构——鲍比和我控制公司——我们能够进行长期投资。我们一直把这视为我们的主要战略优势。许多上市公司无法进行长期投资，因为股东施压要求短期利润。所以我们能够持续而刻意地投资于这个长期愿景，这是一个巨大的优势。

100%. That's exactly why 10 years ago, when we were a very small company with barely the resources to invest, we said we're going to reinvent the computer and make it more human by creating glasses. That has been our driving mission for the last 10 years. It's required a lot of sacrifice. We've invested a ton. We could have optimized for profitability and growth, which Wall Street loves, but instead we've consistently and deliberately invested in reinventing the computer because that's the impact we think we can have on the world. One thing that's unique about Snap, especially given our voting structure—Bobby and I control the company—we're able to invest over the long term. We always think of that as our chief strategic advantage. Many public companies can't invest long-term because shareholders pressure near-term profits. So we can consistently and deliberately invest in this long-term vision, which is a huge advantage.

你一直把这视为战略优势。这是一个你非常小心保护的资产吗？因为在公司里维持这一点很难。那么它如何改变了你？你非常年轻时就创办了公司，现在你更有经验了。在过去的 14 年里，你的智慧是如何增长的？

You've kept that as a strategic advantage. Is this an asset you protect very carefully, because maintaining that is hard in companies. So how has it changed you? You started this very young, and now you're a little more seasoned. How has your wisdom grown in the last 14 years?

天哪。创办公司几乎完全关乎人。所以我最大的旅程是从绘制应用界面和小幽灵图标到领导人们——这现在是我的核心责任。领导力很难，因为人是不同的。作为领导者，释放我们共事的所有人不同且独特的能力非常重要。领导力不是一刀切的。你必须调整自己的风格，以激发出不同人的最佳状态，并找到与他们保持亲近、理解他们面临挑战的方法。

Oh my goodness. Building a company is virtually all about people. So the biggest journey I've been on is going from drawing the screens of the app and the little ghost icon to leading people—that's now my core responsibility. People leadership is hard because people are different. It's so important as a leader to unlock the different and unique capabilities of all the people we work with. Leadership is not one size fits all. You have to adapt your style to bring out the best in different people and find ways to stay close to them, to understand the challenges they're going through.

我发现自己成长了很多，但在成长和变化中，我发现唯一始终有效的方法就是去和人们交谈。所以，如果我想了解情况，想和团队建立联系，我就会在办公室走走，和人们聊聊正在发生的事、他们的经历。他们身处一线，服务客户，服务社区，他们能立刻——而且比我更清楚——知道我们在哪些方面可以做得更好、更不同。所以，我认为领导力就是贴近人们、关爱你的团队。我常对团队说，如果你不爱你的团队，你就成不了领导者。这是领导力的前提。我感到非常幸运能与如此优秀的人共事。对我来说，学习如何成为领导者，是整个旅程中最激动人心、最具挑战性、也最令人谦卑的部分。人很难搞。我常说，与人相处，快就是慢，慢就是快。你逼得太紧，就会遇到阻力；但慢慢来，反而能更快到达。

I mean, I've just found that I've grown a lot, but in growing and changing, the one thing I found always works is just going and talking to people. So, if I want to understand what's going on, I want to connect with our team, I just go walk around our office, talk to people about what's going on, what they're experiencing. They're on the front lines. They're serving our customers. They're serving our community and they know instantly and better than I do what we can be doing better and differently. So, I think for me leadership is about just staying close to people and loving your people. You can't be a leader if you don't love your people. That's the prerequisite to leadership. I just feel so blessed to work with such great people. That to me has been the most exciting, most challenging, most humbling part of the journey, really learning how to be a leader. People are hard. I always say, with people fast is slow and slow is fast. You push them too hard, you're going to get resistance, but you go slowly, you'll get there faster.

最后一个问题。曾经，所有人都认为地球是平的。现在有些人仍然这么认为。但大体上，我们知道它不是。我们今天在什么事情上搞错了？200 年后，人们回顾时会说：‘哇，我们当时真的完全搞错了。’

Last question. At some point, everybody thought the world was flat. Some people still do. For the most part, we know that it's not. What are we getting wrong today? What 200 years from now we'll look back and be like, 'Wow, we really were off on that one.'

我认为，在更长的时间尺度上，我们会找到更多科学证据，证明我们所有人以各种方式相互关联。这个星球上生命的相互关联。我喜欢美国的一点是，我们如此推崇个体，推崇拥有独特想法的能力。在美国，我们热爱牛仔。我认为这是我们作为国家的优势。但同时，在我有限的人生经历中，我也清楚地看到，我们同样深深地相互关联，这种关联方式可能无法用我们今天拥有的工具、科学或方法来解释，但在未来会变得非常清晰。既有有形的，也有无形的。

I think over a much longer extended period of time, we will find much more scientific evidence of the interconnectedness of all of us, in so many different ways. The interconnectedness of life on this planet. I think one of the things I love about America is how much we celebrate the individual, the ability to have unique and different ideas. We love a cowboy in America. I think that's such a strength in terms of who we are as a country. But at the same time, I think it's so clear in the limited life experience that I have that we're also so deeply interconnected in ways that maybe we can't explain today with the tools or the science or the methods we have available, but that will become abundantly clear in the future. Both tangible and intangible.

好的。那么，谢谢你，Evan Spiegel。谢谢。我很感激今天的对话。

All right. Well, thank you, Evan Spiegel. Thank you. I appreciate today.

是的，非常棒。很有趣。

Yeah, it was great. Good fun.