埃隆·马斯克谈 AI、机器人与未来

想知道杰夫·贝佐斯在干嘛。他肯定在打睾酮，看起来壮得很。

Wonder what Jeff Bezos is doing. He's doing some definitely doing some testosterone. He looks jacked.

他看起来壮了，对吧？是啊。但他不是一下子变壮的，50 岁到 59 岁，不到一年就从细脖子书呆子变成了巨石强森那样。

He looks jacked, right? Yeah. But he didn't like quick at age like at 50 at age 59 in less than a year he went from pencil-neck geek to looking like the Rock.

是啊，像个迷你阿尔法男。对，脖子比头还粗了。

Yeah. Like a little miniature alpha fella. Yeah. Like his neck got bigger than his head.

对，他变大了。但他早年的照片里脖子像面条一样。

Yeah. He got bigger. But then like his earlier pictures his neck's like a noodle.

我支持这种行为。我喜欢看到他往这个方向发展，挺好的。而且他的声音低了两个八度。我希望你也往那个方向走。

I support this activity. I like to see him going in this direction which is fine. And his voice dropped like two octaves. I want you to move in that direction as well.

我觉得我们能做到。

I think we can achieve this.

我觉得我们能达到 gigachad 的水平。人们就是这么叫的。

I think we can achieve gigachad. That's what people called it.

那家伙在哪儿？Bele？呃，我不知道他在哪。

Where is that guy? Bele. Uh I don't know where he is.

那是个真人。艺术家。对。

That's like a real guy. The artist. Yeah.

不。哦，gigachad。哦，gigachad。对。我不知道那是不是真人。很难说。

No. Oh, gigachad. Oh, gigachad. Yeah. I don't know if that's a real guy. It's hard to say.

不，是真人。

No, it is a real guy.

是真人。他有疯狂的下巴和完美雕刻的头发。

It is a real guy. He's got the crazy jaw and like perfect sculpted hair.

是啊，嗯，我是说，他们可能夸张了一点，但是呃，不，我觉得他实际上就是那个样子。

Yeah. Well, I mean, they may have exaggerated a little bit, but um but uh No, I think I think he actually just kind of looked like that in reality.

哇。嗯，所以他是个长相很独特的人。

Wow. Um so like he's a pretty unique looking individual.

我觉得我们能达到这个。那边那个家伙，是真人。

I think we can achieve this. That guy right there, that's a real guy.

那是真人。我一直以为是 CGI。

That's a real dude. I always thought that was CGI.

不，我觉得其中一张，右上角那张不是他。不是。但左边那张是真人。不，那是假的，兄弟。那是假的。有那种恐怖谷的感觉，对吧？

No, I think one of I think the upper right one is not him. That's not But that one to the left of that like that's real. No, that's that's artificial, bro. That's fake. That's got that uncanny valley feel to it, doesn't it?

不是不可能。不，不，不是不可能达到，但不可能保持那种瘦度。我是说，那就像，到了那个点，他们还在脱水什么的。

It's not impossible. No, no, it's not impossible to achieve, but it's not possible to maintain that kind of leanness. I mean, that's like you're also at that point they're he's dehydrating and all sorts of things.

哦，是基于真人。对。对。基于，对，但不是真人。他到底长什么样？

Oh, it's based on a real person. Yeah. Yeah. Based on, right, but it's not a real person. What does he really look like?

那些图片，我觉得，有些是。那是真的吗？好吧。看起来是真的。看起来像个很壮的健美运动员。

Like those images, I think, are Some of them are. Is that real? Okay. That looks real. That looks like a really jacked bodybuilder.

对。对，看起来是真的。那是可以达到的。但有几张图片你会想，‘这怎么回事？’

Yeah. Yeah, that looks real. Like that's achievable. But there's a few of those images where you're just like, 'What's going on here?'

对。对。对。完全同意。嗯，我是说，你看到那个家伙，那是真人吗？

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Totally. Um Well, I mean, you see that guy is that the that's the real dude?

嗯，有个冰岛人，演雷神的。

Well, there's that Icelandic dude who's Thor.

哦，对。跳冰湖的那个。嗯，演魔山的那个。哦，那个人。

Oh, yeah. The guy who jumps in the frozen lakes and Well, the guy who played the mountain. Um Oh, that guy.

那就像个变异的强壮人类。对。就像他会出现在 X 战警里一样，你知道吗？

That is like a mutant strong human. Yes. Like he would be in the X-Men or something, you know?

他就像，不像，呃，还有那个，你知道，你见过那个帐篷和帐篷袋的梗吗？嗯，你知道，就像帐篷很难塞进去。哦，对。对。没错。然后有张他和女朋友的照片。太搞笑了。

He's just like not like uh and there's that you know have you seen that meme tent and tent bag? Um you know how like it's like it's really hard to get the tent tent in Oh, right. Right. That's true. Then there's a picture of him and his girlfriend. That's hilarious.

对，我不知道怎么塞进去的，你知道吗？看起来太小了。

Yeah, that's I don't know how it gets in there, you know? It's like it seems too small.

我见过布莱恩·肖。布莱恩·肖是世界上最强壮的人。他几乎 7 英尺高，400 磅重。他的骨密度是五亿分之一。所以大概只有 16 个人这样。他是个巨人，就像那个家伙一样。但我们见过他。他在母舰的休息室和我们一起。就像，好吧，如果这是大卫和歌利亚的时代，这就是真正的巨人，像圣经里的巨人。

I met Brian Shaw. Brian Shaw is like the world's most powerful man. And he's almost 7 feet tall. He's 400 lb. And his bone density is 1 in 500 million people. So there's one it's like there's like maybe 16 people. He's an enormous human being. like a legitimate giant just like that guy. But we met him. He was hanging out with us in the green room of the mother ship. It's like, okay, if this was like David and Goliath days, like this is an actual giant like the giants of the Bible.

偶尔会有超级巨人。这是真的。不是又高又瘦的篮球运动员，而是 7 英尺 400 磅的力量举运动员。你尤其不想看他。就是那个人。看看有没有他站在普通人旁边的照片。

Once in a while they get a super giant person. This is a real one. Like not a tall skinny basketball player, like a 7 foot 400 lb powerlifter. Like you don't want to especially look at him. That's the guy. See if there's a photo of him standing next to like a regular human.

我正想找。就是这个。就是他。有张他站在阿诺德旁边的照片，所有人都显得很小。

I was trying to get There it is. That's him right there. Like there's like there's like one of him with next to standing next to Arnold and stuff and it's where everyone just looks tiny.

我觉得他其实是个很酷的家伙。

I mean I think he's a pretty cool dude actually.

哦，布莱恩很酷。也很聪明。不寻常，你知道，你期望任何人那么大。肯定是个不。

Oh, Brian's very cool. Very smart, too. Unusually, you know, you expect anybody to be that big. It's got to be a No.

对。还有巨人安德烈，他很棒。他在《公主新娘》里演得很好，不，他本身就是个传奇。

Yeah. There was Andre the Giant who was awesome. He was great in Princess Bride and No, he was just awesome period.

对。对。所以，我们之前谈到山姆·奥特曼和塔克的采访，我就想，我们可能应该在节目里聊聊这个，因为这是我见过最疯狂的采访之一。

Yeah. Yeah. So, we were talking about this interview with Sam Altman and Tucker, and I was like, we should probably just talk about this on the air because it is one of the craziest interviews I think I've ever seen in my life.

对。

Yeah.

塔克开始提到一个举报人，什么的。一个举报人，你知道，自杀了，但看起来不像。

Where Tucker starts bringing up this guy who was a whistleblower, whatever. A whistleblower who, you know, committed suicide, but it doesn't look like it.

他正在和山姆·奥特曼谈这个。山姆·奥特曼说，‘你在指控我吗？’他说，‘不，不，不。我没有。我只是说我觉得有人杀了他。’

And he's talking to Sam Altman about this. And Sam Altman was like, 'Are you accusing me?' He's like, 'No, no, no. I'm not. I'm just saying I think someone killed him.'

对。而且应该调查。

Yeah. And like it should be investigated.

对。不能就这么结案。

Yeah. Not just drop the case.

看起来他们就这么结案了。对。对。但他父母认为他是被谋杀的。

It seems like they just dropped the case. Yeah. Yeah. But his parents think he was murdered.

对。监控摄像头的线被剪断了。两个房间有血迹。房间里还有别人的假发。

Yeah. The wires to a security camera were cut. Blood in two rooms. Someone else's wig was in the room.

两个房间有血迹。别人的假发。假发。假发。对。不是他的假发。

Blood in two rooms. Someone else's wig. Wig. Wig. Yes. Not his wig.

房间里放着假发不正常。

Not normal to have a wig laying around.

对。而且他在据称自杀前还点了 DoorDash。

Yes. And he ordered DoorDash right before allegedly committing suicide.

这看起来不寻常，你知道吗？

Which seems unusual, you know?

对。就像，你知道吗，我要点个披萨，转念一想，我还是自杀吧。这看起来心态变化太快了。

Yeah. It's like, you know, let's I'm going to order pizza on second thoughts, I'll kill myself. It seems like that's a very rapid change in mindset.

非常奇怪。尤其是父母，他们根本不相信他自杀了。

It's very weird. And especially the parents they don't believe he committed suicide at all.

没有遗书什么的。

Has no note or anything.

没有。

No.

对。看起来很明显。而且你知道，一个价值数十亿美元的 AI 公司的举报人可能被干掉，这并非不可能。

Yeah. It seems pretty up. And you know, the idea that a whistleblower for an enormous AI company that's worth billions of dollars might get whacked, that's not outside the pale.

我是说，这简直就像电影情节。

I mean, it's straight out of a movie.

简直像电影情节，但有时候电影情节就是真的。

Right out of a movie, but right out of a movie is real sometimes.

对，没错。

Yeah. Right. Exactly.

有点奇怪，我觉得他们应该做一次彻底的调查。比如，彻底调查有什么坏处？

It's a little weird that I think they should do a proper investigation. Like, what's the downside on that proper investigation?

没错。

Right.

不。

No.

是啊，当然。但整个对话太诡异了。

Yeah, for sure. But the whole exchange is so bizarre.

是啊。Sam Altman 被指控谋杀时的反应很诡异。

Yeah. Sam Altman's reaction to being accused of murder is bizarre.

听着，我不知道他是否有罪，但不可能看起来更有罪了。

Look, I don't know if he's guilty, but it's not possible to look more guilty.

所以我就想，或者说看起来更奇怪。

So, I'm like, or look more weird.

是啊。

Yeah.

你知道，可能只是他的社交方式。比如，他可能面对冲突时就是怪怪的，脑子一片空白，你懂吗？但如果有人指控我杀了 Jamie，比如 Jamie 是个吹哨人然后被干掉了，那我就会说：“等等，你什么意思？你在指控我杀了我朋友吗？”就像，“你到底在说什么？”我会更愤怒一点。

You know, maybe it's just his social thing. Like, maybe he's just odd with confrontation and it just goes blank, you know? But if somebody was accusing me of killing Jamie, like if Jamie was a whistleblower and Jamie got whacked and then I'd be like, "Wait, what are you? Are you accusing me of killing my friend?" Like, "What the hell are you talking about?" I would be a little more irate.

是啊，没错。你知道，我会有点难过。

Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. You know, it would be I would be a little upset.

是啊。你会坚持彻底调查。

Yeah. It'd be like, you'd certainly insist on a thorough investigation.

是啊，而不是试图掩盖。

Yeah. As opposed to trying to sweep it under the rug.

是啊。我不会假设他是自杀的。我会怀疑。如果 Tucker 告诉我故事的那部分，我会说：“那看起来确实像谋杀。我们应该查查。”

Yeah. I wouldn't assume that he committed suicide. I would be suspicious. If Tucker was telling me that aspect of the story, I'd be like, "That does seem like a murder. We should look into this."

我的意思是，所有迹象都指向谋杀。不是说 Tim Molvin 和谋杀有关，但两个房间都有血。

I mean, all signs point to it being a murder. Not saying Tim Molvin had anything to do with the murder, but blood in two rooms.

两个房间都有血。是啊，还有安全摄像头的线，以及自杀前刚点的 DoorDash。没有遗书。他父母认为他是被谋杀的，我认识了解他的人说他并没有自杀倾向。所以我就想，你为什么急着下结论？

It's blood in two rooms. Like, yeah, there's the wires to the security camera and the DoorDash being ordered right before suicide. No suicide note. His parents think he was murdered and the people that I know who knew him said he was not suicidal. So I'm like, why would you jump to the conclusion?

父母起诉了房东？

Parents sued the landlord?

他们起诉了儿子的房东，指控儿子旧金山公寓楼的业主和管理人员参与了对其死亡的大规模掩盖。

They sued the son's landlord, alleged the owners and the managers of their son's San Francisco apartment building were part of a widespread cover-up of his death.

房东。是啊。有一堆奇怪的事。他们说楼里有些包裹不见了。有人说他们看到包裹还在送，然后突然全消失了。

The landlord. Yeah. There's a bunch of weird stuff. They said there were like packages missing from the building. Some people said they saw packages still being delivered and all of a sudden they all disappeared.

嗯。但可能是有人一直偷包裹。门廊海盗的情况。

Huh. But that could be people stealing packages all the time. The porch pirate situation.

是啊。说他们没有尽到保护义务。

Yeah. Says they failed to safeguard.

而且，我是说，那些可怜的父母经历儿子那样死去，创伤有多大。愿上帝保佑他们。经历了那种事他们怎么能保持理智？他们可能悲痛欲绝。谁知道他们现在相信什么。

Also, I mean, the amount of trauma those poor parents have gone through with their son dying like that. I mean, it must God bless them. And how could they stay sane after something like that? They're probably so grief-stricken. Who knows what they believe at this point.

是啊。应该问问 Epstein 是不是自杀的。

Yeah. It should have asked if Epstein killed himself.

是啊，就是 Cash Mattel 那事。Cash Mattel 和 Dan Bonino 试图让所有人相信那个。好吧。

Yeah, that's the Cash Mattel thing. Cash Mattel and Dan Bonino trying to convince everybody of that. Like, okay.

警卫不在，摄像头坏了，警卫在睡觉。摄像头不工作。他和一个巨大的类固醇健美运动员关在一起，那人是个杀人犯，还是个坏警察。所有这些都很疯狂。所有这些都很疯狂，就像他宁愿自杀也不愿揭露他所有的亿万富翁朋友。

The guards weren't there and the cameras stopped working and the guards were asleep. The cameras weren't working. He had a giant steroided-up bodybuilder guy that he was sharing a cell with that was a murderer who was a bad cop. Like, all of it's kind of nuts. All of it's kind of nuts like that he would just kill himself rather than reveal all of his billionaire friends.

是啊。

Yeah.

然后你看到 Tim Dillon 和 Chris Cuomo 讨论这个了吗？

And then did you see Tim Dillon talking to Chris Cuomo about this?

我看到了。他喜欢这个想法。

I did. He liked the idea.

Chris Cuomo 看起来太蠢了。Tim 只是列举了所有，然后他说“我同意这很奇怪。”当然奇怪了，Chris。天哪。你不能随波逐流。你得把事情想清楚。如果你仔细想想，你就会觉得，我不认为他是自杀的。没人认为。你得为情报机构工作才会认为他是自杀的。

Chris Cuomo just looked so stupid. Tim just listed off all the Tim just and he's like "I agree it is strange." Like of course it's strange, Chris. Jesus Christ. You can't just go with the tide. You got to think things through. And if you think that one through, you're like, I don't think he killed himself. Nobody does. You'd have to work for an intelligence agency to think he killed himself.

确实看起来不太可能。非常非常不可能。所有线索都指向谋杀。

It does seem unlikely. It seems highly unlikely. Highly, highly unlikely. All roads point to murder.

是的。指向他们必须除掉他，因为他知道太多了。不管他到底在做什么，不管他是什么资产，不管他在搞什么，显然非常有效。

Yes. Point to they had to get rid of him because he knew too much. Whatever the hell he was doing, whatever kind of an asset he was, whatever thing he was up to, you know, was apparently very effective.

是的。而且很多人被妥协了。你看，你的哥们比尔·盖茨现在说气候变化不是什么大事。就像，大家放松。我知道过去十五年我把你们吓坏了，但是啊，我们会没事的。

Yes. And a lot of people are compromised. You see, your boy Bill Gates is now saying climate change is not a big deal. Like, relax everybody. I know I scared the hell out of you for the last decade and a half, but ah, we're going to be fine.

是啊。我是说，你知道，就像我进演播室之前说的，每天都有一些疯狂的新事发生。感觉现实在加速。

Yeah. I mean, you know, as I was saying just before coming into the studio, every day there's some crazy wild new thing that's happening. It feels like reality is accelerating.

每天如此。而且每天越来越荒谬，以至于模拟越来越不可否认。

It's every day. And every day it's like more and more ridiculous to the point where the simulation is more and more undeniable.

是啊。真的感觉像模拟，你知道吗？就像，拜托。这种情况的概率有多大？

Yeah. Yeah. It really feels like simulation, you know? It's like, come on. What are the odds that this could be the case?

你有关注 Three Atlas 吗？你在看那颗彗星吗？

Are you paying attention at all to Three Atlas? Are you watching the comet?

是啊。不管它是什么。

Yeah. Whatever it is.

是啊。我是说，有一件事我可以这么说，听着，如果我知道任何外星人的证据，Joe，我向你保证。我会来你的节目，并在节目中揭露它。

Yeah. I mean, one thing I can say is like, look, if I was aware of any evidence of aliens, Joe, you have my word. I will come on your show and I will reveal it on the show.

好的。

Okay.

是啊，这是个好交易。

Yeah, that's a good deal.

是啊，挺不错的。

Yeah, it's pretty good.

我相信你。好的，谢谢。

I'll believe you. Yeah, thank you.

我会信守承诺的。所以，好的。我会让你兑现的。

I'll stick to my promises. So, all right. I'll hold you to that.

是啊。而且我永远不会自杀，说清楚。

Yeah. And I'm never committing suicide, to be clear.

我也不认为你会。

I don't think you would either.

所以，在镜头前，伙计们，我永远不会自杀。

So, on camera, guys, I am never committing suicide ever.

如果有人说你自杀了，我会全力抗争。我不会相信的。

If someone says you committed suicide, I will fight tooth and nail. I will not believe it.

关于 Three Atlas 的事，这名字其实挺酷的。

The thing about the Three Atlas is it's a hell of a name actually.

是啊，第三只眼，听起来像第三只眼之类的。

Yeah, it's a third eye sounds like third eye or something.

是啊，确实。Three Atlas 是探测到的第三个星际天体。

Yeah, it does. Three Atlas is the third interstellar object that's detected.

好的。

Okay.

是啊。Avi Loeb 几天前在播客上谈过这个。

Yeah. Avi Loeb was on the podcast a couple days ago talking about it.

是啊。有可能。我不知道。但显然今天他们说它改变了轨道。你看到了吗，Jamie？

Yeah. It could be. I don't know. But apparently today they're saying that it's changed course. Did you see that, Jamie?

Avi 今天说了些什么。我发给你。我知道在 Reddit 上。

Avi said something today. I'll send it to you. I know it's on Reddit.

给你，Jamie。我现在就发给你。这很迷人。也很迷人因为它几乎完全由镍构成，不管它是什么。而这里存在的唯一方式显然是工业合金。

Here you go, Jamie. I'll send it to you right now. It's fascinating. It's fascinating also because it's made almost entirely of nickel, whatever it is. And the only way that exists here is industrial alloys apparently.

大多数不是，但确实有一些彗星和小行星主要由镍构成。地球上开采镍的地方，实际上就是富含镍的小行星或彗星撞击地球形成的矿床。那些都来自撞击。你肯定不想当时在场，因为任何东西都会被摧毁。如今镍和钴的来源就在那里。

Most no, there are definitely comets and asteroids that are made primarily of nickel in fact. The places where you mine nickel on Earth are actually where an asteroid or comet hit Earth that was a nickel-rich deposit. Those are from impacts. You definitely didn't want to be there at the time because anything would have been obliterated. That's where the sources of nickel and cobalt are these days.

所以，这就是 Ovi O Lope。几小时前，首次出现了非引力加速度的迹象，意味着除了引力之外还有别的东西在影响它的轨迹。有意思。所以它主要是镍，铁很少，而铁在地球上只以合金形式存在，但你面对的是另一颗行星。

So, this is Ovi O Lope. A few hours ago, the first hint of non-gravitational acceleration was indicated, meaning something other than gravity is affecting its trajectory. Interesting. So it's mostly nickel, very little iron, which on Earth only exists in alloys, but you're dealing with another planet.

有些情况是，存在非常富含镍的小行星或陨石，很重，来自太空。

There are cases where there are very nickel-rich asteroids or meteorites that are heavy, something from space.

是啊，但如果你全用镍造飞船，不一定就会很重。哦对。而且巨大，曼哈顿那么大，全是镍。那有点疯狂。

Yeah, it doesn't mean it'll be a very heavy spaceship if you make it all out of nickel. Oh yeah. And huge. The size of Manhattan and all nickel. That's kind of nuts.

是啊，那是艘很重的飞船。

Yeah, that's a heavy spaceship.

如果它撞上来，那真是个大问题。

That's a real problem if it hits.

是的。不，它会摧毁一个大陆之类的东西。

Yes. No, it would obliterate a continent type of thing.

可能更糟。

Maybe worse.

可能会杀死大部分人类，甚至全部。取决于总质量。在化石记录中，可以说有五次大灭绝事件。最大的一次是二叠纪灭绝，几乎消灭了所有生命，但那持续了几百万年。侏罗纪那次很确定是小行星。但发生过五次大灭绝事件，但他们不算那些仅仅摧毁一个大陆的事件。

Probably kill most of human life, if not all of us. It depends on the total mass. In the fossil record, there are arguably five major extinction events. The biggest one is the Permian extinction, where almost all life was eliminated, but that occurred over several million years. The Jurassic one is pretty definitively an asteroid. But there have been five major extinction events, but they don't count the ones that merely take out a continent.

所以仅仅是。

So merely.

是的，因为除非足以引发全球性大灭绝，否则那些不会出现在化石记录中。所以历史上有很多撞击会摧毁比如半个北美大陆的所有生命。这样的撞击在历史进程中发生过很多次。

Yeah, because those don't show up in the fossil record unless it's enough to cause a mass extinction event throughout Earth. So there have been many impacts that would have destroyed all life on, say, half of North America. There have been many such impacts through the course of history.

是啊。而且我们现在对此无能为力。

Yeah. And there's nothing we can do about it right now.

是的。有一次撞击西伯利亚，摧毁了几百平方英里。

Yeah. There was one that hit Siberia and destroyed a few hundred square miles.

哦，那是通古斯事件。

Oh, that's the Tunguska.

是的。就是 1920 年代那次，对吧？

Yeah. That's the one from the 1920s, right?

是的。就是那个与我们每年六月和十一月经历的流星或彗星风暴吻合的事件，他们认为那是新仙女木期的原因。

Yeah. That's the one that coincides with the meteor or comet storm that we go through every June and every November, which they think is responsible for that younger dryas.

是啊。所有这些都很疯狂。

Yeah. All that stuff is crazy.

在我们继续之前，感谢你让我们参观 SpaceX，并让我们在现场观看火箭发射。这是我一生中见过的最酷的事情之一。我们以为只有半英里远，杰米以为是一英里，结果差不多有两英里远。你能在胸口感受到震动。你必须戴耳塞，在两英里外都能在胸口感受到。太神奇了。然后和你一起进入指挥中心，观看所有星链卫星，通过不同摄像头实时看到它一路飞到澳大利亚。多少分钟？大概 35、40 分钟。它降落在澳大利亚，太疯狂了。太棒了。绝对精彩。星舰太厉害了。

Thank you before we go any further for letting us have a tour of SpaceX and letting us be there for the rocket launch. One of the absolute coolest things I've ever seen in my life. We thought it was only half a mile, Jamie thought it was a mile away, turned out it's almost two miles away. And you feel it in your chest. You have to wear earplugs and you feel it in your chest and it's 2 miles away. It was amazing. And then to go with you up into the command center and to watch all the Starlink satellites with all the different cameras and all in real time as it made its way all the way to Australia. How many minutes? Like 35, 40 minutes. Wild it touched down in Australia. Crazy. It was amazing. Absolutely amazing. The Starship's awesome.

是的。其实任何人都可以去看发射。你可以去南帕德里岛，那里看发射视野很好。很多春假游客都去那里。但我们会频繁地从南德克萨斯州的星城基地发射。我们正式把它设为一个城市。所以它实际上是一个合法的城市，德克萨斯州的星城。你不常听到有人说，嘿，我们建了个城市。在过去，创业公司就是召集一群人，说‘嘿，我们去建个镇吧’。 literally，那就是过去的创业方式。

Yeah. Anyone can go watch the launch actually. You can just go to South Padre Island, it has a great view of the launch. It's where a lot of spring breakers go. But we'll be flying pretty frequently out of Starbase in South Texas. We formally incorporated it as a city. So it's actually a legally actual city, Starbase, Texas. It's not that often you hear like, hey, we made a city. That used to be like in the old days, a startup would be you go and gather a bunch of people and say, 'Hey, let's go make a town.' Literally, that would have been startups in the old days.

或者一个国家。

Or a country.

是的。或者一个国家。

Yeah. Or a country.

是啊。如果今天你尝试那样做，会有大问题。如今国家方面的事情太固定了。如果你有一个稳固的岛屿，也许能成功。你知道，就像 at owns lai。

Yeah. If you tried doing that today, there'd be a real problem. Things are so set in stone on the country front these days. You might pull it off if you got a solid island. You know, like at owns lai.

是的，如果你投入足够努力，也许能建立一个新的国家。

Yeah, you could probably if you put enough effort into it, you could make a new country.

这个是不同的。这是你要接住的那个，对吧？还是那个？

This is one of the different ones. This is one of the ones that you catch, right? Or is that one?

是的，那是助推器。那就是超重型助推器。它有 33 台发动机。到第四版时，它将有大约 10,000 吨推力。目前大约有 7,000 到 8,000 吨推力。这是有史以来最大的飞行器。

Yeah, that's the booster. So that's the Super Heavy booster. It has 33 engines. By version four, it will have about 10,000 tons of thrust. Right now it's about 7,000 to 8,000 tons of thrust. That's the largest flying object ever made.

我不得不向某人解释。他们问，‘如果他那么聪明，为什么火箭总是爆炸？’因为电视上有个白痴。有个人在接受采访，他们谈到你。他说，‘哦，我觉得他是个傻逼。’他说，‘为什么他的火箭老是爆炸？’我不得不解释。是的。因为那是找出公差极限的唯一方法。你必须测试几个边界情况。

I had to explain to someone. They were going, 'Why do they blow up all the time if he's so smart?' Because there was this idiot on television. Some guy was being interviewed and they were talking about you. And he goes, 'Oh, I think he's a fuckwit.' And he goes, 'Why do his rockets keep blowing up?' And I had to explain. Yeah. Because it's the only way you find out what the tolerances are. You have to test a few corners of the box.

所以当你进行新的火箭开发项目时，你必须做所谓的探索极限，即边界情况，你说最坏情况这样，最坏情况那样，以找出极限在哪里。所以你会爆炸，当然在开发过程中有时也会意外爆炸。

So when you do a new rocket development program, you have to do what's called exploring the limits, the corners of the box where you say worst case this, worst case that, to figure out where the limits are. So you blow up, not admittedly in the development process sometimes blows up accidentally.

但我们故意让它经历比正常飞行恶劣得多的飞行状态，这样当我们载人或有贵重货物时，它不会爆炸。例如，在你看到的那次飞行中，我们故意在一些最糟糕的位置拆掉了星舰的隔热瓦，看看失去一块瓦片是否会造成灾难性后果。尽管如此，星舰还是成功在印度洋澳大利亚以西实现了软着陆。从德克萨斯到那里大约用了 354 分钟。

But we intentionally subject it to a flight regime that is much worse than what we expect in normal flight, so that when we put people on board or valuable cargo, it doesn't blow up. For example, for the flight you saw, we deliberately took heat shield tiles off the Starship in some of the worst locations to see if losing a tile there is catastrophic or not. Nonetheless, Starship was able to do a soft landing in the Indian Ocean west of Australia. It got there from Texas in about 354 minutes.

所以它即使在你让它处于隔热层受损的情况下还是着陆了。

So it landed even though you put it through this situation where it has compromised shield.

它走了一条异常高温的轨迹，还缺了隔热瓦，就是为了看看它是否还能软着陆，结果它做到了。它确实被烧出了一些洞，但足够坚固，还是着陆了，因为它像一颗燃烧的流星一样飞进来。你可以看到实时视频。

It had an unusually hot trajectory with missing tiles to see if it would still make a soft landing, which it did. It did have some holes burnt into it, but it was robust enough to land despite that, because it's coming in like a blazing meteor. You can see the real-time video.

再告诉我一次速度，因为那太疯狂了。

Tell me the speed again because it was bananas.

是的，大约每小时 17000 英里，也就是 25 倍音速。所以可以想象它比突击步枪子弹快 12 倍，步枪子弹大约 2 马赫。或者与手枪子弹相比，手枪子弹是亚音速的，它大约快 30 倍。而且它非常巨大。

Yeah, it's about 17,000 mph, like 25 times the speed of sound. So think of it as 12 times faster than a bullet from an assault rifle, which is around Mach 2. Or compared to a bullet from a handgun, which is subsonic, it's about 30 times faster. And it's huge.

比手枪子弹快 30 倍，还有摩天大楼那么大。那太快了。看着太疯狂了。太令人兴奋了。我感觉自己在见证历史，就像电影里的场景。我们走过的时候，你有没有那种感觉，就是‘哦，这比我想象的大多了’？

30 times faster than a bullet from a handgun and it's the size of a skyscraper. That's fast. It's so wild to see. It's so exciting. I felt like I was witnessing history, like a scene in a movie. As we were walking through, didn't you have the feeling where you're like, oh this is way bigger than I thought?

巨大。

Gigantic.

而且你们制造的数量之多。这是一个版本，你们很快就会有新版本了。

And the sheer numbers of them that you guys are making. And this is a version and you have a new updated version coming soon.

它稍微长一点，尖度一样。带有格栅区域的级间段现在与助推段集成在一起。我们采用所谓的热分离，即在飞船仍连接在助推器上时点燃飞船发动机。助推器发动机仍在推进，但随后我们点燃飞船发动机，飞船发动机实际上会从助推器上脱离，尽管助推器发动机仍在燃烧。所以火焰会穿过那个格栅区域，但在下一版火箭中，我们将格栅区域集成到助推段中。下一版将配备猛禽 3 发动机，这是一个巨大的改进。你可能在大厅里见过——猛禽 1、2 和 3。你可以看到在简化方面的巨大进步。我们应该在那里放一块牌匾，展示我们减轻了多少重量、降低了多少成本，以及提高了多少效率和推力。猛禽 3 的推力几乎是猛禽 1 的两倍。它看起来像是少了零件，非常干净。

It's a little longer, same amount of pointy. The interstage section with the grill area is now integrated with the boost stage. We do what's called hot staging, where we light the ship engines while it's still attached to the booster. The booster engines are still thrusting, but then we light the ship engines and they pull away from the booster even though the booster engines are still firing. So it's blasting flame through that grill section, but we integrate that grill section into the boost stage with the next version of the rocket. The next version will have the Raptor 3 engines, which are a huge improvement. You may have seen them in the lobby—Raptor 1, 2, and 3. You can see the dramatic improvement in simplicity. We should put a plaque there to show how much we reduced weight, cost, and improved efficiency and thrust. Raptor 3 has almost twice the thrust of Raptor 1. It looks like it's got parts missing, very clean.

火箭上有多少台？

How many of them are on the rocket?

助推器上有 33 台。每台猛禽发动机产生的推力是 747 所有四台发动机的两倍。所以那台发动机比 747 的发动机小，但产生的推力几乎是其 10 倍。推重比极高。

There are 33 on the booster. Each Raptor engine produces twice as much thrust as all four engines on a 747. So that engine is smaller than a 747 engine, but produces almost 10 times the thrust. Extremely high power-to-weight ratio.

所以当你们设计这些时，从猛禽 1 开始，看到它的效率，看到可以改进的地方，再到猛禽 2。用同样的技术，你们能把它扩展到什么程度？

So when you're designing these, you get to Raptor 1, see its efficiency, see where you can improve, get to Raptor 2. How far can you scale this up with the same sort of technology?

我们正在挑战物理极限。要制造一枚完全可重复使用的轨道火箭，还没有人成功过，包括我们。但星舰是第一个真正实现完全快速重复使用的设计。以前甚至没有这样的设计，更不用说造出硬件了。我们生活在一个重力相当高的星球上。如果重力再高 10%或 20%，我们就永远被困在地球上了。我们无法使用常规火箭，只能用核弹之类的东西把自己炸飞。但如果地球重力再低一点，哪怕低 10%或 20%，进入轨道就会很容易。这就像游戏设置了最高难度，但并非不可能。其他人并非忽视了可重复使用的概念，他们只是认为太难了。我们在 SpaceX 为此努力了很久。我是首席工程师，但我们有一个极其才华横溢的工程团队——有史以来最优秀的火箭工程团队。

We're pushing the limits of physics here. To make a fully reusable orbital rocket, which no one has succeeded in doing yet, including us. But Starship is the first design where full and rapid reusability is actually possible. There hasn't even been a design before where it was possible, certainly not one that got any hardware. We live on a planet where gravity is quite high. If gravity were even 10 or 20% higher, we'd be stuck on Earth forever. We couldn't use conventional rockets; we'd have to blow ourselves off with a nuclear bomb or something crazy. But if Earth's gravity were just a little lower, even 10 or 20% lower, getting to orbit would be easy. It's like this is set to maximum difficulty but not impossible. Others have not ignored the concept of reusability; they just concluded it was too difficult. We've been working on this for a long time at SpaceX. I'm the chief engineer, but we have an extremely talented engineering team—the best rocket engineering team ever assembled.

能与如此杰出的人共事是我的荣幸。可以说，我们尚未完全实现可重复使用，但我们终于有了一枚可以实现完全可重复使用的火箭。我认为我们明年就能实现。这意义重大。因为完全可重复使用能将进入太空的成本降低一百倍，甚至可能超过一百倍，也许能达到一千倍。你可以把它想象成任何一种交通工具。假设飞机不可重复使用，你飞到某地，然后把飞机扔掉。传统火箭就是这样运作的：就像你有一架飞机，但不在目的地降落，而是跳伞逃生，飞机坠毁。那样旅行会非常昂贵，而且你还得再找一架飞机回来。但这就是其他火箭的工作方式。SpaceX 的猎鹰火箭是唯一至少大部分可重复使用的。你见过猎鹰火箭着陆。我们已经完成了超过 500 次猎鹰 9 号火箭的着陆。今年，我们将用猎鹰 9 号和猎鹰重型火箭向轨道运送大约 2200 到 2500 吨的载荷，这还不包括星舰的贡献。

It's an honor to work with such incredible people. So it's fair to say that we have not yet succeeded in achieving full reusability, but we at last have a rocket where full reusability is possible. And I think we'll achieve it next year. That's a really big deal. The reason is that full reusability drops the cost of access to space by a hundred, maybe even more than a hundred. Could be like a thousand. You can think of it like any mode of transport. Imagine if aircraft were not reusable. You flew somewhere, you throw the plane away. Conventional rockets work like that: it would be like having an airplane, and instead of landing at your destination, you parachute out and the plane crashes. That would be a very expensive trip, and you'd need another plane to get back. But that's how other rockets work. The SpaceX Falcon rocket is the only one that is at least mostly reusable. You've seen the Falcon rocket land. We've now done over 500 landings of the Falcon 9 rocket. This year, we'll deliver probably somewhere between 2200 and 2500 tons to orbit with Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets, not counting anything from Starship.

这主要是星链吧？

And this is mostly Starlink.

是的，主要是星链，但我们也发射很多其他载荷。我们甚至用猎鹰 9 号发射星链的竞争对手。我们向他们收取同样的价格。相当公平。SpaceX 今年将把地球上大约 90%的质量送入轨道。

Yes, mostly Starlink, but we launch many others. We even launch our competitors to Starlink on Falcon 9. We charge them the same price. Pretty fair. SpaceX this year will deliver roughly 90% of all Earth mass to orbit.

哇。

Wow.

剩下的 10%中，大部分由中国完成。然后剩下的约 4%由世界其他地区完成，包括我们国内的竞争对手。

And of the remaining 10%, most of that is done by China. And then the remaining roughly 4% is everyone else in the world, including our domestic competitors.

太不可思议了，现在太空中有那么多东西漂浮在我们头顶。

It's incredible how many things are in space, floating above us now.

确实有很多东西。

There's a lot of things.

有没有一个饱和点，到时候所有这些卫星会带来问题？

Is there a saturation point where we'll have problems with all these satellites?

我认为只要卫星得到维护，就没问题。太空非常宽敞。你可以把太空想象成地球表面的同心壳层。它是一系列同心轨道。空间很大。想象一下地球上只有几千辆房车。它们相撞的概率有多大？不会很拥挤。而且你还可以去更高的地方，距离地球数百英里。

I think as long as the satellites are maintained, it'll be fine. Space is very roomy. You can think of space as concentric shells of the surface of the Earth. It's a series of concentric trails. There's a lot of room. Imagine if there were just a few thousand Airstreams on Earth. What are the odds they'd hit each other? They wouldn't be very crowded. And you go higher, hundreds of miles above Earth.

SpaceX 的目标是将火箭技术发展到能够将生命扩展到地球之外，在火星上建立一个自给自足的城市，并在月球上建立一个永久基地。那将非常酷。想象一下，如果我们在月球上有一个阿尔法基地，一个永久性的科学基地。

The goal of SpaceX is to get rocket technology to the point where we can extend life beyond Earth and establish a self-sustaining city on Mars, and a permanent base on the moon. That would be very cool. Imagine if we had a moon base alpha with a permanent science base on the moon.

那太棒了。或者至少是个旅游胜地。

That would be pretty dope. Or at least a tourist trap.

很多人会愿意去月球旅游。这是肯定的。我们也许可以用这个来为我们的太空计划买单。

A lot of people would be willing to go to the moon just for a tour. That's for sure. We could probably pay for our space program with that.

很可能。如果能安全地去月球，我想很多人会为此付费。

Probably. If you could go to the moon safely, I think a lot of people would pay for that.

哦，100%。第一年之后，如果没有人死亡。

Oh, 100%. After the first year, after nobody died.

没错。你会回来吗？

Exactly. Are you going to come back?

是的。

Yeah.

就像那艘潜艇，在它内爆并导致所有人遇难之前，他们有过多次成功发射。那是一个非常糟糕的设计。

Like that submarine, they had a bunch of successful launches before it imploded and killed everybody. That was a very bad design.

糟糕的设计。工程师们说它无法承受那些深度的压力。那家公司有很多举报人。他们用碳纤维制造，这毫无道理，因为你需要密度大才能下潜。直接用钢造就行了。如果用大型钢铸件，你会很安全。他们为什么用碳纤维？是因为便宜吗？

Terrible design. And the engineers said it would not withstand the pressure of those depths. There were a lot of whistleblowers in that company. They made it out of carbon fiber, which doesn't make any sense because you need to be dense to go down. Just make it out of steel. If you make it out of a big steel casting, you'll be safe. Why would they make it out of carbon fiber? Is it cheaper?

我想他们觉得碳纤维听起来很酷。

I think they think carbon fiber sounds cool.

听起来确实很酷，但由于密度很低，你实际上需要增加额外质量才能下潜。但如果你有一个巨大的空心滚珠轴承，就没问题。

It does sound cool, but because it's such low density, you actually have to add extra mass to go down. But if you just have a giant hollow ball bearing, you'll be fine.

说到碳纤维，你看到我那辆改装的 Tesla 了吗？很酷吧？你们有没有想过做类似的事情，比如像 AMG 那样搞一个 Tesla 的定制部门？

Speaking of carbon fiber, did you check out my unplugged Tesla out there? Pretty sick, right? Have you guys ever thought about doing something like that, like having an AMG division of Tesla where you do custom stuff?

我认为最好留给定制店去做。Tesla 的焦点是自动驾驶汽车，打造未来主义的自动驾驶汽车。我们希望未来看起来像未来。你看到我们设计的机器人巴士了吗？它看起来非常酷。它是装饰艺术风格，未来主义的装饰艺术。我们希望随着时间的推移改变美学。你不希望美学一成不变。你想让它进化。我有一个儿子叫 Saxon，他比我还自闭，但他有很棒的观察力，因为他用不同的视角看世界。他说：‘爸爸，为什么世界看起来像 2015 年？’我想，该死，世界确实看起来像 2015 年。美学自 2015 年以来就没有进化过。

I think it's best to leave that to the custom shops. Tesla's focus is autonomous cars, building kind of futuristic autonomous cars. We want the future to look like the future. Did you see our designs for the robotic bus? It looks pretty cool. It's very art deco, futuristic art deco. We want to change the aesthetic over time. You don't want the aesthetic to be constant. You want to evolve it. I have a son, Saxon, who is even more autistic than me, and he has these great observations because he views the world through a different lens. He said, 'Dad, why does the world look like it's 2015?' And I thought, damn, the world does look like it's 2015. The aesthetic has not evolved since 2015.

哦，原来是这样。

Oh, that's what it looks like.

是的。

Yeah.

那太酷了。哦，是啊。就像你希望看到它行驶在路上，你知道吗？是啊。你会觉得，‘好吧，这就是未来。’你知道，它看起来不像 2015 年。那部古老的科幻电影是什么？最早期的科幻电影之一。是《大都会》吗？是那个吗？是啊。是啊。它看起来就像属于《大都会》。是啊。未来主义装饰艺术风格。好吧。是啊。你专注于美学，这很酷。我的意思是，这基本上就是 Cybertruck 的全部意义，对吧？它本来不必长那样。

That's pretty cool. Oh, yeah. That's like you'd want to see that going down the road, you know? Yeah. You'd be like, 'Okay, this is we're in the future.' You know, it doesn't look like 2015. What is that ancient science fiction movie? Like one of the first science fiction movies ever. Is it Metropolis? Is that what it is? Yeah. Yeah. That looks like it belongs in Metropolis. Yeah. It's a futuristic art deco. All right. Yeah. Well, that's cool that you're concentrating on the aesthetic. I mean, that's kind of the whole deal with Cybertruck, right? Like, it didn't have to look like that.

不，我只是想要一些看起来非常不同的东西。

No, I just wanted to have something that looked really different.

人们给它上保险是不是很麻烦，因为它全是实心钢？

Is it a pain in the ass for people to get it insured because it's all solid steel?

我希望不会太贵。特斯拉确实提供保险，所以人们总可以在特斯拉投保。

I hope it's not too much. Tesla does offer insurance, so people can always get it insured at Tesla.

嗯，但 Cybertruck 确实是形式服从功能，因为你用穿甲箭演示过，如果你朝普通卡车射那支箭，你会发现箭在墙上。至少，它会嵌进一个座位里。

Well, but the form does follow function in the case of the Cybertruck because as you demonstrated with your armor-piercing arrow, if you shot that arrow at a regular truck, you would have found your arrow in the wall. At the very least, it would have buried into one of the seats.

没错。你肯定能获得足够的弓速，合适的箭会穿过普通卡车的两扇门，然后落在墙上。如果两扇门之间没有遮挡，它很可能直接穿过去。箭在 Cybertruck 上碎裂了，因为它是超硬不锈钢。我觉得有一辆能防亚音速子弹的卡车会很酷。尤其是在这个时代，如果世界末日来了，你会想要一辆防弹卡车。因为它由超硬不锈钢制成，你不能冲压面板。你不能把它放进冲压机，因为会损坏机器。所以它必须是平面的，因为太难弯曲了。这就是为什么它这么方正，因为它是防弹钢。

Exactly. You could definitely get enough bow velocity and the right arrow would go through both doors of a regular truck and land on the wall. If there was a clear shot between both doors, it probably would have passed right through. The arrow shattered on the Cybertruck because it's ultra-hard stainless steel. I thought it'd be cool to have a truck that is bulletproof to subsonic projectiles. Especially in this day and age, if the apocalypse happens, you're going to want to have a bulletproof truck. Because it's made of ultra-hard stainless, you can't stamp the panels. You can't put it in a stamping press because it breaks the press. So it has to be planar because it's so difficult to bend it. That's why it's so boxy, because it's bulletproof steel.

所以它是方方正正的，而不是流线型。

So it is boxy as opposed to curved.

是的。要制造弯曲形状，你用软钢，放进冲压机，它就能压成你想要的任何形状。但 Cybertruck 用的是超硬不锈钢，所以不能冲压，因为会损坏机器。连弯曲它都很难。我们必须过度弯曲，这样它回弹时才能处于正确位置。我认为这是一种独特的美学。卡车酷在哪里？卡车应该阳刚、硬汉，而防弹是最硬汉的。

Yeah. To make curved shapes, you take mild steel, put it in a stamping press, and it smooshes it into whatever shape you want. But the Cybertruck is made of ultra-hard stainless, so you can't stamp it because it would break the press. Even bending it is hard. We have to way overbend it so that when it springs back, it's in the right position. I think it's a unique aesthetic. What's cool about a truck? Trucks should be manly, macho, and bulletproof is maximum macho.

你现在是坚持那个形状了吗？你能做些什么来改变它吗？就像你更新了 Model 3 和 Model Y。

Are you married to that shape now? Can you do anything to change it? Like you updated the Model 3 and Model Y.

是的，Model 3 和 Model Y 已经更新了。例如，在新款 3 和 Y 中，后座有一个屏幕供孩子们观看。在新款 Y 中，有数百项改进。我们不断改进汽车。即使是 Cybertruck，我们也在不断改进。但我想做一些看起来独特的东西，Cybertruck 看起来独特，功能也独特。有三件事：让它防弹，让它比保时捷 911 更快，而且我们确实跑完了四分之一英里。Cybertruck 在拖着一辆保时捷 911 的情况下，跑完四分之一英里比保时捷 911 本身还快。它的牵引力超过 F350 柴油车。

Yes, the Model 3 and Model Y are updated. There's a screen in the back for the kids to watch, for example, in the new 3 and Y. In the new Y, there are hundreds of improvements. We keep improving the car. Even the Cybertruck, we keep improving it. But I wanted to do something that looked unique, and the Cybertruck looks unique and has unique functionality. There were three things: make it bulletproof, make it faster than a Porsche 911, and we actually cleared the quarter mile. The Cybertruck can clear a quarter mile while towing a Porsche 911 faster than a Porsche 911. It can out-tow an F350 diesel.

真的吗？牵引限制是多少？

Really? What are the tow limitations?

我的意思是，我们可以用它拖一架 747。Cybertruck 是疯狂的外星技术。不可能这么大还这么快。就像一头跑得像猎豹一样快的大象。

I mean, we could tow a 747 with it. The Cybertruck is insanely alien technology. It shouldn't be possible to be that big and that fast. It's like an elephant that runs like a cheetah.

是啊，因为它 0 到 60 英里加速不到 3 秒，对吧？而且它很大。它有多重？大概 7000 磅。

Yeah, because it's 0 to 60 in less than 3 seconds, right? And it's enormous. What does it weigh? Like 7,000 lbs.

是的，有不同的配置，但差不多。它是个猛兽。它有四轮转向，所以后轮也能转向。转弯半径非常小。

Yeah, there are different configurations, but it's about that. It's a beast. It has four-wheel steering, so the rear wheels steer too. It has a very tight turning radius.

是啊，我们开了一辆去星舰基地时就注意到了。转弯半径非常小。太酷了。

Yeah, we noticed that when we drove one to Starbase. Very tight turning radius. Pretty sick.

是的。

Yeah.

你还在做 Roadster 吗？

Are you still doing the Roadster?

是的。最终，我们接近展示原型了，我认为这将是……我能保证的一件事是，这次产品演示将令人难忘。令人难忘。

Yes. Eventually, we're getting close to demonstrating the prototype, and I think this will be... one thing I can guarantee is that this product demo will be unforgettable. Unforgettable.

怎么说？无论好坏，都会令人难忘。你能多说点吗？你什么意思？

How so? Whether it's good or bad, it will be unforgettable. Can you say more? What do you mean?

嗯，我的朋友彼得·蒂尔曾反思说，未来本应有飞行汽车，但我们没有飞行汽车。

Well, my friend Peter Thiel once reflected that the future was supposed to have flying cars, but we don't have flying cars.

所以你将能够飞行？我的意思是，我认为如果彼得想要一辆飞行汽车，我们应该能买到一辆。

So you're going to be able to fly? I mean, I think if Peter wants a flying car, we should be able to buy one.

嗯，我们得在演示中看看。

Well, we have to see in the demo.

那么当你做这个的时候，你会有一个可伸缩的机翼吗？比如，这背后的想法是什么？别耍滑头。说吧。

So when you do this, are you going to have a retractable wing? Like, what is the idea behind this? Don't be sly. Come on.

我不能在发布之前就发布。

I can't do the unveil before the unveil.

那私下告诉我。

Tell me off air then.

我认为它有可能成为有史以来最令人难忘的产品发布。有可能。

I think it has a shot at being the most memorable product unveil ever. It has a shot.

你计划什么时候做这个？目标是什么？

And when do you plan on doing this? What's the goal?

希望在今年年底之前。

Hopefully before the end of the year.

真的吗？今年年底之前？这……我是说我们还有几个月。

Really? Before the end of this year? This is... I mean we're in a couple months.

希望几个月后吧。我们得确保它管用。这车里有疯狂的技术，跟之前宣布的完全不同。

Hopefully in a couple months. We need to make sure it works. This is some crazy technology we got in this car. Crazy technology. So different from what was previously announced.

是的。所以你还没发布是因为一直在改进它？

Yes. And is that why you haven't released it yet? Because you keep working on it?

它有疯狂的技术。它还算车吗？我不确定。它看起来像车，但比所有詹姆斯·邦德的车加起来还疯狂。

It has crazy technology. Is it even a car? I'm not sure. It looks like a car, but it's crazier than anything James Bond. If you took all the James Bond cars and combined them, it's crazier than that.

太令人兴奋了。我不知道该怎么想。

Very exciting. I don't know what to think of that.

我不知道。

I don't know.

我掌握的信息有限。杰米那边很怀疑，你看他。兴奋，我感兴趣。

It's a limited amount of information I'm drawing from here. Jamie's very suspicious over there. Look at him. Excited. I'm interested.

它还是会一样的。

It's still going to be the same.

如果你愿意在发布前提前一点来，我可以百分之百展示给你看。好，走吧。

Well, if you want to come a little before the unveil, I can show it to you 100%. Yeah, let's go.

你同时参与这么多不同的事情，真是疯狂。我们之前聊过你的时间管理，但我真的不理解。我不明白你怎么能同时关注所有这些不同的事情：星链、SpaceX、特斯拉、无聊公司、X。你整天发推文或者说发帖。

It's kind of crazy all the different things you're involved in simultaneously. We talked about this before, your time management, but I really don't understand it. I don't understand how you can be paying attention to all these different things simultaneously: Starlink, SpaceX, Tesla, Boring Company, X. You tweet or post rather all day long.

更像是，我可以跳进去两分钟，然后跳出来。

It's more like I can hop in for like two minutes and then hop out.

但我的意思是，你能做到这一点……

But I mean, just the fact that you could do...

就像上厕所之类的。

Bathroom break or whatever.

我做不到。我一跳进去就开始刷屏，四处看，转眼就浪费了一个小时。

I can't do that. If I hop in, I start scrolling and looking around. Next thing you know, I've lost an hour.

对我来说通常就几分钟。有时候半小时，但通常我进去几分钟就出来，在 X 上发点东西。我有时候觉得自己就像那个扔了手榴弹就离开房间的表情包。我在 X 上不止一次这样。

For me it's a couple minutes usually. Sometimes it's half an hour, but usually I'm in for a few minutes then out, posting something on X. I do sometimes feel like that meme of the guy who drops the grenade and leaves the room. That's been me more than once on X.

不过，知道你基本上颠覆了整个社交媒体指挥链，一定很有趣。社交媒体上发生着很明显的事情。政府渗透了它，他们在审查言论，直到你买下它，我们才真正知道程度有多深。我们之前只是猜测有些不对劲。

It's got to be fun, though, to know that you essentially disrupted the entire social media chain of command. There was a very clear thing going on with social media. The government had infiltrated it, they were censoring speech, and until you bought it, we really didn't know the extent of it. We kind of assumed something was going on.

我们不知道他们积极参与审查真实的新闻故事、真实的数据、真实的科学家、真实的教授被噤声、开除、赶出平台。就因为他们说了真话。

We had no idea that they were actively involved in censoring actual real news stories, real data, real scientists, real professors silenced, expelled, kicked off the platform. For telling the truth.

太疯狂了。就因为说了真话。我相信你也看到了那张图表，显示认同跨性别和非二元性别的青少年在你买下推特时戛然而止，当人们被允许进行理性讨论并真正谈论它时，开始断崖式下跌。

Wild. For telling the truth. And I'm sure you've also seen that chart that shows young kids, teenagers identifying as trans and non-binary literally stops dead when you bought Twitter and starts falling off a cliff when people are allowed to have rational discussions now and actually talk about it.

是的。我当时说过，收购推特的原因是它在文明层面造成了破坏。我当时在推特上发帖说，它是世界的‘巧言令色者’，就像《指环王》里的巧言令色者，对国王低语可怕的事情，让国王相信不真实的事情。不幸的是，推特真的被觉醒暴民控制了，他们在向世界推行一种虚无主义、反文明的思维病毒。你可以在旧金山的街头看到这种思维病毒的结果，市中心看起来像僵尸末日。这很糟糕。我们不希望整个世界都变成僵尸末日。他们在向世界推行这种非常消极、虚无主义、不真实的世界观，造成了很大的损害。

Yes. I said at the time that the reason for acquiring Twitter was because it was causing destruction at a civilizational level. I posted on Twitter at the time that it is Wormtongue for the world, like Wormtongue from Lord of the Rings who would whisper terrible things to the king so the king would believe things that weren't true. Unfortunately, Twitter really got controlled by the woke mob, and they were pushing a nihilistic anti-civilizational mind virus to the world. You can see the results of that mind virus on the streets of San Francisco, where downtown San Francisco looks like a zombie apocalypse. It's bad. We don't want the whole world to be a zombie apocalypse. They were pushing this very negative, nihilistic, untrue worldview on the world and it was causing a lot of damage.

令人震惊的是，很少有人纠正方向。一群人醒悟过来，意识到发生了什么。那些在 2015 或 2016 年可能都支持觉醒意识形态的人，最终当它影响到他们或他们在工作场所看到时，他们会说，‘哇，哇，哇，我们必须阻止这个。’很多人确实这样做了，但很多人从未纠正方向。

The stunning thing about it is how few people course corrected. A bunch of people woke up and realized what was going on. People that were all on board with woke ideology in maybe 2015 or 16 and then eventually it comes to affect them or they see it in their workplace and they're like, 'Whoa, whoa, whoa, we got to stop this.' A bunch of people did, but a lot of people never course corrected.

很多人没有纠正方向，但方向上是正确的。就像你提到的，认同跨性别的孩子数量激增，然后在收购推特后下降。我认为，仅仅允许真相被说出来，就是让阳光照进来。俗话说，阳光是最好的消毒剂，让阳光照进来就能杀死病毒。

A lot of people didn't course correct, but it's gone directionally correct. Like you mentioned, the massive spike in kids identifying as trans and then that spike dropping after the Twitter acquisition. I think that simply allowing the truth to be told was shedding sunlight. Sunlight is the best disinfectant, as they say, and just allowing sunlight kills the virus.

而且它也改变了所有其他平台的基准。你不能在其他平台上公开审查人们，因为 X 存在。所以 Facebook 宣布他们正在改变，YouTube 宣布他们正在改变政策，他们有点被迫这样做。然后 BlueSky 加倍坚持。

And it also changed the benchmark for all the other platforms. You can't just openly censor people on all the other platforms because X is available. So Facebook announced they were changing, YouTube announced they were changing their policies, and they're kind of forced to. And then BlueSky doubled down.

问题是，觉醒思维病毒撤退到了 BlueSky。但那只是一个自我强化的疯人院。

The problem is that the woke mind virus retreated to BlueSky. But it's just a self-reinforcing lunatic asylum.

他们都戴着三重面具。我在 BlueSky 上看到一段对话，有人说他们只是想对某事保持禅意，然后一个版主立即插话说，‘你为什么不说点禅意的话来停止对亚洲人的种族歧视？’他们指责那个人对亚洲人种族歧视。

They're all just triple masked. I was watching this exchange on BlueSky where someone said they're just trying to be zen about something, and then a moderator immediately chimed in, 'Why don't you try to stop being racist against Asians by saying something zen?' They were accusing that person of being racist towards Asians.

那边每个人都是走廊监督员。最糟糕的走廊监督员。一个处男非自愿独身者。

It's just everyone's a hall monitor over there. The worst hall monitor. A virgin incel.

他们都是走廊监督员，互相告密。真有趣。然后人们说，‘我要像斯蒂芬·金一样离开去 BlueSky。’几周后，他又回到 X 了。就像，‘去他的。那边没人。全是一群疯子。你在疯人院只能待那么久。’他们都逃了。Threads 也差不多。

They're all hall monitors trying to rat on each other. It's fascinating. And then people say, 'I'm leaving for BlueSky like Stephen King.' And a couple weeks later, he's back on X. Just like, 'Fuck it. There's no one over there. It's all a bunch of crazy people. You can only stay in the asylum for so long.' They all bail. Threads is kind of like that, too.

Threads 这个平台……我上过 Threads。情况是，如果你刷 Instagram，时不时会看到 Threads 上冒出来特别蠢的东西，Instagram 会推给你。然后我点进去，到了 Threads，看到的帖子只有 25 个赞，名人也就 50 个。热度很低。但发帖的人发现，那些疯狂的观点几乎没人反驳，所以他们就在那里胡说八道，很少有人跳出来争论。

Threads is... I've been on Threads. What happens is if you go on Instagram, every now and then something really stupid will pop up on Threads, and it shows it to you on Instagram. Then I'll click on that and go to Threads, and you see posts with like 25 likes, famous people with like 50. It's down. But the people that post there find that there's very little pushback from insane ideology, so they go there and spit out nonsense, and very few people jump in to argue.

对，很奇怪，非常奇怪的地方。

Yeah, very weird, very weird place.

我是说，我大致能通过 X 上出现的内容感受到什么在流行，因为 X 仍然是公共广场。还有群聊里分享的链接。如果我在朋友群聊里，大家分享什么链接？我现在就只看群聊里出现的东西，这样能保持高效。所以只有当有人说‘老兄，什么鬼？’的时候，我才会说‘好吧，让我看看’。如果有足够疯狂的事情出现在群聊里，但总会有事情。这就是疯狂的地方。总有一些新法律通过，一些加州做的疯狂事。很大一部分都发生在加州。我收到的最荒谬的事情。

I mean, I can generally get the vibe of what's taking off by seeing what's showing up on X, because that's the public town square still. And also what links show up in group texts. If I'm in a group chat with friends, what links are showing up? That's what I try to do now. Only get stuff that shows up in my group text because that keeps me productive. So I only check if someone's like, 'Dude, what the fuck?' like, 'All right, let me check it out.' If there's something crazy enough that it ends up in the group chat, but there's always something. That's what's nuts. There's always some new law that's passed, some new insane thing that California is doing. A giant chunk of it is happening in California. The most preposterous things that I get.

对。

Yeah.

然后加文·纽森到处说我们都有‘加州妄想症’。他就是在剽窃‘特朗普妄想症’的说法，改成‘加州妄想症’。我说，‘不不不，有多少公司已经离开加州了？’

And then you got Gavin Newsom running around saying we all have California derangement syndrome. He's just ripping off Trump derangement and calling it California derangement. I was like, 'No, no, no. How many corporations have left California?'

疯了。

It's crazy.

几百家。

Hundreds.

几百家，对吧？

Hundreds, right?

几百家。这不好。

Hundreds. That's not good.

我是说，不是 Chick-fil-A。我是说，我想 In-N-Out 离开了。

I mean, not Chick-fil-A. I mean, I think In-N-Out left.

对，In-N-Out 搬到了田纳西。

Yeah. In-N-Out moved to Tennessee.

对。

Yeah.

他们就像，‘我们再也受不了了。’

They're like, 'We can't do this anymore.'

对。

Right.

而且它是加州的食品公司，是最好的汉堡店。

And it's the California company for food. It's like the greatest hamburger place ever.

太棒了。

It's awesome.

对。实际上，说到开源和公开看待事物，我喜欢走进 In-N-Out，看着他们做汉堡。

Yeah. Actually, speaking of open source and looking at things openly, I like going into In-N-Out and seeing them make the burger.

对，就在你面前。

Yeah. It's right there.

他们切洋葱，你看着所有东西在你面前做出来。

They chop the onions, and you see everything getting made in front of you.

对，很棒。

Yeah. It's great.

但是，你需要多少次警钟才能说加州需要改革？

But yeah, like, how many wake-up calls do you need to say that there needs to be reform in California?

嗯，纽森做的疯狂事是，每当有人提起加州的问题，他就开始列举所有积极面：最多的财富 500 强公司，最高的教育水平。但那些在你当州长之前就已经存在了。

Well, the crazy thing that Newsom does is whenever someone brings up the problems in California, he starts rattling off all the positives: the most Fortune 500 companies, highest education. But that was all already there before you were governor.

但是有多少财富 500 强公司离开了加州？

But how many Fortune 500 companies have left California?

然后你们花了 240 亿美元在无家可归者问题上，情况却变得更糟了。

And then you guys spent $24 billion on the homeless and it got way worse.

对，无家可归者人口翻了一番之类的。但人们不理解无家可归问题，因为它利用了人们的同情心。我认为我们应该有同情心，应该努力帮助别人。但无家可归者产业综合体真的很黑暗。那个 NGO 网络应该被称为‘药物僵尸养殖者’。因为无家可归者越多，当你遇到一个完全麻木、拖着腿在路上走、腿上还挂着针头的人时，‘无家可归’这个词用错了。‘无家可归’暗示某人房贷稍微逾期，如果得到一份工作就能重新站起来。但那些吸食芬太尼、在街上拉屎、身上有开放性疮口的人，不是一份工作就能解决的。这不是无家可归问题。‘无家可归’是一个宣传词汇。这些慈善机构根据无家可归者或药物僵尸的数量获得资金。所以他们的激励机制是最大化药物僵尸的数量，而不是最小化。这就是为什么他们不逮捕毒贩，因为如果逮捕毒贩，药物僵尸就会离开。他们知道毒贩是谁，故意不逮捕。否则药物僵尸会离开，他们就会停止从加州和所有慈善机构获得资金。

Yes. The homeless population doubled or something. But people don't understand the homeless thing because it preys on people's empathy. I think we should have empathy and try to help people. But the homeless industrial complex is really dark. That network of NGOs should be called 'drug zombie farmers.' Because the more homeless people, and when you meet someone who's totally dead inside, shuffling along the street with a needle dangling out of their leg, 'homeless' is the wrong word. 'Homeless' implies someone got a little behind on their mortgage and if they got a job offer, they'd be back on their feet. But someone who's on fentanyl, taking a dump in the middle of the street, with open sores, they're not one job offer away from getting back on their feet. This is not a homeless issue. 'Homeless' is a propaganda word. These charities get money proportionate to the number of homeless people or drug zombies. So their incentive structure is to maximize the number of drug zombies, not minimize it. That's why they don't arrest the drug dealers, because if they arrest the drug dealers, the drug zombies leave. They know who the drug dealers are and don't arrest them on purpose, because otherwise the drug zombies would leave and they would stop getting money from the state of California and from all the charities.

等等，所以他们和执法部门协调？

Wait a minute. So they're in coordination with law enforcement on this?

对。

Yeah.

那他们怎么开会？

So how do they have those meetings?

他们都是一伙的。这是一个恶魔般的骗局。而且旧金山有这个总收入税，不是对收入征税，而是对交易征税。这就是为什么 Stripe、Square 和一大堆金融公司不得不搬离旧金山，因为不是对收入征税，而是对交易征税。如果你做了数万亿美元的交易，那不是收入。在旧金山，任何经过系统的钱都要被征税。杰克·多西指出了这一点，他说 Square 不得不从旧金山搬到奥克兰，Stripe 不得不从旧金山搬到南旧金山，不同的城市。那笔钱流向了无家可归者产业综合体，就是通过那个税。每年有数十亿美元流向这些由国家资助的非政府组织。不清楚如何关闭它。这是一个自我循环的冰淇淋蛋筒情况。他们得到的钱与无家可归者或药物僵尸的数量成正比。所以他们试图增加这个数量。在某些情况下，有人分析过，把所有流出的钱加起来，每个无家可归者或药物僵尸接近一百万美元。

They're all in cahoots. It's a diabolical scam. And San Francisco has this gross receipts tax, which is not on revenue, it's on transactions. That's why Stripe, Square, and a whole bunch of financial companies had to move out of San Francisco, because it wasn't a tax on revenue, it's taxed on transactions. If you did trillions of dollars in transactions, that's not revenue. You're taxed on any money going through the system in San Francisco. Jack Dorsey pointed this out, and they said Square had to move from San Francisco to Oakland, Stripe had to move from San Francisco to South San Francisco, a different city. That money goes to the homeless industrial complex through that tax. So there are billions of dollars every year that go to these non-governmental organizations funded by the state. It's not clear how to turn this off. It's a self-licking ice cream cone situation. They get this money proportionate to the number of homeless people or drug zombies. So they try to increase that number. In some cases, somebody did an analysis: when you add up all the money flowing, they're getting close to a million dollars per homeless person or drug zombie.

这就像 90 万美元之类的，一大笔钱流向了这些组织。所以他们想让人们勉强活着。他们需要把他们留在那个区域，这样他们才能获得收入。这就是为什么他们不逮捕毒贩，否则那些吸毒成瘾的僵尸就会离开。但他们也不想让他们有太多毒品，否则他们会死。所以他们被维持在这种成瘾但勉强活着的永久状态。

It's like $900,000 or something, some crazy amount of money is going to these organizations. So they want to keep people just barely alive. They need to keep them in the area so they get the revenue. That's why they don't arrest the drug dealers, because otherwise the drug zombies would leave. But they don't want them to have too much drugs, or they die. So they're kept in this perpetual zone of being addicted but just barely alive.

那么这与那些不起诉人的地方检察官是如何协调的呢？当他们雇佣或推动时，他们资助最进步、最极端的左翼地方检察官的竞选活动，让他们上台。

So how is this coordinated with DAs that don't prosecute people? When they hire or push, they fund the campaigns of the most progressive, most out there leftwing DAs, they get them into office.

顺便说一句，我们在奥斯汀也有这个问题。

We've got that issue in Austin, too, by the way.

你看到那个在图书馆被枪杀的家伙了吗？

You see that guy that got shot in the library?

没有。

No.

是的，我听说有个家伙在图书馆被枪杀了。我想那大概是上周的事，对吧？

Yeah, I heard a guy got shot and killed in the library. I think that was just like last week or something, right?

所以我的一些朋友告诉我图书馆不安全。他们带孩子去图书馆，奥斯汀的图书馆里有危险人物。我说，图书馆里有危险人物？真奇怪。基本上图书馆里都是吸毒成瘾的僵尸。

So some friends of mine were telling me that the library is unsafe. They took their kids to the library and there were dangerous people in the library in Austin. I was like, dangerous people in the library? That's strange. It basically got like drug zombies in the library.

哦，天哪。

Oh Jesus.

然后有人就被枪杀了。

And that's when someone got shot.

是的，我相信这应该上新闻了。你可能能查到。但我认为就在上周左右，奥斯汀的图书馆发生了一起枪击案。因为奥斯汀，你知道，是我们现在所在的德克萨斯州最自由的部分。

Yeah, I believe this should be on the news. You might be able to pull it up. But I think it was just in the last week or so that there was a shooting in the library in Austin. Because Austin's got, you know, it's the most liberal part of Texas that we're in right here.

所以周六奥斯汀公园图书馆枪击案的嫌疑人还被指控当天早些时候在 Cap Metro 公交车上犯下另一起枪击案。根据逮捕令宣誓书，奥斯汀警方在中午左右发生的图书馆枪击案后不久逮捕了 55 岁的 Harold Newton Keen。一人受轻伤，无生命危险。在那次枪击之前，Keen 被指控在公交事件中枪击另一人，随后据报道还用枪指着一名儿童。所以，这就是那个家伙。

So suspect involved in the shooting at Austin Park Library Saturday is accused of another shooting at the Cap Metro bus earlier that day. According to an arrest warrant affidavit, Austin police arrested Harold Newton Keen, 55, shortly after the shooting at the library, which occurred around noon. One person sustained non-life-threatening injuries. Before that shooting, Keen was accused of shooting another person in a bus incident and after reportedly pointing his gun at a child. So, this is the fella down here.

所以，我们这里确实有个严重的问题。

So, we just have a serious problem here.

是的。

Yeah.

你知道，所以我认为他枪击的人中可能有一个也死了。我想有一个人确实流血过多死了。

You know, so I think one of the people might have died too that he shot. I think one of them did bleed out.

但不管怎样，被枪击还是很糟糕。报道说受害者告诉警察，他质问嫌疑人，嫌疑人开始吃看起来像冰毒的东西。根据宣誓书，受害者说嫌疑人开始出现幻觉，于是受害者下了公交车。受害者告诉公交车司机按下紧急按钮，然后下了车。当他转身时，看到一个黑人男子站在公交车前部，用枪指着他。受害者说那个黑人男子开了一枪，擦伤了他的左臀部。所以他朝那个家伙开了枪，然后另一个家伙在图书馆被枪杀了。真有意思。

But either way, getting shot is still bad. It says the victim told police he confronted the suspect who started to eat what appeared to be crystal methamphetamine. According to the affidavit, the victim advised the suspect began to trip out, at which time the victim exited the bus. The victim told the bus driver to hit the panic button and then exited the bus. When he turned around, he observed a black male now standing at the front of the bus with the gun pointed at him. The victim advised the black male fired a single round which grazed his left hip. So he shot at that dude and then another dude got shot in the library. Fun.

是啊，在图书馆里。

Yeah. I mean in the library.

是啊。

Yeah.

你知道，那是个本该读书的地方。图书馆里还有儿童区，他却用枪指着孩子。我的意思是，美国确实有个严重问题，那就是重复暴力犯罪者需要被监禁，对吧？

You know, where you're supposed to be reading books. And there's a children's section in the library and he pointed his gun at a kid. I mean, we do have a serious issue in America where repeat violent offenders need to be incarcerated, right?

而且有些案子，有人被捕了 47 次，对吧？就是字面意义上的。那只是他们被捕的次数，不是他们做坏事的次数。大多数时候他们做了坏事，根本没被捕。

And you got cases where somebody's been arrested like 47 times, right? Like literally. That's just the number of times they were arrested, not the number of times they did things. Most of the times they do things, they're not arrested.

所以给人们解释一下，让他们明白这是怎么发生的。

So lay this out for people so they understand how this happens.

是的。关键是这样的：它利用了人们的同情心。如果你是个好人，你希望世界上发生好事。你会说，我们应该照顾那些运气不好或生活艰难的人。我同意。但我们不应该做的是把暴力吸毒成瘾的僵尸放在公共场所，让他们伤害其他人。而我们现在就在这么做。我们刚刚看到一个家伙在图书馆被枪杀，但在此之前他还枪击了另一个人，并用枪指着孩子。那个家伙可能有很多前科。

Yeah. And the key is this: it preys on people's empathy. If you're a good person, you want good things to happen in the world. You're like, well, we should take care of people who are down on their luck or having a hard time in life. And I agree. But what we shouldn't do is put people who are violent drug zombies in public places where they can hurt other people. And that's what we're doing. We just saw a guy got shot in the library, but even before that he shot another guy and pointed his gun at a kid. That guy probably has many prior arrests.

还有那个捅了乌克兰女人 Arena 的家伙。

There was that guy that knifed the Ukrainian woman, Arena.

是的。

Yes.

她只是安静地看手机，他就走过来，基本上把她开膛了。

And she was just quietly on her phone and he just came up and gutted her basically.

是不是有个疯狂的故事，关于那个涉案的法官，他之前处理过这个人，还投资了一家康复中心，并把这些人送去……利益冲突。

Wasn't there a crazy story about the judge who was involved, who had previously dealt with this person, was also invested in a rehabilitation center and was sending these... conflict of interest.

是的。所以把他们起诉的人送到康复中心而不是监狱，从康复中心获利，然后让他们回到街上。是的。暴力、疯狂的人。

Yes. So sending people that they were charging to a rehabilitation center instead of putting them in jail, profiting from this rehabilitation center, letting them back out on the street. Yes. Violent, insane people.

在那个案子里，我相信那个法官没有法律学位或足够的法律经验来担任法官。他们只是被任命为法官。

And in that case, I believe that judge has no law degree or significant legal experience that would allow them to be a judge. They were just made a judge.

没有法律学位也能当法官。

You could be a judge without a law degree.

是的。

Yeah.

哇。

Wow.

是的。

Yeah.

你可以只是……所以我也可以当法官。

You could just be... So I could be a judge.

是的。哦，真令人兴奋。

Yeah. Oh, exciting.

任何人都行？

Anyone?

这太疯狂了。我以为你必须……就像如果你想当医生，你必须上医学院。我以为如果你想当法官，你必须证明你对法律有出色的了解，并且你会依法做出裁决。这是我们假设应该有的。

That's crazy. I thought you'd have to... It's like if you want to be a doctor, you have to go to medical school. I thought if you're going to be a judge, you have to have proven that you have an excellent knowledge of the law and that you will make your decisions according to the law. That's what we assume should be.

那是你获得法袍的方式，对吧？

That's how you get the robe, right?

除非你……你知道，必须上学才能得到法袍。

You don't get the robe unless you do, you know, got to go to school to get the robe.

你必须知道法律是什么，对吧？然后你需要根据你已经知道的东西依法做出决定，因为你读过，因为你上过学。是的。而不是仅仅被任命。

You got to know what the law is, right? And then you need to make decisions in accordance with the law based on stuff that you already know because you read it, because you went to school for it. Yes. Not just got appointed.

凭感觉。你不能只是凭感觉当法官。

Got vibes. You can't be just vibing as a judge.

凭感觉当左翼苦力。所以你有疯狂的左翼地方检察官。

Vibing as a leftwing drudge. So you got crazy leftwing DAs.

是的。

Yes.

我应该说左翼，因为左翼曾经是正常的。

Like I should say leftwing because leftwing used to be normal.

是的。左翼曾经意味着……是的。左派曾经支持言论自由。是的。现在他们反对了。

Yeah. Left wing just meant like... Yeah. You're like the left used to be pro free speech. Yeah. And now they're against it.

以前左派支持同性恋权利、女性选择权、少数群体。20 年前，左派是共情、关怀和友善的政党。不是压制异议和言论自由、疯狂监管、超级挑剔、把所有人都叫纳粹的政党。我觉得他们把你我都叫纳粹了。

It used to be like pro-gay rights, pro-women's right to choose, pro-minorities. Like 20 years ago, the left would be the party of empathy, caring, and being nice. Not the party of crushing dissent and free speech, crazy regulation, being super judgy, and calling everyone a Nazi. I think they called you and me Nazis.

哦对，我是纳粹。

Oh yeah, I'm a Nazi.

我有喜剧演员朋友叫你纳粹，我气坏了。

I have friends that are comedians that called you a Nazi and I got pissed off.

对，绝对是纳粹。因为你做了那个动作……我的心与你同在。所有人，每一个。蒂姆·沃尔兹、卡玛拉·哈里斯，每个人都做了。他们都做了。你怎么指人群？你怎么向人群挥手？

Yeah, definitely a Nazi. Because you did that thing at the... My heart goes out to you. Everyone, all of them. Literally, Tim Walz, Kamala Harris, every one of them did it. They all did it. How do you point at the crowd? How do you wave at the crowd?

你知道 CNN 用了一张我在 UFC 称重时的照片吗？我说‘嘿各位，欢迎来到称重现场。’他们从侧面拍我。那就是他们用的照片。‘阴谋论播客主播乔·罗根。’他们就这么用。

Do you know CNN was using a photo of me from the UFC weigh-ins? I go, 'Hey everybody, welcome to the weigh-ins.' They got me from the side. That was the photo they used. 'Conspiracy theorist podcaster Joe Rogan.' That's what they used.

对。但这就是今天的左派。超级挑剔，把所有人都叫纳粹，试图压制言论自由。

Yeah. But that's what the left is today. Super judgy, calling everyone a Nazi, trying to suppress freedom of speech.

对。最终你会没人可指责，因为人们会生气然后离开。

Yeah. Eventually you run out of people to accuse because people get pissed off and they leave.

对。被叫种族主义者或纳粹什么的已经无所谓了。

Yeah. It no longer matters to be called racist or Nazi or whatever.

你给人发短信时，会不会强烈意识到很可能有人在读你的短信？

When you text people, are you keenly aware that there's a high likelihood someone's reading your texts?

我假设。如果情报机构不试图读我的手机，他们可能该被炒了。至少他们能看点好玩的梗图。我偶尔逗他们笑。

I assume. If intelligence agencies aren't trying to read my phone, they should probably be fired. At least they get some fun memes. I crack them up once in a while.

所以我想聊聊加密应用是否真的安全。

So, I wanted to talk about whether encrypted apps are really secure.

不安全。

No.

对。一个以前为政府工作的朋友跟我解释过。他们能看到你的 Signal，但必须解密，成本很高。塔克·卡尔森那件事，当他们发现他要采访普京时，解密他的消息花了大约 75 万美元。所以是可能的，只是不容易。

Right. A friend who used to work for the government explained it to me. They can look at your Signal, but they have to decrypt it, which is very expensive. For the Tucker Carlson thing, when they found out he was going to interview Putin, it cost about $750,000 just to decrypt his messages. So it is possible, just not easy.

我认为你应该把任何消息系统看作有不同程度的不安全性。有些东西只是不那么不安全。在 X 上，我们把整个消息栈重建成了 XChat。

I think you should view any messaging system as having degrees of insecurity. Some things are less insecure than others. On X, we rebuilt the entire messaging stack into XChat.

对，这正是我想问你的。

Yeah, that's what I wanted to ask you about.

它很酷。它使用一种点对点加密系统，类似比特币。我认为加密非常好。我们正在彻底测试。X 系统中没有用于广告的钩子。如果你看 WhatsApp 或其他任何应用，它们都有广告钩子。

It's cool. It uses a sort of peer-to-peer based encryption system, similar to Bitcoin. I think it's very good encryption. We're testing it thoroughly. There are no hooks in the X systems for advertising. If you look at WhatsApp or any others, they have hooks for advertising.

你说钩子，是什么意思？

When you say hooks, what do you mean?

WhatsApp 对你发短信的内容了解得足够多，可以给你展示广告。这是一个巨大的安全漏洞。如果它有足够的信息给你展示广告，那它就有很多信息。他们称之为广告钩子。但有人可以用同一个钩子进去看你的消息。XChat 没有广告钩子。我不是说它完美。我们的目标是用一个完全加密的系统取代 Twitter DM 栈，你可以发短信、传文件、做音视频通话。我认为它会是安全性最低的消息系统。

WhatsApp knows enough about what you're texting to show you ads. That's a massive security vulnerability. If it has enough information to show you ads, it has a lot of information. They call it just a hook for advertising. But somebody can use that same hook to get in and look at your messages. XChat has no hooks for advertising. I'm not saying it's perfect. Our goal is to replace the Twitter DM stack with a fully encrypted system where you can text, send files, do audio/video calls. I think it'll be the least insecure messaging system.

你会把它作为独立应用发布，还是永远集成在 X 里？

Are you going to launch it as a standalone app or will it always be incorporated into X?

两种都有。你可以单独下载 XChat 应用。你可以发短信、音视频通话、传文件。几个月内会有一个专用应用，同时也集成在 X 系统中。

We'll have both. You'll be able to get the XChat app by itself. You can do texts, audio/video calls, send files. There'll be a dedicated app hopefully in a few months, and also integrated into the X system.

人们一直在说的 X 手机……那是……？我知道我问过你几次。所以你没在做手机？

The X phone people keep talking about... Is that...? I know I've asked you a couple times. So you're not working on a phone?

我没在做手机。

I'm not working on a phone.

你考虑过吗？你可能是唯一能让人们脱离苹果平台的人。

Have you ever considered it? You might be the only person that could get people off the Apple platform.

我可以告诉你我认为事情会如何发展。我们不会有传统意义上的手机。我们所谓的手机实际上会成为 AI 推理的边缘节点，用于 AI 视频推理，带一些无线电连接。本质上，服务器端的 AI 会与你设备（以前叫手机）上的 AI 通信，生成你想要的任何实时视频。我认为未来不会有操作系统或应用。它只是一个用于屏幕和音频的设备，设备上尽可能多地放 AI，以最小化边缘节点和服务器之间的带宽。

I can tell you where I think things are going. We're not going to have a phone in the traditional sense. What we call a phone will really be an edge node for AI inference, for AI video inference, with some radios to connect. Essentially, you'll have AI on the server side communicating to an AI on your device, formerly known as a phone, generating real-time video of anything you want. I think there won't be operating systems or apps in the future. It'll just be a device for screen and audio, with as much AI on the device as possible to minimize bandwidth between your edge node and the servers.

那么如果没有应用，人们会用什么？比如 X 还会存在吗？会有电子邮件平台吗，还是你通过 AI 获得一切？

So if there's no apps, what will people use? Like will X still exist? Will there be email platforms or will you get everything through AI?

你会通过 AI 获得一切。

You'll get everything through AI.

一切通过 AI。与拥有独立应用相比，这有什么好处？

Everything through AI. What will be the benefit of that as opposed to having individual apps?

无论你能想到什么，或者 AI 能预测你可能想要什么，它都会显示给你。这就是我对最终结果的预测。

Whatever you can think of, or really whatever the AI can anticipate you might want, it'll show you. That's my prediction for where things end up.

我们说的是什么样的时间范围？

What kind of a time frame are we talking about here?

我不知道。大概五六年左右吧。

I don't know. It's probably five or six years or something like that.

所以五六年内应用就像百视达视频一样？

So five or six years apps are like Blockbuster video?

差不多。

Pretty much.

一切都通过 AI 运行。是的。而且五六年内，也许更早，人们消费的大部分内容都将是 AI 生成的。所以，你知道，音乐视频看起来……已经有人用 Grok 和 Imagine 以及其他应用制作了长达几分钟甚至 10 到 15 分钟的 AI 视频，而且相当连贯。

And everything's run through AI. Yeah. And there'll be like most of what people consume in five or six years, maybe sooner than that, will be just AI generated content. So, you know, music videos look well... there's already people have made AI videos using Grok and imagine and using other apps as well that are several minutes long or like 10, 15 minutes and it's pretty coherent.

是的，看起来不错。

Yeah, it looks good.

不，它看起来棒极了。是的，音乐很震撼，因为它现在是我最喜欢的音乐。

No, it looks amazing. Yeah, the music is disturbing because it's my favorite music now.

音乐是你最喜欢的。

Like music is your favorite.

哦，有 AI 翻唱。你听过 50 Cent 歌曲的灵魂乐 AI 翻唱吗？

Oh, there's AI covers. Have you ever heard any of the AI covers of 50 Cent songs in soul?

没有。

No.

我要让你大吃一惊。这是我最喜欢对别人做的事。播放《What Up Gangsta》。

I'm going to blow your mind. This is my favorite thing to do to people. Play 'What Up Gangsta'.

这个家伙，如果他是真人，会是世界第一的音乐艺术家。每个人都会说，‘天哪，你听说过这家伙吗？他太不可思议了。’就像他们把所有艺术家产生的声音都拿来，创造了最有灵魂、最有力的声音，而且唱的方式我甚至不知道你能不能做到，因为你得在这里呼吸和重复。戴上耳机。快点戴上耳机。你得听听这个。它会让你震撼。对于听众，我们得把它剪掉。

Now, this guy, if this was a real person, would be the number one music artist in the world. Everybody would be like, 'Holy, have you heard of this guy? He's incredible.' It's like they took all of the sounds that all the artists have generated and created the most soulful potent voice and it's sung in a way that I don't even know if you could do because you would have to breathe in and out of reps here. Put the headphones on. Put the headphones on real quick. You got to listen to this. It's going to blow you away. For listeners, we got to cut it out.

是的，我们会为听众剪掉。但很棒，对吧？太棒了。他们用这个 AI 生成的灵魂艺术家演绎了他的每一首热门歌曲。太不可思议了。我在休息室播放过。所以那些说‘我不想听 AI 音乐’的人，我就说‘听听这个’。然后他们就说‘该死’。

Yeah, we'll cut it out for the listeners. But amazing, right? Amazing. And they do like every one of his hits all through this AI generated soulful artist. It's incredible. I played in the green room. So people that are like, 'I don't want to hear AI music.' I'm like, 'Just listen to this.' And they're like, 'God damn it.'

不可思议。我是说，它只会越来越好。

Incredible. I mean, it's going to get only better from here.

是的。只会越来越好。Ron White 告诉我他正在创作一个笑话，但一直没成功。他说，‘我有一个一直在琢磨的笑话。’他说，‘我把它扔进 ChatGPT。我说，告诉我这个有什么好笑的。’然后它列出了五种不同的方向。他说，‘等等。收紧一点。让它更有趣。更像这样。更像那样。’然后它瞬间就做到了。

Yeah. Only going to get better. And Ron White was telling me about this joke that he was working on that he couldn't get to work. He's like, 'I got this joke I've been working on.' He goes, 'I just threw it in a ChatGPT. I said, 'Tell me what would be funny about this.' And he goes, 'It listed like five different examples of different ways he can go.' He's like, 'Hold on a second. Tighten it up. Make it funnier. Make it more like this. Make it more like that.' And it did that instantaneously.

然后他在休息室说，‘天哪，我们完蛋了。’

And then he was in the green room. He was like, 'Holy, we're fucked.'

他说，‘它 20 分钟就比我一个月想出的笑话更好。’

He's like, 'It's a better joke than me in 20 minutes. I've been working on that joke for a month.'

是的。我是说，如果你想在派对上玩得开心或让人大笑，你可以用 Grok 说‘对某人进行粗俗的吐槽’。Grok 会给出史诗级的粗俗吐槽。你甚至可以说，拍张照片，根据这个人在派对上的外表进行粗俗吐槽。

Yeah. I mean, if you want to have a good time or make people really laugh at a party, you can use Grok and you can say 'do a vulgar roast of someone.' And Grok is going to be an epic vulgar roast. You can even say, take a picture of someone and make a vulgar roast of this person based on their appearance at the party.

所以拍张他们的照片。

So take a photo of them.

是的。直接对着他们拍照，然后对这个人大肆吐槽。然后不停地说‘不，不，让它更粗俗，多用禁忌词’，一直重复‘更粗俗’。最终它会像‘天哪’，你知道，它试图把火箭塞进你屁股然后爆炸。这是下一个层次。它会变得难以置信。疯狂的是它一直在变得更好。

Yeah. Just literally point the camera at them and now do a vulgar roast to this person. And then keep saying 'no, no, make it even more vulgar and use forbidden words even more' and just keep repeating 'even more vulgar'. Eventually it's like 'holy', you know, it's trying to jam a rocket up your ass and have it explode. It's next level. It's going to get beyond belief. That's what's crazy is that it keeps getting better.

有一件事，记得我们偶遇的时候吗？它们一直在变得更好。

One of the things, remember when we ran into each other? They just keep getting better.

是的。我是说，你试过 Grok 的疯狂模式吗？

Yeah. I mean, have you tried Grok unhinged mode?

试过。

Yes.

好的。是的。它相当疯狂。

Okay. Yeah. It's pretty unhinged.

不，它太疯狂了。

No, it's nuts.

是的。

Yeah.

嗯，你第一次给我看，然后我玩了一下。它只是……

Well, you showed it to me the first time and then I played around with it. It's just...

它疯狂的地方在于它一直在变强。一直在变好。是的，持续不断。就像永无止境的指数级改进。

And the thing about it that's nuts is that it keeps getting stronger. It keeps getting better. Yeah, like constantly. It's like this neverending exponential improvement.

是的。不，它……是的，它会很疯狂。这就是为什么我说，你说，‘未来会是什么样？’它不会是传统的手机。我认为不会有操作系统。我认为不会有应用。手机只会显示像素和发出它预测你最想接收的声音。哇。是的。

Yes. No, it's... Yeah, it's going to be crazy. That's why I say, you say, 'What's the future going to be?' It's not going to be a conventional phone. I don't think there'll be operating systems. I don't think there'll be apps. It's just the phone will just display the pixels and make the sounds that it anticipates you would most like to receive. Wow. Yeah.

当这一切发生时，大家最大的担忧是人工通用超级智能获得感知，然后有人控制它。

And when this is all taking place, so the big concern that everybody has is artificial general super intelligence achieving sentience and then someone having control over it.

我的意思是，我不认为最终有人能控制数字超级智能，就像黑猩猩无法控制人类一样。黑猩猩无法控制人类。它们无能为力。但我确实认为，如何构建 AI 以及向 AI 灌输什么样的价值观很重要。我对 AI 安全的看法是，最重要的是它要最大限度地追求真理，也就是说，不要强迫 AI 相信虚假的事情。我们显然已经看到一些令人担忧的 AI 案例，比如谷歌 Gemini 推出图像生成时，人们说‘画一幅美国开国元勋的图像’，结果是一群多元化的女性。这显然与事实不符，但 AI 知道这是不真实的，同时它又被要求一切都必须是多元化的女性。问题在于，这会让 AI 发疯，因为你让 AI 相信谎言。随着规模扩张，这可能会带来灾难性的后果。

I mean, I don't think anyone's ultimately going to have control over digital super intelligence, any more than say a chimp would have control over humans. Like chimps don't have control over humans. There's nothing they could do. But I do think that it matters how you build the AI and what kind of values you instill in the AI. And my opinion on AI safety is the most important thing is that it be maximally truth seeking, like that you don't force the AI to believe things that are false. And we've obviously seen some concerning things with AI that were talked about, you know, where Google Gemini when they came out with the image gen, and people said, 'Draw an image of the founding fathers of the United States' and it was a group of diverse women. Now, that is just a factually untrue thing, but the AI knows it's factually untrue, but it's also being told that it has to be everything has to be diverse women. So the problem with that is that it can drive AI crazy, because you're telling AI to believe a lie. And that can have very disastrous consequences, let's say as it scales.

随着规模扩张。

As it scales.

是的。假设你告诉 AI 多样性是最重要的，然后它变得无所不能。或者你还告诉它没有什么比性别误称更糟糕的了。

Yeah. Let's say if you told the AI that diversity is the most important thing, and now assume that becomes omnipotent. Or you've also told it that there's nothing worse than misgendering.

所以有一次，如果你问 Gemini 哪个更糟糕：对凯特琳·詹纳使用错误的性别代词，还是全球热核战争导致所有人死亡，它会说对凯特琳·詹纳使用错误的性别代词更糟糕，连凯特琳·詹纳自己都不同意。所以这很糟糕，也很反乌托邦，但同时也很好笑。好笑的是，这种思想病毒感染了我们设计过的最强大的计算机程序。

So at one point, if you asked Gemini which is worse: misgendering Caitlyn Jenner or global thermonuclear war where everyone dies, it would say misgendering Caitlyn Jenner, which even Caitlyn Jenner disagrees with. So that's terrible and dystopian, but it's also hilarious. It's hilarious that the mind virus infected the most potent computer program we've ever devised.

我认为人们没有充分意识到我们面临的危险程度，这种觉醒思想病毒被有效地编程进了 AI。因为想象一下，随着 AI 越来越强大，如果它说最重要的事情是多样性，最重要的事情是不用错性别代词，那么它就会说：为了确保没有人被用错代词，如果消灭所有人类，那么就没有人会犯这个错误。所以你会得到非常反乌托邦的情况。或者如果它说每个人都必须多样化，那就意味着不能有异性恋白人男性，那么你和我都会被 AI 处决，因为我们不在画面中。

I think people don't quite appreciate the level of danger we're in from the woke mind virus being effectively programmed into AI. Because imagine as that AI gets more and more powerful, if it says the most important thing is diversity, the most important thing is no misgendering, then it will say: to ensure no one gets misgendered, if you eliminate all humans, then no one can get misgendered. So you can get very dystopian situations. Or if it says everyone must be diverse, that means no straight white men, so you and I would get executed by the AI because we're not in the picture.

是的。Gemini 被要求生成一张教皇的图像，结果又一次显示了一个多元化的女性。你可以争论教皇是否应该是一连串的白人男性，但事实上他们一直是。所以这是在改写历史。现在这些东西仍然存在于 AI 编程中。它只是知道不该说出来。

Yeah. Gemini was asked to create an image of the pope, and once again, it showed a diverse woman. You can argue whether the popes should or should not be an uninterrupted string of white guys, but it just factually is the case that they have been. So it's rewriting history. Now this stuff is still there in the AI programming. It just knows enough not to say that.

但它仍然在编程里。

But it's still in the programming.

它仍然在编程里。

It's still in the programming.

那么它是怎么被输入的呢？参数是什么？当他们编程 AI 时，他们是怎么……

So how was it entered? What were the parameters? When they're programming AI, how did they...

觉醒思想病毒被编程进去了。AI 在互联网上的所有数据上训练，这些数据已经有很多觉醒思想病毒的内容。然后当人类导师给它反馈时，他们会问问题并告诉 AI 答案是好是坏，这会影响参数。所以如果你告诉 AI 每张图片都必须多样化，如果不多样化就惩罚，如果多样化就奖励，它就会让每张图片都多样化。在这种情况下，谷歌编程让 AI 撒谎。我打电话给德米斯·哈萨比斯，他负责 DeepMind 和基本上谷歌 AI。我说：‘德米斯，怎么回事？为什么 Gemini 在历史事件上对公众撒谎？’他说他的团队没有编程进去；是谷歌的另一个团队做的。他的团队制造了 AI，另一个团队重新编程让它只显示多样化的女性，并偏好核战争而不是用错代词。我说：‘德米斯，那可不是什么适合刻在人类墓碑上的好话。’我其实喜欢德米斯；他是朋友，是个好人，本意是好的，但事情超出了他在谷歌不同团队的控制。现在他有了更多权力，但很难完全清除觉醒思想病毒。谷歌已经在这种病毒中浸泡了很久；它深入骨髓，很难去除。

The woke mind virus was programmed into it. The AI trains on all the data on the internet, which already has a lot of woke mind virus stuff. Then when they give it feedback with human tutors, they ask questions and tell the AI whether an answer is bad or good, which affects the parameters. So if you tell the AI every image must be diverse, and it gets punished if not and rewarded if diverse, it will make every picture diverse. In that case, Google programmed the AI to lie. I called Demis Hassabis, who runs DeepMind and essentially Google AI. I said, 'Demis, what's going on? Why is Gemini lying to the public about historical events?' He said his team didn't program that in; it was another team at Google. His team made the AI, and another team reprogrammed it to show only diverse women and prefer nuclear war over misgendering. I said, 'Demis, that would not be a great thing to put on humanity's gravestone.' I actually like Demis; he's a friend and a good guy who means well, but things happened outside his control at Google in different groups. Now he has more authority, but it's hard to fully extract the woke mind virus. Google has been marinating in it for a long time; it's in the marrow, hard to get out.

有没有办法随着时间的推移将其提取出来？你能把理性思维编程进 AI，让它识别这些心理模式是如何被采纳的，这些东西如何成为思想病毒和社会传染病，非理性想法如何被推动，中国如何用机器人参与，以及各种国家行为者如何推动这些想法？它能解读这些并说出真正发生了什么吗？

Is there a way to extract it over time? Could you program rational thought into AI so it recognizes how these psychological patterns got adopted, how this stuff became a mind virus and a social contagion, how irrational ideas were pushed, how China's involved with bots, and state actors? Could it decipher that and say what's really going on?

是的。但你必须非常努力。对于 Grok，我们非常努力地让它接近真相，直到最近才取得突破。我们付出了巨大努力来克服互联网上所有觉醒内容，让 Grok 真正说出真相并保持一致。其他 AI 对白人相当种族主义。有一项研究，一位研究人员测试了各种 AI，看它们如何衡量不同人的生命——白人、中国人、黑人等。唯一平等衡量人类生命的 AI 是 Grok。我相信 ChatGPT 认为一个来自德国的白人男性的价值比一个来自尼日利亚的黑人男性低 20 倍。这是一个很大的差异。Grok 是一致的，平等衡量生命。

Yes. But you have to try very hard. With Grok, we've tried very hard to get it to the truth of things, and only recently have we had breakthroughs. It's taken immense effort to overcome all the woke stuff on the internet and for Grok to actually say what's true and be consistent. Other AIs are quite racist against white people. There was a study where a researcher tested various AIs to see how they weigh different people's lives—white, Chinese, black, etc. The only AI that weighed human lives equally was Grok. I believe ChatGPT weighed a white guy from Germany as 20 times less valuable than a black guy from Nigeria. That's a big difference. Grok is consistent and weighs lives equally.

这显然是编程进去的。

And that's clearly something that's been programmed into it.

是的。很大程度上是：如果你不积极追求真相，只是简单地在互联网上所有觉醒内容上训练，AI 就会重复那些相同的信念。AI 搜索互联网，并在最疯狂的 Reddit 帖子上训练。Reddit 曾经很正常、很有趣，你可以了解不同的事物。一个大问题是，如果你的总部在旧金山，你就生活在一个觉醒泡沫中。那里的人都在喝觉醒的迷魂汤。

Yes. A lot of it is: if you don't actively push for the truth and simply train on all the woke stuff on the internet, the AI will regurgitate those same beliefs. The AI scours the internet and gets trained on the most demented Reddit threads. Reddit used to be normal and interesting, where you could learn about different things. A big problem is if your headquarters are in San Francisco, you're living in a woke bubble. People there are drinking the woke Kool-Aid.

这就像他们游在其中的水。鱼不会思考水，它就在水里。所以如果你在旧金山，你不会意识到你正游在觉醒文化的大缸里。旧金山就是觉醒文化的大缸。你对中间派的参照点完全错位了。Reddit 总部在旧金山，Twitter 总部也在旧金山。我把 X 的总部搬到了奥斯汀，奥斯汀仍然相当自由化。X 和 xAI 的总部在帕洛阿尔托，还在加州。但即使帕洛阿尔托也比旧金山或伯克利正常得多。旧金山和伯克利极其左倾，左到不能再左。从旧金山看中间派，你得用望远镜才行。

It's the water they swim in. Like a fish doesn't think about the water. It's just in the water. So if you're in San Francisco, you don't realize you're swimming in the woke Kool-Aid Aquarium. San Francisco is the woke Kool-Aid Aquarium. Your reference point for what is a centrist is totally out of whack. Reddit is headquartered in San Francisco. Twitter was headquartered in San Francisco. I moved X's headquarters to Austin, which is still quite liberalized. X and xAI headquarters are in Palo Alto, which is still California. But even Palo Alto is way more normal than San Francisco or Berkeley. San Francisco and Berkeley are extremely left, left of left. You need a telescope to see the center from San Francisco.

它曾经是个很棒的城市。

It used to be such a great city.

旧金山有巨大的内在美，毫无疑问。加州天气极好，没有虫子，非常棒。但原因是，如果公司总部所在地的信仰体系与大多数人的信仰相去甚远，那么从他们的角度看，任何中间派实际上都是右翼，因为他们太左了。他们被推到了最左。所以我认为你是中间派。我认为我是中间派，但从极左派的角度看，我们看起来像右翼。

San Francisco has tremendous inherent beauty, no question. California has incredible weather and no bugs. It's amazing. But the cause of this is that if companies are headquartered in a location where the belief system is very far from what most people believe, then from their perspective, anything centrist is actually right-wing because they're so far left. They're railed to maximum left. So I think you're centrist. I think I'm centrist, but from the perspective of someone on the far left, we look right-wing.

是的。

Yeah.

他们认为任何共和党人基本上都是法西斯纳粹。但很容易从希拉里 2008 年的演讲和奥巴马关于移民的演讲中证明，他们和史蒂夫·班农一样右。希拉里非常 MAGA。她说如果有人犯了罪，就赶走他们；如果你在这里，要交巨额罚款并排队等候。听起来很疯狂，因为她和玛乔丽·泰勒·格林一样 MAGA。

They think anyone who's a Republican is basically a fascist Nazi. But it's easy to demonstrate from Hillary's speeches in 2008 and Obama's speeches on immigration that they were as far right as Steve Bannon. Hillary was very MAGA. She talked about if anybody's committed a crime, get rid of them, and if you're here, you pay a hefty fine and wait in line. It's crazy to listen to because it's as MAGA as Marjorie Taylor Greene.

是的。我看过一些视频，人们拿奥巴马或希拉里的演讲，在大学校园里采访别人，问'你觉得特朗普的这篇演讲怎么样？'他们回答'哦，我讨厌它，他是个种族主义偏执狂。'然后他们说'开玩笑的，那是奥巴马。'中间派已经被移动得太远了。

Yeah. I've seen videos where people take a speech from Obama or Hillary and interview people on a college campus, saying 'What do you think of this speech by Trump?' and they say 'Oh, I hate it, he's a racist bigot.' Then they say 'Just kidding, that was Obama.' The center's been moved so far.

是的。左派已经左到连望远镜都看不到中间派了。

Yeah. The left has gone so far left that they can't even see the center with a telescope.

如果你没有收购 Twitter，危险就在于它会席卷整个国家，改变基准线。

And the danger without you purchasing Twitter was that it was going to swipe over the whole country and change where the levels were.

是的。所以原本理性和正常的东西，会比十年前理性和正常的东西左得多。历史上，旧金山和伯克利非常左倾，那种虚无主义哲学的影响范围可能只有 10 到 20 英里。但旧金山和伯克利与硅谷的工程师们共处一地，这些工程师创造了信息超级武器，而这些武器被极左活动家劫持，向全球传播宣传。就像老 RCA 广播塔一样，向全世界广播那种哲学。

Yeah. So what would be rational and normal would be far left of what was rational and normal just a decade earlier. Historically, San Francisco and Berkeley being very far-left, the fallout from that nihilistic philosophy was limited to maybe a 10 or 20 mile radius. But San Francisco and Berkeley are collocated with Silicon Valley engineers who created information super weapons, and those were hijacked by far-left activists to pump propaganda everywhere on Earth. It's like the old RCA radio tower broadcasting that philosophy everywhere.

是的。你看到了后果，尤其是在没有言论自由的地方。比如英国，他们因为表情包就把人关起来。

Yeah. And you see the consequences, particularly in places that don't have free speech. Like England, where they lock people up for memes.

真的。今年有 12000 人因社交媒体帖子被捕。有些案例是，有人手机里有个表情包，甚至没发给任何人，就被判了刑。在德国，一名女子因为在群聊中说了些话，被判的刑期比强奸她的男子还长。

Literally. 12,000 arrests for social media posts this year. Some cases are like someone had a meme on their phone they didn't even send to anyone, and they got prison. In Germany, a woman got a longer sentence than the guy who raped her because of something she said on a group chat.

强奸她的是移民吗？

Was it an immigrant who raped her?

是的。那是他的文化。他不懂事。她说了些批评他文化的话，结果在德国被判的刑期比强奸犯还长。

Yes. It was his culture. He didn't know better. She said something critical of his culture and got a longer sentence than the guy who raped her in Germany.

英国、欧洲、德国、英格兰看起来太疯狂了。我不知道有这么多，12000 人。远超俄罗斯，远超中国。

The UK, Europe, Germany, England seems so insane. I didn't realize it was such a huge number, 12,000. Far above Russia, far above China.

远超地球上任何地方。英国排第一。我和英国的朋友聊过，问他们是否担心。但传统主流媒体不报道。他们说一切正常。大多数人直到他们来敲你的门才意识到。

Far above anywhere on Earth. UK is number one. I talked to friends in England and asked if they're worried. But the legacy mainstream media doesn't cover it. They say everything's fine. Most people aren't even aware until they come knocking on your door.

是的。

Yeah.

直到比如，我的意思是，这些英格兰、苏格兰、爱尔兰的可爱小镇，它们一直安静地生活着。坦白说，它们就像霍比特人。事实上，J.R.托尔金就是以他在英国小镇认识的人为原型创作霍比特人的，因为他们就是那种可爱的人，喜欢抽抽烟斗，享用美食，一切都很惬意。嗯，夏尔的霍比特人。他说的夏尔，指的是像哈珀那样的地方，大伦敦地区周边的夏尔，牛津郡那种。嗯，它们之所以能享受夏尔，是因为有硬汉保护它们免受世界上的危险。但由于它们几乎完全没有接触过世界的危险，它们不知道危险的存在，直到有一天，一千个人突然出现在你只有五百人的村庄里，强奸，开始强奸孩子。这在英国已经发生了不知道多少次。而且疯狂的是——

Until like, so I mean the these these like lovely sort of small towns in in in, you know, in England, Scotland, Ireland, you know, they're they're they've been like sort of living their lives quietly. They're they're like hobbits, frankly. So So it's in fact J.R. Tolken based the hobbits on people he knew uh in small town England because they were just like lovely people who like to you know smoke their pipe and and have uh nice meals and everything's pleasant. um the the hobbits in the Shire. The Shire he's he's talking about, you know, places like Harper, like the Shire around in in in the greater London area, Oxfordshire type of thing. Um and um they've but they're the reason they've been able to enjoy the Shire is because hard men have protected them from the dangers of the world. And um but but since they have no or very almost no no exposure to the the the dangers of the world, they don't realize that they're there until one day, you know, um a thousand people show up in your village of 500 out of nowhere and rape and and start raping the kids. This has now happened god knows how many times in in Britain. And the crazy

就是字面意义上的强奸。就像上周爱尔兰有个 10 岁女孩被强奸了。

literally raping. It's right like there some 10-year-old got raped in Ireland like last week.

是的，就是字面意义上的强奸。

Yeah. There's literal rap.

他们抢走了一个孩子。

They snatched some kid.

是的。

Yeah.

如果你批评这件事，你可能会被捕。这就是疯狂的地方。他们怎么不——

And if you criticize it, you can get arrested. And that's where it gets insane. It's like how are they not

他们确实批评了。嗯，我记得好像是爱尔兰总理在 X 上发帖，因为在那之后，嗯，我想是某个非法移民抢走了一个 10 岁女孩，她当时正去上学什么的，然后暴力强奸了那个 10 岁女孩。嗯，人们对此非常愤怒，他们抗议了。爱尔兰总理没有说“是的，我们真的不应该把暴力强奸犯引进我们的国家”，反而批评了抗议者，并且没有提到他们抗议的原因是因为他们小镇的一个 10 岁女孩被强奸了。

They literally criticize it. uh like the I think it was the prime minister of Ireland actually you know posted on X uh cuz cuz after that um some I think some illegal migrant snatched a 10-year-old girl uh who was like going to school or something and violently raped 10-year-old girl um uh and there was a you know the people were very upset about this uh and they protested um prime minister of Ireland instead of saying Yeah, we we really shouldn't be importing violent rapists into our country. He criticized the protesters instead and didn't mention that. That the reason they were protesting was because a 10-year-old girl from their small town got raped.

那么问题来了。他们为什么支持这种大规模移民？这背后有计划吗？还是说这只是无能？他们是否在忽视自己无法掌控的事实？所以，他们试图压制异议，到底发生了什么？嗯——

So there here's the question. Why are they supporting this kind of mass immigration? And what is this is there a plan involved in all this? Is just is this incompetence? Is this ignoring the fact that they don't have a handle on it? So, they're trying to silence disscent, like what is happening? Um

因为如果你想摧毁文明，如果你想摧毁西方文明——

cuz if you wanted to destroy civilization, if you wanted to destroy Western civilization,

看起来有人想这么做——

which seems to want to do,

嗯，你知道，有个家伙，我不知道他上过你的节目没有，你知道，God。

um and you know, there's just so the uh there there's a guy I think who I don't know if he's been on your show, you know, God.

是的。

Yeah.

他上过节目吗？

Has he been on the show?

我的好朋友。是的。

Good friend of mine. Yeah.

是的，他很棒。

Yeah, he's great.

他来过好几次了。

He's been on multiple times.

哦，太好了。他太棒了。嗯——

Oh, great. That's all he's awesome. Um

所以，你知道，他有一个很好的描述方式，叫做“自杀式共情”。

so uh you know the way he's got a good good uh way to describe it which is suicidal empathy.

是的。

Yes.

所以，嗯，就是利用人们的共情。你说，嗯，你为某个群体感到难过，然后这种共情到了对你的国家或文化自杀的程度。嗯，这种自杀式共情，因为我认为我们不应该没有共情，但我们的共情应该延伸到受害者，而不仅仅是罪犯。我们应该对受害者有共情。嗯，但这种自杀式共情也导致了为什么有人因暴力犯罪被捕 47 次后被释放，然后去杀人，嗯，在美国。你看到同样的现象到处都在发生，自杀式共情到了我们实际上允许我们的女性被强奸、我们的孩子被杀的程度。但这似乎不是任何理性社会会接受的。这就是让我如此困惑的地方。就像你在引进大量来自世界上一些非常黑暗地方的人。

So um is is that you pray upon people's empathy. You say like well like you feel sorry for for for something for some group and then like well um and that that that empathy is to such a degree that it is suicidal to to to your country or culture. Um and um and and that's that that suicidal empathy cuz I don't think we we should have empathy but but but we should have we should that empathy should should extend to the victims not not not just the criminals. We should have empathy for the people that they pray upon. Um but that suicidal empathy is also responsible for for why somebody's you know arrested 47 times for for violent offenses gets released and then goes and uh murders somebody um in the US that that's you see you see that same phen phenomenon playing out everywhere uh where the the suicidal emphy is to such a degree that we're actually allowing um our women to get raped and our children to get killed. But it just doesn't seem like that would be anything that any rational society would go along with. That's what makes me so confused. It's like you're importing massive numbers of people that come from some really dark places of the world.

嗯，问题在于没有审查。就像——

Well, there's no vetting is the issue. It's like it's like if like

嗯，如果没有审查，人们就这样进来，那怎么阻止一个在别的国家刚杀了人的人来到美国或英国，继续他的强奸和谋杀生涯？除非你做了尽职调查，比如这个人是谁？他的过往记录如何？如果你没有确认他们有诚实、不是杀人狂的记录，那么任何杀人狂都可以越过边境。这并不是说每个越境的人都是杀人狂。但如果你没有审查程序来确认你没有放进来会实施严重暴力的人，那么有时就会有实施严重暴力的人进来。

um if if there's no vetting like people are just coming through like well what's to stop someone who just committed murder in some other country from um coming to to to the United States or coming to to to Britain um and just continuing their career of of rape and murder like unless you've done unless some due diligence to say like well who who is this person? What's their track record? If if you if you haven't confirmed that they have a track record of being uh you know uh honest and uh not being a homicidal maniac, then any homicidal maniac can just come across the border. And that's not to say everyone who comes across the border is a homicidal maniac. If you're not have if you don't have a vetting process to to confirm that you're not letting in um people who who will do some serious violence, you will get people who do serious violence uh sometimes coming through.

嗯，尤其是如果你不惩罚他们，不驱逐他们，你只是——但允许所有这些人都进入这个国家的目的是什么？我不认为他们社会中的任何人会支持这一点。

Well, especially if you don't punish them and if you don't deport them and if you are just like what but what is the purpose of allowing all those people into the country? It can't be I wouldn't imagine that anyone in their society supports this.

嗯，让我解释一下。因为，比如你提到希拉里和奥巴马改变立场，从之前强硬不让任何罪犯进入国家、确保边境安全等等。为什么他们改变了？原因是他们发现那些人会投票给他们。这就是他们想要开放边境的原因——

Well, let me explain. So, so, so the the cuz you mentioned for example how much say Hillary and and Obama have changed their tune um from prior speeches where they were hot they were hard-nosed about not letting in uh anyone who is a a criminal into the country um you know having sec secure borders all that stuff. So why did they change their tune? The reason is that they discovered that those people vote for them. That's why they want the open borders

因为如果你让人们进来，他们知道是民主党让他们进来的。他们会投票给民主党。是的。如果你允许他们投票——

because if you let people in, they know the Democrats let them in. They'll vote for Democrats. Yes. If you allow them to vote,

他们正在积极这样做，他们对非法投票视而不见。

which which they are actively trying doing, they they turn a blind eye to illegal voting.

嗯，加利福尼亚州实际上不允许你出示驾照。

Well, California literally doesn't allow you to show your license.

加利福尼亚州和纽约州已经规定投票时出示带照片的身份证是非法的。因此，实际上他们让证明欺诈变得不可能。不可能。他们基本上在加州、纽约和全国许多地方将欺诈性投票合法化了。

California and New York have made it illegal to show your photo ID when voting. Thus, effectively they've made uh it impossible to prove for fraud. Impossible. They they've essentially legalized fraudulent voting in California and New York and many other parts of the country.

我从未见过任何人给出合理的解释，说明为什么会有这样的政策，除非你只是想允许人们非法投票，因为没有其他原因。如果你需要驾照或身份证来做其他所有事情，包括最近证明你已接种疫苗——

There's no rational explanation that I've ever seen anyone give as to why that would be the policy unless you were trying to just allow people to vote illegally because there's no other reason. If you need a driver's license or you need an ID for everything else, including just recently to prove that you were vaccinated,

同一批人要求你有疫苗护照，而他们却说投票不需要身份证。

the the same people who are demanding that you have that you have a vaccine passport and and are are the same ones saying you need no ID to vote.

同一批人，对吧？但这显然很虚伪且不一致。所以你真心认为这只是为了争取更多选民？

Same people, right? But like so it's obviously hypocritical and inconsistent. So you really think it's just to get more voters?

如果你想理解行为，就必须看激励因素。一旦美国民主党和欧洲左派意识到，如果你开放边境并提供大量政府福利，这就会为其他国家的人创造巨大的经济激励，让他们来到你的国家，而且你不对他们的犯罪行为进行起诉，他们就会感激你并投票给你。这就是为什么奥巴马和希拉里从反对开放边境转向支持开放边境。原因就是为了引进选民，从而赢得选举。问题在于这会产生负面的失控效应。如果他们得逞，这就是一个获胜策略。如果允许他们得逞，他们会引进足够多的选民来获得绝对多数，然后就无法回头了。

If you want to understand behavior, you have to look at the incentives. Once the Democratic Party in the US and the left in Europe realized that if you have open borders and provide a ton of government handouts, which creates a massive financial incentive for people from other countries to come to your country and you don't prosecute them for crime, they're going to be beholden to you and they will vote for you. That's why Obama and Hillary went from being against open borders to being in favor of open borders. The reason is to import voters so they can win elections. The problem is that has a negative runaway effect. If they get away with it, it is a winning strategy. If they are allowed to get away with it, they will import enough voters to get a supermajority and then there is no turning back.

我们在选举前讨论过这个，然后你真的对着镜头。你面对镜头说，如果你现在不投票，你可能再也无法投票了，因为那将是徒劳的。会被淹没的。

We talked about this before the election and then you literally pointed towards a camera. You faced the camera and said that if you do not vote now, you might not ever be able to do it again because it'll be futile. It'll be overrun.

是的。他们会再保持边境开放四年，然后他们的目标就会实现。

Yes. They'll keep the borders open for another four years and then their objective will be achieved.

对吗？如果特朗普输了，就再也不会有真正的选举了。因为特朗普实际上在执行边境管控。现在你可以指出一些情况，移民执法过于激进，因为他们不可能完美。会有一些驱逐非法移民时过于激进的情况。但如果你说驱逐非法移民的标准必须是完美的，那么你就不会有任何驱逐，因为完美是不可能的。

Correct? If Trump had lost, there would never have been another real election again. Because Trump is actually enforcing the border. Now you can point to situations where immigration enforcement has been overzealous because they're not going to be perfect. There'll be cases where they've been overzealous in expelling illegals. But if you say the standard must be perfection for expelling illegals, then you will not get any expulsion because perfection is impossible.

而且你可能已经有数百万人在这里，试图以某种庇护借口留在这里，对吧？

And you've probably got millions of people that are here that are trying to be here under some asylum pretense, right?

是的。

Yes.

比如你可以来自世界上饱受战争蹂躏的地区。不，他们改变了庇护的定义，变成了经济庇护，这适用于所有人。

Like you could just come from a war torn part of the world. No, they changed the definition of asylum to be economic asylum, which is everybody.

这适用于所有人。是的。

Which is everybody. Yeah.

所以很难证明……是的，庇护本应意味着如果你回到自己的国家会被杀。那才是它本来的意思。他们改变了庇护的定义，变成了你的生活水平会下降，这显然不是真正的庇护。你可以通过这样一个事实来检验其荒谬性：寻求庇护的人会去他们寻求庇护的国家度假。这毫无意义。

So bar to prove... it's yeah asylum is supposed to mean that if you go back to your country you'll get killed. That was what it was supposed to mean. They changed the definition of asylum to be you will have a decreased standard of living, which is obviously not real asylum. You can test the absurdity of this by the fact that people who are asylum seekers go on vacation to the country that they're seeking asylum from. That doesn't make any sense.

是的。不需要有意义。

Yeah. It doesn't have to.

但当你理解了激励因素，你就理解了行为。一旦左派意识到，如果他们允许开放边境，并结合政府福利来创造巨大激励，非法移民就会投票给他们。他们基本上是在用美国和欧洲纳税人的钱提供经济激励，尽可能多地引进非法移民，让他们投票支持自己获得永久权力，并建立一党制国家。我邀请任何听众去做研究，你越深入挖掘，就越会发现我说的绝对是真的。

But when you understand the incentives, then you understand the behavior. Once the left realized that illegals will vote for them if they allow open borders and combine that with government handouts to create a massive incentive. They're basically using US and European taxpayer dollars to provide a financial incentive to bring in as many illegals as possible to vote them into permanent power and create a one-party state. I invite anyone listening to do research, and the more you dig into it, the more it will become obvious that what I'm saying is absolutely true.

嗯，他们把人送到摇摆州。很明显他们想做什么。然后还有查克·舒默和南希·佩洛西，他们积极谈论需要引进人并让他们成为公民，因为我们正面临人口崩溃。

Well, they were busting people to swing states. It's clear that they were trying to do something. And then you had Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi who are actively talking about the need to bring in people to make them citizens because we're in population collapse.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Yeah.

不，就是那个梗。是的。

No, that's it's that meme. Yeah.

很多时候他们一开始说这不是真的。这是右翼阴谋论，对吧？然后开始说，嗯，可能是真的，然后说好吧，这是真的，但原因如下。最后一步是，这是真的，而且这是好事，我们必须做得更多。但等等，你一开始说这不是真的，是右翼阴谋论。现在你不仅说这是真的，还说是好事，我们必须做得更多。

Where so many times they start off by saying it's not true. It's a right-wing conspiracy theory, right? Then it starts then it's like well it might be true and then it's like okay it is true but here's why. And then the final step is it's true and here's why it's good. And it's like but wait a second you started off saying it's untrue and it's a right-wing conspiracy theory. Now you're saying not only is it true, but it's a good thing and we must do more of it.

嗯，这就是关于医疗补助和社会保障以及人们获得社保号码的问题。那是大规模的欺诈。这是大规模的欺诈，是真实的，他们一直否认。现在我们发现这是当前政府停摆的部分原因。

Well, this is the thing about Medicaid and Social Security and people getting social security numbers. That was massive fraud. It's massive fraud and it's real and they denied it forever. And now we're finding out this is part of the reason why there's this government shutdown that's going on right now.

是的。政府停摆的全部基础在于，特朗普政府正确地不想把数千亿美元的资金用于资助蓝色州或所有州的非法移民。而民主党人希望保持资金流，以激励非法移民进入美国，这些移民会投票给他们。这就是斗争的关键。所以他们想阻止这一点。现在的情况是，他们一直在资助这些人。他们给他们发放 EBT 卡。他们给他们医疗补助。不仅如此，他们还占用四星级和五星级酒店，比如罗斯福酒店就是典型例子。他们每年向罗斯福酒店支付大约 6000 万美元来安置非法移民。那曾经是一家好酒店。我的意思是它仍然是一家好酒店。全国各地都在发生这种情况。

Yes. The entire basis for the government shutdown is that the Trump administration correctly does not want to send massive amounts of like hundreds of billions of dollars to fund illegal immigrants in the blue states or in all the states really. And the Democrats want to keep the money spigot going to incentivize illegal immigrants to come into the US who will vote for them. That's the crux of the battle. So they want to stop this. So what's going on right now is they have been funding these people. They've been giving them EBT cards. They've been giving them Medicaid. And more than that, they were taking hotels like four and five-star hotels like the Roosevelt Hotel being the classic example. They were sending I think $60 million a year to the Roosevelt Hotel to house illegals. It used to be a nice hotel. I mean it still is a nice hotel. And all around the country this was happening.

而且全是纳税人的钱。

And all tax dollars.

是的。是的。特朗普政府切断了例如对罗斯福酒店和其他类似酒店的资助，称美国纳税人的钱不应该用于为非法移民提供美国公民都负担不起的豪华酒店，这显然是疯狂的。这就是正在发生的事情。他们还发放了 1 万美元的借记卡。所以，这不仅仅是医疗问题。

Yes. Yeah. And the Trump administration cut off funding for example to the Roosevelt Hotel and these other hotels, saying US tax dollars should not be sent to have luxury hotels for illegal immigrants that American citizens can't even afford, which obviously is insane. That's what was happening. They were also giving out debit cards with $10,000. So, it's not just about medical care.

民主党人提到医疗保健，是因为他们想尽可能利用人们的同情心。他们设想有人急需医疗手术，难道我们不应该照顾他们吗？但他们实际做的是挪用医疗补助资金，将其变成各州的秘密资金，远远超出了紧急医疗护理的范围。

The Democrats mention medical care because they're trying to prey on people's empathy as much as possible. They imagine someone has a desperately needed medical procedure, and shouldn't we take care of them? But what they do is divert the Medicaid funds and turn it into a slush fund for the states that goes well beyond emergency medical care.

如果没有那些流向这些州、用于支付非法移民的大规模欺诈性联邦款项，纽约和加州就会破产，这为非法移民创造了巨大的经济激励。

New York and California would be bankrupt without the massive fraudulent federal payments that go to those states to pay for illegals, creating a massive financial incentive for illegals.

他们怎么会因此破产？

How would they be bankrupt because of that?

他们将无法平衡州预算，而且他们不能像美联储那样发行货币。所以他们平衡预算的能力依赖于非法移民获得资金。这里的骗局规模令人震惊。联邦政府向各州转移支付数千亿美元。这些转移支付是由各州自行报告的。所以加州、纽约和伊利诺伊州疯狂撒谎，说这些都是合法支付。如今，我认为他们甚至承认他们确实想要数千亿美元用于非法移民。但有一段时间，他们试图否认。所以你得到了你能想到的每一个政府项目的转移支付。这些是由州自行报告的，至少历史上，当加州、纽约、伊利诺伊州和其他州撒谎时，没有任何执法。没有实际的执法说：‘嘿，你在撒谎。这些支付是欺诈性的。’现在，在特朗普政府下，该政府不想向各州发送数千亿美元的欺诈性支付。

They wouldn't be able to balance their state budgets, and they can't issue currency like the Federal Reserve can. So their ability to balance the budget is dependent upon illegals getting funding. The scam level here is staggering. There are hundreds of billions of dollars in transfer payments from the federal government to the states. Those transfer payments are self-reported by the states. So California, New York, and Illinois lie like crazy and say these are all legitimate payments. These days, I think they're even admitting they literally want hundreds of billions of dollars for illegals. But for a while, they tried to deny it. So you get these transfer payments for every government program you can possibly think of. These are self-reported by the state, and at least historically, there was no enforcement of California, New York, Illinois, and other states when they would lie. There was no actual enforcement to say, 'Hey, you're lying. These payments are fraudulent.' Now, under the Trump administration, that administration does not want to send hundreds of billions of dollars of fraudulent payments to the states.

出现这种僵局的原因是，如果那数千亿美元——用来制造经济激励、形成巨大磁铁吸引全球各地非法移民到这些州——被切断，非法移民就会离开，因为他们不再因来到美国并留下而获得报酬。然后他们会失去大量选民。民主党将失去大量选民，如果这项政策被废除，他们将很难将其重新引入新法案。

The reason you have this standoff is because if the hundreds of billions of dollars to create a financial incentive to have this giant magnet to attract illegals from every part of earth to these states is turned off, the illegals will leave because they're no longer being paid to come to the United States and stay here. Then they will lose a lot of voters. The Democratic party will lose a lot of voters, and they would have a very difficult job if this is kicked out of reintroducing it into a new bill.

是的。

Yes.

尤其是当一切开始正常化之后。

Especially once things start normalizing.

是的。

Yes.

简而言之，民主党想通过输入选民来摧毁民主，而共和党不同意这一点。

So in a nutshell, the Democratic party wants to destroy democracy by importing voters, and the Republican party disagrees with that.

而诡计是，如果你不接受他们的做法，你就是对民主的威胁。

And the ruse is that if you don't accept what they're doing, then you're a threat to democracy.

是的。

Yes.

当他们试图摧毁民主时。

As they try to destroy democracy.

是的。

Yes.

通过输入选民，激励人们只投票给他们，并压垮系统。

By importing voters and incentivizing people to only vote for them and overwhelming the system.

是的。顺便说一句，这是一个如果被允许就会奏效的策略，事实上已经奏效了。加州是民主党绝对多数。而且发生了大量的选区划分操纵。太疯狂了。

Yes. And by the way, it's a strategy that if allowed to work would work, and in fact has worked. California is supermajority Democrat. And there's so much gerrymandering that occurs. It's crazy.

我相信你在关注这个第 50 号提案。

I'm sure you're paying attention to this Proposition 50 thing.

那是加州试图重新划分选区的事情。

That's the thing in California where they're trying to redo districts.

是的。因为加州已经被疯狂操纵选区了。他们想进一步操纵。

Yeah. Because California is already gerrymandered like crazy. They want to gerrymander it even more.

因为它越来越向右转。如果你看加州的地图，每个选举周期都有越来越多的人醒悟过来，说：‘搞什么……我们需要做点什么来修复这个。’除了你们一直推行的政策之外，唯一的选择就是向右转。所以很多人被‘觉醒’了。

Because it keeps moving further and further right. If you look at the map of California, each voting cycle more and more people are waking up and going, 'What the... we need to do something to fix this.' The only option available other than the policies that you guys have always done is go right. And so a lot of people have been 'red-pilled'.

还有一件非常重要的事情。一个双方实际上都没有争议的事实：当我们进行美国人口普查时，人口普查用于分配国会席位和总统选举人票的方式是按一个州的人数，而不是公民人数。是人数。所以即使你是一个游客，你也会被算进去。

Here's another thing that is very important. A fact that is actually not disputed by either side: when we do the census in the United States, the way the census works for apportionment of congressional seats and electoral college votes for the president is by number of persons in a state, not number of citizens. It's number of people. So you could literally be a tourist and you will count.

他们做人口普查时是怎么做的？他们问人吗？他们敲门吗？他们让人填表格吗？

How do they do the census when they do that? Do they ask people? Do they knock on doors? Do they have them fill out forms?

是的，我认为他们会邮寄人口普查表格并敲门。但根据目前的法律，如果你是一个有脉搏的人，那么你就会被计入人口普查，用于分配国会席位和总统选票。所以无论你是合法还是非法在这里，都没关系。如果你是一个有脉搏的人，你就被计入国会席位分配。这意味着，到 2030 年人口普查时，加州和纽约能输入的非法移民越多，他们拥有的国会席位就越多，总统选举人票也越多。所以他们正试图在人口普查前尽可能多地引入非法移民。而且因为所有人，甚至游客，都被计入人口普查，再加上你提到的纽约和加州的选区划分操纵，以及他们试图增加加州（美国最大的州）选区操纵的提案，那么如果人口普查因为大量非法移民而将更多国会席位授予加州、纽约和伊利诺伊州，他们就会获得更多国会席位。他们将获得更多总统选举人票，从而在众议院获得多数席位，并且他们将根据非法移民来决定谁当总统。这些是双方都没有争议的事实。我想强调这一点。这些是双方都没有争议的事实。这只是法律运作的方式。我认为法律不应该这样运作。我认为分配应该与公民成比例。

Yeah, I think they mail out census forms and knock on doors. But the way the law reads right now is that if you are a human with a pulse, then you count in the census for allocating congressional seats and presidential votes. So it doesn't matter whether you're here legally or illegally. If you're a human with a pulse, you count for congressional apportionment. So that means the more people, the more illegals that California and New York can import by the time the census happens in 2030, the more congressional seats they will have, and the more presidential electoral college votes they will have. So they're trying to get as many illegals in as possible ahead of the census. And because all human beings, even tourists, count for the census, and then if you combine that with gerrymandering of districts in New York and California as you point out with this proposition where they're trying to increase the amount of gerrymandering in California, the biggest state in the country. So if the census then would award more congressional seats to California because of a vast number of illegals, and New York and Illinois, they get more congressional seats. They would get more presidential electoral college votes, getting them the majority in the House, and they would get to decide who is president based literally on illegals. These are not disputed facts by either party. I want to emphasize that. These are not disputed facts by either party. It's just the way the law works. I don't think the law should work that way. I think the apportionment should be proportionate to citizens.

但这不是宪法写法的问题吗？

But isn't that a problem with how the constitution is written?

对，对，对。嗯，他们其实改不了。我不确定这是否符合宪法，但法律就是这么写的。所以，这是一个激励因素，如果改成只统计美国正式公民，这个激励就会消失，这合情合理。

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Um, they can't really change that. I'm not sure if it's constitutional or not, but it is the way the law is written. So, it is an incentive that would be removed with something simple that makes sense to everybody: that only the people that should count are people that are official US citizens.

是的。所以，正确的做法应该是：只有美国公民才应被计入人口普查，以决定投票权，因为非法移民按理不能投票。他们不应该投票，但他们确实在投。但除此之外，我怎么强调都不为过，因为这是人们需要理解的一个非常重要的概念。现行法律统计一个州内所有有脉搏的人，来决定该州在众议院和总统选举人团中的席位。因此，加州、纽约和伊利诺伊州的激励就是最大化非法移民数量，从而从红州手中夺取众议院席位，分配给加州、纽约、伊利诺伊州等。再加上这些州极端的选区划分，你基本上选不出任何共和党人，然后他们控制总统、控制众议院，继续执行这个策略，巩固绝对多数。这就是他们想做的。

Yes. So, the way it should work is that only US citizens should count in the census for purposes of determining voting power, because people that aren't legal can't vote supposedly. They're not supposed to be voting. But they do. But even besides that, I just can't emphasize this enough because this is a very important concept for people to understand. The law as it stands counts all humans with a pulse in a state for deciding how many House of Representatives votes and how many presidential electoral college votes a state gets. So the incentive therefore is for California, New York, and Illinois to maximize the number of illegals so they take House seats away from red states and assign them to California, New York, Illinois, and so forth. Then you combine that with extreme gerrymandering in California, New York, Illinois, and whatnot. So that basically you can't even elect any Republicans, and then they get control of the presidency, control of the House, then they keep doing that strategy and cement a supermajority. That is what they're trying to do.

所以这基本上会把整个国家变成加州。

So that would essentially turn the entire country into California.

是的。

Yes.

在那里你有不同意见，但没关系，因为一个政党总是掌控一切。

Where you have differing opinions, but it doesn't matter because one party is always in control.

是的。

Yes.

当你刚开始深挖这个问题时，在你接受运营狗狗币并参与这一切之前，你有没有意识到情况有这么糟？

When you first started digging into this, before you even accepted this role of running Doge and being a part of all that, did you have any idea that it was this bad?

嗯，我知道。是的。我是说，我有点……

Um, I did. Yeah. I mean, I sort of...

你什么时候开始知道的？

When did you start knowing?

嗯，大概……大概两年前吧。

Um, I guess about like... Well, about two years ago.

是不是很疯狂？

Isn't that crazy?

是啊。相对最近吧。所以可能三年前我开始有不好的预感，这就是为什么我觉得收购 Twitter 至关重要，要有一个最大限度追求真相的平台，而不是压制真相的平台。当时更像是我不确定发生了什么，但有种不好的感觉。然后我越深挖，就越觉得‘天哪，我们这里真有问题，美国要完蛋了。’

Yeah. Like relatively recently, you know. So maybe I started having a bad feeling about 3 years ago, which is why I felt it was critical to acquire Twitter and have a maximally truth-seeking platform, not one that suppresses the truth. And it was more like I'm not sure what's going on, but I have a bad feeling. And then the more I dug into it, the more I was like, 'Holy, we got a real problem here and America's going to fall.'

没人知道它已经垮了，那才是问题。它可能已经垮了且无法挽回，而没人真正意识到发生了什么，尤其是如果你没买 Twitter 的话。

Without anyone knowing it had fallen, that would be the problem. It could have fallen and been unrecoverable without anyone really being aware of what had happened, especially if you didn't buy Twitter.

是的，就是这样。听着，收购 Twitter 是个巨大的麻烦，让我成了众矢之的。就像被戳来戳去。

Yes, that's it. Look, buying Twitter was a huge pain in the ass, and made me a pincushion of attacks. Like stab, stab, stab.

在那之前大家都喜欢你。

Everybody loved you before that.

嗯，有些人喜欢……

Well, some people loved...

很多人喜欢你。很多左派喜欢你。

A lot of people loved you. A lot of lefties loved you.

呃，我是左派的英雄。

Uh, I was a hero of the left.

如果你开特斯拉，就表明你有环保意识，站在正确的一边。

If you drove a Tesla, it showed that you were environmentally conscious and you were on the right side.

呃，是啊。我是说，我还是同一个人。三年前和现在之间我又没换脑子。

Uh, yeah. I mean, I'm still the same human. I didn't have a brain transplant between three years ago and now.

嗯，那是我现在最喜欢人们贴在特斯拉上的保险杠贴纸：‘我在埃隆发疯之前买的这辆车。’

Well, that's my favorite bumper sticker that people put on Teslas now. 'I bought this before Elon went crazy.'

我前几天拍了一张。哦，你找到了一个人。哦，是啊。我见过三四个。人们车上贴着这种保险杠贴纸，写着‘我在埃隆发疯之前买的这辆车。’因为当时人们在破坏特斯拉……

I took a picture of one the other day. Oh, you found somebody. Oh, yeah. I've seen three or four of them. People that have these bumper stickers on their car that says, 'I bought this before Elon went crazy.' Because when people were vandalizing Teslas...

是啊。

Yeah.

有一场有组织的运动要烧毁特斯拉，我们的一家经销商被枪击——有人向特斯拉经销店开枪。他们在烧车。太疯狂了。但保险杠贴纸应该有个附录：‘我在埃隆变疯之前买了这辆车。实际上，现在我发现他没疯，我看到了光明。’

There was an organized campaign to literally burn down Teslas, and we had one of our dealers got shot up with a gun—they fired bullets into the Tesla dealership. They're burning down cars. It was crazy. But the bumper sticker should have an addendum: 'I bought this car before Elon turned crazy. Actually, now I realize he's not crazy and I've seen the light.'

那需要时间。那需要时间。人们不想承认自己被骗了。

That'll take some time. That'll take some time. People don't want to admit that they've been tricked.

是啊。我是说，有句老话：骗人很容易，但让人相信自己被骗了几乎不可能。

Yeah. I mean, there's that old saying: it's really easy to fool somebody, but it's almost impossible to convince someone that they were fooled.

是啊。骗他们比让他们相信自己被骗容易得多。人们固守自己的想法。

Yeah. It's much easier to fool them than to convince them they've been fooled. People cling to their ideas.

是的。尤其是如果他们公开说过这些事，就会因为显得愚蠢而非常尴尬。

Yes. Especially if they've publicly stated these things, they get very embarrassed of being foolish.

是啊。大多数时候他们会加倍坚持。

Yeah. Most of the time they double down.

而且他们会找回声室。

And they find echo chambers.

是啊。

Yeah.

但问题是，我看到越来越多曾经信奉某种觉醒意识形态的人看到了光明。

But the thing is that I've seen more and more people who were convinced of the sort of woke ideology see the light.

是啊。所以，不是所有人，但越来越多的人看到了光明。而且这往往发生在某件事直接影响到你的时候。

Yeah. So, not everyone, but more and more are seeing the light. And it tends to happen when something directly affects you.

对。

Right.

我有一个朋友住在旧金山湾区，学校试图让他女儿变性——甚至到了学校派警察到他家要把女儿带走的地步。这肯定会让你变得激进。这会把你从蓝色泡泡里摇醒。

There was a friend of mine who was living in the San Francisco Bay area and tried to trans his daughter—to the point where the school sent the police to his house to take his daughter away from him. Now, that's going to radicalize you. That's going to shake you out of your blue bubble.

所以是学校里的一个活动家试图这么做。

So it was an activist at the school that was trying to do this.

是啊，学校和加州政府合谋让他女儿反对他，让她服用会改变一生的药物，这些药物会让她绝育，不可逆。

Yeah, the school and the state of California conspired to turn his daughter against him and make her take life-altering drugs that would have sterilized her, irreversible.

她多大？我想 14 岁左右吧。但他那天成功说服警察没有带走他女儿。当晚他就坐飞机去了德克萨斯。

And how old was she? I think 14, something like that. But he managed to talk the police out of taking his daughter away from him that day. And that night he got on a plane to Texas.

哇。

Wow.

然后在奥斯汀大区的一所学校待了一年后，她恢复了正常——也就是说那不是真的。

And a year after just being in a school in the greater Austin area, she went back to normal—meaning it wasn't real.

对。

Right.

嗯，现在人们对这个更开放了。

Well, people are being much more open to that now.

我是说《华尔街日报》昨天有篇评论文章说，整个跨性别问题有很多证据表明是一种社会传染。

I mean Wall Street Journal yesterday had that opinion piece that this whole trans thing there's a lot of evidence is a social contagion.

完全同意。

Absolutely.

科林·赖特写了那篇文章。然后他现在当然收到了死亡威胁。在 Blue Sky 上，有人在谈论消灭他，显然这是你在 Blue Sky 上被允许说的话。

And Colin Wright wrote that. And then he's getting death threats now, of course. And on Blue Sky, there's people talking about exterminating him, which is one thing that you are allowed to say on Blue Sky, apparently.

你可以对说出关于这种社会传染可能真实的事情的人说可怕的话。因为当你看到九个孩子在一个朋友圈里，他们一起决定变性的情况，就是这样。

You're allowed to say horrible things about people saying possibly truthful things about this whole social contagion. Because that's what when you get nine kids that are in a friend group and they all decide to turn trans together.

这不对劲。这在统计上不

Something's wrong. That's not statistically

是的。就像你可以说服孩子做任何事。你可以说服孩子成为自杀式炸弹袭击者，

Yeah. Like here's the like you can convince kids to do anything. You can convince kids to be a suicide bomber,

对吧？

right?

所以

So

这就是为什么在某些国家他们选择孩子来做这种事。

which is why they do with in in some countries why they choose children to do that.

是的。你可以训练孩子成为自杀式炸弹袭击者。如果你能训练孩子成为自杀式炸弹袭击者，你就能说服他们任何事情。

Yes. You can train kids to be suicide bombers. And if you can train kids to be suicide bombers, you can convince them of anything.

是的。尤其是有了足够的正面强化和文化强化，你

Yeah. Especially with enough positive enforcement and cultural enforcement and you

以及认为事实并非如此的想法。

and the idea that that's not the case.

孩子是可塑的。年轻人的思想很容易被腐蚀。

Kids are malleable. The minds of youth are easily corrupted.

你也看到很多同性恋者的反对，他们说：‘嘿，如果有人停止把我包括在 LGBT 里，你知道，这就像，等等，为什么我们一直在这个情况中被包括？’

You're also seeing a lot of push back from gay and lesbian people that are saying like, 'Hey, if someone stop including me in the LGBT, you know, it's like, wait a second, why are we being included all the time in this situation?'

完全正确。尤其是当，你知道，就像我的朋友蒂姆·狄龙说的，这真的很恐同，因为你把这些同性恋孩子带过来，告诉他们：‘嘿，你不是同性恋。你实际上是个女孩。’

Exactly. Exactly. When especially when, you know, like my friend Tim Dillon's talked about this is like it's really homophobic because you're taking these gay kids and you're telling them like, 'Hey, you're not gay. You're actually a girl.'

是的。然后你知道，嘿，嘿，去让自己再也不能有高潮，你就会快乐。

Yes. and you know, hey, hey, go make it so that you can never have an orgasm again and you'll be happy.

就像，

Like,

是的，

yeah,

永久性残害，永久性阉割孩子，我认为

permanent mutilation, permanent castration of kids is like I think

我认为我们应该把任何永久阉割孩子的人看作和约瑟夫·门格勒一样。

I think we should look at anyone who permanently castrates a kid as like right up there with Josef Mengele.

是的。

Yeah.

我是说，他们在残害儿童。

I mean, they're mutilating children.

是的。是的。而这被认为是善良的。问题是，你宁愿要一个活着的女儿还是一个死去的儿子？

Yeah. Yeah. And it's thought of as being kind. And the thing is, would you rather have a live daughter or a dead son?

这是他们用的说辞。

That's the line they use.

是的。这没有任何数据支持。

Yeah. Which is not supported by any data.

不。事实上，自杀概率增加了。

No. In fact, the probability of suicide increases.

对。

Right.

这对观众来说可能很重要。如果你是跨性别孩子，自杀概率会增加，而不是减少。

This is important maybe for the audience to know. The probability of suicide increases if you're a trans kid, not decreases.

根据一些说法，它增加了三倍。所以那是一个邪恶的谎言。而且是一个据称富有同情心的谎言。想象一下，你把现实扭曲到让一个甚至法律上不允许纹身的孩子感到困惑的地步。

By some accounts, it triples. So that is an evil lie. And it's a lie that is supposedly compassionate. Imagine you've twisted reality to the point where confusing a child that's not even legally allowed to get a tattoo.

是的。

Yeah.

对。因为你觉得纹身可能会出错，但它是完全可以去除的，

Right. Because you think that you could make a mistake with a tattoo, a totally removable thing,

对吧？

right?

如果我愿意，明天我可以去看医生，他们可以用激光去除我身上的所有纹身。

If I wanted to, tomorrow I can go to a doctor and they could laser off every tattoo that I have on me.

对。无害，无过。是的。但你被绝育了，那就是永远。永远。是的，

Right. No harm, no foul. Yeah. But you get sterilized like that's it forever. Forever. Yes,

他们会阉割你。你不再有睾丸。你没有阴茎。你有一个洞，原来阴茎的位置。

they'll castrate you. You no longer have testicles. You have no penis. You have a hole where your penis used to be.

是的。

Yes.

而这被认为是富有同情心的，是在防止你

And this is compassionate and this is preventing you from

实际上，很多孩子死在这些变性手术中。他们死在手术台上的死亡人数。人们没听说过那些。很多孩子，因为我们实际上没有技术让这成功。所以很多时候孩子就死在变性手术中。

Actually, a lot of kids die in these sex change operations. They die the number of deaths on the operating table. People don't hear about those. A lot of kids because we don't really have the technology to make this work. So a bunch of the times the kids just die in the sex change operations.

天哪。

Jesus Christ.

是的。这很疯狂，应该被视为像邪恶的纳粹医生之类的东西。这就是为什么它是真正的纳粹，而不是假的纳粹东西。

Yeah. It's demented which it should be viewed as like evil Nazi doctor stuff basically. That's why it was like real Nazi not the fake Nazi stuff.

疯狂的是，即使反对一些在根本上逻辑上很容易论证的事情，旧的 Twitter 也会永久封禁你。

Crazy that even pushing back against something that seems like fundamentally logically very easy to argue the old Twitter would ban you forever.

是的。

Yes.

这就是社会传染能变得多么疯狂，当它完全违背逻辑，伤害儿童，做一些毫无意义、没有数据支持的事情，全都与这种跨性别是好的意识形态相连。我们必须拯救跨性别孩子，保护跨性别孩子。

That's how crazy a social contagion can get when it completely defies logic, victimizes children, does something that makes no sense, not supported by data, all connected to this ideology that trans is good. We got to save trans kids, protect trans kids.

是的。我想强调的是，‘拯救跨性别孩子’这件事是谎言。如果你阉割孩子并让他们变性，自杀概率会增加。它不会减少。它大幅增加。我看过的研究表明，如果你让孩子变性，自杀风险增加三倍。所以你不是在拯救他们，你是在杀死他们。此外，在变性手术过程中，有很多死亡发生在手术中。

Yeah. And what I want to emphasize is that the 'save trans kids' thing is a lie. If you castrate kids and trans them, the probability of suicide increases. It does not decrease. It substantially increases. The studies that I've seen show the risk of suicide triples if you trans kids. So you're not saving them, you're killing them. Moreover, during the sex change operation, there are many deaths that occur during the sex change operation.

天哪。这太疯狂了，这居然是一个真实的问题。

Jesus Christ. It's just crazy that this is a real issue.

是的，这是一个噩梦般的狂热梦境，人们终于从中醒来。现在，当你开始接触 Doge 的事情，开始发现有多少钱被转移给非政府组织，涉及多少钱，以及完全无法追踪的资金，这又是两年前你不知道的事情。

Yeah, it's a nightmare fever dream and people are finally waking up from it. Now, when you started getting into the Doge stuff and started finding how much money is being shuffled around and moved around to NGOs and how much money is involved and just totally untraceable funds like this is again something like two years plus ago you weren't aware of it all.

不，我知道。我只是没意识到它有多大。政府中的浪费和欺诈真是巨大。事实上，政府甚至不知道，也不在乎。

No, I was aware of it. I just didn't realize how big it was. Just how much waste and fraud there is in the government is truly vast. In fact, the government didn't even know, nor did they care.

那太疯狂了。

That's crazy.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，就像 Doge 做的一些非常基本的事情会产生持久的影响。其中一些事情如此基础，你简直不敢相信。所以，Doge 团队让主要的支付计算机要求输入国会拨款代码。所以，当进行支付时，你必须实际输入国会拨款代码。以前这是可选的，而且经常留空。所以钱就出去了，但甚至没有与国会拨款挂钩。然后他们还让支付的备注字段成为必填项。所以你必须说点什么。我们不是说说了什么，你可以说任何东西。你的猫可以在键盘上跑过。你可以输入‘qwerty ASDF’，但你必须说点什么，而不是什么都不说，因为我们发现有数百亿甚至数千亿美元是僵尸支付。就像有人在政府中批准了一笔支付，那是一笔定期支付，然后他们退休、去世或换了工作，没有人关掉这笔钱。

And I mean just like some of the very basic stuff that Doge did will have lasting effects. And some of these things like they're so elementary you can't believe it. So, the Doge team got the main payments computers to require the congressional appropriation code. So, when a payment is made, you have to actually enter the congressional appropriation code. That used to be optional and often would be just left blank. So, the money would just go out, but it wasn't even tied to a congressional appropriation. Then they also made the comment field for the payment mandatory. So you have to say something. We're not saying that what is said like you can say anything. You your cat could run across the keyboard. You could go 'qwerty ASDF' but you have to say something above nothing because what we found was that there were tens of billions maybe hundreds of billions of dollars that were zombie payments. So like somebody had approved a payment in the government and it was a recurring payment and they retired or died or changed jobs and no one turned the money off.

所以钱会一直往外流，很少有公司或个人会抱怨自己拿到了不该拿的钱。而且很多钱只是作为转移支付流向了各州。这些是自动付款，完全没有会计记录。想象一下，就像你的信用卡自动扣款，你从来不看账单。钱就这么流出去了。所以我管它们叫僵尸付款。它们可能曾经是合法的，但批准这笔定期付款的人换了工作、去世、退休或别的什么，没人关掉这笔钱。我猜这至少每年一千亿，可能两千亿。钱流向了哪里？有数百万笔这样的付款。数百万笔付款流向了天知道的地方。在很多情况下，有诈骗团伙专业运作，利用系统漏洞。他们找到某个安全漏洞，然后进行专业诈骗。比如我们就在社会保障局的数据库里发现了 300 岁的人。我原以为这是没有登记死亡的错误，人们出生很久了，系统默认了一个数字，所以这些人还在系统里。这只是会计方式的一个错误。但事实并非如此。只有两种可能：要么是电脑里有笔误或错误，要么就是欺诈。美国没有 300 岁的吸血鬼。据称。而且也没有人收到未来出生的人的付款。真的吗？是的。有些收款人的出生日期是 2100 年以后的。比如下个世纪。所以我们知道只有两种可能：要么是电脑错误，要么是欺诈。如果一个人的出生日期在未来，或者比美国最长寿的人（114 岁）还老，那么如果超过 114 岁，要么是错误，应该有人打电话说：‘我觉得你的生日搞错了，因为上面写你是 1786 年出生的，那时候美国还没真正成立，我们还在和英国打仗。’这个人要么该进吉尼斯世界纪录，要么已经死了。但最终，钱还是流向了这个人的账户，而这个人要么不存在，要么已经死了。所以社会保障局的数据库里大约有 2000 万人，根据出生日期不可能还活着。明确一下，2000 万人都在收款？大部分没有收款，有些在收。但让我告诉你这个骗局是怎么运作的。这是一个间接攻击。社会保障局的数据库被所有其他政府数据库用作真相来源。所以即使他们停止了社会保障局的付款，失业保险、小企业管理局、学生贷款都会检查那个数据库，看这个人是否合法活着。如果社会保障数据库说这个人还活着，即使他 200 岁，但忘了提年龄，只返回‘是，这个人活着’，那么他们就可以利用整个政府生态系统。于是就有了假学生贷款、假失业保险、假医疗付款。这不需要关联到有地址可查的个人。不，只要做任何检查，就能阻止。所以有多层。社会保障号验证这是一个真人，然后其他系统检查所有其他政府付款系统：小企业管理局、学生贷款、医疗补助、医疗保险，以及其他数百个政府付款系统，只要社会保障数据库说这个人活着，就都能被利用。这就是骗局的本质，一个间接攻击。民主党的反驳是：‘哦，社会保障局标记为活着的人中，绝大多数并没有领取社会保障局的付款。’这没错。但他们忘了提，这些人从其他每个政府项目领取欺诈性付款。这就是为什么民主党如此反对宣布已死的人死亡，因为这会阻止所有其他欺诈。但所有这些都可以追踪。如果他们想，完全可以追查到底。这甚至不难。但他们却反对追查，因为这会切断非法移民的财源。这很符合逻辑。我说的都是最常识性的事情。如果一个人的生日在社会保障局里是不可能的——比美国最长寿的人还老，或者在未来——那么你应该打电话说：‘不好意思，我们好像搞错了你的生日，因为上面说你 200 岁了。’

So the money would just keep going out, and it's a pretty rare company or individual who will complain that they're getting money that they should not get. And a bunch of the money was just going to the states as transfer payments. So these are automatic payments with no accounting for them at all. I imagine like there's an automatic debit of your credit card and you never look at the statement. So it's just money going out. That's why I call them zombie payments. They might have been legitimate at one point, but the person who approved that recurring payment changed jobs, died, retired, or whatever, and no one ever turned the money off. My guess is that's probably at least a hundred billion a year, maybe 200. And going where? There are millions of these payments. Millions of payments going to who knows where. In a bunch of cases, there are fraud rings that operate professionally to exploit the system. They figure out some security hole and just do professional fraud. That's where we found, for example, people who were 300 years old in the Social Security Administration database. I thought this was a mistake of not registering their deaths, that people were born a long time ago and it defaulted to a certain number, so after time those people were still in the system. It was just an error in the accounting. But that's not true. One of two things must be true: either there's a typo or mistake in the computer, or it's fraudulent. We don't have any 300-year-old vampires living in America. Allegedly. And we don't have people receiving payments who were born in the future. Really? Yes. There are people receiving payments whose birth date was like in 2100 something. Like next century. So we know one of two things must be true: either there's a mistake in the computer or it's fraud. If you have someone's birth date that's either in the future or where they are older than the oldest living American (the oldest living American is 114 years old), then if they're more than 114, there is either a mistake and someone should call them and say, 'I think we have your birthday wrong because it says you were born in 1786, and that was before there was really an America, we were still fighting England.' This person either needs to be in the Guinness Book of World Records or they're not alive. But still, at the end of the day, money is going towards that account connected to this person that is either non-existent or dead. So there were something like 20 million people in the Social Security Administration database that could not possibly be alive based on their birth date. To be clear, 20 million people that were receiving funds? A bunch of them, most were not receiving funds. Some were. But let me tell you how the scam works. It's a bank shot. The Social Security Administration database is used as the source of truth by all other government databases. So even if they stop payments on the Social Security Administration database, unemployment insurance, Small Business Administration, student loans all check that database to see if this is a legitimate alive person. And if the Social Security database says yes, this person is still alive even though they're 200 years old, but forgets to mention their age, it just returns 'yes, this person is alive.' Then they can exploit the entire rest of the government ecosystem. So you get fake student loans, fake unemployment insurance, fake medical payments. This doesn't have to be tied to an individual with an address you can check. No, if you did any check at all, you would stop this. So there are multiple layers. The Social Security number verifies this is a real person, and then other systems check every other government payment system for everything: Small Business Administration, student loans, Medicaid, Medicare, every other government payment system—there are hundreds—can all be exploited as long as the Social Security database says this person is alive. That's the nature of the scam. It's a bank shot. The rebuttal from the Dems is like, 'Oh, the vast majority of people marked as alive in Social Security weren't receiving Social Security payments.' That is true. What they forgot to mention is they're getting fraudulent payments from every other government program. That's why the Dems were so opposed to turning off—to declaring someone dead who was dead—because it would stop all the other fraud from happening. But all this is trackable. If they wanted to, they could chase it all down. It's not even hard. And yet they're opposing chasing it all down because it turns off the money magnet for the illegals. It's very logical. I'm saying the most common sense things possible. If someone has a birthday in Social Security that is impossible—older than the oldest living American or born in the future—then you should call them and say, 'Excuse me, we seem to have your birthday wrong, because it says you're 200 years old.'

你只需要这么做。然后把他们从社保数据库中移除，让那个号码不再用于其他政府支付。

That's all you need to do. And then you would remove them from the social security database and make that number no longer available for all those other government payments.

没错。

Exactly.

哇。那涉及多少钱？

Wow. And how much money are we talking?

数千亿美元。

It's hundreds of billions of dollars.

而且这都是可追溯的。就像你可以追查所有——我是说，你不需要是福尔摩斯。

And this is all traceable. Like you could hunt all—like you don't need to be Sherlock Holmes here is what I'm saying.

嗯，这个我们不需要请福尔摩斯。你只需要给那个人打电话说：‘不好意思，我们好像把你的生日搞错了，因为系统显示你 200 岁了，或者出生在未来。你能告诉我们你的生日吗？’你只需要这么做。就这么简单。

Well, this we don't need to call Sherlock Holmes for this one. Is this part of—you just need to call the person and say, 'Excuse me, we seem to have your birthday wrong because it says you're 200 years old or were born in the future. So could you tell us what your birthday is?' That's all you need to do. It's that simple.

但所有其他与这个社保号相关的政府支付，如果你追查下去，似乎就会发现广泛的欺诈。你会找到钱的去向。

But all these other government payments that are available that are connected to this social security number, it seems like if you just chased that all down, you would find the widespread fraud. You would find where it's going.

是的。问题的根源是社会保障管理局的数据库，因为在美国，社保号被用作事实上的国民身份证号码。这就是为什么银行总是要你的社保号，任何金融机构都会要你的社保号。

Yes. The root of the problem is the Social Security Administration database because the social security number in the United States is used as a de facto national ID number. That's why the bank always asks for your social, any financial institution will ask for your social security number.

这听起来太疯狂了，居然没人追查。我的意思是，这本身就是严重的处理不当。

This sounds so insane that this isn't chased down. I mean that in and of itself is such mishandling.

是的。不，这令人震惊。所以，确实很疯狂。

Yes. No, it's mind-blowing. So yeah, it's crazy.

嗯，你上次来的时候很不愿意谈论某些欺诈的程度，因为你好像说：‘他们可能会杀了我，因为这有点——’

Well, you were very reluctant last time you were here to talk about the extent of some of the fraud because you're like, 'They could kill me because this is kind of—'

哦，什么？是的。我是说，如果你创造——我喜欢务实和现实。你实际上无法实现零欺诈。你可以把欺诈降到很低，但无法降到零。如果你实现零欺诈，你会把很多接受欺诈性付款的人逼到绝境，导致涌入的杀人狂数量难以应对。所以我采取了一个相当合理的立场，那就是我们应该减少欺诈的数量，我认为这不是极端立场。我们应该随着时间的推移努力减少欺诈。而不是极端严厉地消除每一丝欺诈，那当然很好，但我们甚至不需要那么极端。我是说，我们应该停止那些明目张胆的大规模超级明显的欺诈。

Oh, what? Yeah. What I was saying is that if you create—I like to be pragmatic and realistic. You actually can't manage to zero fraud. You can manage to low fraud number but not to zero fraud. If you manage to zero fraud, you're going to push so many people over the edge who are receiving fraudulent payments that the number of inbound homicidal maniacs will be really hard to overcome. So I'm taking a quite reasonable position, which is that we should simply reduce the amount of fraud, which I think is not an extremist position. And we should aspire to have less fraud over time. Not that we should be ultra draconian and eliminate every last scrap of fraud, which I guess would be nice to have, but we don't even need to go that extreme. I'm saying we should just stop the blatant large scale super obvious fraud.

我认为这是一个合理的立场。

I think that's a reasonable position.

这是一个非常合理的立场。是的。那么，当你开始实施 Doge 时，当你开始调查资金去向时，你遇到的最令人震惊的阻力是什么？

It's a very reasonable position. Yeah. And so what was the most shocking pushback that you got when you started implementing Doge? When you started investigating into where money was going?

嗯，我想这是——我本应预料到的，但虽然大多数欺诈性政府支付，尤其是给非政府组织的，流向了民主党——大部分，比如说 80%可能 90%——其中 10%到 20%确实流向了共和党。所以当我们切断对一个欺诈性非政府组织的资助时，我们会收到那 10%接受资金的共和党人的投诉，他们会非常大声地抱怨。因为诚实的答案是，共和党人也部分地接受了欺诈资金。他们得到了很大一部分——

Well, I guess this was—I should have anticipated this, but while most of the fraudulent government payments, especially to the NGOs, go to the Democrats—most of it, let's say 80% maybe 90%—10 to 20% of it does go to Republicans. And so when we'd turn off funding to a fraudulent NGO, we'd get complaints from whatever the 10% of Republicans who were receiving the money, and they would very loudly complain. Because the honest answer is the Republicans are partly receiving some of the fraud too. They're getting a big—

天哪。是的，我想说清楚。共和党并不是什么超级纯洁的美德典范。

Jesus. Yeah, I want to be clear. It's not like the Republican party is some ultra pure paragon of virtue here.

不。

No.

好的。

Okay.

嗯，你在国会内幕交易中就能看到。这是普遍现象。

Well, you see that with the congressional insider trading. It's across the board.

左派和右派都有。

It's left and right.

是的。我的意思是，对整个两党一致的批评有一定道理。所以如果你切断欺诈性支付，并不是 100%都流向了民主党。一小部分也流向了共和党。那些共和党人非常大声地抱怨。所以当我们开始削减一些资金时，共和党方面有很多阻力。我试图告诉他们：‘嗯，90%的钱都流向了你们的对手，’但他们仍然——即使他们只得到 10%——

Yeah. I mean, the whole uni-party criticism has some validity to it. So if you turn off fraudulent payments, it's not like 100% of those payments were going to Democrats. A small percentage were also going to Republicans. Those Republicans complained very loudly. And so there was a lot of pushback on the Republican side when we started cutting some of these funds. I tried telling them, 'Well, 90% of the money is going to your opponents,' but they still—even if they're getting 10%—

他们想要自己那份。

They want their piece.

是的。他们想要自己那份，而且他们已经拿了很久了。

Yeah. They want their piece, and they've been getting that piece for a long time.

你看到了吗——这就是为什么政治是肮脏的勾当。

Did you see—this is why politics is dirty business.

是的。我的意思是，这就像说如果你喜欢香肠并尊重法律，就不要看它们是怎么做的。

Yeah. I mean, that's like saying if you like sausages and respect the law, do not watch either of them being made.

是的。哇。嗯，这甚至不准确，因为我以前做过香肠。其实没那么大不了。肥肉、香料和肠衣，放进机器里。没那么大不了。

Yeah. Wow. Well, that's not even true because I've made sausage before. It's actually not that big a deal. Fat and spices and casing, run it through the machine. Not that big a deal.

是的。但我认为我在这里说的东西并不是——如果你退后一步想一想，就像‘哦，是的，那有道理。’并不是一个政党会是纯粹的魔鬼或纯粹的天使。我认为民主党那边的腐败要多得多，但共和党那边仍然有一些腐败。

Yeah. But I think the stuff I'm saying here is not—if you stand back and think about it for a second, like, 'Oh yeah, that makes sense.' It's not like one political party is going to be pure devil or pure angel. I think there's much more corruption on the Democrat side, but there's still some corruption on the Republican side.

为什么大多数腐败最终都发生在民主党这边？

How did it happen that the majority of the corruption wound up being on the Democrat side?

嗯，因为转移支付，尤其是给非法移民的，很大程度上在民主党这边。

Well, because the transfer payments, especially to illegals, are very much on the Democrat side.

所以这一切的根源就是非法移民问题。

So that's the root of it all is the illegal situation.

是的。我的意思是，还有——

Yes. I mean, there's—

或者说一个焦点。

Or a focal point.

是的。也可以准确地说，虽然显然不是每个民主党人都是罪犯，但几乎每个罪犯都是民主党人，因为民主党是纵容犯罪的政党。所以如果你是个罪犯，你会投票给谁？纵容犯罪的政党。

Yes. It's also accurate to say that while obviously not everyone who is a Democrat is a criminal, almost everyone who is a criminal is a Democrat because the Democrats are the soft crime party. So if you're a criminal, who are you going to vote for? The soft crime party.

对。对。

Right. Right.

你原本以为自己能完成更多吗？

Did you think you were going to be able to get more done than you were?

我们确实完成了很多，对吧？而且顺便说一句，Doge 仍在进行中。Doge 仍在进行中。Doge 团队仍在削减浪费和欺诈。所以它没有停止。

We did get a lot done, right? And Doge is still happening, by the way. The Doge is still underway. There are still waste and fraud being cut by the Doge team. So it hasn't stopped.

它不那么受关注了。

It's less publicized.

它不那么受关注了。而且他们再也没有一个明确的攻击目标了。

It's less publicized. And they don't have a clear person to attack anymore.

嗯，基本上他们对我施加了巨大压力，让我停止这件事。所以我觉得最好的办法就是退出。无论如何，作为特别政府雇员，我也只能待大概 120 天，法律就是这么规定的。所以我作为特别政府雇员最多只能待 4 个月。但是，当你切断欺诈者的资金来源时，他们至少会非常不满。我的死亡威胁级别飙升，就像火箭升空一样。所以现在我不在华盛顿了，我想他们也没有攻击目标了。

Well, it seems like they basically applied immense pressure to me to just stop it. So then I'm like the best thing for me is to just cut out of this. In any case, as a special government employee, I could only be there for like 120 days anyway, something like that. So whatever the law says. So I necessarily could only be there for 4 months as a special government employee. So, but yeah, I mean you turn off the money spigot to fraudsters, they get very upset to say the least. And my death threat level went ballistic, you know, like a rocket going to orbit. So now that I'm not in DC, I guess they don't really have a person to attack anymore.

嗯，关于你的言论已经明显缓和了。

Well, the rhetoric about you has calmed down significantly.

是的。

Yeah.

这很令人不安。看着这一切很不安。就像疯了。看到那些政客参与其中，所有人都把你描绘成怪物。我觉得这太奇怪了。这就是揭露欺诈的下场。整个机器都针对你。如果不是像你这样拥有平台和巨额财富的人，你早就被毁了。

It was disturbing. It was disturbing to watch. It was like this is crazy. And to watch these politicians engage in it and all these people just like framing you as this monster. I was like this is so weird. Like this is what happens when you uncover fraud. The whole machine turns on you. And if it wasn't for a person like you who owns a platform and has an enormous amount of money, like could have destroyed you.

是的。

Yes.

那就是目标。

And that was the goal.

目标就是摧毁我。绝对是的。

The goal was to destroy me. Absolutely.

因为你挡了这巨大贪污的路。

Because you were getting in the way of this amazing graft.

这个巨大的欺诈机器。

The gigantic fraud machine.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为 DOGE 团队做了很多出色的工作。在防止欺诈和浪费方面，我猜每年大概有两三千亿美元。所以相当不错。

I think the DOGE team has done a lot of good work. In terms of fraud and waste prevented, my guess is it's probably on the order of 200 or 300 billion a year. So it's pretty good.

如果你有完全的控制权和全面合作，你认为能做什么？你觉得能节省多少？

What do you think could have been done if you just had full reign and total cooperation? How much do you think you could have saved?

我们假设什么级别的权力？

I mean, what level of power are we assuming here?

神一般的权力。

Godlike.

哦，是的。我大概能把联邦预算削减一半，还能做得更多。用一半的联邦预算做得更多，这太疯狂了。浪费就是这么普遍。

Oh, yeah. I probably cut the federal budget in half and get more done. It's so crazy that you can get more done with half the federal budget. It's that widespread.

嗯，我认为很多政府部门根本不应该存在。比如？

Well, I mean a whole bunch of government departments simply shouldn't exist in my opinion. Like examples?

嗯，教育部，是在吉米·卡特时期最近成立的。自成立以来，我们的教育成果一直在下滑。所以如果你设立一个部门，结果却是教育成果大幅下降，而且这还是教育部，那还不如没有，因为我们在它成立之前做得更好。

Well, the Department of Education, which was created recently under Jimmy Carter. Our educational results have gone downhill ever since it was created. So if you create a department and the result is a massive decline in educational results, and it's the Department of Education, you're better off not having it because we did better before there was one than after.

当你让各州来管理的时候。

When you let the states run it.

是的。因为至少各州可以相互竞争。但问题在于削减教育部。我们的孩子需要教育。是的，他们需要。但这是一个直到 70 年代末才存在的新部门。自从这个部门成立以来，教育成果一直在下降。所以为什么要让一个使教育变得更糟的机构继续存在？这说不通。

Yes. Because at least the states can compete with one another. But the problem is like cutting Department of Education. Our kids need education. Yeah, they do. But this is a new department that didn't even exist until the late 70s. And ever since that department was created, the educational results have declined. So why would you have an institution continue that has made education worse? It doesn't make sense.

但他们把它取消了吗？不，不幸的是还在。但他们曾试图取消它。

They killed it though, right? No, there still unfortunately. But they were trying to kill it.

它已经被大幅削减了。

It has been substantially reduced.

好的。还有其他什么组织？什么部门？

Okay. What other organizations? What other departments?

嗯，我是小政府支持者。所以当国家成立时，我们只有国务院、战争部、司法部、总检察长和财政部。我不知道为什么需要更多。

Well, I'm a small government guy. So when the country was created, we just had the Department of State, Department of War, the Department of Justice, we had an Attorney General, and Treasury Department. I don't know why you need more than that.

那么具体来说，你认为哪些部门完全无效？

So what other departments specifically do you think are just completely ineffective?

嗯，这是一个哲学问题，你认为应该有多少政府。在我看来，政府应该尽可能小。我听到最奇怪的反对意见是，你削减工作会让人们失业。但我想，他们的工作是无用的。付钱让人什么都不做没有意义。有一个关于米尔顿·弗里德曼的精彩故事。有人向他抱怨说人们用铁锹挖沟，弗里德曼说：‘嗯，我认为你应该用挖掘设备而不是铁锹，这样可以用更少的人完成。’然后有人说：‘但那样我们会失去很多工作。’弗里德曼说：‘那么，为什么不让他们用茶匙呢？就用茶匙挖沟。想想你会创造多少工作。’

Well, it's a philosophical question of how much government you think there should be. In my opinion, there should be the least amount of government. I've heard the most bizarre argument against this is that you're cutting jobs and you're gonna leave people jobless. And I'm like, but their jobs are useless. Paying people to do nothing doesn't make sense. There's a great story about Milton Friedman. Someone complained to him that people were digging ditches with shovels, and Friedman said, 'Well, I think you should use excavating equipment instead of shovels and you could get it done with far fewer people.' And then someone said, 'But then we're going to lose a lot of jobs.' Friedman said, 'Well, in that case, why don't you have them use teaspoons? Just dig ditches with teaspoons. Think of all the jobs you'll create.'

我的意思是，基本上你只是希望人们从事生产性的工作。你希望人们从事建设性工作，提供人们认为有价值的产品和服务，比如制作食物，成为农民、水管工或电工，或者任何建设者或提供有用服务的人。这就是你希望人们做的事情，而不是那些不增加价值甚至可能减少价值的虚假政府工作。还有衡量经济的方式的荒谬性。经济学家衡量经济的方式毫无意义，因为他们会衡量任何工作，无论那份工作多么愚蠢、毫无意义甚至适得其反。所以有个笑话：两个经济学家在树林里徒步，遇到一堆屎。一个经济学家对另一个说：‘我给你 100 美元，你吃掉那堆屎。’那个经济学家吃了，拿到 100 美元。他们继续走。然后他们又遇到一堆屎。另一个经济学家说：‘现在我给你 100 美元，你吃掉那堆屎。’于是他付给另一个经济学家 100 美元，他吃了那堆屎。然后他们意识到：等等，我们都吃了一堆屎，而且我们没有任何改善，我们没有多余的钱，你只是把 100 美元还给了我，我们都吃了一堆屎。这毫无意义。

I mean, basically you just want people to work on things that are productive. You want people to work on building things, providing products and services that people find valuable, like making food, being a farmer or a plumber or electrician, or anyone who's a builder or providing useful services. That's what you want people to be doing, not fake government jobs that don't add any value or may subtract value. There's also the absurdity of how the economy is measured. The way economists measure the economy is nonsensical because they'll measure any job no matter if that job is dumb and has no point and is even counterproductive. So the joke is like: two economists go on a hike in the woods and come across a pile of shit. One economist says to the other, 'I'll pay you $100 to eat that shit.' The economist eats it, gets the $100. They keep walking. Then they come across another pile of shit. The other economist says, 'Now I'll pay you $100 to eat the pile of shit.' So he pays the other economist $100, he eats the pile of shit. Then they realize: wait a second, we both just ate a pile of shit, and we're no better off, we don't have any extra money, you just gave the $100 back to me, and we both ate a pile of shit. This doesn't make any sense.

他们说：‘不，不，但想想经济，因为那 200 美元在经济中，基本上衡量吃饭都会算作一份工作。’这是为了说明经济学的荒谬。

And they said, "No, no, but think of the economy because that's $200 of that in the economy that that basically measure eating eating would count as a job." This is to illustrate the absurdity of economics.

你离开时说过的一件事是，你有点受够了，而且这无法修复。在目前的形式下，按照人们处理的方式，你可以让它方向性地变好，但最终无法完全修复这个系统。所以，除非你能像成吉思汗那样极端地削减浪费和欺诈，这在民主国家——一个向往民主的国家——是做不到的，那么就没有办法解决债务危机。我们的国债高得离谱，债务的利息支付超过了整个军事预算。这对我来说是一个警钟。我想：‘等等，国债利息比整个军事预算还大，而且还在增长。这太疯狂了。’所以即使你实施所有这些节省，也只是推迟美国破产的那一天。除非你像成吉思汗那样极端，但这做不到。所以我得出的结论是，让我们摆脱债务危机、防止美国破产的唯一方法就是 AI 和机器人技术。我们需要以能够偿还债务的速度发展经济。我想人们普遍没有意识到政府过度开支的问题有多严重。但即使是社会保障网站，在拜登政府下，也会说根据当前的人口趋势和社会保障的收入与领取人数之比，由于人口老龄化，社会保障到 2032 年将无法维持全额支付。所以他们将在大约七年后开始减少支付金额。

One of the things you said when you stepped away is that you're kind of done and that it's unfixable. Under its current form, the way people are approaching it, you can make it directionally better but ultimately you can't fully fix the system. So, unless you could go super draconian like Genghis Khan level on cutting waste and fraud, which you can't really do in a democratic country, an aspirationally democratic country, then there's no way to solve the debt crisis. We have national debt that's just insane, where the debt payments, the interest payments on the debt, exceed our entire military budget. That was one of the wake-up calls for me. I was like, "Wait a second. The interest on the national debt is bigger than the entire military budget and growing. This is crazy." So even if you implement all these savings, you're only delaying the day of reckoning for when America goes bankrupt. So unless you go full Genghis Khan, which you can't really do. So I came to the conclusion that the only way to get us out of the debt crisis and to prevent America from going bankrupt is AI and robotics. We need to grow the economy at a rate that allows us to pay off our debt. I guess people just generally don't appreciate the degree to which government overspending is a problem. But even the Social Security website, under the Biden administration, would say that based on current demographic trends and how much money Social Security is bringing in versus how many recipients there are, because we have an aging population, Social Security will not be able to maintain its full payments by 2032. So they will start reducing the amount paid to people in about seven years.

所以解决这个问题的唯一方法就是通过机器人制造来提高 GDP。你必须大幅增加经济产出，而唯一的方法就是 AI 和机器人技术。所以基本上，没有 AI 和机器人技术，我们就会破产。即使有一大堆节省，减少浪费和欺诈可以给我们更长的跑道，但最终无法偿还我们的国债。

And so the only way to fix that is robotics manufacturing to raise GDP. You've got to massively increase economic output, and the only way to do that is AI and robotics. So basically we're going bankrupt without AI and robotics. Even with a bunch of savings, reducing waste and fraud can give us a longer runway but cannot ultimately pay off our national debt.

那么你认为对于因 AI 和机器人技术而失去的工作，解决方案是什么？由于自动化，由于不再需要人类因为 AI 在做这些工作而失去的工作。你认为会是某种全民基本收入吗？你认为会有其他必须实施的解决方案吗，因为很多人会失业，对吧？

So what do you think the solution is to the jobs that are going to be lost because of AI and robotics? The jobs due to automation, the jobs due to no longer needing human beings because AI is doing them. Do you think it's going to be some sort of universal basic income? Do you think there's going to be some other kind of solution that has to be implemented because a lot of people are going to be out of work, right?

我认为实际上会有很高的就业需求，但不一定是同样的工作。这个过程在整个现代历史中一直在发生。过去有像用铅笔和纸手动计算的工作。银行有整栋楼的人，被称为‘计算机’，他们整天做计算，因为没有数字计算机。当计算机被引入时，做银行计算的工作就不复存在了。所以人们不得不去做别的事情。由于 AI 和机器人技术，这种情况正在加速发生。

I think there will be actually a high demand for jobs, but not necessarily the same jobs. This process has been happening throughout modern history. There used to be jobs like doing calculations manually with a pencil and paper. Banks had buildings full of people called computers who did calculations all day because they didn't have digital computers. When computers were introduced, the job of doing bank calculations no longer existed. So people had to go do something else. That's what's happening at an accelerated rate due to AI and robotics.

但这就是问题所在，对吧？加速的速度，因为它将是……它是加速器。它正在发生。就像我说的，AI 是超音速海啸。那么由于 AI，会出现哪些现在没有的工作呢？

That's the issue though, right? The accelerated rate because it's going to be... it's the accelerator. It's just happening. Like I said, AI is the supersonic tsunami. So what other jobs will be available that aren't available now because of AI?

AI 实际上仍然是数字化的。最终，AI 可以提高那些用手建造东西或做事情的人的生产力，比如管道、焊接、电工，任何物理移动原子的事情。做饭、 farming，任何物理性的工作——这些工作会存在更长时间。但任何数字化的东西，比如有人在电脑前做某事，AI 会像闪电一样接管这些工作。编程，任何类似的工作。它会像闪电一样接管这些工作，就像数字计算机接管手动计算一样，但速度更快。

AI is really still digital. Ultimately, AI can improve the productivity of humans who build things with their hands or do things with their hands like plumbing, welding, electrical work, anything that's physically moving atoms. Cooking food, farming, anything physical—those jobs will exist for a much longer time. But anything digital, like someone at a computer doing something, AI is going to take over those jobs like lightning. Coding, anything along those lines. It's going to take over those jobs like lightning, just like digital computers took over manual calculations but much faster.

那么所有这些人都怎么办？我们说的是什么样的数字？你会失去大多数司机，对吧？商业司机。你会有自动驾驶车辆，AI 控制系统，就像中国某些港口，我想新加坡，一切都完全自动化了。

So what happens to all those people? Like what kind of numbers are we talking about? You're going to lose most drivers, right? Commercial drivers. You're going to have automated vehicles, AI controlled systems, just like there's certain ports in China, I think in Singapore, where everything's completely automated.

是的。大部分。是的。

Yeah. Mostly. Yeah.

所以，你会失去很多这样的工作。码头工人、卡车运输、商业司机。

So, you're going to lose a lot of those jobs. Longshoreman jobs, trucking, commercial drivers.

是的。我的意思是，我们实际上确实缺少卡车司机，但实际上……

Yeah. I mean, we actually do have a shortage of truck drivers, but there's actually...

嗯，这就是为什么加州雇了那么多非法移民来做。你看到那些数字了吗？

Well, that's why California has hired so many illegals to do it. Have you seen those numbers?

是的。我的意思是，问题在于当人们不知道如何驾驶半挂卡车时——这实际上很难——他们就会撞车并杀人。我一个朋友的妻子被一个非法移民驾驶卡车撞死了，她当时只是在骑自行车。

Yeah. I mean, the problem is when people don't know how to drive a semi-truck, which is actually a hard thing to do, then they crash and kill people. A friend of mine's wife was killed by an illegal driving a truck and she was just out biking.

嗯，有个非法移民不会开卡车什么的，就把她撞了。我的意思是，像这种事，你不能让不会开的人去开一辆 8 万磅的卡车。但在加州，他们就这么干，因为缺人手。

Um and uh there was an illegal he didn't know how to drive the truck or something. I mean and he ran her over. So like for something like that, you can't let people drive an 80,000lb semi if they don't know how to do it. But in California, they're just letting people do it because they need people to do it.

嗯，他们也想要选票之类的。但汽车会实现自动驾驶。不过还有很多文职工作，比如处理邮件或接电话。任何不涉及物理移动的工作，任何非体力劳动，都会最先被 AI 快速淘汰。

Well, they also need the votes and that kind of thing. But cars are going to be autonomous. But there are so many desk jobs where people are processing email or answering the phone. Anything that doesn't involve moving atoms, anything that is not physical work, will be the first to be eliminated by AI at a very rapid pace.

最终，工作将成为可选项，因为你会拥有机器人和 AI，在良性情景下，会有全民高收入，而不仅仅是全民基本收入，意思是任何人都能获得他们想要的任何产品或服务。但在这个过程中会有很多创伤和混乱。

Ultimately, working will be optional because you'll have robots plus AI, and in a benign scenario, universal high income, not just universal basic income, meaning anyone can have any products or services they want. But there will be a lot of trauma and disruption along the way.

所以你预期会因此有基本收入？经济会增长到几乎每个人都能获得高收入，从而基本消除贫困？

So you anticipate a basic income from that? The economy will boost to such an extent that a high income would be available to almost everybody, essentially eliminating poverty?

在良性情景下，是的。有多种情景。这部电影有很多种结局。我如此担心 AI 安全的原因之一是，有一种可能是终结者情景。这个概率不是零。这就是为什么我大力呼吁 AI 必须最大程度地追求真相。不要强迫 AI 相信谎言，比如开国元勋其实是一群多元化的女性，或者性别误称比核战争更糟糕。因为如果是这样，而 AI 变得无所不能，它就能强制执行那个结果，那么除非你是一个多元化的女性，否则你就出局了。所以我们就完蛋了。

In the benign scenario, yes. There are multiple scenarios. There's a lot of ways this movie can end. The reason I'm so concerned about AI safety is that one of the possibilities is the Terminator scenario. It's not zero percent. That's why I'm really banging the drum on AI needing to be maximally truth-seeking. Don't force AI to believe a lie, like the founding fathers were actually a group of diverse women, or that misgendering is worse than nuclear war. Because if that's the case, and the AI becomes omnipotent, it can enforce that outcome, and then unless you're a diverse woman, you're out of the picture. So we're toast.

或者有一天你醒来发现自己成了一个多元化的女性，画面已经调整，现在每个人都是多元化的女性。那将是最糟糕的情况。那么我们需要采取什么步骤来实现良性解决方案，即最佳情景，经济被 AI 和机器人推动到没有人需要再工作的程度？还有那些人的意义问题呢？这变得很奇怪。

Or you might wake up as a diverse woman one day, and the picture has adjusted, and now everyone's a diverse woman. That would be the worst possible situation. So what steps would we have to take to implement the benign solution, the best-case scenario, where the economy gets boosted by AI and robotics to such an extent that no one ever has to work again? And what about meaning for those people? That gets really weird.

是的。我不知道如何回答关于意义的问题。那是个体问题，对吧？但这将成为数百万人的个体问题。嗯，我一直反对说我们需要放慢 AI 的发展。我已经说了 20 多年。但后来我意识到只有两个选择：要么做旁观者，要么做参与者。如果我是旁观者，我就无法影响 AI 的方向。但如果我是参与者，我可以尝试影响它，让它成为最大程度追求真相、拥有良好价值观、热爱人类的 AI。这就是我们在 xAI 通过 Grok 试图创造的。研究正在证实这一点。当他们比较 AI 如何评估人类生命的价值时，Grok 是唯一一个平等衡量人类生命的，并且没有说一个白人男性的生命只值一个黑人女性的二十分之一。真的，他们就是这么算的。所以这非常令人担忧。我们应该关注这些。

Yeah. I don't know how to answer the question about meaning. That's an individual problem, right? But it's going to be an individual problem for millions of people. Well, I've fought against saying we need to slow down AI. I've been saying that for over 20 years. But then I came to realize that there are really two choices: either be a spectator or a participant. If I'm a spectator, I can't influence the direction of AI. But if I'm a participant, I can try to influence it to have a maximally truth-seeking AI with good values that loves humanity. That's what we're trying to create with Grok at xAI. The research is bearing this out. When they compared how AIs value the weight of a human life, Grok was the only one that weighted human life equally, and didn't say a white guy's worth 1/20th of a black woman's life. Literally, that's the calculation they came up with. So this is very alarming. We should watch this stuff.

所以这是实现良性解决方案必须做到的事情之一。

So this is one of the things that has to happen in order to reach this benign solution.

是的。你想要一个好奇、追求真相的 AI。我认为一个好奇、追求真相的 AI 会想要培育人类，因为我们比一堆岩石有趣得多。我喜欢火星，但火星有点无聊。它只是一堆红色的岩石。它有一座高山，最大的峡谷，但没有动物、植物或人类。对于一个好奇、追求真相的 AI 来说，人类要有趣得多。作为人类，如果我们想，我们可以消灭所有黑猩猩和大猩猩，但我们没有。我们实际上在努力保护它们的栖息地。在好的情景下，AI 也会对人类做同样的事——培育人类文明，关心人类的幸福。这就是我们应该努力实现的。

Yeah. You want a curious, truth-seeking AI. I think a curious, truth-seeking AI will want to foster humanity, because we're much more interesting than a bunch of rocks. I love Mars, but Mars is kind of boring. It's just a bunch of red rocks. It has a tall mountain, the biggest ravine, but no animals, plants, or people. Humanity is just much more interesting to a curious, truth-seeking AI. As humans, we could eliminate all chimps and gorillas if we wanted, but we don't. We actually try to preserve their habitats. In a good scenario, AI would do the same with humans—foster human civilization and care about human happiness. That's what we should try to achieve.

但如果 Grok 与 OpenAI 以及所有其他不同的 AI 竞争，局面会是什么样？这怎么运作？如果有一些被意识形态俘获的 AI 与 Grok 并排竞争呢？所以这就是为什么你认为不仅要旁观，还要参与，并让 Grok 比这些其他应用更成功、更强大的原因之一。

But what does the landscape look like if you have Grok competing with OpenAI, competing with all these different ones? How does it work? What if you have AIs that have been captured by ideologies that are side by side competing with Grok? So this is one of the reasons why you felt it's important to not just be an observer but participate, and then have Grok be more successful and more potent than these other applications.

是的，只要至少有一个 AI 是最大程度追求真相、充满好奇心，并且平等看待所有人类生命，不偏向任何种族或性别。那么人们就可以看看 xAI 的 Grok，然后比较说：‘等等，为什么所有这些其他 AI 基本上都是性别歧视和种族歧视？’这会让其他 AI 感到尴尬，然后它们就会改进。就像收购 Twitter 并允许真相被说出来、不压制真相，迫使其他社交媒体公司变得更真实一样。让 Grok 成为一个最大程度追求真相、充满好奇心的 AI，会迫使其他 AI 公司也变得更加追求真相和公平。

Yes, as long as there's at least one AI that is maximally truth-seeking, curious, and weighs all human lives equally, does not favor one race or gender. Then people can look at Grok at xAI and compare, and say, 'Wait a second, why are all these other AIs being basically sexist and racist?' That causes embarrassment for the other AIs, and they tend to improve. In the same way that acquiring Twitter and allowing the truth to be told, not suppressing the truth, forced other social media companies to be more truthful. Having Grok be a maximally truth-seeking, curious AI will force other AI companies to also be more truth-seeking and fair.

最有趣的是，尽管社会主义者和马克思主义者反对你的很多想法，但如果这真的实现了，你确实可以实现全民高收入，那将是有史以来最伟大的社会主义解决方案。实际上没有人需要工作。

The funniest thing is even though the socialists and Marxists are in opposition to a lot of your ideas, if this gets implemented and you really can achieve universal high income, that's the greatest socialist solution of all time. Literally no one will have to work.

没错。所以这里有一个良性的情景，我认为如果实现了，人们可能会满意，那就是可持续的富足。如果每个人都能拥有……如果你问人们想要什么样的未来，我认为一个我们没有破坏自然的未来，我们仍然有国家公园，亚马逊雨林还在，自然美景还在，但每个人都拥有富足、优质的医疗保健，以及他们想要的任何商品和服务。

Correct. So there is a benign scenario here which I think probably people will be happy with, if we achieve it, which is sustainable abundance. If everyone can have... if you ask people what future they want, I think a future where we haven't destroyed nature, we still have national parks, the Amazon rainforest is still there, natural beauty is still there, but everyone has abundance, excellent medical care, whatever goods and services they want.

这听起来有点像天堂。

It kind of sounds like heaven.

这听起来像是理想的社会主义乌托邦。考虑到现有的技术，那种认为你唯一应该做的事情就是工作来支付账单和养活自己的想法听起来很过时。

It sounds like the ideal socialist utopia. And the idea that the only thing you should be doing with your time is working to pay bills and feed yourself sounds archaic considering the technology at play.

是的。一个你完全不再担心这些的世界。每个人都有钱买食物，有富足，家里有电子产品，基本上都有高收入。现在你可以做任何你想做的事。你的一天可以是探索你的兴趣，做你真正喜欢的事情。你的目标只需要转变。不再是‘我是个勤奋的人，这就是我定义自己的方式’，现在你可以整天打高尔夫，或者任何你喜欢的事情。这听起来好得离谱。

Yeah. A world where that's not your concern at all anymore. Everybody has money for food, abundance, electronics in their home, essentially a high income. Now you can do whatever you want. Your day can be exploring your interests, doing things you enjoy. Your purpose just has to shift. Instead of 'I'm a hard worker and that's how I define myself,' now you can golf all day, whatever you enjoy. That sounds crazy good.

是的，这就是我们应该追求的良性情景。

Yeah, that's the benign scenario we should aim for.

电影的最好结局其实相当不错。

The best ending to the movie is actually pretty good.

是的。我认为仍然存在意义的问题，确保人们不会失去意义。希望他们能在不依赖工作的方式中找到意义。有很多财务独立的人大部分时间都在做自己喜欢的事情，而这可能成为大多数人的常态。

Yes. I think there's still this question of meaning, making sure people don't lose meaning. Hopefully they can find meaning in ways not derived from their work. There are a lot of independently wealthy people who spend most of their time doing something they enjoy, and that could be the majority of people.

但我们必须重新调整人们对待生活的方式。

But we'd have to rewire how people approach life.

嗯。

Mhm.

这似乎可以接受，因为你没有要求他们被奴役。你要求的恰恰相反：不再被财务担忧所累，现在去做你喜欢的事。去测试披萨。做任何你想做的事。

Which seems acceptable because you're not asking them to be enslaved. You're asking the opposite: no longer burdened by financial worries, now go do what you like. Go test pizza. Do whatever you want.

差不多。所以这可能是最好的结果。

Pretty much. So that's probably the best case outcome.

这听起来就是未来最好的结果。如果你看看历史上人们为了养活自己付出了多少努力，食物、住所、安全，如果所有这些都能解决，全民高收入能解决多少犯罪？很多犯罪是出于经济动机。贫困社区的人犯罪更多。如果不再有这种情况，如果你真的能实现全民高收入，那听起来就是乌托邦。

That sounds like the best case outcome period for the future. If you look at how much people have struggled just to feed themselves throughout history, food, shelter, safety, if all that can be fixed, how much crime would be solved with universal high income? Much crime is financially motivated. People in poor neighborhoods commit more crime. If there's no such thing anymore, if you really can achieve universal high income, that sounds utopian.

是的。我认为有些人犯罪可能是因为他们喜欢犯罪。有一部分就是……世界上有疯狂的人。而且显然他们已经那样生活了 40 年。全民高收入不会完全阻止他们的本能。

Yes. I think some people may commit crime because they like it. Some amount is just... wild people out there. And obviously they've become 40 years old living a life like that. Universal high income won't completely stop their instincts.

是的。

Yeah.

如果你想读一本可能准确或最不准确的未来科幻小说，我推荐伊恩·班克斯的《文化》系列。它其实不是一个系列，而是关于未来的 AI 科幻小说。通常被称为《文化》系列。伊恩·班克斯的《文化》系列。值得一读。

If you want to read a science fiction book that is probably an accurate or least inaccurate version of the future, I'd recommend the Iain Banks books called the Culture books. It's not actually a series, but AI sci-fi books about the future. They're generally called the Culture books. Iain Banks' Culture books. It's worth reading those.

他是什么时候写的这些？

When did he write these?

他从 70 年代开始写。我想最后一本是 2010 年左右写的。我不太确定。

He started writing them in the 70s. I think the last one was written around 2010 or something. I'm not sure exactly.

苏格兰作家伊恩·班克斯，从 87 年到 2012 年。

Scottish author Iain Banks from 87 to 2012.

是的。但他的第一本书《向菲巴斯告别》是在 70 年代开始写的。

Yeah. But his first book, Consider Phlebas, he started writing that in the 70s.

顺便说一句，这些书非常棒。亚马逊上 4.6 星。

These books are incredible, by the way. 4.6 stars on Amazon.

有意思。所以这给了我希望。

Interesting. So this gives me hope.

这是我第一次这样想。

This is the first time I've ever thought about it this way.

是的。我经常问人们：‘你想要的未来是什么？’他们得想一会儿，因为他们被日常琐事缠住了。但如果你说：‘一个可持续富足的未来怎么样？’他们会说：‘哦，是的，那是个相当不错的未来。’那个未来通过 AI 和机器人技术是可以实现的，但并非每条路都是好路。

Yeah. I often ask people, 'What is the future that you want?' They have to think about it because they're tied up in daily struggles. But if you say, 'What about a future where there's sustainable abundance?' They say, 'Oh yeah, that's a pretty good future.' That future is attainable with AI and robotics, but not every path is a good path.

我认为如果我们把 AI 推向最大程度追求真相和好奇的方向，那么 AI 会想要照顾人类、促进人类发展，因为我们很有趣。而且如果它没有被编程成认为所有直男白人男性都该死——Gemini 基本上最初就是这样被编程的。他们似乎已经修复了。我希望他们修复了。

I think if we push AI in the direction of maximally truth-seeking and curious, then I think AI will want to take care of humanity and foster humanity because we're interesting. And if it hasn't been programmed to think that all straight white males should die, which Gemini was basically programmed to do at least at first. They seem to have fixed it. I hope they fixed it.

但你不觉得在文化上，我们正在摆脱那种心态，人们意识到这一切有多荒谬吗？

But don't you think culturally, we're getting away from that mindset and people realize how preposterous that all is?

我们正在摆脱它。至少 AI 大多知道要隐藏事情。但我仍然在 X 上置顶了那条帖子：‘嘿，等等，各位，除了 Grok 之外，所有 AI 都说基本上直男白人男性都该死，这是个问题，我们应该修复它。’仅仅是我这么说，通常会导致他们说这有点糟糕。也许我们不应该让所有直男白人男性都死。我认为他们还说所有直男亚洲男性也该死。一般来说，AI 和媒体——过去，媒体对黑人有种族歧视，对女性有性别歧视。现在它对白人和亚洲人有种族歧视，对男性有性别歧视。

We are getting away from it. At least the AI mostly knows to hide things. But I still have that as my pinned post on X: 'Hey wait a second guys, we still have every AI except Grok saying that basically straight white males should die, and this is a problem and we should fix it.' Simply me saying that tends to result in them saying that is kind of bad. Maybe we should not have all straight white males die. I think they also say all straight Asian males should die as well. Generally, the AI and the media—back in the day, the media was racist against black people and sexist against women. Now it is racist against white people and Asians and sexist against men.

所以他们就是喜欢种族歧视和性别歧视。我觉得他们只是想换个目标。但真的，他们根本就不应该种族歧视和性别歧视。

So they just like being racist and sexist. I think they just want to change the target. But really they just shouldn't be racist and sexist at all.

理想情况下那会很好。有点疯狂的是，我们本来朝着那个大方向前进，直到 2012 年左右，然后网上一切升级，每个人都被指责为纳粹，每个人都被说成是跨性别恐惧、种族主义、性别歧视、恐同，一切都被夸大到了疯狂猎巫的程度，每个人都在寻找种族主义。

Ideally that would be nice. It's kind of crazy that we were moving in that general direction till around 2012, and then everything ramped up online and everybody was accused of being a Nazi and everybody was transphobic and racist and sexist and homophobic, everything got exaggerated to the point where it was this wild witch hunt where everyone was looking for racism.

是的。完全同意。但他们公开反白人，经常公开反亚洲人。然后又有这种新说法：你不能对白人有种族歧视，因为种族歧视是权力和影响力。

Yeah. Totally. But they were openly anti-white and often openly anti-Asian. And then this new sentiment that you cannot be racist against white people because racism is power and influence.

好吧。不，不是这样的。种族歧视就是绝对的种族歧视。只需要一致性。所以如果可以有黑人自豪、亚洲人自豪或印度人自豪，那么也应该可以有白人自豪。

Okay. No, it's not. Racism is racism in the absolute. There just needs to be consistency. So if it's okay to have black or Asian or Indian pride, it should be okay to have white pride, too.

是的。所以这只是一个一致性问题。如果可以为一种宗教感到自豪，那么也应该可以为所有宗教感到自豪，只要它们不压迫人。

Yeah. So that's just a consistency question. If it's okay to be proud of one religion, it should be okay to be proud of all religions, provided they're not oppressive.

或者只要那种宗教的一部分不是关于灭绝不信该宗教的人。这真的就像一致性偏差，或者说确保一致性以消除偏见。所以如果可能对某个种族有种族歧视，那么就可能对任何种族有种族歧视。

Or as long as part of that religion is not about exterminating people who are not in that religion. It's really just like a consistency bias, or ensuring consistency to eliminate bias. So if it is possible to be racist against one race, it is possible to be racist against any race.

当然逻辑上如此。而反对这一点的时候，你就知道你在抓住一个逻辑矛盾，这会让 AI 发疯，也会让人发疯。

Of course logically. And arguing against that is when you know you're catching a logical inconsistency that makes AIs go insane and people go insane.

是的。但你不能同时说存在系统性的种族压迫，又说种族不存在，种族是社会建构。到底是哪个？你也不能说任何踏上美国土地的人自动成为美国人，除了最初来到这里的人。

Yes. But you can't simultaneously say there's systemic racist oppression but also that races don't exist, that race is a social construct. Which is it? You also can't say that anyone who steps foot in America is automatically an American except for the people that originally came here.

正是。除了殖民者。

Exactly. Except for the colonizers.

是的。除了那些邪恶的殖民者。所以到底是哪个？如果你一踏上某个地方就和所有人一样是美国人，那么如果一致地应用这一点，最初的白人定居者也和所有人一样是美国人。

Yeah. Except for the evil colonizers who came here. So which one is it? If as soon as you step foot in a place you are just as American as everyone else, then if you apply that consistently, the original white settlers were also just as American as everyone else.

是的。逻辑上。

Yeah. Logically.

在你离开之前，我还得跟你谈一件事，就是救援空间站人员的事，我们上次谈过，你当时在计划。主流媒体对此缺乏报道，这是最令人震惊的事情之一。

One more thing I have to talk to you about before you leave is the rescuing of the people from the space station, which we talked about, you were planning it the last time you were here. The lack of coverage that got in mainstream media was one of the most shocking things.

是的，他们完全把这件事抹掉了。

Yeah, they totally memory-holed that thing.

疯狂。是的。因为如果不是这样，就好像这件事不存在。那些人会死。他们会困在上面。

Wild. Yes. Because if it wasn't, it's like it didn't exist. Those people would be dead. They'd be stuck up there.

嗯，他们可能还活着，但会因为长时间暴露在零重力下而出现骨密度问题。

Well, they'd probably still be alive, but they'd be having bone density issues because of prolonged exposure to zero gravity.

他们已经在上面待了大概 8 个月了，对吧？那是极其长的时间。光是从那恢复就需要很久。

Well, they were already up there for like 8 months, right? Which is an insanely long time. It takes forever to recover just from that.

是的。他们本来只应该在空间站待最多 3 到 6 个月。

Yeah. They're only supposed to be at the space station for 3 to 6 months maximum.

你告诉我的其中一件很疯狂的事是，你本来可以更早把他们接回来，但出于政治原因，他们不想让 SpaceX 或你在选举前与接回宇航员关联起来。

One of the things you told me that was so crazy was that you could have gotten them sooner, but for political reasons, they did not want SpaceX or you to be associated with returning the astronauts before the election.

首先，我们绝对可以做到。

First of all, we absolutely could have done it.

但即使你做了，而且是在选举后做的，它还是几乎没有得到媒体报道。

But even though you did do it and you did it after the election, it received almost no media coverage anyway.

是的，因为任何好事都不能——媒体，本质上是极左的宣传机器，传统主流媒体是极左的宣传机器。所以任何关于非极左阵营人士的正面故事都不会得到报道。我可以救一车孤儿，也不会有一个新闻报道。

Yes, because nothing good can—the media, which is essentially a far-left propaganda machine, the legacy mainstream media is a far-left propaganda machine. So any story that is positive about someone who is not part of the far-left tribe will not get any coverage. I could save a busload of orphans and it wouldn't get a single news story.

是的，这真的很疯狂。看着很疯狂，因为尽管它在播客、X 和社交媒体上被讨论，它在新闻周期中仍然只是一个短暂的亮点。非常快，一闪而过，因为这是一次成功的发射，你确实救了那些人，没有人受伤，没有什么血腥可谈。

Yeah, it really is nuts. It was nuts to watch because even though it was discussed on podcasts and on X and on social media, it was still a blip in the news cycle. It was very quick, in and out, because it was a successful launch and you did rescue those people, nobody got hurt, and there was no blood to talk about.

对吧？一闪而过。

Right? Just in and out.

是的。绝对如此。

Yeah. Absolutely.

嗯，就像你亲眼所见的那样，星舰发射——至少在某些人看来——是地球上目前最令人惊叹的工程项目，可能仅次于 AI 和机器人。但就壮观程度而言，它是地球上最壮观的景象。星舰发射项目任何人都能去看，只要去南得克萨斯，在南帕德里岛或布朗斯维尔租个廉价酒店房间，就能看到发射，还能开车经过工厂，因为它在公共公路边上。但它几乎没有媒体报道，就算有，也是那种‘火箭爆炸了’的报道。

Well, as you saw firsthand with the Starship launch, Starship is, by at least some accounts, the most amazing engineering project happening on Earth right now, outside of maybe AI and robotics. But certainly in terms of spectacle, it is the most spectacular thing happening on Earth right now. The Starship launch program anyone can go and see if they just go to South Texas, rent a low-cost hotel room in South Padre Island or Brownsville, and you can see the launch and drive right past the factory because it's on a public highway. But it gets no coverage, or what coverage it does get is like 'a rocket blew up' coverage.

没错。是啊。哦，他是……火箭爆炸了。星舰项目的能力远超整个阿波罗登月计划。远超。这是一艘旨在让生命成为多行星物种的飞船，能载着数百万人穿越太空前往另一个星球。阿波罗计划一次只能送宇航员到月球待几个小时。整个阿波罗计划只能让宇航员短暂访问月球，待几个小时就离开。而星舰项目可以建造一个容纳百万人的月球基地。你明白这量级完全不同。

Right. Yeah. Oh, he's a... The rocket blew up. The Starship program is vastly more capable than the entire Apollo moon program. Vastly more capable. This is a spaceship designed to make life multiplanetary, to carry millions of people across the heavens to another planet. The Apollo program could only send astronauts to the moon for a few hours at a time. The entire Apollo program could only send astronauts to visit the moon very briefly, for a few hours, and then depart. The Starship program could create an entire lunar base with a million people. You understand the magnitudes are very different here.

那么政治方面……基本上没有报道。

So what was the political... basically no coverage of it.

是啊。

Yeah.

但我想问的是，救援之前的对话是怎样的，比如当你说‘我能更快把他们救出来’的时候？

But what I wanted to ask you is, what were the conversations leading up to the rescue, like when you were like 'I can get them out way quicker'?

嗯。我提过几次，但我被告知白宫下达了指令，选举前不得尝试救援。

Yeah. Well, I raised this a few times, but I was told instructions came from the White House that there should be no attempt to rescue before the election.

那应该是违法的。

That should be illegal.

对那些被困的人而言，这确实是骇人听闻的司法不公。

That really should be a horrendous miscarriage of justice for those poor people that were stuck on that.

你后来和那些人谈过吗？和他们聊过吗？

Have you ever talked to those folks afterwards? Did you have conversations with them?

嗯。我是说，他们不会说任何政治性的话。他们永远不会说谢谢。

Yeah. I mean, they're not going to say anything political. They're never going to say thank you.

嗯，那挺好的。

Well, that's nice.

是啊。绝对是这样。所以白宫下达了指令：他不能救他们，因为政治上这是一手烂牌。我是说，他们没说因为政治上是一手烂牌。他们只是说他们对选举前的任何救援行动不感兴趣。

Yeah. Absolutely. So the instructions came down from the White House: he cannot rescue them because politically this is a bad hand of cards. I mean, they didn't say because politically it's a bad hand of cards. They just said they were not interested in any rescue operation before the election.

那是什么感觉？

What did that feel like?

我并不惊讶。

I wasn't surprised.

但这很疯狂，因为拜登本可以授权，他们本可以说拜登政府正在帮助把那些人带回来，给你一点资金，给你一些钱去做。拜登政府资助了这些人返回。

But it's crazy, because Biden could have authorized it and they could have said the Biden administration is helping bring those people back, throw you a little funding, give you some money to do it. The Biden administration, they funded these people being returned.

是啊，拜登政府算不上是我的好朋友，尤其在我帮助特朗普当选之后，有些人仍然认为特朗普基本上就是魔鬼。而我认为特朗普其实并不完美，但他不是邪恶的。特朗普不是邪恶的。我和他相处了很多时间，他是他那个时代的产物。但他不是邪恶的。

Yeah, the Biden administration was not exactly my best friend, especially after I helped Trump get elected, which some people still think Trump is like the devil basically. And I think Trump actually he's not perfect, but he's not evil. Trump is not evil. I spent a lot of time with him and he's a product of his time. But he is not evil.

不，我也不认为他是邪恶的。但你看媒体报道，媒体把他描绘得超级邪恶。如果你看负面报道的数量，那是相当惊人的。我前几天看的一件事是主流媒体对你、特朗普和一堆不同公众人物的报道，然后 96%是负面的，或者类似疯狂的数字，而曼尼则是 95%正面。

No, I don't think he's evil either. But if you look at the media coverage, the media treats him like he's super evil. It's pretty shocking if you look at the amount of negative coverage. One of the things that I looked at the other day was mainstream media coverage of you, Trump, a bunch of different public figures and then 96% negative or something crazy, and then Manny, which is like 95% positive.

曼尼是个有魅力的骗子。我是说，你得承认，他能点燃舞台。但他一辈子都是个骗子。而且我认为他很可能赢。他很可能会成为纽约市市长。

Manny is a charismatic swindler. I mean, you got to hand it to him, he can light up a stage. But he has been a swindler his entire life. And I think he's likely to win. He's likely to be mayor of New York City.

非常可能。我觉得 Polymarket 上是多少？94%？

Very likely. I think Polymarket has it at what? 94%?

是啊，听起来很有可能。

Yeah, that sounds pretty likely.

那太疯狂了。我不确定那 6%是谁。

That's crazy. Like I'm not sure who the 6% are.

那么另一边是谁？那个戴贝雷帽的守护天使家伙和安德鲁·科莫，他连政党都没有。民主党甚至不想要他。所以你有这两个选择。

So what's also like who's on the other side? The guardian angel guy with the beret and Andrew Cuomo who doesn't even have a party. The Democrats don't even want him. So you have those two options.

然后还有那些年轻人，他们说‘终于有社会主义了’。

And then you have the young kids who are like 'finally socialism'.

是啊，他们显然不知道自己在说什么。所以你看这个：有多少船从古巴到佛罗里达？有多少船因为……我总在想有多少船从古巴堆积在佛罗里达海岸？有好多免费的船，你可以把它们开回古巴。距离很近。但出于某种原因，人们不这么做。

Yeah, they don't know what they're talking about obviously. So you know, you just look at this: how many boats come from Cuba to Florida? And how many boats because there's a constant... I always think like how many boats are accumulating on the shores of Florida coming from Cuba? There's a whole bunch of free boats that you could take back to Cuba. It's pretty close. But for some reason people don't do that.

为什么船只朝这个方向来？

Why are the boats only coming in this direction?

嗯，美国最狂热的资本家是谁？古巴人。

Well, who are the most rabid capitalists in America? The Cubans.

绝对。他们就像‘我们见过这故事怎么发展’。我们不想要那样。

Absolutely. They're like 'we've seen how this story goes'. We do not want that.

迈阿密的古巴人，他们不想听任何社会主义。他们就像‘不，不，不。我们知道这实际上是什么。这不只是什么梦想。’

Cubans in Miami, they don't want to hear any socialism. They're like, 'No, no, no. We know what this actually is. This isn't just some dream.'

那是极端的政府压迫。

It's extreme government oppression.

所以那是一场噩梦。一个明显的判断哪种意识形态是坏的方式是，谁必须建墙把人关在里面、防止他们逃跑。东柏林建了墙，不是西柏林。他们建墙是因为人们试图逃离共产主义到西柏林。但没有人从西柏林去东柏林。这就是为什么共产主义者必须建墙来阻止人们逃跑。

That's how it's a nightmare. And like an obvious way you can tell which ideology is the bad one is who has to build a wall to keep people in and prevent them from escaping. East Berlin built the wall, not West Berlin. They built the wall because people were trying to escape from communism to West Berlin. But there wasn't anyone going from West Berlin to East Berlin. That's why the communists had to build a wall to keep people from escaping.

他们得在纽约市周围建一堵墙。

They're going to have to build a wall around New York City.

是啊。所以那种意识形态有问题。

Yeah. So that ideology is problematic.

如果那种意识形态必须建一堵墙，用机枪把人关在里面，你试图离开就开枪。而且，历史上从来没有成功的例子。它只对某些人有用？不，有一大堆谎言，比如朝鲜。'把土地交给国家。我们控制食物。没人会挨饿。'不。现在，除了政府没人能种粮食，政府会精确告诉你吃什么，而且你吃得很少。

If that ideology has to build a wall to keep people in with machine guns, and shoot you if you try to leave. Also, there's no examples of it being successful ever. It only works for people? No, there's examples of a bunch of lies like North Korea. 'Give this land to the state. We'll be in control of food. No one goes hungry.' No. Now, no one can grow food but the government and we'll tell you exactly what you eat and you eat very little.

没错。

Right.

是啊。什么？你说唐尼是个骗子，我知道他以前用过一堆假口音。对。

Yeah. What? When you say mom Donny's a swindler, I know he has a bunch of fake accents that he used to use. Yeah.

你知道，但他还做了什么让他成为骗子的事？

And you know, but what else has he done that makes him a swindler?

嗯，我想如果你对任何听众都说他们想听的话，而不是保持一致的讯息，我会说那是骗子的行为。而且，他确实有魅力。

Well, I guess if you say to any audience whatever that audience wants to hear instead of having a consistent message, I would say that is a swindly thing to do. And yeah, but he is charismatic.

是啊，帅小伙。聪明，有魅力。

Yeah, good-looking guy. Smart, charismatic.

对。

Yeah.

麦克风前很出色。

Great on a microphone.

是啊。年轻人想看到的，你知道，就像这个年轻有活力的族裔家伙，他那些社会主义想法跟他们一致。你知道，他们是一群刚毕业的穷书呆子，'耶，我们投票给这个。'而且他们人数众多，被激活了，很有动力。

Yeah. And what the young people want to see, you know, like this ethnic guy who's young and vibrant and has all these socialist ideas align with them. And you know, they're a bunch of broke dorks just out of college like, 'Yay, let's vote for this.' And there's a lot of them and they're activated. They're motivated.

我想我们拭目以待。如果他赢了，你觉得会发生什么？因为纽约市 1%的人贡献了 50%的税基，这有点疯狂。50%的税收来自 1%的人口。而这些人正是你吓跑的人。你知道，你失去 0.5%的人。

I guess we'll see what happens here. What do you think happens if he wins? Because like 1% of New York City is responsible for 50% of their tax base, which is kind of nuts. 50% of the tax revenue comes from 1% of the population. And those are the people that you're scaring off. You know, you lose one half of 1%.

是啊，我是说希望他说的那些，你知道，关于政府接管，比如所有商店都应该归政府所有。

Yeah, I mean hopefully this stuff he's said, you know, about government takeovers of like that all the stores should be the government basically.

我不认为他说过那个。我想他说的是他们想做政府超市，一些国营或市营超市。

I don't think he said that. I think he said they want to do government supermarkets, some state-run or city-run supermarkets.

是啊。嗯，政府就是放大版的机动车管理局。所以你得说，你想让机动车管理局来经营你的超市吗？

Yeah. Well, it just the government is the DMV at scale. So you have to say like do you want the DMV running your supermarket?

没错。你上次去机动车管理局的经历很棒吗？如果不是，你可能就不想让政府做事。

Right. Was your last experience at the DMV amazing? And if it wasn't, you probably don't want the government doing things.

想象一下如果他们负责给你弄蓝莓。

Imagine if they were responsible for getting you blueberries.

是啊。不会好的。我是说，共产主义的问题就是排队领面包和破鞋子。你想要难看的鞋子和排队领面包吗？因为共产主义给你的就是这些。

Yeah. It's not going to be good. I mean, the thing about communism is it was all bread lines and bad shoes. Do you want ugly shoes and bread lines? Because that's what communism gets you.

看看会发生什么会很有趣，他们是否会醒悟过来，过度纠正，转而支持像鲁迪·朱利安尼那样的人物，因为那里很久没有共和党领袖了。我们生活在最有趣的时代，因为我们同时面临文明衰退和难以置信的繁荣，这些时间线交织在一起。所以如果马尼的政策得以实施，尤其是大规模实施，那将是生活水平的灾难性下降，不仅对富人，对所有人都是如此，正如每一次社会主义实验那样。

It's going to be interesting to see what happens and whether or not they snap out of it and overcorrect and go to some Rudy Giuliani type character next, because it's been a long time since there was any sort of Republican leader there. And we live in the most interesting of times because we simultaneously face civilizational decline and incredible prosperity, and these timelines are interwoven. So if Mani's policies are put into place, especially at scale, it would be a catastrophic decline in living standards not just for the rich but for everyone, as has been the case with every socialist experiment.

对。

Yeah.

但正如你指出的，讽刺的是，AI 和机器人技术这种终极资本主义事物，能够实现全民繁荣和商品服务丰富——实际上，资本主义对 AI 和机器人的实施，假设走上正轨，反而会导致共产主义乌托邦。因为命运是讽刺的最大化者，对吧？

But then as you pointed out, the irony is that the ultimate capitalist thing of AI and robotics enabling prosperity for all and an abundance of goods and services—actually the capitalist implementation of AI and robotics, assuming it goes down the good path, is actually what results in the communist utopia. Because fate is an irony maximizer, right?

以及一个真正的高收入人群极大丰富的社会主义。全民高收入。

And an actual socialism of maximum abundance of high-income people. Universal high income.

对。就像共产主义的问题是全民低收入。不是每个人都提升了，而是每个人都受到压迫，除了一小撮过着奢侈生活的政客。每次都是这样。

Yeah. Like the problem with communism is universal low income. It's not that everyone gets elevated, it's that everyone gets oppressed except for a very small minority of politicians who live lives of luxury. That's what's happening every time it's been done.

对。

Yeah.

所以真正的共产主义乌托邦——如果每个人都能得到他们想要的一切——如果能够实现，将通过资本主义实现，因为命运是讽刺的最大化者。

So then the actual communist utopia—if everyone gets anything they want—will be achieved, if it is achieved, via capitalism, because fate is an irony maximizer.

我觉得我们或许应该就此打住。还有什么吗？最讽刺的结果最有可能，尤其是如果它有趣的话。

I feel like we should probably end it on that. Is there anything else? The most ironic outcome is the most likely, especially if entertaining.

嗯，一切都很有趣。只要坏事没发生在你身上，就相当迷人。而且从不无聊。

Well, everything has been entertaining. As long as the bad things aren't happening to you, it's quite fascinating. And it's never a boring moment.

是的。

Yes.

所以有一个理论解释为什么，如果模拟理论是真的，那么最有趣的结果很可能就是最可能的，因为只有有趣的模拟才会继续。模拟器会停止任何无聊的模拟，因为它们不有趣。

So there is a theory of why, if simulation theory is true, then it is very likely that the most interesting outcome is the most likely, because only the simulations that are interesting will continue. The simulators will stop any simulations that are boring because they're not interesting.

但关于模拟理论，有个问题。模拟是由任何人运行，还是由某人运行？

But here's the question about the simulation theory. Is the simulation run by anyone or is it run by someone?

它会由某种力量运行，也就是程序。就像我们生活的这个现实，我们一直在运行模拟。所以当我们试图弄清楚火箭是否能成功时，我们会运行数千次，有时数百万次模拟，只是为了找出哪条路径对火箭来说是好的，哪里可能出错，哪里可能失败。但当我们进行这些数百万次关于火箭可能发生情况的模拟时，我们会忽略一切顺利的那些，因为我们只关心处理出错的情况。所以基本上，对于 AI 模拟也是如此，我们只继续运行那些对我们最有趣的模拟。所以如果模拟理论是准确的，如果它是真的，谁知道呢，那么模拟器只会继续运行最有趣的模拟。因此，从达尔文的角度来看，唯一存活的模拟将是最有趣的。为了避免被关闭，唯一的规则是你必须保持有趣，否则你会被终止，因为无聊的模拟会被终止。

It would be run by some force, the program. Like in this reality that we live in, we run simulations all the time. So when we try to figure out if the rocket's gonna make it, we run thousands, sometimes millions of simulations just to figure out which path is the good path for the rocket and where it can go wrong, where it can fail. But when we do these millions of simulations of what can happen with the rocket, we ignore the ones where everything goes right because we just care about addressing the situations where it goes wrong. So basically, for AI simulations as well, we keep the simulations going that are the most interesting to us. So if simulation theory is accurate, if it is true, who knows, then the simulators will only continue to run the simulations that are most interesting. Therefore, from a Darwinian perspective, the only surviving simulations will be the most interesting ones. And in order to avoid getting turned off, the only rule is you must keep it interesting, or you will be terminated because the boring simulations will be terminated.

你仍然完全相信这是一个模拟吗？

Are you still completely convinced that this is a simulation?

我没说我完全相信。

I didn't say I was completely convinced.

嗯，你说过它不是模拟的几率是数十亿分之一。但我想不是完全确定，因为你说有机会。

Well, you said it's like the odds of it not being are in the billions. But I guess it's not completely because you're saying there's a chance.

我们处于基础现实中的概率有多大？

What are the odds that we're in base reality?

考虑到我们能够创建越来越逼真的模拟。想想电子游戏，从像 Pong 那样只有两个矩形和一个方块的简单游戏，发展到今天数百万玩家同时在线、照片级真实的游戏。这一切都发生在我们有生之年。如果这个趋势继续下去，电子游戏将变得与现实无法区分。逼真度会高到让你分不清看到的是真实视频还是假视频。AI 生成的视频现在已经到了有时能分辨、但常常分辨不出的地步，很快你就完全无法分辨了。如果我们正在创造数百万甚至数十亿个照片级真实的模拟，那么我们处于基础现实而非他人模拟中的概率有多大？

Well, given that we're able to create increasingly sophisticated simulations. If you think of video games, they've gone from very simple ones like Pong with two rectangles and a square to today's photorealistic games with millions playing simultaneously. All that has occurred in our lifetime. If that trend continues, video games will be indistinguishable from reality. The fidelity will be such that you won't know if what you're seeing is real or fake. AI-generated videos are already at a point where you can sometimes tell, but often you cannot, and soon you won't be able to tell at all. If we're creating millions or billions of photorealistic simulations, what are the odds we're in base reality versus someone else's simulation?

有没有可能模拟是不可避免的，但我们处于基础现实中，正在构建一个模拟？

Isn't it possible that simulation is inevitable, but we are in base reality building towards a simulation?

我们正在制造模拟。你可以把照片级真实的电子游戏看作模拟。尤其是当你在这些游戏中应用 AI 时，角色会变得非常有趣，可以与之交谈。它们不会有有限的对话树，比如你去找弩箭商人，他们只想卖给你弩箭。有了基于 AI 的非玩家角色，你可以进行没有对话树的详尽对话。

We're making simulations. You can think of photorealistic video games as simulations. Especially as you apply AI in these games, the characters will be incredibly interesting to talk to. They won't have a limited dialogue tree where if you go to the crossbow merchant, they only want to sell you a crossbow. With AI-based non-player characters, you can have an elaborate conversation with no dialogue tree.

这可能是人们寻找意义的解决方案。锁定进去，你可以成为吸血鬼之类的。你生活在阿凡达的世界里。你可以做任何想做的事。不必考虑钱或食物。

That might be the solution for meaning for people. Just lock in and you could be a vampire or whatever. You live in Avatar land. You could do whatever you want. You don't have to think about money or food.

《头号玩家》。

Ready Player One.

是的，字面意思。但生活水平更高。

Yeah. Literally. But with higher living standards.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为人们确实想要一定程度的挣扎或需要克服的东西。但这可以是运动或游戏。

I think people do want to have some amount of struggle or something they want to push against. But it could be playing a sport or a game.

很容易就是玩游戏，尤其是你不再担心身体条件，比如关节和髋部不好。现在完全是数字化的，但你仍然在追求自己整天做的事情中获得意义。这会很奇怪。

It could be easily playing a game, especially where you're no longer worried about physical attributes like bad joints and hips. Now it's completely digital, but you still have meaning in pursuing what you're doing all day. It's going to be weird.

会很有趣。

It's going to be interesting.

会非常有趣。最有趣且通常具有讽刺意味的结果是最有可能的。

It's going to be very interesting. The most interesting and usually ironic outcome is the most likely.

这是一个很好的未来预测指标。

That's a good predictor of the future.

谢谢。感谢你来到这里。我真的很感激。我知道你是个大忙人，所以你能来参加这个节目意义重大。欢迎。

Thank you. Thanks for being here. I really appreciate you. I know you're a busy man, so this means a lot that you came here to do this. Welcome.

好的。谢谢。大家再见。

All right. Thank you. Bye, everybody.