SpaceX 2026 年第三季度财报电话会议：星舰、星链与超级智能

为了理解宇宙的本质以及所有这些根本问题，我们必须扩大意识的范围与规模。大家好。我们正在得克萨斯州巴斯特罗普的 Starlink 工厂、以及未来的 Star Mine 生产基地向大家直播。我是投资者关系负责人安德莉亚·威廉姆斯，感谢各位参加 SpaceX 2026 年第三季度财报演示。和我一起的有埃隆、格温和布雷特，我们正在 X 上直播。第三季度财务业绩已于得克萨斯时间下午 3 点刚过公布，所有相关材料都已发布在我们的投资者关系网站 ir.spacex.com。今天的演示中，准备发言之后是问答环节。我们将先接受股票分析师的现场提问，然后转向投资者直接提出的问题，这些问题是在 SpaceX 团队用 Grok 搭建的专门财报问答平台上征集的。本次网络直播中，我们将讨论业务前景并做出前瞻性陈述。这些陈述基于我们截至今天的预测和预期。实际事件或结果可能因多种风险和不确定性而存在重大差异，包括财报新闻稿以及最近向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件中提到的那些，包括我们的最终招股说明书。演示过程中，我们可能会讨论某些非 GAAP 财务指标。在今天的财报新闻稿以及我们向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件中，你可以找到关于这些非 GAAP 指标的进一步披露，包括与可比 GAAP 指标的全部调节表。2026 年第三季度，我们公布了以下财务业绩，并与去年同期相比：营收 146 亿美元，较 56 亿美元增长 161%。净利润 44 亿美元，相比 11 亿美元的净亏损改善了 55 亿美元。调整后 EBITDA 为 88 亿美元，较 22 亿美元增长 306%。下面把电话交给埃隆。

In order to understand the nature of the universe and all these fundamental questions, we must expand the scope and scale of consciousness. Hello everyone. We are coming to you live from our Starlink factory and future Star Mine production site here in Bastrop, Texas. I’m Andrea Williams, Head of Investor Relations and thank you for joining us for SpaceX’s third quarter 2026 earnings presentation. Joining us are Elon, Gwen and Bret and we are live streaming on X. Our third quarter financial results were announced just after 3pm Texas time and all relevant materials have been published to our investor relations website at ir.spacex.com. For today’s presentation, our prepared remarks will be followed by a question and answer session. We will take live Q and A from equity analysts and then move to questions directly from our investors that were polled on our dedicated earnings Q and A platform which the SpaceX team built with Grok. During this webcast we will discuss our business outlook and make forward looking statements. These statements are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our earnings release and the most recent filings with the SEC, including our final prospectus. During the presentation we may discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. In today’s earnings release and our filings with the SEC, you can find additional disclosures regarding these non-GAAP measures, including all the reconciliations with comparable GAAP measures. For the third quarter of 2026, we announced the following financial results as compared to the prior year period: revenues of $14.6 billion, up 161% from $5.6 billion. Net income of $4.4 billion, an improvement of $5.5 billion from a net loss of $1.1 billion. Adjusted EBITDA of $8.8 billion, up 306% from $2.2 billion. With that, I’ll hand the call over to Elon.

谢谢。SpaceX 在发射、连接和超级智能这几条线上，正处在一个拐点。先说 Starship。第 14 次飞行是一个关键里程碑。Starship 第一次抵达轨道，并部署了投入运营的 Starlink V3 卫星。我想我们有一段回顾视频要放。好的。第 15 次飞行我们预计下个月进行，届时将尝试同时接住助推器和飞船。如果成功，这将是轨道运载火箭第一次被完整回收。这是一个巨大的技术里程碑。要把意识持续地延伸到地球之外，唯一的办法就是拥有完全可复用的轨道运载火箭。所以我认为，这是文明意识历史上一个深刻的技术里程碑。我们来看一看，如果成功，第 15 次飞行的模拟会是什么样子。如果第 15 次没有成功，我们也会做到。头几次飞行不保证成功，但我会说，下一次飞行成功的可能性大于不成功。即便没有，今年年底之前我们还有一连串稳定的 Starship 飞行尝试，明年还会加速。那么，第 15 次飞行的模拟。我们还宣布了路易斯安那航天港的开发。这对这个国家、对世界都将是一笔了不起的资产。我认为到某个时候，它大概会有 20 座或更多发射塔，并能每年向轨道及更远处运送数百万吨。这真的会是一件大事。我们预计 Starship 会在明年上半年的某个时候达到每周一飞，明年下半年每周两飞，到明年年底甚至可能更频繁。随着我们解决快速且完全的可复用，Starship 的发射速率会大幅提高。到那时我们就会拥有完全可复用。一开始，每次飞行之间还需要一点点翻修，我们会把任何翻修的需要都消除掉，这样火箭一落地就可以立刻再发射，就像飞机一样。正如我所说，这是一个深刻的技术里程碑，世界上大多数人还没意识到它有多重要。但事后回看会非常明显。Starlink 也才刚刚开始。第 14 次飞行部署了每秒 26 太比特的 Starlink 带宽。这相当于 10 次 Falcon 9 发射。所以一次 Starlink 发射，甚至还没有装满，大概只装了一半，就做了相当于 10 次 Falcon 9 发射的事。我预期，不是在遥远的未来，大概三年之内，我们将拥有当前 Starlink 星座大约 100 倍的带宽。因为我们将发射带宽高出一个数量级的卫星，并把高出一个数量级的 Starlink 卫星送入轨道，大概是 10 万颗卫星这个量级，每一颗的带宽都超过当前 Starlink 系统的 10 倍。所以我认为 Starlink 的收入至少会在某种程度上与交付的总带宽成比例。我们还有直连手机、高带宽直连手机的能力。我们也会建设地面网络，这样在 SpaceX 和 Starlink 被允许运营的任何地方，也就是世界上我们被允许运营的任何地方，都有广泛的连接。我认为带宽需求会比今天高得多。我认为三到五年内，带宽需求大概会是目前的一千倍，因为 AI 或超级智能智能体按每个智能体计算，使用的带宽远多于一个人，而智能体的数量又会远多于人。于是，要满足这种通信需求，通信带宽就得提高好几个数量级。说到 SpaceX 的超级智能，SpaceX SI，sexy，随便怎么叫。我认为人们开始意识到，部署超级智能的约束，更多在电力、冷却和基础设施，而不在芯片。我们在 SpaceX 做的，是拿出一支曾经拿到地球全部入轨质量近 90% 市场份额的团队。中国大概是 6%，包括其余所有人在内的世界其他地方加起来大约 4%。一支能做到比所有航天竞争对手加起来还高出一个数量级的团队，被用到了地面算力的部署上。这有点像纽约洋基队去打少儿棒球。这不公平，但净结果是，部署电力、冷却和基础设施的速度比任何人都快得多，到某个时候甚至可能比其他所有人加起来还快。我让大家先消化一下。我个人把很多时间花在孟菲斯，经常一周四天，日夜不停，就是为了把孟菲斯超级算力集群 classes two 弄上线。我们正按轨迹推进，在今年剩余的每一个月，每月上线大约 20 万块 GB300，明年继续这个节奏，而明年主要是 Vera Rubin 算力。到这一步，我相当有信心能在 2027 年再上线 10 吉瓦的算力。这是在今年年底我们将上线的大约 3 吉瓦、也许是 2.5 到 3 吉瓦之外。所以如果到明年年底我们上线的算力少于 13 吉瓦，我会感到意外。正如我刚才提到的，电力、冷却和电气设备基础设施在某种程度上是限制因素。为了确保这不会成为建设的约束，我们实际上打算明年再瞄准增加 20 吉瓦的电力与冷却基础设施，让我们拥有的电力和冷却远远超过点亮 GPU 所需。所以存在一个非零的可能性，目前也许还很小，但不是零：SpaceX 明年在线的超级智能算力超过 20 吉瓦。可能性小，但以前是零，现在不是零了。我们还计划在第二季度结束前上线最强大的训练集群，那将是为最优训练部署的 44 万台 Vera Rubin 计算机。我认为这对让 Grok 有可能成为最好的模型会极有帮助，至少会极具竞争力。在 Grok Bot 这边，我们看到的是我这辈子见过的产品里增长最快的一个。就 Grok Bot 而言，我从没见过任何东西长得这么快。我们也看到，Grok Bot 的人均使用量随时间上升，而不是下降。所以当我们把 Grok Bot 做得更有用，用户每周用得更多，而不是更少。我们还会面向企业客户大规模部署 Grok Bot，这是一件非常大的事，这样公司可以在团队里有效地使用它，就好像它是一个虚拟的人。我们已经在一些受信任的客户那里做早期部署，预计几周内就会对企业客户广泛部署。就 Grok Bot 而言，我认为 Grok Bot 最终可能会用掉我们大部分超级智能算力。简而言之，这对 SpaceX 到 2027 年底的年度经常性收入意味着：大概在 1000 亿到 1 万亿美元之间。布雷特，下一个是你吗？抱歉。

Thank you. So we are in an inflection moment for SpaceX across launch, connectivity and superintelligence. Starting with Starship, Flight 14 was a critical milestone. Starship reached orbit for the first time and deployed operational Starlink V3 satellites. I think we have a recap video we’re going to. All right. For Flight 15, which we expect to happen next month, we’re going to attempt to catch both the booster and the ship. This will be the… If we succeed, will be the first time that an orbital launch vehicle has been fully recovered. This is a massive technology milestone. The only way that we can extend consciousness beyond Earth on a sustained basis is with a fully reusable orbital launch vehicle. So this is, I think this is a profound technology milestone in the history of civilization consciousness. So let’s look at what a simulation of Flight 15 would look like if we succeed. If we don’t succeed in 15, we’ll, we’ll, we’ll get there. So success is not guaranteed on these first flights, but I’d say it’s more likely than not that this succeeds next flight. And if not, we have a steady stream of Starship flight attempts through the end of this year and then accelerating next year. So with that, the Flight 15 simulation. We’ve also announced the development of the Louisiana spaceport. So that’s going to be an incredible asset to the country and to the world that will, I think at some point, probably have on the order of 20 or more launch towers and enable the transport of millions of tons per year to orbit and beyond. So that’s really going to be a big deal. We expect Starship to fly weekly at some point in the first half next year and then second half next year, twice weekly, or maybe even more frequently than that by the end of next year. The rate at which we launch Starship will increase dramatically as we solve the rapid and complete reusability. So we’ll have complete reusability then. At first there will be a little bit of refurbishment that’s needed between each flight and we’ll iron out the need for any refurbishments so that you can immediately land the rocket and launch it again, just like an airplane. As I said, this is a profound technology milestone that most people in the world don’t realize how important it is. But it will be obvious in hindsight. Starlink is also just getting started. Flight 14 deployed 26 terabits per second of Starlink bandwidth. That’s equivalent to 10 Falcon 9 launches. So a single Starlink launch, which wasn’t even fully loaded — it was about maybe half loaded — did the equivalent of 10 Falcon 9 launches. So what I expect over time, not in the distant future, probably within three years, is that we will have about 100 times the bandwidth of the current Starlink constellation. Because we will have launched satellites with an order of magnitude more bandwidth and we will place into orbit an order of magnitude more Starlink satellites — probably something on the order of 100,000 satellites, each of which have more than 10 times the bandwidth of the current Starlink system. So I think revenue for Starlink will be at least somewhat proportionate to the total bandwidth delivered. And we also have direct-to-cell, high-bandwidth direct-to-cell capability. And we will be building out our terrestrial networks so that there’s broad-based connectivity anywhere that SpaceX and Starlink are allowed to operate — so anywhere in the world that we’re allowed to operate. And I think the demand for bandwidth is going to be dramatically higher than it is today. I think in three to five years there’s probably a demand for a thousand times more bandwidth than there is currently because AI or SI agents will, on a per-agent basis, use far more bandwidth than a person and there will be far more agents than there are people. So this ends up requiring a several order of magnitude increase in communication bandwidth in order to satisfy that communication demand. So talking about SpaceX superintelligence — SpaceX SI, sexy, whatever. I think people are starting to realize the constraint on deployment of superintelligence is more in power and cooling and infrastructure than it is in chips. So what we’ve done at SpaceX is we’ve taken a team that has been able to achieve a market share in mass to orbit that is almost 90% of all mass to orbit of Earth, where China is about, I think, roughly 6% and the rest of the world combined, including the rest of us, is about 4%. So a team that has been able to achieve results that are an order of magnitude greater than all competitors in space combined and applied that same team to the deployment of terrestrial compute. So this is a bit like the New York Yankees playing in Little League. It’s not fair, but the net result is being able to deploy power, cooling, infrastructure at a rate that is vastly faster than anyone else and may at some point be faster than everyone else combined. So I just let that sink in for a minute. I’ve been spending personally a lot of my time in Memphis, often four days a week, night and day, just getting the Memphis supercompute cluster classes two online. We’re tracking to be able to bring roughly 200,000 GB300s online per month for every month for the remainder of this year and continuing that pace next year, with next year being primarily Vera Rubin compute. At this point I would say I’m fairly confident of being able to bring an incremental 10 gigawatts of compute online in 2027. That would be in addition to the roughly 3 gigawatts, maybe 2 1/2, 3 gigawatts that we’ll have online by the end of this year. So I would be surprised if we brought on less than 13 gigawatts of compute by the end of next year. And as I mentioned earlier, the power, cooling, electrical equipment infrastructure is somewhat of a limiting factor. So to make sure that that is not a constraint for our build out, we’re actually going to aim for an incremental 20 gigawatts of power cooling infrastructure next year so that the amount of power cooling that we have is far in excess of what is needed to turn the GPUs on. So there’s a non-zero possibility — maybe it’s a small possibility at this point; it’s not zero — of SpaceX having over 20 gigawatts of superintelligence compute online next year. A small possibility, but it used to be zero; it’s not zero anymore. We’re also planning to have the most powerful training cluster online by the end of Q2, which will be 440,000 Vera Rubin computers deployed for optimal training. This will, I think, be extremely helpful for getting Grok to be potentially the best model, but certainly to be extremely competitive. So on the Grok Bot side, we’re seeing the fastest growth of a product that I’ve ever seen in my life. For Grok Bot, I’ve just never seen anything grow this fast. We’re also seeing that the usage of Grok Bot grows over time per user; it does not decline. So as we make Grok Bot more useful, we’re seeing users use it more per week, not use it less. And we’ll be deploying Grok Bot at scale for enterprise customers, which is a very big deal, so that it can be used effectively in teams by companies as though it were a virtual human. We already are in early deployment with some trusted customers and we expect to be in wide deployment within a few weeks for enterprise customers. For Grok Bot, I think Grok Bot may end up being what uses most of our superintelligence compute. In a nutshell, what this implies for SpaceX annual recurring revenue by the end of ’27 is somewhere between 100 billion and a trillion. Bret, are you going next? Sorry.

没关系，布雷特，你可以先讲。

It’s okay, Bret, you can go instead.

抱歉。我以为说到那个疯狂的节点就可以了，我以为说到那个疯狂的节点就可以了。

Sorry. I thought on that crazy note, I thought on that crazy note.

是啊，我不想让布雷特心脏病发作。

Yeah, I don’t want to give Bret a heart attack.

谢谢，埃隆。我们又一次交出了出色的执行和一个出色的季度。今天我会同时讲运营和商业亮点，也会谈下个季度的优先事项。这里有一页 KPI，我来过一遍。先说航天业务，我们仍然是世界领先的发射服务商，把绝大部分载荷质量送入轨道。第三季度我们的 35 次发射包括 21 次 Falcon 9 上的 Starlink 飞行、两次 Starship 飞行、一次我稍后再讲的 Falcon Heavy，以及 12 次高关注度的客户任务，其中包括那次 Falcon Heavy 发射，我们把 NASA 的 Roman 空间望远镜送入了深空。我们还飞了 6 次国家安保航天发射任务。我们也拿下了重要的新业务：又赢得 3 次 Dragon 载人航天任务，这将把我们带到 2028 年；还有 NASA Artemis 3 任务上的 Starlink 通信合同。此外，我们签了 18 个新的国家安保航天发射任务、一份用 Starship 向月球表面运送载荷的合同，以及 3 个新的 Starship 上的 Starfall 任务。顺便说一下，我们今天刚用 Falcon 9 做了一次 Starfall 任务。Starfall 是我们的太空舱，为科学研究提供常规、相对低成本的微重力环境，包括增进我们对癌症、糖尿病等疾病的理解，并为地球上的患者开发更好的方案。季度最后一周，正如埃隆所说，我们把 Starship 第 14 次飞行送入了轨道，紧接着在 10 月 1 日完成了一次三连发。我们在 13 个小时内，从三个 Falcon 发射场飞了三次 Falcon 任务：Crew-13 我们安全送到了国际空间站，一次 Falcon Heavy 的 NRO 任务，以及一次搭载 130 个载荷的拼车任务。这令人难以置信地展示了我们在一天之内，能同时交付载人、商业和国家安全任务。我们对 Starship 接下来要做的事也极其兴奋：飞最大的载荷，帮助在轨道上、在其他行星和月球上建设太空经济。正如埃隆所说，Starship 第 14 次飞行是一个重大技术里程碑，我们仍按目标推进：今年把一级和二级都接回塔架，明年早些时候复飞二级，并在迈向快速可复用的过程中提高发射节奏。我们将在明年早些时候尝试在轨加注，并在 2027 年开始飞行 Mobile V2 和 Starmind 卫星。我们与 FAA 有大量建设性的沟通，预计第 15 次飞行的许可证将包括返回发射场，以及对两级的塔架捕获。我对把 Starship 业务扩展到路易斯安那也极其兴奋，这是第二次路易斯安那购地。路易斯安那的地理、社区和工作伦理，都非常契合一个了不起的 Starship 未来。转到 Starlink，我们又有一个突出的季度，由消费者、企业和政府业务的持续增长所推动。季度结束时我们在 174 个市场开展业务，其中包括新开通的越南和乌干达。看用户增长，本季度我们新增了 160 万消费者，不是总用户，是消费者，全球宽带消费者用户达到略低于 1400 万。正如我提到的，这个数字不包括另外数十万企业用户和航空客户。Starlink 对世界各地社区的影响持续让我们深受鼓舞，包括为全球学校里的数十万学生和教师提供服务，以及在自然灾害期间的应急响应。第三季度，Starlink 的快速响应能力支持了 25 场危机，包括委内瑞拉地震、哥伦比亚西部地震，以及夏威夷的 Lowell 飓风。仅在委内瑞拉，Starlink 就向响应机构捐赠了超过 1400 套终端，为超过 25 万人提供了关键的 Starlink 宽带连接。正如我们上季度所说，我们继续看到企业和政府这边巨大的增长机会，航空仍是主要重点，固定站点也在积蓄势头。Starlink 目前签约大约 1.2 万架飞机，几乎占可用飞机的四分之一，我们正在与新客户和现有客户一起快速扩张。本季度我们与美国四大航司中的三家签了协议，还有一份不断增长的领先国际航司名单。汉莎、瑞士航空、COPA 航空、大韩航空、奥地利航空和韩亚航空都飞出了它们第一架装备 Starlink 的飞机。为跟上这需求，我们自年初以来把航空产能提高了四倍，并预计在年底前再翻一番。我们的航空合作伙伴报告说，Starlink 已经成为客户选择与他们同行的一个关键原因，既有越来越依赖全程连接的商务旅客，也有想随时随地保持连接的个人。我们的数据显示，坦白说客户也这么告诉我们，装备 Starlink 的航班客座率更高，全程连接很快就会成为乘客的标配。在政府这边，Starshield 继续交付独特的任务关键能力，我们还看到进一步的增长空间。我们仍按节奏推进，使企业和政府收入在未来超过消费者连接收入。在 Starship 第 14 次飞行上成功部署投入运营的 V3 宽带卫星，标志着 Starlink 的重要一步和拐点。这些卫星能力的提升，正如埃隆所说，加上 Starship 运载火箭本身，将在各市场提供额外容量，并在高需求地区打开新的销售。我们预计通信市场的增长将远远超出我们传统所想的人与人通信。连接汽车、机器人，以及超级智能的采用，会把通信需求提高的不是几个百分点，而是许多个数量级。未来几年，我们预计仅 Starlink 就会占全球互联网流量的很大一部分。在移动侧，我们继续扩大国际合作，第三季度在多个国家与新运营商开通服务，包括乌干达、刚果民主共和国、哈萨克斯坦和哥斯达黎加。截至季度末，Starlink Mobile 月活用户超过 2200 万，环比增长 37%。我们的近期优先事项仍然是明年飞完 Mobile V2 星座，并整合我们购买的频谱，以便在 2028 年初开通服务。几周前我们刚获得 FCC 批准，可以发射 1.5 万颗 Mobile V2 卫星，并宣布了一项收购低频段频谱组合的协议，这将为 Starlink Mobile 成为美国主要移动运营商铺路。转到超级智能，行业对海量算力的需求还在继续上升。我们正在快速扩张容量，既满足 Grok 及相关产品规模化带来的自身需求，也满足云服务客户的需求。企业对近期模型发布的反馈是正面的，Grok Bot 尤其是一推出就看到强劲采用。Grok Bot 是我们的智能体式助手，8 月上线，本月早些时候付费周活用户已经达到 80 万，过去一个月里翻了一倍多。B2B 是我们增长最快的类别，公司越来越多地把 Grok Bot 当作销售、市场、IT 和工程的力量倍增器，把它当成复杂端到端工作流里一个始终在线的队友。我们也在加快 Grok 模型的发布节奏，短期内预计会有显著的性能提升；近期我们还会有更多。与此同时，Cursor 的整合继续进展顺利，既加强了我们的产品能力，也借助一支成规模的企业销售队伍扩大了市场触达。这一势头的早期证据已经可见。收入超过 100 万美元的 Grok Enterprise 客户，包括 Cursor 在内，按备考口径环比增长 50%。上周我们进一步整合产品组合，宣布了一项把 Grok、Grok Bot、Cursor 和 X Premium 放在同一方案里的新计划。回顾一下，我们的业务在三个板块都有极强的势头。工程团队正在规模化 Starship，以及宽带、移动和 Starshield 的下一代卫星；商业团队则把 Starlink 扩展到航空、企业、政府和全球市场。与此同时，我们正在关键算力基础设施这些领域规模化超级智能业务，发挥我们的硬件专长。好了，布雷特，轮到你了。

Thanks, Elon. So we had an exceptional execution and quarter again. And today I’ll focus both on the operational and the commercial highlights as well as talk about the priority initiatives for next quarter. Showing a slide with the KPIs and I’ll go ahead and walk through it. Starting with our space business, we remain the leading launch provider for the world, flying the vast majority of payload mass to orbit. During the third quarter, our 35 launches included 21 flights of Starlink on Falcon 9, two flights of Starship, a Falcon Heavy which I’ll talk about in a second, and 12 high-profile customer missions, including the Falcon Heavy launch where we flew NASA’s Roman Space Telescope into deep space. We also flew six National Security Space Launch missions. We’ve also secured important new business, winning three additional human spaceflight missions on Dragon which will take us through 2028, along with the Starlink communications contract on NASA’s Artemis 3 mission. In addition, we signed 18 new national security space launch missions, a contract to deliver payload to the lunar surface with Starship, and three new Starfall missions on Starship. We just did a Starfall mission today, by the way, on Falcon 9. Starfall is our space capsule which provides routine, relatively low-cost access to microgravity environments for scientific research, including improving our understanding of diseases like cancer and diabetes and developing better protocols for patients here on Earth. During the final week of the quarter we flew Starship Flight 14 to orbit as Elon talked about, followed just after on October 1st by a triple-header. We flew three Falcon missions across our three Falcon launch sites in just 13 hours: Crew-13 we brought safely to the International Space Station, a Falcon Heavy NRO mission, and a rideshare mission flying 130 payloads. It’s an incredible display of what we can deliver in a single day across crew, commercial, and national security missions. We’re also incredibly excited for what’s ahead for Starship, flying the largest payloads to help build the space economy in orbit and on other planets and the moon. As Elon said, Starship’s Flight 14 was a major technical milestone and we remain on track with our goals to bring back both the first and second stages to the tower this year, re-fly the second stage by early next year, and ramp our launch cadence as we make progress towards rapid reusability. We’ll attempt an on-orbit refueling early next year and will begin flying Mobile V2 and Starmind satellites in 2027. We have had significant constructive engagement with the FAA and we expect the license for our Flight 15 to include return to launch site and tower catch for both stages. I’m also extremely excited about expanding the Starship operations to Louisiana with the second Louisiana Purchase. The geography of Louisiana, the community, and their work ethic is so aligned for an amazing Starship future. Moving on to Starlink, we had another standout quarter driven by continued growth across both our consumer, enterprise, and government businesses. We ended the quarter active in 174 markets, including new market launches for Vietnam and Uganda. Looking at subscriber growth, we added 1.6 million consumers — not total users, but consumers — in the quarter, reaching just under 14 million global broadband consumer subscribers. As I mentioned, this number does not include additional hundreds of thousands of enterprise subscribers and aviation customers. We remain incredibly inspired by the impact of Starlink on communities around the world, including providing service to hundreds of thousands of students and teachers in schools globally, as well as for emergency response during natural disasters. Over the third quarter, Starlink’s rapid response capabilities enabled support across 25 crises, including the Venezuela earthquake, the earthquake in western Colombia, and Hurricane Lowell in Hawaii. In Venezuela alone, Starlink donated over 1,400 kits to response agencies, providing critical Starlink broadband connectivity to over 250,000 people. As we mentioned last quarter, we continue to see significant growth opportunities on the enterprise and government side of the business, with aviation a continuing major focus and fixed site gaining momentum. Starlink is now contracted for roughly 12,000 planes, almost a quarter of the available aircraft, and we’re expanding quickly with both new and existing customers. We signed agreements with three of the four major US carriers, along with a growing list of leading international airlines during the quarter. Lufthansa, Swiss, COPA Airlines, Korean Air, Austrian Airlines, and Asiana Airlines all flew their first Starlink-equipped aircraft. To keep pace with this demand, we’ve quadrupled aviation production rates since the beginning of the year and we expect to double before the end of the year. Our aviation partners report that Starlink has become a key reason customers choose to fly with them, both business travelers who increasingly rely on full connectivity and even individuals who want to stay connected all the time, everywhere. Our data shows — and frankly our customers tell us — that Starlink-equipped flights carry higher load factors on the planes, and full connectivity is quite quickly becoming table stakes for passengers. On the government side, Starshield continues to deliver unique mission-critical capabilities and we see further room for growth. We remain on pace for enterprise and government revenues to exceed consumer connectivity revenues in the future. The successful deployment of the operational V3 broadband satellites on Starship’s Flight 14 marks an important step and an inflection point for Starlink. The increased capability from these satellites, as Elon talked about, and the Starship launcher itself will provide additional capacity across markets and enable new sales in high-demand areas. We expect the market for communications to grow far beyond just human communication that we traditionally think about. Connecting cars, robots, and the adoption of superintelligence will increase communication demands not in percentages, but in many orders of magnitude. In the years ahead, we expect Starlink alone to represent a significant portion of global Internet traffic. In mobile, we continue to expand international partnerships, turning on service with new carriers across multiple countries in the third quarter, including Uganda, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Kazakhstan, and Costa Rica. We surpassed 22 million monthly users on Starlink Mobile as of the end of the quarter, up 37% quarter over quarter. Our near-term priority remains flying the Mobile V2 constellation through next year and integrating our spectrum purchases to turn on service in early 2028. Just a few weeks ago we received approval from the FCC to launch 15,000 Mobile V2 sats and announced an agreement to acquire a portfolio of low-band spectrum which will pave the way for Starlink Mobile to become a major mobile carrier in the US. Moving to superintelligence, the industry continues to demand ever more massive amounts of compute. We’re rapidly expanding capacity to meet both our own needs as Grok and related products scale and those of our cloud service customers. Enterprise feedback on recent model releases has been positive and Grok Bot in particular is seeing strong adoption out of the gate. Grok Bot, our agentic assistant, launched in August and we already had paid weekly users of 800,000 earlier this month, more than doubling over the last month. B2B is our fastest growing category with companies increasingly using Grok Bot as a force multiplier across sales, marketing, IT, and engineering, treating it as an always-on teammate for complex end-to-end workflows. We’re also accelerating our Grok model release cadence, with significant performance gains expected in the near term; we’ll have more in the near term. At the same time, the integration of Cursor continues to progress well, strengthening both our product capabilities and our go-to-market reach with a scaled enterprise sales force. Early evidence of this momentum is already visible. Grok Enterprise customers with more than $1 million revenue, including Cursor, were up 50% quarter over quarter on a pro forma basis. Last week we further integrated the portfolio by announcing a new scheme that brings together Grok, Grok Bot, Cursor, and X Premium on a single plan. In review, our business is experiencing extremely strong momentum across all three segments. Our engineering teams are scaling Starship and next-generation satellites across broadband, mobile, and Starshield, while our commercial teams expand Starlink across aviation, enterprise, government, and global markets. At the same time, we’re scaling our superintelligence business in the key areas of critical compute infrastructure, leveraging our hardware expertise. Now, Bret, you get to go.

谢谢，格温。第三季度我们又交出了一个强劲的季度。营收同比增长了令人印象深刻的 161%，达到 146 亿美元，动力来自连接业务的持续势头，以及超级智能、也就是 SI 业务上清晰的拐点。调整后 EBITDA 再次快于营收增长，达到 88 亿美元，同比增长 306%。发射领先地位、Starlink 的经常性收入，以及 SI 基础设施业务的大幅扩张，合在一起推动了业务里有意义的经营杠杆。我们的资产负债表仍然非常强，对资本配置的关注继续让我们处于能够加快创新节奏的位置，而创新支撑着我们各项业务巨大的收入机会。我现在按板块过一遍财务。航天收入 10 亿美元，环比增长 84%，同比增长 6%，由有利的客户结构所支撑。基于 Falcon 和 Dragon 稳健的客户发射清单，我们有望在全年交出强劲增长。在资本配置方面，我们继续投资 Starship 项目，加快 Raptor 发动机和箭体生产，推进 gigabay 建设，并推进 Starbase 和卡纳维拉尔角两地的多个发射台。重要的是，我们在路易斯安那锁定了美国航天发射领先地位下一阶段的选址。这些投资对于打开 Starship 将带来的成本和运力跃迁仍然至关重要。连接业务再次交出稳健的收入增长和盈利，收入 52 亿美元，同比增长 69%，环比增长 22%。正如格温提到的，我们的 Starlink 消费者用户达到 1360 万，仅第三季度就新增 160 万，由更发达市场的增长所推动。本季度我们开始爬坡生产 V5 套件，这支持了我们缓解库存约束的进展。我们有策略地管理渠道分销，并优先在假日季之前把套件送到零售渠道，我们预计这将带来更多激活。第四季度，Starlink 消费者平均每用户收入，也就是 ARPU，月均每用户收入环比增长 5%，达到每月 69 美元，受益于本季度有利的客户结构。企业和政府收入同比增长 91%，环比增长 18%，亮点是与美国政府的 Starshield 项目增长，以及航空业的持续势头。航空仍然是一个主要增长机会，因为我们与全球许多最大航司仍处在安装的早期阶段，并且看得到关键合作伙伴进入 2027 年的加速激活路径。连接业务毛利同比翻倍，毛利率 55%，其中包括大约 3 个百分点的一次性收益，主要来自本季度的关税退税。剔除一次性收益后，调整后 EBITDA 利润率同比扩大大约 2 个百分点。向前看，卫星路线图是连接板块容量和能力的关键驱动。到今年年底以及整个 2027 年，我们预计以有意义的数量部署 V3 宽带卫星，每次 Starship 发射爬坡到的载荷，其下行容量将超过今天这一代 Falcon 9 发射的 20 倍。与此同时，我们将从 2027 年开始在 Starship 上爬坡 Starlink Mobile V2 卫星，并利用我们新增强的无线频谱组合，扩展直连手机服务，成为一家主要移动运营商。正如格温提到的，在美国，我们全部三项连接应用，Starlink 宽带、Starlink Mobile 和 Starshield，Starship 上的发射节奏预计将带来总容量、覆盖和服务质量的跃迁。SI，也就是超级智能，再次是本季度最突出的增长驱动。板块收入大幅增至 76 亿美元，环比增加 50 亿美元，同比增加 67 亿美元，主要由云服务协议的爬坡推动。随着我们把新部署的容量变现，并为业务交付强有力的经营杠杆，我们有意义地改善了该板块的盈利状况。第三季度结束时，我们的铭牌算力容量为 1.7 吉瓦，另有数据大厅已在 10 月初上线。SI 解决方案与基础设施的收入为 70 亿美元，其中 6.08 亿美元来自大约季中完成交割的 Cursor 收购；即使剔除 Cursor，SI 解决方案与基础设施收入仍环比增长 192%，主要由新云服务协议的激活所推动。有很多客户在要算力，我们正在积极建设供给，以同时满足内部和外部需求。我们预计未来的交易里会有更多新客户，并将持续评估算力资产的最高利润率用法：既包括新的和现有的云服务协议，也包括为我们自己的 SI 产品提供推理。我们在市场上看到的情况非同寻常。按当前定价，新的算力部署回收期不到一年。定价目前略高于我们上季度讨论的每瓦 30 到 50 美元区间的高端，这进一步支持了这些地面 SI 算力投资的吸引力。我们将继续以需求为导向，在部署节奏上保持审慎，把半导体供应采购上有纪律、主动的资本规划，与近期客户需求相匹配。我们目前的 SI 算力客户合同有一个好处：允许我们灵活地为自身模型训练管理容量，同时也能在市场供给持续收紧时，以有利的价格把 SI 云服务协议的收入变现。广告收入同比增长 19%，我们在刚刚过去的第二季度推出的新广告技术平台上正在积蓄更多势头。SI 板块调整后 EBITDA 为 50 亿美元，环比增加 38 亿美元，同比增加 54 亿美元，主要由更高利润率的云服务协议推动。SI 板块营业收入为 4.31 亿美元；但若剔除与 Cursor 收购相关的 12 亿美元股份支付费用，该板块仅在第三季度就交付了 16 亿美元的经营利润。把股份支付费用再点开看：我们购买 Cursor 时 600 亿美元的股权价值中，有 230 亿美元被归到留住关键员工，以及替换尚未归属的股权奖励，包括关键高管的重新归属协议。这些股权奖励将在大约未来三年的归属期内确认为股份支付。公司第三季度资本开支总额为 196 亿美元，主要用于支持 SI 算力建设、Starship 基础设施和卫星生产。季度结束时我们有大量积压订单，截至 9 月 30 日共计 630 亿美元，其中 175 亿美元被确认为递延收入。这笔积压中大约 420 亿美元预计在未来一年内确认。向前看，三个板块的需求都依然强劲，尤其是云服务业务。我们仍按此前说过的目标推进：到今年年底达到 1000 亿美元 ARR，定义为基于 12 月当月的年化收入。孟菲斯和 Southaven 的 SI 基础设施持续上线，让我们看得到今年剩余时间里一条加速的建设路径。因此，仅在本月、也就是 10 月底，我们就有望达到近 2.2 吉瓦的铭牌算力；并且正如埃隆强调的，到本季度末，铭牌算力清楚可见地落在 2.5 到 3 吉瓦区间。由于本季度还有额外容量上线，我们现在预计第四季度资本开支将在 350 亿到 400 亿美元。鉴于第三季度我们指出的一些一次性收益和客户结构，我们也预计第四季度公司整体毛利率会更接近第二季度。鉴于未来六个月算力合同管道的可见度提高，我们有机会对 2027 年第一季度看到的加速提供进一步的前瞻指引。我们现在看到 2027 年第一季度公司总收入在 330 亿到 370 亿美元区间。最后，公司的财务画像正处在一个转型阶段。我们在 SI 算力、Starship 研发与生产，以及下一代 Starlink 宽带和移动星座上积极投资，这是我们认为将产生最高长期回报的三个领域。这些是以需求为导向的投资，所在市场短期内就有可见、可触摸的回报。我们正在有纪律地建设未来的基础设施，专注于资本效率、强劲的投入资本回报，并维持强劲的投资级资产负债表，同时仍以抓住眼前机会所需的速度前进。多元化的盈利基础、对极端垂直整合的专注，以及市场对超级智能的强劲需求，合在一起让我们对前方的路径有信心。说到这里，我把话筒交回给安德莉亚。

Thank you, Gwen. We delivered another strong quarter in Q3. Revenue grew an impressive 161% year over year to $14.6 billion, fueled by the continued momentum in the connectivity business and our clear inflection point in the superintelligence or SI business. Adjusted EBITDA once again grew faster than revenue to $8.8 billion, up 306% year over year. The combination of our launch leadership, recurring Starlink revenue, and a significant expansion of our SI infrastructure business have combined to drive meaningful operating leverage in the business. Our balance sheet remains very strong and our focus on capital allocation continues to keep us in a position to accelerate the pace of innovation that underpins the significant revenue opportunity across all of our businesses. I’ll now walk through the financials by segment. The space revenues of $1 billion were up 84% sequentially and up 6% year over year, anchored by a favorable customer mix. We’re on track to deliver strong growth for the year based on our robust customer manifest for Falcon and Dragon vehicles. As far as capital allocation, we continue to invest in our Starship program, accelerating Raptor engine and vehicle production, advancing gigabay construction and progressing the multiple launch pads at both Starbase and the Cape. And importantly, we secured the location for the next phase of United States space launch leadership in Louisiana. These investments remain essential to unlocking the step change in cost and capacity that Starship will deliver. Connectivity again delivered robust revenue growth and profitability with revenues of $5.2 billion, up 69% year over year and 22% sequentially. As Gwen mentioned, we reached 13.6 million Starlink consumer subscribers, adding 1.6 million subscribers just in Q3 alone, driven by growth in more developed markets. During the quarter, we began ramping production of our V5 kits, which supported our progress on alleviating inventory constraints. We strategically managed our channel distribution and prioritized delivery of kits to retail channels ahead of the holiday season, which we expect will lead to increased activations. In Q4, Starlink consumer average revenue per user, or ARPU, monthly average revenue per user increased 5% sequentially to $69 per month, benefiting from a favorable customer mix dynamic in the quarter. Enterprise and government revenues grew 91% year over year and 18% sequentially, highlighted by growth in our Starshield program with the United States government and the continued momentum in the aviation industry. Aviation remains a major growth opportunity as we’re still early in the installation phase with many of the largest carriers worldwide and have line of sight into an accelerated activation path into 2027 for our key partners. Connectivity gross profits doubled year over year with gross margins of 55%, including a one-time benefit of roughly 3%, primarily driven by tariff refunds in the quarter. Excluding the one-time benefits, adjusted EBITDA margins expanded roughly 2% year over year. Looking ahead, the satellite roadmap is a key driver of both the capacity and capability of our connectivity segment. Through the end of the year and throughout 2027, we expect to deploy V3 broadband satellites in meaningful volume, with each Starship launch ramping towards a payload that delivers over 20 times the downlink capacity of the current generation of Falcon 9 launches today. In parallel, we will ramp Starlink Mobile V2 satellites on Starship starting in 2027 and leverage our newly enhanced wireless spectrum portfolio to expand our direct-to-cell service and become a major mobile carrier. As Gwen mentioned, in the United States, across all three of our connectivity applications—Starlink Broadband, Starlink Mobile and Starshield—the launch cadence on Starship is expected to drive a step change in total capacity, coverage and service quality. SI, or superintelligence, was again the standout growth driver for the quarter. Segment revenue increased substantially to $7.6 billion, up $5 billion quarter over quarter and $6.7 billion year over year, primarily powered by the ramp of our cloud services agreements. We meaningfully improved the segment’s profitability profile as we monetized newly deployed capacity and delivered powerful operating leverage for the business. We ended the third quarter with 1.7 gigawatts of nameplate compute capacity, with additional data halls already online in early October. For SI solutions and infrastructure, revenues were $7 billion, of which $608 million came from the Cursor acquisition closed roughly mid-quarter, and even excluding Cursor, SI solutions and infrastructure revenues grew 192% sequentially, driven primarily by the activation of new cloud services agreements. There are many customers asking for compute and we’re actively building the supply to meet both internal and external demand. We expect to have additional new customers in future deals and will continuously evaluate the highest-margin usage for our compute assets across both new and existing cloud service agreements and serving inference for our own SI products. What we’re seeing in the market is extraordinary. At current pricing, new compute deployments are generating a payback of less than a year. Pricing is currently tracking slightly above the high end of the $30 to $50 per watt range we were discussing just last quarter, which further supports the attractiveness of these terrestrial SI compute investments. We’ll continue to be demand-led and prudent in the pace of deployment, matching our disciplined and proactive capital planning for procurement of semiconductor supply to the near-term customer demand. Our current customer contracts for SI compute have the benefit of allowing us to flexibly manage our capacity for our own model training purposes, as well as be able to monetize for our SI cloud service agreements revenue at favorable pricing as the market availability continues to tighten. Advertising revenues grew 19% year over year as we build more momentum on the new advertising tech platform that we rolled out just last quarter in Q2. SI segment adjusted EBITDA was $5 billion, up $3.8 billion quarter over quarter and $5.4 billion year over year, driven primarily by higher-margin cloud service agreements. SI segment operating income was $431 million, but excluding the $1.2 billion of stock-based compensation expense related to the Cursor acquisition, the segment delivered $1.6 billion of operating profit just in Q3. Double-clicking on the share-based compensation expenses: of the $60 billion equity value for Cursor when we purchased it, $23 billion was attributed towards retaining key employees and replacing outstanding equity awards, including re-vesting agreements for key executives. These equity awards will be recognized as stock-based compensation over roughly the next three-year vesting period. Total company capital expenditures in the third quarter were $19.6 billion, primarily in support of our SI compute buildout, Starship infrastructure and satellite production. We ended the quarter with substantial backlog totaling $63 billion as of September 30, of which $17.5 billion was recognized as deferred revenue. Approximately $42 billion of this backlog is expected to be recognized within the next year. Looking ahead, demand remains robust across all three segments, particularly in our cloud services business. We remain on track to our previously stated goal of $100 billion in ARR by the end of this year, defined as annualized revenue based on the month of December. SI infrastructure continuing to come online at Memphis and Southaven gives us visibility into an accelerated build path through the remainder of this year. As a result, we’re on track to reach nearly 2.2 gigawatts of nameplate compute at the end of this month alone in October and have a clear line of sight, as Elon highlighted, to nameplate compute in the range of 2.5 to 3 gigawatts just by the end of this quarter. Because of the additional capacity coming online this quarter, we expect fourth quarter capital expenditures to now be in the range of $35 to $40 billion for this quarter. We also expect total company gross margins in Q4 to be more consistent with the second quarter, given some one-time benefits and customer mix that we highlighted in Q3. Given the increased visibility into our compute contract pipeline over the next six months, we have the opportunity to provide additional look-forward guidance on the acceleration we see in our business in Q1 2027. We now see total company revenues in the range of $33 to $37 billion for Q1 of 2027. In closing, we are in a transformative phase for the company’s financial profile. We’re investing aggressively across SI compute, Starship development and production, and next-generation Starlink broadband and mobile constellations, the three areas we believe will generate the highest long-term returns. These are demand-led investments in markets with visible, tangible returns in the near term. We’re building the infrastructure of the future with discipline, focused on capital efficiency, strong returns on invested capital and maintaining a strong investment-grade balance sheet while still moving with the velocity to capture the opportunity in front of us. The combination of our diversified earnings base, focus on extreme vertical integration and the robust demand in the market for superintelligence gives us conviction in the path ahead. With that, I’ll turn it back to Andrea.

谢谢，布雷特。我们现在开始问答环节。如果你想提问，请使用屏幕底部的举手功能。如果你今天是电话拨入的，请按星号 9 举手，按星号 6 取消静音。我想队列已经排好了。第一个问题来自摩根士丹利的 Adam Jonas。

Thanks, Bret. We’re now going to begin the Q&A section. If you’d like to ask a question, please use the raise hand function at the bottom of your screen. If you’ve dialed in today, please press star 9 to raise your hand and star 6 to unmute yourself. I think we’ve assembled a queue. We will take the first question from Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley.

嘿，各位，听得到我吗？太好了。首先，埃隆，谢谢你把会飞的车做成了真的。那真是疯了。这是我的第一句评论，也是其中之一。这对全世界的人、尤其是想去建造的年轻人来说，超级鼓舞人心。我有一个关于 Terafab 的两部分问题。你们想造芯片，想在本土、或者在一个安全可靠的地方，造出疯狂数量的芯片。所以第一，你能否确认 SpaceX 是否已经下了 EUV 设备的订单？如果下了，你预计何时交付？问题的第二部分是：当你用第一性原理看半导体制造的供应链，我知道你参观过台积电、ASML、AMD、Lam。这些都是非常了不起的公司，我相信你会同意。但当你按你自己的方式来做的时候，你认为改进他们的工艺和供应链，最大的空间在哪里？谢谢。

Hey everybody, can you hear me? Great. First, Elon, thank you for making flying cars real. That was freaking insane. It’s my first comment and that’s one of them. It’s super inspiring for people all over the world, especially young people that want to build. I got a two-part question on Terafab. You want to make chips? You want to make crazy amounts of chips onshore or in a safe and secure place. So first, can you confirm if SpaceX has placed orders for EUV machines? If so, when do you expect delivery? And just as a second part to the question, when you take a first principles approach to the semi fab supply chain—I know you’ve toured TSMC, ASML, AMD, Lam. These are very impressive companies, as I’m sure you’d agree. But where do you see the biggest areas to improve their processes and supply chain when you do it, you know, your way? Thanks.

嗯，我的意思是，我们才刚刚在摸索芯片制造。但我可以告诉你我们内部的预期，显然我给这些预期加了很大的误差棒，因为我们不知道是否真的能做到。我们内部瞄准的是，大约在明年 5 月或 6 月，让第一颗测试芯片能工作。那只是一种 SRAM 芯片之类的东西，基本上用来测试产线。地点是奥斯汀的研究工厂。我们的愿望是，大约在 2028 年第三季度，在 Givens Creek 的 Terafab、也就是主 Terafab 所在地，达到量产。这些日期非常激进，我们非常感激 ASML 以及所有其他供应商加快设备交付，以便实现这个结果。这么说吧，在 2028 年第三季度或第四季度达到量产，至少是可能结果集合里的一个。所以这些显然是芯片生产上快得离谱的时间表。我们确实有一些我认为很重要的芯片制造潜在突破，但我觉得不该在财报电话会上讨论。别把家底都交出去。但我乐观地认为，我们将大幅加快芯片生产，而 Terafab 最终会做到它的名字所暗示的事：每年制造出 1 太瓦的超级智能芯片。

Well, I mean, we’re just figuring out chip fabrication. But I’ll tell you what our internal expectations are, which obviously I put big error bars on because we don’t know if we will actually achieve this or not. What we’re aiming for internally is to make our first sort of test chip functional in approximately May or June of next year. That’s just a kind of SRAM chip or something to basically test the line. That’s at the research fab in Austin. Our aspiration is to reach volume production around Q3 of ’28 at Terafab at Givens Creek, the main Terafab location. Now, these are very aggressive dates, and we’re very appreciative of ASML and all of our other suppliers in accelerating equipment deliveries in order to achieve this outcome. Let’s just say that the outcome of achieving volume production is at least in the set of possible outcomes for Q3 or Q4 of ’28. So these are obviously insanely fast timeframes for chip production. We do have, I think, some significant potential breakthroughs in chip fabrication, but I don’t think I should discuss that on an earnings call. Let’s not give away the shop here. But I am optimistic that we will dramatically accelerate chip production and that Terafab will ultimately do what the name suggests, which is to make a terawatt of superintelligence chips per year.

下一个问题来自摩根大通的 Doug Anmuth。

We’ll take our next question from Doug Anmuth at JPMorgan.

很好，谢谢。埃隆，你能不能再谈谈你们如何在电力、冷却和基础设施这些约束上往前推进，以及到底是什么让你对 2027 年底 13 吉瓦感到踏实？然后，布雷特，也请帮我们理解一下，当你看到那种容量时，你怎么考虑资金需求。谢谢。

Great, thank you. Elon, can you talk more about how you’re working through those constraints in power, cooling, and infra, and just what gets you comfortable with the 13 gigawatts ending ’27? And then, Bret, if you could also help us understand how you’re thinking about the funding requirements, just as you look out to that kind of capacity. Thanks.

好。我的意思是，其中 3 吉瓦，或者非常接近 3 吉瓦，是我们预计就在接下来几个月里完成的。所以你可以直接看我们实际部署并点亮算力的速率。我认为你从其他超大规模云厂商那里听到的是，他们不会很具体地说每个月实际点亮了多少 GPU。而我们会说。我在这件事上尽可能精确。要部署并提供电力、全部电气设备、冷却、电池、网络，以及点亮每月 22 万块 GB300 所需的其他一切，绝对是疯狂的。但这正是我们现在正在做的，这个节奏明年显然还会加快。我不认为我们会慢下来。再说一次，我不想——如果你问，我们到底怎么搞到所有这些电力？这么说吧，我们确实有一个计划，到明年年底达到 20 吉瓦的电力和冷却。但这不是我该摊开来讲的东西。这高度专有，因为如果我告诉你，别人也会试着做同样的事。我不是说我们一定会有 20 吉瓦的电力。我是说我们有一个计划：如果一切顺利，明年我们将有 20 吉瓦的增量电力，所以总计大约 23 吉瓦。我不指望一切都顺利。所以我说，明年增加 10 吉瓦我高度有信心，20 吉瓦很难，但不是不可能。我的意思是，我们正在做的有些事我已经公开提过。我们在铸造涡轮的叶片和导叶。SpaceX 已经有非常先进的铸造能力，那是为火箭发动机发展出来的。我认为我们实际上拥有地球上最先进的铸造能力，因为火箭发动机对铸件的要求，超过你能想象的任何其他东西。把这支我认为客观上看拥有世界上最先进铸造技术的了不起的团队请来，说，嘿，你们能不能也给地面涡轮做一些叶片和导叶，这比他们过去做过的事容易得多。而当我们和涡轮供应商谈的时候，他们告诉我们，叶片和导叶比涡轮的其余部分落后 12 到 18 个月，意思是除了叶片和导叶，其他一切他们都能提前 12 到 18 个月交付。所以铸造是一个真正困难的瓶颈，而且如果说有什么变化，它似乎还在变糟。这意味着我们可以比任何人都快 12 到 18 个月把电力弄上线。这种优势很难复制。除非别人也在建一座先进铸造厂，否则他们没法在这一点上和 SpaceX 竞争。我们在看很多不同的电力来源，不只是燃气轮机。我们显然想用太阳能、风能，以及我们能拿到的每一种其他电力。推理算力也有很大的机会。如果你在工厂层面制造模块化的推理算力，让电力和冷却在工厂里就装好，然后把模块化推理算力集群分布到全国，甚至全世界。关于规模化电力和冷却，我大概就该说到这里。但正如我说的，到这一步，我会说我对明年增加 10 吉瓦高度有信心，也就是总计 13 吉瓦，以及某个超过 20 的数字。做到这一点的概率正在迅速上升。

Yeah. Well, I mean, 3 gigawatts of that, or very close to 3 gigawatts, is what we expect to have done in just the next few months. So you can just look at the rate at which we are actually deploying and turning on compute. What I think you hear from, I guess, other hyperscalers is you don’t hear a lot of detail about how many GPUs they’re actually turning on every month. And with us, you are. I’m being as precise as possible about this. It is absolutely insane to be deploying and providing the power and all of the electrical equipment, the cooling, the batteries, the networking, and everything else that’s needed to turn on 220,000 GB300s a month. But that is actually what we’re doing right now, and that pace will obviously accelerate next year. We’re not going to slow down, I don’t think. Again, I don’t want to—some of this, if you say, like, how are we going to get all this power? Let’s just say we actually do have a plan that gets to 20 gigawatts of power and cooling by the end of next year. But that is not something that I should spell out. That is highly proprietary because if I tell you about it, others are going to try to do the same thing. And I’m not saying we’ll have 20 gigawatts of power. I’m saying we have a plan where, if everything goes right, we’ll have 20 gigawatts of incremental power next year—so 23 gigawatts roughly in total. Now, I don’t expect everything to go right. That’s why I said I’m highly confident of 10 next year, and 20 is difficult but not impossible. I mean, some of the things we’re doing I have mentioned publicly. So we’re casting the blades and vanes for the turbines. SpaceX already has a very advanced castings capability that was developed for rocket engines. I think we actually have the most advanced casting capability on Earth because the demands for castings for rocket engines exceed the demands for anything else you could possibly imagine. So taking that incredible team that has, I think, objectively the most advanced casting technology in the world and saying, hey, can you guys also make some blades and vanes for terrestrial turbines, is much easier than what they have done in the past. And when we talk to the turbine suppliers, they tell us that the blades and vanes are 12 to 18 months behind the rest of the turbine—meaning they can deliver everything except the blades and vanes 12 to 18 months before they can deliver the blades and vanes. So casting is this really difficult bottleneck, and if anything it seems to be getting worse. That means we can bring power online 12 to 18 months faster than anyone else. That’s the kind of advantage that’s difficult to replicate. Unless someone else is building an advanced casting shop, they will be unable to compete with SpaceX in this regard. We’re looking at many different sources of power, not just gas turbines. We obviously want to use solar, wind, and every other source of power that we can obtain. There’s also a lot of opportunity for inference compute. If you manufacture modular inference compute at the factory level, such that the power and cooling are built in at the factory, and then you distribute modular inference compute clusters all over the country, if not all over the world. That’s about as much as I should say about scaling power and cooling. But like I said, at this point I’d say I feel highly confident of 10 gigawatts incremental next year—so 13 total—and some number over 20. The probability of achieving that is rising rapidly.

Doug，你问题的第二部分是关于资金。我认为相对于其他人，我们确实有优势：我们是投资级，有非常强的资产负债表，而且眼下我们正在谈的、可以用来资助这场惊人增长的债务资金池有好几个。另一件真正要强调的事是，回收期非常短，所以这项能力会在相当近的期限内开始自己给自己提供资金。甚至我们本季度结束时多出来的能力，都会把融资机制启动到明年上半年。所以你首先有经营现金流。你在债务市场上有多个可用的资金池，尤其因为我们的投资级地位和强资产负债表。然后，从我们看到的情况，你也有机会与整个价值链上的伙伴合作，我说的是供应商一侧和客户一侧。SpaceX 当然没有容易的事，所以金融这一块不妨同时成为挑战的一部分。但我们很有信心，能够以一种非常有节制的方式做成这件事，并在这个过程中继续把自己保持在投资级地位上。

Doug, the second part of your question related to funding. I think we certainly have the advantage, relative to others, in that we are investment grade, have a very strong balance sheet, and there are a number of available pools of debt capital that we are talking to at the moment related to funding this incredible growth. The other really important thing to emphasize is the payback period is very short, and so this capability starts to fund itself in a pretty near-term situation. And so the fact even that we’re finishing this quarter with more capability starts the funding mechanism even into the first half of next year. So you have your operational cash flows first and foremost. You have multiple pools of capital available in the debt market, especially because of our investment-grade status and strong balance sheet. And then you also have the opportunity, from what we’ve seen, to partner with, I would say, the whole value chain related to, on the vendor and customer side. There’s nothing easy about SpaceX for sure, and so might as well have the finance piece be part of the challenge at the same time. But we have a lot of conviction that we are going to be able to do this in a very measured fashion and continue to keep ourselves in that IG status along the way.

当然，如果你看我们在资本效率上的记录。

And certainly if you look at our track record with respect to capital efficiency.

绝对是。

Absolutely.

Starship 以及我们所有其他项目，你很难在世界上找到任何一家公司，在资本效率上比得上 SpaceX。

Starship and all of our other projects, you’d be hard pressed to find any company in the world that is as good at capital efficiency as SpaceX.

下一个问题来自德意志银行的 Edison Yu。

Next question from Edison Yu at Deutsche Bank.

你好，谢谢接受我们的提问，也附和一下 Adam 对 Roadster 的兴奋。有很多报道，很多人在预期与 Tesla 的合并。我知道你能说的也许有限，但如果我们退一步，你怎么看潜在合并的利弊？作为这个框架的一部分，在着手之前，有没有需要先处理的障碍？谢谢。

Hi, thank you for taking our questions and echo Adam’s enthusiasm about the Roadster. So there’s been a lot of reporting, a lot of anticipation of a merger with Tesla. I realize maybe you may be limited on what you can say, but if we take a step back, how do you think about the pros and cons of a potential combination? And as part of that framework, are there any roadblocks that you would need to address before embarking on it? Thank you.

这绝对是一个让我觉得自己在雷区里跳踢踏舞的问题，所以我必须想清楚这里该说什么。SpaceX 和 Tesla 都已应股东的要求成立了特别委员会来讨论这个想法。这些特别委员会由独立董事组成，而因为我是利益相关方，我实际上不能参加特别委员会的讨论。所以这是一种奇怪的歌舞伎：两组人在谈，我不能在谈话里。我不认为我们应该必然假定——外面有些人假定 SpaceX 和 Tesla 的合并是板上钉钉的事，我认为那说得过头了。我觉得这会是个好主意吗？是的。但归根结底股东必须支持这件事，尤其在 Tesla 一侧，我们需要全部股份 50% 的投票，不只是投票的那些人，而是全部股东，这是一个相当高的门槛。我只能说，到这一步，特别委员会还没有就任何交易的条款达成一致，而且显然不能保证他们会达成。但我确实认为把两家公司合在一起有很多道理，因为我们基本上都在超级智能里——在开发超级智能软件、芯片设计、Terafab、显然还有机器人、入轨质量，以及 Starlink 星座连接上合作，有很多可以获得的东西。所以我认为这会是个好主意。但这真的取决于两家公司的特别委员会。他们得拿出一个方案，然后再把这个方案交给股东投票。

This is definitely a question where I feel like I’m tap dancing through a minefield, so I have to be thoughtful about what I say here. Both SpaceX and Tesla have formed special committees to discuss this idea at the request of shareholders. These special committees consist of independent directors, and because I’m a conflicted party, I can’t actually be in the discussions of the special committees. So it’s an odd kabuki dance where two groups of people are talking and I can’t be in the conversation. I don’t think we should necessarily assume that—some people out there assume that a SpaceX and Tesla merger is a certainty, and I think that would be overstating it. Do I think it would be a good idea? Yes. But at the end of the day the shareholders have to be supportive of this, and particularly on the Tesla side we’ll need a 50% vote of all shares—not just those who vote, but of all shareholders—and that’s quite a high hurdle to try to achieve. I can just say that at this point the special committees have not reached agreement on the terms of any transaction, and obviously there’s no guarantee that they will. But I do think there’s a lot of merit to combining companies as we are pretty much in the superintelligence—there’s a lot to be gained from cooperating on developing superintelligence software, chip design, the Terafab, obviously robotics, mass to orbit with the Starlink constellation connectivity. So I think it would be a good idea. But it’s really up to the special committees of both companies. They’ve got to come up with something, and then that’s got to be put to the shareholders as a vote.

下一个问题来自 Evercore 的 Kutgun Maral。

Next question from Kutgun Maral at Evercore.

很好，谢谢接受这个问题。我想问 Starlink Mobile。它在很短的时间里走了很长的路，包括最近的低频段交易。即便如此，你们的频谱组合虽然已经改善很多、而且可能还会继续增长，它如何与美国的现有运营商竞争，仍然有一些不确定性。对我们这些外部人来说，未知的一部分是：卫星这一层究竟能提供多少覆盖和容量，来补上与同行之间的地面差距。所以你预期网络的卫星部分和地面部分分别扮演什么角色？在美国提供类似 5G 的体验时，我们应该如何考虑它们之间的流量结构？再宽一点说，连接业务的重点有多少放在传统的零售无线上，又有多少可能是一个巨大的物理 AI 机会？谢谢。

Great, thank you for taking the question. I wanted to ask about Starlink Mobile, which has come a long way in a short time, including the recent low-band deal. Even so, there’s still some uncertainty about how your spectrum portfolio, even though it’s much improved and possibly will continue to grow, can compete with incumbents in the US, and part of the unknown for us on the outside is how much coverage and capacity the satellite layer can really provide to bridge the terrestrial gap to peers. So what roles do you expect the satellite and terrestrial parts of the network will play, and how should we think about the traffic mix between them in delivering a 5G-like experience in the US? And maybe more broadly, how much of the connectivity focus is on traditional retail wireless versus what could be a massive physical AI opportunity? Thank you.

好，我先说——埃隆可以补充一些细节——但让我指出，移动连接的绝大部分实际上是 Wi-Fi。我认为大约 85% 到 93% 是通过 Wi-Fi 完成的。而且请记住，Starlink 宽带也做了大量 Wi-Fi 的工作。就结构而言，我认为我们预期 S 频段将提供大部分，然后你显然还需要低频段、也就是 800 MHz 频谱，基本上用来穿透建筑物。这样即使你不在 Wi-Fi 上，仍然收得到信号。我认为——顺便说一下，如果我错了，之后请纠正我——但我认为 S 频段会承载大部分，低频段承载得少一些，但提供关键的一块。另外，我们上季度、在上次财报电话会上谈过一种更小的、还算不上基站级的、但更小的无线电，可以装到已经安装 Starlink 的家庭、安装 Starlink 的企业，以及塔上。所以不只是我们谈过的 S 频段频谱。我们基本上会利用 Starlink 安装点和其他塔的不动产。

Yeah, let me—Elon can fill in some details, but let me point out that the vast majority of mobile connectivity is actually Wi-Fi. I think it’s something between 85% and 93% is done through Wi‑Fi. And keep in mind Starlink broadband does a lot of Wi‑Fi work as well. As far as the mix goes, I think we expect that the S‑band spectrum will provide the majority, and then obviously you need the low‑band spectrum, the 800 MHz spectrum, to basically penetrate buildings. So if you’re not on Wi‑Fi, you can still receive the signal. I think—and by the way, correct me if I’m wrong afterwards—but I think the S‑band will carry the majority and then the low‑band spectrum will carry less, but provide a critical piece. Also, we talked last quarter, at the last earnings call, about a smaller—kind of not quite tower‑capable—but smaller radio that we could put on already installed homes for Starlink, businesses for Starlink, towers as well. So it’s not just the spectrum that we’ve talked about with the S‑band. We will basically leverage the real estate from Starlink installs and other towers.

是的，我认为我们大概应该做一次更长的演示，讲 Starlink 连接的打法，以及为什么我们认为它最终会是一门每年收入达到数千亿美元的生意，因为你们缺了我们内部知道的一些拼图。我可以说，我们确实看到一条清晰的路径，连接收入达到每年数千亿美元。但我认为我们应该在一个不限于财报电话会几分钟的场合里，更详细地描述这件事。

Yeah, I think we probably should do a longer presentation on the game plan for Starlink connectivity and why we think it will ultimately be a business that rates several hundred billion dollars in revenue a year, because you are missing some of the pieces that we know about internally. I can say we do see a clear path to several hundred billion dollars a year in connectivity revenue. But I think we should probably describe that in more detail in a forum that’s not limited to a few minutes at an earnings call.

事实上，我们只剩三分钟了。

In fact, we only have three minutes left.

嗯，我们可以再稍微长一点。

Well, we can go a little longer.

我接下一个问题，来自高盛的 Eric Sheridan。

I’ll take the next question from Eric Sheridan at Goldman Sachs.

非常感谢接受这个问题。也许我可以把话题转到你在电话开头铺开的算力规模化。当你考虑一个框架，把这些算力用到云服务所呈现的外部机会上，相对于这些算力用于规模化 Cursor、Grok 和 Grok Bot 的内部需求。你对在这个组合里取得正确平衡的看法如何演变？从变现的角度看，这个组合在未来 12 到 18 个月可能为业务产出什么，又该怎么想？非常感谢。

Thanks so much for taking the question. Maybe if I can turn to the scaling of compute you laid out at the beginning part of the call. When you think about a framework for applying that compute to the external opportunity that presents itself from cloud services relative to the internal needs of that compute for scaling Cursor and Grok and Grok Bot. How has your view evolved about striking the right balance in that mix and how to think through the output from a monetization standpoint of what that mix might produce for the business in the next 12 to 18 months? Thanks so much.

嗯，算力在第三方和内部之间的相对分配，会一个月一个月地变。粗略地说，我们的目标是大体对半分，一半算力内部使用，一半租给别人。但这个数字可能往这边或那边摆到 60/40。它会是动态的。而且显然，我们的做法是按实际上的现货市场价格来租，而不是签这些长期协议。我们的信念是，每瓦算力的价值会随时间上升，而不是下降。原因我认为对人们来说其实应该很明显：当你改进 AI 软件、模型越来越好，你从每瓦得到的有用智能就更多。而这份算力的价值，与每瓦有用智能成比例。所以你会看到，哪怕像 H100 这样的老计算机，租金都比它们全新时更高。我认为这很可能会持续。我认为我们将面临超级智能算力的短缺，而且这种短缺会维持很长时间。所以我认为聪明的做法是做短期合同，本质上把赌注押在每瓦有用智能会快速上升上，而这显然已经发生了。到目前为止就是这样。另外，如果你看我们的短期合同是怎么续约的：它们是以更高的每瓦美元续约，还是更低？我们看到它们以更高的每瓦美元续约，不是更低。坦白说，每一家超大规模云厂商，以及几十家较小的公司，都在不停地缠着我们，要租更多算力。所以如果我们对每个人都说好，我们的算力可以被租出去好几遍。这就是这里的情况。所以我发了那种 Monty Python 奶酪店小品的视频梗：一个人走进奶酪店要买奶酪，他们实际上没有奶酪。于是他问，这种奶酪呢？那种奶酪呢？他们真的就是没有任何奶酪。所以我们实际上试过把一部分推理算力卸到其他云厂商，好让我们能把更多算力用于训练。然后我们就遇到了奶酪店小品。他们会说，嗯，我们去问问，GB300 呢？没有，那些我们没有。GB200 呢？没有，那些我们也没有。TPU 呢？没有。Trainium 呢？没有。那好，H100 呢？然后就像，嗯，我们也许在海外某处有一些。然后他们去查，回来说，没有，那个我们也没有。所以这很荒唐。是的，所以我不认为我们这里会有需求问题。而且，这不是不可能——我不是说这会发生——明年算力出现六个月回收期，并不是不可能。

Well, the relative allocation of compute to third parties versus internal is something that’s going to change from one month to the next. I guess as a rough approximation, our goal is to kind of split it 50/50, more or less, where half of the compute is used internally and half of it is rented to others. But that number could shift 60/40 one way or the other. It’s going to be dynamic. And obviously our approach is to rent at effectively the spot market rate as opposed to sign these long term deals. Our belief is that the value of compute per watt will increase over time, not decrease. The reason for that, I think it should be obvious to people really, is that as you improve the AI software, as the models get better and better, you get more useful intelligence per watt. And the value of that compute is proportionate to the useful intelligence per watt. And that’s why you see things like even old computers like H100s renting for more than they rented when they were new. And I think that’s likely to continue. I think we’re going to face a shortage of superintelligence compute and that shortage is going to remain for a long time. So I think the smart move is to do short term contracts and essentially to place the bet on useful intelligence per watt increasing rapidly, which obviously it’s done. So that’s what’s happened so far. And also if you look at, say, how are our short term contracts renewing? Are they renewing at higher dollars per watt or lower? And we see them renewing at higher dollars per watt, not lower dollars per watt. We are also frankly hounded relentlessly by every hyperscaler and by dozens of smaller companies to rent more of our compute. So we could rent out our compute several times over if we said yes to everyone. That’s just the situation here. That’s why I posted that sort of video meme of the Monty Python cheese shop sketch where the guy goes into a cheese shop to get some cheese and they actually have no cheese. And so he goes like, what about this kind of cheese? What about that kind of cheese? And they really just don’t have any cheese. So we’ve actually tried to offload some of our inference compute to other cloud providers so that we can use more compute for training. And we get the cheese shop sketch. You know, they’ll say like, well, we’ll ask them about, what about some, you know, GB300s? Nope, don’t have any of those. What about, you know, some GB200s? Nope, don’t have any of those. What about some TPUs? Nope. What about some Trainium? Nope. What about some, okay, how about some H100s? And like, well, we might have some overseas somewhere. And then they’ll check and come back and say, nope, we don’t have that either. So it’s like ridiculous. Yeah, so I don’t think we’re going to have a demand issue here. And like, it’s not impossible—I’m not saying this will happen—it’s not impossible that we will have a six month payback period for compute next year.

我们现在转到一些个人投资者的问题，他们直接发到了我们的公开问答平台上。既然我们已经谈了很多地面算力部署，就转到一个关于 V3 卫星的问题。V3 卫星带来的容量提升，何时才会真正体现为对用户有意义的更高速度和更低时延？在高需求地区，需要多少颗 V3 卫星，网络才会让人明显感觉更好？

We’re now going to turn to some questions from individual investors that were posting directly onto our public Q&A platform. Since we’ve talked a lot about compute deployment terrestrially, let’s move to a question on V3 sats. So when will capacity gains from V3 satellites actually show up as meaningfully higher speeds and lower latency for users? How many V3 sats are needed before the network feels noticeably better in high demand areas?

我认为我们需要几百颗卫星，人们才会真正感觉到影响。因为现在卫星很少的时候，你会感受到一次影响，然后，你知道，10 分钟后它就不在了。所以是几百颗卫星，我认为我们到明年年中可以做到。

I think we’ll need a few hundred satellites for people to really feel the impact. Because right now with very few satellites you’ll get an impact and then, you know, 10 minutes later it won’t be there. So a few hundred satellites, and I think we can achieve that by mid next year.

看第六个问题：能否更新一下路易斯安那的 Starbase？对于最早在 2029 年从这个场址实现 Starship 首次发射，目前的时间表和信心水平如何？

Take number six, which is: Can you provide an update on Starbase Louisiana? What’s the timeline current confidence level in achieving a first Starship launch from the site as early as 2029?

嗯，我们对路易斯安那首次发射的内部愿望实际上是两年后。所以 2028 年是我们的目标，但我认为 2029 年非常可能。我认为我们会从路易斯安那以规模发射，也就是在 2029 年达到规模。高度有信心。

Well, our internal aspiration for first launch from Louisiana is actually in two years. So 28 would be, is our goal, but I think 29 is highly likely. I think we’ll be at scale launching from Louisiana, and so at scale in 29. Highly confident.

大家都准备好收尾了吗？2026 年第三季度财报到这里结束。感谢各位收看，我们下个季度见。

You ready to wrap, everyone? This wraps up the Q3 2026 earnings report. Thank you all for tuning in and we will see you next quarter.