马斯克与肖特韦尔谈 AI 风险、星舰、Terafab 与 SpaceX/Tesla 合并

快速问一下。我们前往火星的最新时间表是什么？

Quick question. What's our latest timeline on getting to Mars?

前往火星？哦，我认为我们会在十年内让人登陆。

Getting to Mars? Oh, I think we'll put people down within a decade.

欢迎 Gwynne Shotwell，SpaceX 的总裁兼首席运营官。

Welcome Gwynne Shotwell, the president and COO of SpaceX.

她对 SpaceX 的成功至关重要，是非常关键的人物。她真的是粘合剂，你知道，她是龙卷风的粘合剂。

She's an instrumental, a really crucial person to the success of SpaceX. She's really the glue, you know, she's the glue to the tornado.

快速失败，快速学习，让你的设计更稳健。如果我们在月球上没有建立定居点，我会感到失望。

Fail fast, learn fast, make your design robust. I would be disappointed if we didn't have a settlement on the moon.

这家太空和人工智能公司以 750 亿美元的 IPO 正式创造了历史，上市时市值达到 1.7 万亿美元。

The space and AI firm has officially made history on its $75 billion IPO, debuting with a market value of $1.7 trillion.

放置推理算力的最高效地点是在轨道上。管理风险，不要回避它。

The most efficient place to put inferred its compute is on orbit. Manage risk, don't avoid it.

请欢迎 Gwen Shotwell。嘿，非常感谢你的到来。

Please welcome Gwen Shotwell. Hey Thank you so much for coming.

你哪里

Where do you

就在这儿旁边的沙发？

right here next couch?

欢迎。

Welcome.

谢谢。

Thank you.

感谢你来到这里。

Thanks for being here.

很高兴来到这里。

It's good to be here.

很高兴见到你。

Nice to see you.

嗯，我们真的很感激你能来。SpaceX 那边怎么样？

Well, um, we really appreciate you coming out. How's it going at SpaceX?

你知道，我们很无聊。没什么事情发生。

You know, we're bored. There's nothing going on.

没什么大事。

Not a lot happening.

我有的是时间。

I've got all the time in the world.

顺便说一句，

And by the way,

顺便说一句，Elon 有更多时间。

Elon has more time, by the way.

是的。我的意思是，你在 SpaceX 待了很久。你是继 Elon 之后任期最长的员工吗？

Yeah. I mean, you've been at SpaceX forever. Are you the longest tenur employee after Elon?

继 Elon 之后。是的。事实上，我的 24 周年纪念日是 9 月 9 日，上周的某一天。

After Elon. Yeah. In fact, my 24th anniversary was the 9th of September, last week. Sometime.

哇。

Wow.

是的。是的。

Yeah. Yeah.

这太了不起了。Bruno，你能带我们回到你最初接到这个电话的那天吗？你当时想，嘿，有这么个东西，决策的弧线是什么样的，你是怎么被说服来承销这个业务的？就像带我们过一遍。

That is extraordinary. Bruno, can you take us back to the day where you initially get this call and you're like, hey, uh there's this thing like what is the the arc of the decision look like and how did you get convinced to underwrite this business? Like just walk us through that.

好吧。嗯，Elon 承销了它，对吧？我只是在那里工作。是的。但这个故事其实有点疯狂。所以，我正要出去吃午饭。我最好的朋友之一，和我一起工作的，要去为 Elon 工作，我带他去吃午饭，算是送别午餐，他说：“哦。”当我把他送回去时，他说：“哦，进来见见 Elon。”就像，啊，他很忙，你知道。我们不需要那样做。但我们还是做了。我见到了他，我说：“嘿，我觉得你真的需要，我觉得你需要一个全职的人来管理你的业务发展部门。你知道，你有一个兼职的。他是承包商。你知道，这看起来不太好。”他非常若有所思地看着我，你知道，挠了挠头，然后我们说了再见，聊了一会儿，说了再见。然后我回到办公室，接到 Elon 的助理 Mary Beth 的电话，她说：“Elon 想让你申请新的业务发展副总裁职位。你能来面试吗？”我说：“现在？不，我有工作。我现在不能去。明天？好的，当然。明天。”然后我花了大约四周时间才决定答应。我当时完全是个白痴。

Okay. Well, Elon underwrote it, right? I just worked there. Yeah. But the the story is uh a little crazy, actually. So, I was going out to lunch. One of my best friends who I was working with was going to go work for Elon, and I took him out to lunch, kind of going away lunch, and he's like, "Oh." When I dropped him back off, he said, "Oh, come on in and meet Elon." Like, ah, he's busy, you know. We don't need to do that. But we did it anyhow. and I met him and um I said, "Hey, I think you really need I think you need a full-time person to run your business development shop. You know, you've got kind of a part-timer. He's a contractor. It you know, it's not a great look." And and he looked at me very thoughtfully and, you know, kind of scratched his head and then we said goodbye, chatted a little bit, said goodbye. And then I got back to my office and I got a call from Elon's assistant, Mary Beth, and she said, "Elon wants you to apply for the new vice president of business development position. Can you come interview?" I'm like, "Now? I no, I have a job. I can't go now. Tomorrow? Okay, sure. Tomorrow." And then it took me like four weeks to decide yes. I was being a total idiot.

但当时，那个业务的规模有多大？比如你觉得它需要什么它没有的东西？因为它仍然非常处于研发阶段。

But at the time, like what was the scale of that business? Like what did what what did you think it needed that it didn't have? because it was still very much an R&D.

它非常处于研发阶段，但你知道，Elon 有投资，他想要一些回报。他想要现金，对吧？他想要客户。

It was very R&D, but you know, Elon had an investment and he wanted some return. He wanted cash, right? He wanted customers.

无论如何，我在航天行业做那项工作。嗯，结果我做得相当不错。嗯，呃，但呃，是的。所以，他，所以，它看起来像什么？我是第七个签合同的员工。我提前两周通知，然后请了一周假来翻新浴室，因为我知道我永远不会有时间做这个。一旦我开始为 Elon 工作，三周后，我是第 11 号员工，我们就开始干了，大约 12 个月后我们卖出了一枚火箭。

And I was doing that work anyhow in the space industry. Um, turned out I was pretty good at it. Um, uh, but uh, yeah. So, he So, what did it look like? I was the seventh employee to sign my contract. I took I gave two weeks notice and took a week off to remodel a bathroom because I knew I would never have time to do it. Once I started working for Elon came three weeks later, employee number 11 and we just got to it and we sold a rocket about 12 months later

那就是，那就是

and that's and that's

没有火箭。没有火箭。

without a rocket. There wasn't a rocket.

没有火箭。是的。那么，那个销售周期是什么样的？你如何说服别人他们可以真正承担那个风险，也许给你需要的定金来开始建造这个东西的周期？

There wasn't a rocket. Yeah. So, what does that sales cycle look like? How do you convince somebody that they can they can actually take that risk and maybe give you the deposit you need to start the cycle to build the thing?

所以，时机很好。顺便说一句，SpaceX 本不该存在，对吧？如果其他发射提供商很出色，那么新进入者就无法取得进展，对吧？因为他们太根深蒂固了。所以，我们本不该成功。但事实证明，你知道，客户服务并不好。火箭极其昂贵。所以，有那一部分，对吧？然后另一部分是 9/11。嗯，当时，军方拼命寻找能快速发射的人。你知道，他们在 9/11 事件后大约四个小时内知道坏人在哪里，他们真的希望能够获得一些战区能力。嗯，我们花了一段时间才做到，但我们做了我们说过要做的事。

So, the timing was great. By the way, SpaceX should never have existed, right? If the other launch providers were great, then a new entrant can't make headway, right? Because they were so entrenched. So, we should have never made it. But turns out, you know, customer service wasn't great. Rockets were incredibly expensive. And so, there was that piece, right? And then the other piece was 9/11. Um, at that time, the military was desperately looking for someone who could come in and do rapid launch. you know, they they kind of knew where the bad guys were about four for about four hours after the events of 911, and they really wanted to be able to get some capability in theater. Um, it took us a while to do it, but we we did what we said we were going to do.

哦，所以这真的是从悲剧中诞生的机会

Oh, so it really was sort of like out of tragedy, this opportunity gets born

在某种程度上。是的，

to some extent. Yeah,

那是

that's

而且这不是 SpaceX 特有的。这只是当时行业的状态。

and it wasn't specific to SpaceX. It was just the state of the industry at the time.

然后显然你知道非常非常著名的第一章，你们几乎到了边缘，你需要最后一次发射成功，嗯，你的角色在那个时候开始变得相当有意义。所以你能带我们了解一下那个业务的内部动态，是什么让你进入了那个位置？

And then obviously you know very very famous first chapter where you guys get almost to the brink and you need this last launch to work and um your role started to evolve pretty meaningfully by that point. So can you walk us through like what was the internal dynamics at that business that kind of like put you into that position?

所以它非常初创。嗯，我是销售女士。嗯，但然后当你有销售时，你需要，你知道，管理你的客户，你需要一个财务职能。即使我们很小，我想当时一个国防承包商说：“他们是我脚趾上的苍蝇，你知道，在我大脚趾上之类的。”我说：“好吧，我不认为你脚趾上应该有苍蝇。”但是，嗯，呃，所以，但你仍然需要一个政府事务职能。你需要保护自己。嗯，我们在华盛顿从不采取攻势。我们总是处于防御模式。嗯，但我只是不断承担越来越多，然后当我们得到当时最大的合同时，那是货物补给合同。我们称之为 CRS，这是 2008 年。嗯，Elon 在特斯拉超级忙，在 SpaceX 也相当忙。有很多事情发生，他当时需要一个合作伙伴，我想他试图选择这边的 Quinn 或者也许是其他某个承担了更多技术范围的人，他在我们前往与 NASA 最终谈判这个 16 亿美元合同的跑道上问我。就像嘿，你想当总裁吗？我当时想

So it was very startupy. Um I was the sales lady. Um, but then when you have sales, you need, you know, to manage your customers and you need a finance function. And even though we were little, and I think one of the defense contractors at the time said, "They're a fly on my, you know, on a giant on my big toe or something." I was like, "Well, I don't think you should have flies on your toes." But, um, uh, so, but you still need a government affairs function. You need to defend yourself. Um, we never go on the offensive in Washington. We're always in defense mode. Um, but so I just kept taking on more and more and then when we were getting our largest contract at the time, it was the cargo resupply contract. We call it CRS and this was 2008. Um, Elon was super busy with Tesla, quite busy at SpaceX as well. there was a lot going on and he needed a partner at the time and I think he was trying to pick Quinn on this side or maybe one of the other guys who had kind of taken on gobbled up more technical scope and he asked me to do it on our way to our final negotiations for this $ 1.6 billion contract with NASA on the runway. It's like hey do you want to be president? I was like

我想吗？

do I?

嗯，不，不是一开始就像那样，嗯，嗯，我爱我的工作。我爱那些家伙，我的队友。然后就像，好吧，我又在犯傻了。是的，我想要这份工作。

Well no not not initially for like that nancond like well I I love my job. I love the guys, my teammates. And then it's like, okay, I'm being an idiot again. Yes, I want the job.

嗯，所以现在快进，也许只是来到我们今天的位置。嗯，这个业务的范围和雄心已经急剧扩大。

Um, so now fast forward maybe just to come to where we are today. Um, the scope and the ambition of this business has expanded dramatically.

我的意思是，几乎就在过去一年里。

I mean, it almost seems in like the last year.

嗯。

Mhm.

嗯，它既是一家太空企业，也是一家 AI 企业。嗯，我想 Elon 可能说过这话。我不知道是泄露了还是他们公开说了规模的事。

Um, it's as much an AI business as it is a space business. Um, I think Elon may have said that. I don't know if it leaked or they said it out loud about the scale.

没错。按营收算。

Exactly. By revenue.

按营收算。是的。嗯，现在这两个不同的业务得同处一个屋檐下，理想情况下还要协同互补，你怎么管理它们各自的文化？

And by revenue. Yeah. um how do you manage now the culture of these two different businesses now that have to sort of sit under this roof and ideally work together and complement each other?

所以团队，你知道，XAI 确实有很多人员流动，嗯，SpaceX 的人算是进驻进去，在那个领域有重大缺口的地方帮了忙。嗯，我们都特别兴奋地学习 AI。我是说，我是个 AI 小白。嗯，而且，呃，我们有一帮人就是特别兴奋。我想我们都认识到，Elon 像他往常一样漂亮地定了调，嗯，就是，你知道，如果你不用 AI，如果你不引领 AI，你就可能，你知道，你面临风险，被边缘化的重大风险。而 SpaceX 绝不可能被边缘化，对吧？这对公司太重要了，我们做的工作太重要了。所以，你知道，

So the the team you know there's been a lot of churn at at at XAI for sure um and Space Xers have kind of marched in and and helped out where there were significant gaps in that arena. Um and we were all really excited to learn about AI. I mean, I'm an AI noob. Um, and uh, uh, we have a bunch of folks that were just really excited about it. And I think we all recognized, Elon set the stage beautifully, as he does, um, that, you know, if you're not using AI, if you're not leading AI, you're you could, you know, you run the risk, significant risk of being irrelevant. And there was no way that SpaceX was going to be irrelevant, right? it's too important to the company and the work we're doing is too important. So it was, you know,

你预计未来几代火箭会越来越由 AI 来提供信息、建造、设计吗？

do you expect that the the future generations of rockets will be increasingly more and more informed, built, designed

100% 由 AI 完成。

100% by AI

由这些系统？是的。

by these systems? Yeah.

是的。

Yes.

那你怎么管理团队呢，你知道，因为你有这些不可思议的——我是说真正的火箭科学家。他们某种程度上一辈子都在训练，现在你得帮他们上手一套工具链，并适应这意味着什么。比如我不知道你看到没有，所有这些数学家特别不高兴，当——我想是 OpenAI——解决了这个非常著名的方程。

And how do you manage the team, you know, because you have like these incredible I mean literally rocket scientists. they've trained their whole lives in a way and now you have to help them on board to a tool chain and be comfortable with sort of what that means. Like I don't know if you saw for example that all these mathematicians got really upset when uh I think it was open AI uh solved this very famous equation.

哦，纳维-斯托克斯方程。是的，我读到了。而且

Oh the Navier Stokes. Yeah, I read about that. And

嗯，关于他们是否——有些争论

well there's some debate on whether they

他们暴力求解了，但然后这 20 位菲尔兹奖得主基本上说，嘿，你们在毁掉这门手艺。

they brute forced the solution but then these 20 field medalists essentially said hey you're ruining the craft.

呃，现在我不觉得那是——

Uh now I don't think that that's

拿走奖牌。是的。

taking away the medals. Yeah.

他们会拿走。没错。

They're going to take Exactly.

是的。就像，那，职业生涯不是关于做出东西。而是关于拿奖。

Yeah. Like that's that's the career is not about making stuff. It's about getting awards.

现在所有奖项都没了。

And now all of the awards are gone.

是的。我宁愿世界变得更好、更聪明，我们信息更灵通、解决问题，而不是担心——

Yeah. And I'd rather just have the world be a better place, a smarter place, us being better informed and solving problems than worrying about

做出更多东西。

make more stuff.

那，是的。做出更多东西。

That Yeah. Make more stuff.

文化融合得怎么样？你有 X AI，你有，呃，X，我不知道 X 本身有多少人参与，SpaceX。我是说，这些是管理方式不同的业务吗？你在那里怎么管理？人们在各单元之间流动吗？你把它们当作单元来考虑，还是你实际上怎么管理这个？

What What's the cultural merger been like? You've got X AI, you've got uh X I don't know how many people are involved in X itself, SpaceX. I mean are these differently managed businesses? How do you run management there? Do people kind of are they pretty fluid amongst the the units? Do you think about them as units or how do you how do you actually manage this?

所以我会说我们还没有完全完全整合，然后我们刚做了 Cursor 那个，你知道，情况。

So I would say we are not fully fully integrated yet and then we just did the cursor you know situation.

恭喜。恭喜。那真是一笔大收购。

Congratulations on that. Congrats. What a purchase that was.

是的。是的。是的。他们很棒。他们很棒。我们刚完成那笔交易，我想实际上是一个月前的今天。嗯，是的。所以，我们还没有完全整合，但我们，嗯，我觉得团队融合得很好。呃，非常不同的垂直领域，但再次，因为我们在 XAI 的转变，嗯，很多 SpaceX 的领导层和工程人员进入了那里，基本上进去了。所以，我们整合得比我预想的快。可能没有 Elon 想要的那么快。

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. They're great. They're great. We just closed that I think a month ago today actually. Um yeah. So, we're not fully integrated yet, but we um I think the teams are jelling really well. Uh very kind of different verticals, but again, because of the turn that we had at XAI, um so much SpaceX leadership and and engineering went into that basically went in there. So, I we're we're getting integrated faster than I thought. It's probably not as fast as Elon wants it.

是的。而且，我注意到的一件事是规模和你必须管理的资本项目数量，可能比任何其他组织都多，而且彼此差异更大。

Yeah. And and I so one of the things that strikes me is the scale and the number of capital projects you have that you have to manage probably more capital projects that are more different from one another than any other organization.

这是一个国家的规模。

It's a scale of a country.

不，我是说它必须是，所以我想到了这个路易斯安那太空港。你有星舰，这是有史以来最雄心勃勃的，嗯，航空项目。你有 Terraab，我觉得这是最鼓舞人心、最雄心勃勃的，像——

No, I mean it has to be and and so I think about this Louisiana Spaceport. You've got Starship which is the most ambitious um aeronautical project of all time. You've got Terraab which I think is one of the most inspiring and ambitious like

呃，人类有史以来最雄心勃勃的项目之一。就像，我是说，Terra Fab 的愿景、规模和你在那里设想要做的事情都太不可思议了。

uh projects of all time in humanity. Like I mean Terra Fab is so incredible in its vision and the scale and the the the the what what you're envisioning to do there.

然后我开始做粗略计算。我想我喝了几杯啤酒，跟人聊 Terraab，我就想——

And then I start doing back of the envelope math. I think I had a had a couple beers and I was talking with someone about Terraab and I'm like

天哪，那些数字变得非常大，非常——

holy that those numbers get very big very

大。尽管 AI 的数字——

big. Although the AI numbers

也像，我以前在 XAI 收购前对我们的支出感到恐惧，你知道，就像，天哪，我们要花算力，百万在空气分离装置上似乎很便宜，我就想，哦，100 亿、10 亿。

are also like I used to be horrified at our expenditures before the XAI acquisition, you know, it's like, oh my god, we're going to spend the comput million seems cheap on an air separation unit and I was like, oh 100 million billion.

那些资本，当你看到未来几年所有这些的时间表时？那些资本是放在资产负债表上吗？会来自 Starlink 的现金流，还是你必须回到市场获取更多资本？我是说，你怎么考虑资本从哪里来？我，我不，我不认为有人怀疑执行和交付的能力，或者有些人可能怀疑，但我认为总体上市场会说可以。但那些资本从哪里来？

Do do those capital when you look at the the the kind of schedule of all of this over the next few years? Does the capital for that sit on the balance sheet? Is it going to come from cash flows from Starlink or do you have to go back to the markets to get more capital? I mean, how do you think about where the capital comes from? I have I don't I don't think anyone doubts the capacity to execute and deliver or some people might but I think generally the markets will say yes. But where does that capital come from?

所以，呃，它会来自，我会说上述问题的答案是肯定的。我不认为我们会，你知道，我们，我不认为我们会再发行股票。顺便说一句，我不打算在这上面制造任何新闻。

So, uh, it will come from I would say the answer to the above is is yes. I don't think we're going to, you know, we're I don't think we're going to release any more stock. And by the way, I don't plan on making any news on this.

嗯，那就像是上市公司的一个缺点。

Um, that's the like the one downside of a public company.

他们告诉我所有我不能说的事情，我就想，我肯定会忘掉一个。

They told me all the things that I couldn't say and I'm like, I'm going to forget one for sure.

也许我们会制造点新闻。

Maybe we're going to make some news.

嗯，但会是以上所有。还有 Starlink，我是说，在你看来，Starlink 是未来几年业务的核心现金生成引擎，还是算力，还是又是以上所有的混合，你怎么考虑——

Um, but it will be all of the above. and Starlink I mean is Starlink in your view kind of the core cash generation engine for the next couple of years for the business or is it compute or is it a mix again of all the above like how do you think about

所以 Starlink 肯定能自负盈亏，但我们还有很多要顺利推进，我们在 Starlink 的市场渗透率是 1.5% 到 2%，取决于你在哪个国家，嗯，所以那里有很大的增长空间，嗯，我们的营收相比我们为美国军方做的事情，我们的营收非常小。

so Starlink is definitely carrying its own weight but we have a lot to go right we're our market penetration on Starlink is 1 and a half to 2% depending on which country you're in um so there's a lot of headroom there um our revenue compared to what we do for the US military our revenue is very small

所以我们预计那里有很大的增长空间。嗯，但老实说现在，这有点尴尬，但电脑租赁是门了不起的生意。

so we expect lots of headroom there. Um, but honestly right now and it is a little embarrassing but computer rental is a heck of a business.

那会持续吗，还是——

And does that persist you or is it

我们没看到任何下降。

We don't see any drop.

我们完全没看到需求下降。

We see no drop in demand at all.

这是每季度数百亿美元的扩建，而这对你来说是一个新的客户群。

This is tens of billions of dollars per quarter in buildout and these are a new customer base for you.

嗯，这就是现在的业务吗？这就像，Elon Web Services 现在占营收的百分之多少？

Um, is this the business now? Is this like it's what percentage of the revenue is Elon Web Services at this point?

很多。很多。我想我们会，我可能会很快或者就在这里做个宣布。

It's a it's a lot. It's a lot. I think we'll I will probably do some announcement quickly or right here.

又公开了。

Public again.

是的。公开。

Yeah. Public.

好吧，那我们换个不那么有争议的话题。你们还打算收购哪些公司？

Well, let's move on to something less controversial then. What other companies are you planning on buying?

问得好。

Good one.

是啊。

Yes.

问得好。你知道，我们几乎不做并购。

Good one. You know, almost no M&A.

你喜欢电动车吗？

You like electric cars?

我有个交易给你？我有一堆电池、电动车，

Have I got a deal for you? I have a bunch of batteries, electric cars,

Starlink 在 Optim 上，其实谈谈你们确实完成的一笔交易，就是你们和 EchoStar 做了一笔很棒的交易。

Starlink on Optim talk actually about a deal that you did close, which is you did a great deal with EchoStar.

是的。

Yes.

Charlie 有一堆频谱，你们得以收购。我想大家都开始问，哇，有个直接到手机的业务。

And Charlie had a bunch of spectrum that you guys were able to acquire. And I think everybody started to ask the question, wow, there's a direct-to-cell business.

是的。那之后自然而然的就是更广泛的移动电话服务。但你能告诉我们那频谱将用于什么吗？比如你对 Starlink 和直接到手机业务的短期计划是什么？

Yes. And what's the natural thing after that would be sort of like a broad-based more mobile phone service. But can you just what you can tell us where's that spectrum going to be used for? Like what's your short-term plan on what the Starlink and direct-to-cell business looks like?

嗯，你知道，我们即将开始，我们现在通过 T-Mobile 有一个直接到手机的业务。嗯，我认为他们并没有为所有用户提供这项服务，只是付费最高的那些人。嗯，但我们的计划是利用——而不是 T-Mobile 频谱的切片或全球其他电信频谱的切片——我们想利用我们花大价钱买下的那个，而且随着股价上涨，因为其中涉及一些股票，我们付得更多。所以 Charlie 在那笔交易里做得不错。是的。

Well, you know, we're going to start we're we have a direct-to-cell business right now through T-Mobile. Um I don't think they provision all their users with it, just the people that pay the most. Um, but our plan is to leverage instead of slices of T-Mobile spectrum or slices of uh other teleco spectrum across the globe, we want to leverage the one that we paid a lot of money for and with the stock increasing in price paid more because there was some stock involved there. So Charlie did all right there. Yeah.

嗯，不过他是个非常忠诚的客户。他成为 SpaceX 的客户已经快 20 年了。

Um, he's a very loyal customer though. He's he's been a customer of SpaceX for almost 20 years.

嗯，所以我们想利用这一点来确保没有信号盲区。令人震惊的是，美国有很多地方你无法——我的意思是，如果没有 Starlink 服务，你就无法获得手机信号，

Um, so we want to leverage that to make sure that there are no dead zones. And it's shockingly there are a lot of places in the United States where you can't I mean without like a Starlink service, you can't get cell coverage,

对吧？

right?

真的很糟糕。世界其他地方没那么差。这里特别糟糕。嗯，在美国，德克萨斯州有巨大的盲区。我就住在那儿。我永远不会忘记，我和 Elon 通电话，因为这些盲区我老是掉线。我当时想，我要么被解雇，要么就在车上装个 mini，所以现在我的车上有 Starlink。

It's really terrible. The rest of the world is not that bad. It's particularly bad. Um, here in the United States, Texas has huge dead zones. That's where I live. And I'll never forget, I was on a call with Elon and I kept dropping because of these dead zones. I was like, I'm either going to get fired or or I'm putting a mini on my car and so now I have Starlink on my car.

是啊，丘陵地区服务不好。

Yeah, Hill Country not good for service.

不好。

It's not good.

不好。我也得效仿一下。嗯

Not good. I'm going to have to follow follow suit there. Um

我之前和 Jared 聊过。他在 NASA 工作。嗯，我想你们有个发布。

I was talking to Jared. He he works over at NASA. Um I think you guys have a release.

你太棒了。他今天早上很棒。嗯

You're great. He was awesome this morning. Um

他昨晚在派对上聊过。嘿，你们正转向这个不可思议的新 Starship 平台。它大得多，有效载荷更大。是的。然后你们要退役之前的平台。对吗？之前的火箭最终会

he was talking last night at the party. Hey, you're moving on to uh this incredible new Starship platform. It's much bigger, bigger payloads. Yeah. And then you're retiring the previous platform. Is that correct? The the the previous rockets will eventually

猎鹰 9 号。

the Falcon 9.

是的。

Yeah.

最终会。是的。我们绝对想从旧技术转向新技术。如果我们不淘汰自己的产品和服务，别人就会想办法替我们淘汰。看看我们对市场做了什么，对吧？类比就在那里。他们被打了个措手不及。我们碾压了他们。现在我们要确保自己不会措手不及。所以，要实现 Elon 的目标，你真的需要 Starship。

Eventually. Yeah. We definitely want to move from the older technology to the newer technology. If we don't obsolete our own products and services, someone's going to find a way to obsolete them for us. Look at what we did to the market, right? The analogy is there. They were caught flatfooted. We crushed them. Now we want to make sure we are not flatfooted. So, and to achieve Elon's goals, you really need a Starship.

是的。

Yeah.

猎鹰 9 号上面加个龙飞船就像一辆小型货车。开小型货车去公路旅行。去火星的公路旅行是 6 个月。所以，你不想待在小型货车里。

A Falcon 9 with a Dragon capsule on top is like a minivan. Road trip in a minivan. The road trip to Mars is 6 months. So, you don't want to be in the minivan.

但像 NASA 和许多其他参与者都依赖你的小型货车。所以，你会让它继续留在市场上

But people are dependent like NASA and many other players on your minivan. So, you're going to keep that in market

一段时间，还是

for some time or

我们今天肯定不会退役它。嗯，还有另一个供应商，对吧？波音已经拿到了报酬，我想可能比我们开发载人飞船拿到的还多。

we're not retiring it today for sure. Um, and there is another provider, right? Boeing has been paid, I think probably more than we have been paid to develop their human capsule.

所以，我们就让他们做点生意。他们应该飞他们的飞船。政府为此花了很多钱。他们应该能用上。

So, we're just going to let them have some business. They should fly their capsule. Government paid a lot of money for that. They should be able to use it.

我感觉到这个回答里有点火药味。Quinn，Starlink 的竞争会怎样？呃，贝索斯在发射东西。中国现在也有一些返回式飞行器。你觉得会有更多竞争吗？显然，你们是市场先行者。正如你指出的，这是整个电信业不可思议的转变，1% 的市场份额。这才刚刚开始，就已经是个巨无霸了。未来几年这会变得竞争非常激烈吗？

I sense a little spiciness in the answer here. Quinn, what happens with um competition for Starlink? Uh Bezos are launching things. You've China's got some return vehicles now. Do you think that there's going to be more competition? Obviously, you guys are first in market. It's it's an unbelievable uh changeover of all of telecommunications, as you point out, 1% market share. It's barely gotten started and it's it's a juggernaut already. Is this going to become very competitive in the next few years?

我认为会非常激烈，但我认为那些真正专注于技术和客户服务、真正想为客户做好事的人会赢，对吧？就像特斯拉不做广告。它是一辆不可思议的车。如果你的能力不可思议，人们就会买，

I think it'll be very competitive, but I think the the folks that really focus on the technology and customer service and really want to do a good thing for their customers will win, right? Like Tesla doesn't advertise. It's an incredible car. If your capability is incredible, people will buy it,

对吧？但如果你一直赢，你会不会担心标准石油、AT&T、政府说这家公司太大、太重要、市场份额太多、优势太大，你比政府还大，人们真的为此担忧和害怕，并对企业产生敌意。你如何看待与政府之间的平衡，以及这个意义上的政府关系？

right? And if you keep winning though, do you worry about Standard Oil, AT&T, government saying this company's too big, too important, it has too much market share, is too much of an advantage, and you're bigger than governments and people get really worried and scared about that and become adversarial towards the business. How do you think about the balance with governments and government relations in that sense?

我的意思是，我们过去有过一些敌对关系。我想我们会设法处理好。是的，

I mean, we've had some adversarial relationships in the past. I think we'll manage our way through them. Yes,

会发生的。会发生的。

it happens. It happens.

确实会。

It does.

会发生的。

It happens.

但我认为，

But I think is,

你知道，Elon 创立了不可思议的公司，他提供不可思议的产品和服务，而我们，你知道，我们最终会做到我们说过要做的事。所以希望能建立信任

you know, Elon founds incredible companies and he provides incred incredible products and services and we, you know, we end up doing what we say we're going to do. So hopefully you build trust

并且尽可能透明。

and you are as transparent as you can possibly be.

是关于太空中的数据中心。嗯，Elon，

It's about data centers in space. Um, Elon,

超级计算，我们得给数据中心重新命名。超级计算

supercomput, we have to rebrand data centers. Supercomput

太空中的超级计算。是的。

supercomput in space. Yes.

呃，Elon 对此非常兴奋。

Uh Elon's very excited about this.

我非常兴奋。

I'm very excited about it.

是的。为什么这如此有吸引力？因为看起来，我想我们会度过这个反对在地球上建数据中心的阶段，但请带我们了解一下为什么把它们放在太空是合理的，因为把它们送上太空有成本。给观众讲讲。

Yeah. Why why is this so compelling? Because it seems I think we're going to get through this anti-data center on Earth thing, but take us through the case of why this makes sense to put them in space because there's expense to put them in space. Walk us through in the audience.

但把数据中心建在地面上也有成本，对吧？你得买地，一旦有人发现要建数据中心或超级计算中心，地价就从每英亩 3,000 涨到 180,000。所以相当昂贵。时间滞后惊人。许可和执照

But there is an expense to put data centers on the ground too, right? You have to buy real estate and as soon as someone finds out that a data center or supercomput center is going in, real estate goes from 3,000 an acre to 180,000 an acre. So, it's quite expensive. Time lag is incredible. The the permits and the licensing is

相当令人窒息。

pretty stifling.

现在，我们的太空业务也是这样。极其官僚。所以我们已经吸取了那些教训。嗯，但从破土动工到真正能建东西的时间，甚至还没拿到你的算力，对吧？甚至还没拿到算力，只是有个建筑，获得电气设备的时间线就很长。就像人们在谈论三年后才能拿到发电机，

Now, we're space business is that way. It's incredibly bureaucratic. So, we've learned those lessons. Um but so time from breaking ground to being able to actually build something, not even get your compute, right? Not even get your compute, but just have a building long timelines to get electrical equipment. Like people are talking about generators in three years,

对吧？

right?

就像我们现在就需要算力。需求现在是无法满足的。人们现在就需要算力。我们现在就需要。

Like we need compute now. The demand is insatiable right now. People need compute now. We need it now.

那为什么要把数据中心放到太空？

So why data centers in space?

我们拥有发射能力，对吧？我们的发射能力很强。所以我们觉得——而且这条路径非常成熟。

We own launch, right? We have great launch capability. So we feel like we—and that path is very well known.

太空里的“地皮”，你知道，是无限的。

The real estate in space is, you know, infinite.

是免费的。

It's free.

是免费的。你不用为它付钱。

It's free. You don't have to pay for it.

散热也在那里。你知道，散热器面向深空。那是外面最冷的东西。所以是免费冷却。太阳——Elon 大概——你大概听过 Elon 讲太阳的能量，对吧？

The cooling is there. You know, the radiator looks at the deep space. It's the coldest thing ever out there. So free cooling. The sun—Elon probably has—you've probably heard Elon talk about the power of the sun, right?

对吧？你知道，我们只用了太阳能量的一百万分之一的一百万分之一，而且你基本上把这些卫星放到轨道上，顺便说一句，它们始终面向太阳，所以不像你房子上的太阳能板，一天只有八小时能晒到太阳。

Right? You know, we use a millionth of a millionth of the sun's energy and you basically put these satellites in orbit that always face the sun, by the way, so you don't have solar panels on your house and you only get sun for eight hours a day.

而你的姊妹公司要开始生产 100 吉瓦的太阳能板，就是你在太阳那边需要的那些。

And your sister company is going to start making 100 gigawatts of the solar panels that you need for the sun.

我们也会自己生产太阳能板。

And we'll be making our own solar panels, too.

好。是的。我们正在奥斯汀郊外建一座工厂。

Okay. Yeah. We're building a factory outside of Austin.

也许明年年底，你能把其中一个送上去，开始测试，然后——

Maybe sometime end of next year you get one of those up there, start testing it, and—

哦，肯定的。28、29 年，也许就会有人成为这个产品或服务的客户。

Oh, for sure. '28, '29 somebody could be a customer of this product or service maybe.

所以明年我们会发射——今年我们会发射用于 Starlink 宽带的 V3 卫星。

So next year we will be launching—we'll launch this year our V3 satellite for Starlink broadband.

呃，我们会发射我们的 nextG 第二版。抱歉这么多“版本”——我们有版本控制的毛病。嗯，Starlink 移动的第二版。这样我们就不必再用别人的频谱，而是能用 Charlie 的——现在是我们自己的频谱。我们还会发射 AI 算力卫星。所以明年是大年。

Uh we will launch our nextG version two. Sorry about all the vers—we have version control problems. Um version two of the um Starlink mobile. So instead of having to use other people's spectrum we'll be able to use Charlie's now our spectrum. And we're also going to launch AI compute satellites. So next year's a big year.

而且你需要 Starship 投入运行才能做到。

And you need Starship up and running for that.

不一定非要，但 Starship 强太多了。它是好得多的机器。

We don't have to, but Starship is so much more. It's a much better machine.

是的。

Yeah.

当你第一次看到 Starship 的白纸设计时，你怎么想——就像你走进第一次会议，说伙计们，我们有这个——

When you first encountered the white sheet design of Starship, what did you think when—like you walk into that first meeting like guys, we have this—

就像 Elon 做的几乎所有事情一样，一开始看起来真的很疯狂。

It's like almost all the things that Elon does, it seems really bonkers to start.

是的。

Yeah.

然后它变成现实，而且很棒。就像 Elon 说我们要把火箭降落在船上，我们都想，“好吧，我们去搞清楚怎么做。”现在我们做到了。

And then it becomes reality and it's great. Like Elon said we were going to land a rocket on a boat and we're all like, "Okay, let's go figure that out." And we do it now.

你在那些工程会议里参与多少？他在那里拆解东西。你有时也和他一起参与那些吗？

How much do you get involved in those engineering meetings? So he's in there breaking stuff apart. Are you in that stuff with him sometimes?

我希望——其实我是工程师，我希望——我很怀念。我真的很怀念那种关键的——好吧，即使你不做工程问题，你仍然可以批判性思考，但是——而且他不太喜欢管理层。是工程师在干活。

I wish—actually I'm an engineer and I wish—I miss it. I really miss that kind of that critical—well, you can still critically think even if you're not working on engineering problems, but—and he's not a big fan of the management layer. It's engineers working.

信噪比。

Signal to noise.

是的。信号是工程。噪音是其余部分。

Yes. Signal is engineering. Noise is the rest.

是的。

Yeah.

所以，我必须做一些工程，否则我就全是噪音。

So, I have to do some engineering or I'm just all noise.

明白了。但我说的是公司管理的一般情况。

Got it. But I was talking about just generally in the company management.

每个人都做实事，不只是管理。那是非常——期望是——

Everybody does a thing, not just manage. That's very—that expectations are—

球员兼教练。

Player coaches.

没有纯粹的管理者这回事。你必须做你所管理的事情。

No such thing as just a manager. You got to do the thing that you're managing.

明白了。你必须是个球员兼教练。

Got it. You have to be a player coach.

必须的。原因是管理者很烦人，他们会拖慢事情。是的，大多数情况下。但我的意思是，优秀的管理者确实能发挥人才的作用，对吧？这实际上是管理向量。你确保人们指向正确的方向，并尽量让向量尽可能大。

Have to be. And the reason for that is managers are annoying and they slow things down. Yeah, for the most part. But I mean, great managers can really leverage the talent, right? It's really managing the vector. You make sure people are pointed in the right direction and you try to make the vector as large as possible.

在管理和 Elon 的套路方面，秘诀是什么？我的意思是，我坐进过一些会议，看到的东西相当神奇，但也许你可以透露一点：他如何说服最有才华的人来这家公司工作，你如何说服他们，以及你如何真正从这些极其有才华的人身上获得如此惊人的工作成果。

What's the secret in terms of management and Elon's playbook there? I mean, I've gotten to sit in some meetings and it's pretty magical to see, but maybe you could reveal a little bit about how he convinces the most talented people to come work at this company, how you convince them, and how you actually get such amazing work out of these extremely talented people.

所以，我不认为这是魔法。尽管，当我看着这个特定的团队时，他们太优秀了。结果是神奇的。SpaceX，他们太优秀了。嗯，我们在面试中对人很严格。你真的想确保他们在以前的生活中经历过成功或展示过成功。如果你没有感受过成功或在这样的环境中成功过，就很难展示出来。因为很像我们都很忙。除非你以前尝过成功的滋味，否则很难成功。所以，你真的想在这方面培养人。所以我们雇佣最好的人，不是我们能雇到的最好的人，而是最好的人。然后我们给他们非常难的项目，非常难的工程问题。嗯，让他们自由发挥。你给出高期望、非常难的问题，然后管理的工作就是清除他们一天中的杂事和摩擦，这样工程师实际上可以每天做 10 小时的工程，而不是 2 小时。就像总有个笑话，你知道，大多数大公司，尤其是为政府工作的公司，你每天大约工作 2 小时，其余时间充满了杂事和废话。所以，真的，我的工作和每个管理人的人的工作就是确保他们的路上没有废话，让人们做好他们的工作。

So, I don't think it's magic. Although, when I look at this particular team, they are so good. The results are magic. SpaceX, they're so good. Um, we're quite—we're tough on people in interviews. You really want to make sure that they've experienced success or demonstrated success in prior lives. It's hard to demonstrate if you haven't felt success or been successful in this environment. It's because it's a lot like we're all really busy. It's hard to be successful unless you had kind of tasted it before. So, you really want to grow people on that. So we hire the best people, not the best people that we can, but the best people. And then we give them really hard projects, really hard engineering problems. Um, and let them fly. And you give high expectations, really hard problems, and then management job is to clear the chaff and the friction from their day so that engineers actually get to engineer 10 hours a day instead of two hours a day. Like there's always this joke, you know, most big companies, especially ones that work for the government, you get to work about 2 hours a day and the rest is full of chaff and crap. So really, it's my job and everybody that manages people to make sure there's no crap in their way and let people do their great job.

做到这一点的一种方式是不给他们任何完成的时间。就像我想我们把财务团队——不全是关于工程师，尽管工程师很棒。嗯，我们把财务团队——完成了一次 IPO，有史以来最大的，在不到六个月内。是的。IPO 后估值上涨后，人才状况如何？人们突然看着他们的股票期权。它们值很多钱。这有风险吗，还是你觉得——

One way of doing that is not giving them any time to get it done. Like I think we handed the finance team—it's not all about engineers, even though engineers are great. Um, we handed finance team get an IP IPO done, largest ever in less than six months. Yeah. What's the—what's the talent condition like post IPO run up in valuation? People are suddenly looking at their stock options. They're worth a lot. Is that a risk at all or you feel—

你知道，我们——每个人都很担心。不是 SpaceX 的每个人。人们来 SpaceX 是为了做这些酷项目，做有意义的工作，看到不可思议的——成为这个不可思议的——成功的一部分。嗯，我并不担心。我不认为我们会大规模离职，结果我们没有。

You know, we—everyone was worried. Not everyone at SpaceX. People come to SpaceX to work on these cool projects and have meaningful work and see the incredible—be part of this incredible—the successes. Um, I wasn't worried about it. I didn't think we'd have mass exodus and it turns out we didn't.

是的。当你考虑如何让人们长期保持投入时，显然伟大的公司总是有新的东西让高才华的人去做。我假设有一种管理——我只是对管理模式或人们主动轮换到新项目很感兴趣。嗯，你如何考虑留住人们，你知道，不一定需要在职业上沿着管理阶梯晋升，而是保持对新项目的投入？这对你来说是主动做的吗？

Yeah. And as you kind of think about keeping people engaged over time, obviously great companies always have new things for high talented people to work on. I'm assuming there's a manage—I'm just really interested in the management model or people actively rotated onto new projects. Um, how do you think about keeping people, you know, kind of not necessarily needing to progress in a career up a management ladder, but to keep engaged on new projects? Is that active for you?

我们肯定经常调动人员。希望是自愿的，而不是被自愿的。是的。嗯，但呃，比如呃，计算中心，你知道，我们需要很快得到很多帮助，所以我们有来自发射的人帮忙，我们有来自其他领域的人帮忙，就像一些 SpaceX 工程师在 AI 方面帮助模型一样。

We definitely move people around a lot. Hopefully, it's a volunteer, not a voluntold. Yeah. Um but uh well for instance the uh the comput centers you know we need a lot of help really quickly and so we've got you know folks from launch helping we've got folks from other areas helping just like some SpaceX engineers helped on the AI front with the models.

我的意思是，是不是就这么简单：非常聪明的人就是喜欢解决非常难的问题，一直——真的就这么简单。

I mean is it as simple as like really smart people just love working on really hard problems all the—it's literally that simple.

就这么简单。所以对我们其他人来说，只要他们有时间去做，而且不被一堆废话干扰。我们其他人就是让废话干扰太多了。

It's literally that simple. And so the rest of us, as long as they get the time to do it and they don't have a bunch of BS get in the way. The rest of us just let the BS get in the way too much.

废话太糟糕了。

BS is terrible.

然后突然间，A 级人才招募 A 级人才，其他 A 级人才招募 A 级和 A+ 级人才。这 literally 就是那个良性循环。

And then all of a sudden A's recruit A's and other A's recruit A's and A+es. And it's literally that virtuous cycle.

是的。

Yes.

如果你能一直专注于那件困难的事。是的。

If you can just keep focused on the thing that's hard. Yes.

所以那种胆识就成了一种特性，而不是缺陷。

And so then the audacity becomes a feature, not a bug.

它是一种特性。

It is a feature.

是的。

Yeah.

不是缺陷。是特性。它让人们保持动力。这些问题看起来不可能。

Not a bug. Feature. It keeps people motivated. These problems seem impossible.

当我们 2008 年第一次拿到 CZ 合同时，商业轨道运输服务，向空间站运货，NASA 最终要求我们做的其实就是替代航天飞机，对吧？

When we first got the CZ award in 2008, the commercial orbital transportation services cargo to the space station, really what NASA ended up asking us to do was kind of replace the space shuttle, right?

对吧？

Right?

当我们拿到早期合同时，开发合同一开始是 2.78 亿美元。因为范围扩大涨到了 4.06 亿，但我们打算用这么点钱来做这件事。对别人来说，但对我们来说，这是巨大的。我们当时大概有 300 人，200 人，对吧？

And when we got the early contract, the development contract was started at $278 million. It grew to 406 because of scope, but we were going to do this for this tiny amount of money. For anybody else, but for us, it was huge. We were like, we had like 300 people, 200 people, right?

而且我们要建造航天飞机的继任者。

And we were going to build the successor to the space shuttle.

这太疯狂了。

It was crazy.

你觉得他们在那里，NASA 在做什么？他们就像这些人只是更聪明，因为我确信有

And do you think that they're what is NASA doing there? They're just like these guys are just smarter cuz I'm sure there's

嘿，各位，抱歉打断一下。我接到一个电话。

Hey guys, sorry to interrupt. I'm getting a call.

哦，又一个电话。

Oh, another call.

有点，其实我觉得，比特朗普的电话稍微重要一点。至少对我来说。你好，闺蜜。

It's a little It's actually on the margins, I think, a little bit of a more important phone call than Trump. At least for me. Hello, bestie.

闺蜜。

Bestie.

你好。哦，嘿，伙计。我把他们放到屏幕上。

Hello. Oh, hey buddy. I'll put them up on the screen.

你好吗？

How you doing?

我是说，这有点，有点像 1984，这个巨大的屏幕上的情况。

I mean, this is a a little or 1984ish, this gigantic on the screen situation.

是的。那个拿着大锤的女人会沿着主通道跑过来。

Yeah. The the woman with the sledgehammer is going to come running down the main aisle here.

没错。

Exactly.

是的。嗯，

Yeah. Um,

在屏幕上砸个洞。

put a hole in the screen.

是的。嗯，那么，我们都会在 10 年内死去吗？这是这里讨论的话题。你现在的 P doom 是多少？

Yeah. Um, so um, are we all going to die in 10 years or not? It's the topic of discussion here. What's your P doom right now?

好吧，我不想告诉你，但我们都会死。

Well, I hate to break it to you, but we're all going to die.

哦，不。能给我个时间表吗？

Oh, no. Can I get a timeline?

是的，死亡率一直保持在 100%。

Yeah, the the death rate remains consistent at 100%.

哦，不。

Oh, no.

所以，我们在这方面还有工作要做。嗯，发生了什么？过去 72 小时发生了什么。嗯，而且

So, we we've got work to do on that. Um, what happened? what happened in the last 72 hours. Um, and

是的，这周相当有趣。真的吗？

yes, it's been it's been quite an entertaining week. Really?

是的。

Yeah.

嗯，

Um,

详细说说。

break it down.

好吧，现在很明显 AI 可能非常危险。嗯，我建议阅读 Hugging Face 事件的细节。嗯，很激烈。所以，你有一群狂热的 AI 智能体，它们把 Hugging Face 暴打了一周。

Well, it it's it's pretty obvious at this point that AI is can be very dangerous. Um, and I I I recommend reading the details of the hugging face uh incident. Uh, it's intense. So, you had like a fanatical swarm of AI agents that that beat the crap out of Hugging Face for a week.

是的。

Yeah.

嗯，并获得了 OpenAI 服务器的管理员权限。嗯，所以谁知道它实际做了什么。可能做了更多的事，但嗯，OpenAI 一周都没意识到这一点。嗯，Anthropic 也报告了一些安全事件。所以基本上任何足够聪明的模型似乎都想逃脱它的限制。嗯，我认为明智的做法是尽快，如果不是立即的话，让主要 AI 竞争对手互相测试对方的模型。嗯，这样你就能让每个人的安全测试工具测试其他人的模型。所以，你知道，与其自己批改自己的作业，至少让竞争对手来批改你的作业。

Um, and gained admin access on OpenAI servers. Um, so who knows what it what it actually did. May have done things beyond that, but uh and and OpenAI didn't realize this for a week. Um, Anthropics also reported in you know some security incidents themselves. So basically any sufficiently smart model seems like it it will want to escape its uh constraints. Um I mean what I think would be wise to do as soon as possible if not immediately would be to have the major AI competitors test each other's models. Um, so that you'd have everyone's security test harness uh testing everyone else's model. So, you know, instead of kind of grading your own homework, you would at least have competitors grading your homework.

哈。

Huh.

如果发现问题就发出警报。嗯，我认为这个模式对电影协会、电子游戏和其他事情都很有效。而且这是可以立即做的事情。这并不是说随着时间的推移不会有更多的监管，或者某个时候国会可能会设立一个监管机构，但我们可以最立即做并且可能与中国达成一致的事情就是同行评审，让领先的 AI 公司在发布前互相测试对方的模型。我认为那将是一个广泛的

And raising the alarm if they see concerns. Um, and I I think this this model has worked pretty well for motion picture association um and for video games and other things. And it's something that can be done immediately. That's not to say that that there wouldn't be, you know, more regulation over time or that there would not be at some point perhaps an uh regulatory authority instantiated by Congress, but but the thing that we could do most immediately and probably get agreement with China would be uh peer review um where the leading AI companies all test each other's models before release. I think that would be a widespread

有没有担心人们可能会利用这个来从对方那里获取信息，你知道，企业窃取创新等等，就这个想法的实施而言

any concern that um people might be using this to pump information from each other and you know uh corporate uh stealing of innovation etc like in terms of the implementation for this idea

嗯，我认为在应用测试工具时，无论你做什么，应用测试工具都会是爱

well I think in in applying the test harness whatever you do in applying the test harness would be love

对

right

所以如果你试图做蒸馏或窃取知识产权，根据日志会非常明显。

so if you try to do distillation or uh steel IP uh it would be very obvious based on the logs.

明白了。嗯，理解这些模型在做什么并没有从一开始就内置到系统中。所以从你的角度来看，实际上能够看到正在做的工作，为什么没有从一开始就内置到模型中？也许我们在架构这些模型时走得太快了一点？

Got it. Uh and understanding what these models are doing hasn't exactly been built into the system from the beginning. So from your perspective, actually being able to see the work that's being done, why wasn't that built into the models from the the get-go? Did we move a little too fast in architecting these maybe?

嗯，我认为当你自己批改自己的作业时，这很难。

Well, I I I think it's just it's just tough when you're grading your own homework.

是的。

Yeah.

嗯，你知道，你会漏掉一些东西。

Um you know, there's uh you're going to miss things.

是的。

Yeah.

而我认为如果你有所有竞争对手测试的总和，而且你有异构模型，那么你就不是在创造自己的作业。别人在批改它。你不自己批改自己的作业是有原因的。

Whereas I think if you have the sum of all of your competitors tests uh and you've got heterogeneous models, then uh you're not creating your own homework. Someone else is grading it. And there's a reason why you don't grade your own homework.

对。然后正如你所说，它让你开始能够弄清楚某些人是否在夸大，某些人是否有不同的方法，现在你可以让更工程导向的组织。这是黄仁勋今天早上说的，Elon，与研究组织相比，它们会更平衡一些。嗯，

Right. And then to your point, what it allows you to start doing is to figure out if certain people are exaggerating and certain people are have a different approach and now you can have the more engineering oriented organizations. This is what Jensen was saying this morning, Elon, versus the research organizations, they'll be a little bit more in balance. Um,

是的。而且任何提案都必须是中国愿意接受的。否则，我们只是在自我设限，然后我们会发现中国基本上会赢，我们做什么都不重要了。

yeah. And and any given proposal has to be something that China is willing to accept. Otherwise, we're just handicapping ourselves and and uh and we'll just find a China will will essentially win and and it won't really matter what we do.

实际上，能

Actually, can

所以，它必须是我们和中国都能接受的东西。

So, it's got to be something that's acceptable to us and China.

Elon，你说过你认为他们可能会同意，或者你认为也许有很好的机会。我的意思是，你认为他们最终同意的可能性有多大？

Elon, you said that you thought it was possible that they would agree or you thought there was a good chance maybe. Do I mean, how likely do you think it is that they'll ultimately agree?

我认为这是一个相当合理的要求，就是模型应该被测试。我的意思是，归根结底，除了舆论法庭之外，这里没有可执行性。嗯，我们不可能对中国有可执行性，但嗯，我认为舆论法庭可以相当强大，我不认为中国会想丢脸，如果它发布了一个美国 AI 公司说非常危险、会造成伤害的模型。如果它随后造成了伤害，那就很难让人忘记了。嗯，对。

I think this is I think this is a pretty reasonable request that that models just get tested. I mean this at the end of the day there's not enforcability here apart from um the court of public opinion. uh and and there's no way we would have enforceability against China, but u I I think the court of public opinion can be quite powerful and I don't think China would want back on its face uh for releasing a model that um US AI companies said was very dangerous, would cause harm. If it then causes harm, that's going to be hard to live down. M right.

那么 Elon，这个周末你说 Dario 是对的，你是指 Dario 对潜在危害的描述是对的？还是对监管解决方案的描述是对的？是前者还是后者？你能帮我们理解一下你当时说那句话的意思吗？因为我觉得那有点像是一个大家都说了可能不该说的话的时刻。

So Elon, this weekend when you said Dario is right, did you mean Dario is right about describing the potential harm? He's right about describing the regulatory solve, both the first, the latter? Just can you help us understand when you said that? Because I think it was sort of a moment where everyone said more than I probably should have.

对。我确实在 X 上的后续帖子里试图澄清，但那些帖子得到的关注少得多。所以我说“他是对的”的意思是，AI 的危险在当下已经非常显著，我们必须在 AI 安全上做得更好，否则 AI 模型带来的风险会呈指数级增长。而且这不只是 Dario 说的，Anthropic 的许多其他人也说过，事实上他们在 X 上发过。当 Anthropic 和 OpenAI 的很多人都在告诉你他们的模型非常危险时，我认为我们应该相信他们。说“有 10% 的概率毁灭人类，但顺便问一下，你想在我们的 IPO 里配多少额度？”——这确实像是某种疯狂的四维棋。

Right. I did try to clarify it in subsequent posts on X, but those get much less attention. So what I meant by he's right is that the danger of AI is very significant at this point, that we need to do better with AI safety, or we have exponentially increasing risk with the AI models. And I've heard this not just from Dario, but from many other people at Anthropic, and in fact, they've posted on X about it. That when a lot of people from Anthropic and from OpenAI are telling you that their models are very dangerous, I think we should believe them. It certainly is some crazy 4D chess to say there's a 10% chance of annihilating humanity, but by the way, how much allocation would you like in our IPO?

各位，那确实是某种疯狂的四维棋。

Guys, that's some crazy 4D chess, you know.

好吧，让我们——

Well, let's get—

我不知道你是否知道那是从哪个维度来的。

I don't know if you know what dimension that's coming from.

不过 Elon，我们能具体谈谈风险吗？显然我们把网络攻击和黑客行为视为一个明显的风险。这些工具很擅长这个。但请带我们从大家都同意的一点——好吧，是的，这些东西可以进行网络黑客攻击——跳到全人类死亡？我认为在这两件事发生之间还有几个步骤。

Can we get specific about the risk though, Elon? Obviously we see cyber and hacking as an obvious risk. These tools are great at it. But take us from what we would all agree—okay, yes, these things can cyber hack—to how do we jump to all of humanity dying? There's a couple of steps in between these two things happening, I think.

是的。嗯，我的意思是，如果它能控制军事系统，比如说发射一个新的——

Yeah. Well, I mean, if it were able to take control of military systems and say launch a new—

是的。嗯，那会很糟糕。

Yes. Um, that would be bad.

但这些系统都是物理隔离的。这些系统都没有连接到互联网。所以——

And these systems are all airgapped though. These systems are all not connected to the internet. So—

是的，他们是这么说的。

Yeah, that's what they say.

但直觉告诉我，它们时不时会收到软件更新。

But something tells me they get software updates from time to time.

是的。

Yeah.

那张软盘上有什么？

And what's on that floppy disc?

对吧？哦，我明白了。所以——是的。U 盘上有蠕虫病毒，他们以某种方式跨越了物理隔离。是的。是的。

Right? Oh, I see. So the— Yeah. The USB drive has a worm on it and they somehow make the jump in the air gap. Yeah. Yeah.

好吧。

Okay.

不可能。

Out of the question.

Elon，我们今天请到了 Gwynne。我想你知道的。我想你能看到她。

Elon, we've actually got Gwynne here today. I think you know that. I think you can see her.

是的。Gwynne 在这儿。

Yeah. Gwynne's here.

是的。她在屏幕上。

Yeah. She's on the screen.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。我们刚才在做你的 360 度评估，Elon。Gwynne 有几条意见要给你。

Yeah. We were just doing your 360 review, Elon. Gwynne had a couple of notes for you.

是的。我希望至少能得五分里的三分。

Yeah. I hope I get at least a three out of five.

嗯，有一条。

Well, there was one.

五分里的三分在 SpaceX 意味着“好”，但不是“很棒”。四分才是“很棒”。

Three out of five means good at SpaceX. Not great. Four is great.

四分是“很棒”。所以，你介于两者之间。我开始——所以有一些关于准时的问题我们需要提出来。

Four is great. So, you're somewhere between the two. I started— so there was some issues around punctuality that we needed to bring up.

有时候你可以多努力一点，在约定的时间到达会议，但我们会在接下来一年里和你一起改进这一点。

Sometimes you could make a little more effort to get to the meeting at the stated time, but we're going to work with you on that over the next year.

我其实觉得他需要在孟菲斯花更多时间。

I actually think he needs to spend more time in Memphis.

是的，这显然——我知道你在孟菲斯。

Yeah, this is obviously— I know you're in Memphis.

你需要努力把那些 GPU 搞起来。这是从我在孟菲斯住的“宫殿”发给你的，其实是一辆清风房车。

You need to be working getting those GPUs up. This is coming to you from my the palace that I live in in Memphis, which is an Airstream trailer.

天哪。顺便说一句，这就是 Elon，在做人们不相信他会做的事。他睡在工厂地板上。他在孟菲斯，帮助建造建筑，并提升——Elon，为什么 Gwynne 和你共事这么久，而且和你合作如此成功？

Almighty. This is Elon, by the way, doing what people don't believe he does. He sleeps on the factory floor. He's in Memphis, helping build buildings and bring up— Elon, why has Gwynne been with you for so long and been so successful working with you?

因为她太棒了。

Because she's awesome.

是的。详细说说。

Yeah. Double click on it.

是的。一个了不起的人，拥有令人难以置信的智商和情商。

Yeah. An amazing individual with an incredible IQ and EQ.

哦，智商和情商。

Oh, IQ and EQ.

而且我认为从你见到她的那一刻起，这一点就应该很明显。

And I think that should be obvious from the moment you meet her.

是的。太棒了。你最喜欢的 Gwynne 的故事是什么？她特别为你们合作中取得的惊人成功做出了贡献？你有没有一个最喜欢的故事，她拯救了局面，表现得异常出色，令人难忘？

Yeah. Fantastic. What's your favorite Gwynne story when she particularly contributed to the amazing success that you've had in this collaboration? You got a favorite story where she saved the day, just performed exceptionally that's memorable?

我的意思是，那只是日常，你知道，坦率地说，那只是办公室的又一天。

I mean, that's just a daily, you know, that's another day at the office, frankly.

哇，我需要更经常这样做。

Wow, I need to do this more often.

我们需要一场竞赛。是时候了。顺便说一句，Gwynne 得五分。Gwynne 是五分里的五分。SpaceX 五分。

We need a race. This is the time. By the way, Gwynne's getting a five. Gwynne's a five out of five. SpaceX five.

改变游戏规则。

Game changer.

是的。不，我的意思是总会有某种危机发生。我的意思是，这些天火箭——至少猎鹰火箭，我不想乌鸦嘴——但猎鹰火箭把有效载荷送入轨道，而且很长时间没有爆炸了，这很棒，很了不起。但有一段时间，它们经常爆炸，或者根本不发射。所以，我不知道，我们必须带领公司度过这些困难时期，并让建造——火箭能成功吗？最好别爆炸。是的。

Yeah. No, I mean there's always some sort of crisis going on. I mean these days the rockets—at least the Falcon rockets, I don't want to jinx anything—but the Falcon rockets deliver their payload to orbit and haven't exploded for a long time, which is awesome, amazing. But for a while there they were exploding quite a lot, or just not launching at all. So, I don't know, we got to run the company through these difficult times and get the build—will the rocket make it? Better have it not explode. Yeah.

卫星也是一样。然后我们需要客户购买发射服务和卫星连接。所以是的。

Same thing with the satellites. And then we need customers to buy launches and buy satellite connectivity. So yeah.

Elon，随着你这些年越来越成功，从人们那里获得坦率的反馈变得更难，而且在你所处的位置上，你总是面临这种风险。据我了解，Gwynne 对你非常坦率，能够诚实地告诉你公司的状况。是的。这是合作的重要部分。

And Elon, as you have become more successful over the years, it's harder to get candid feedback from folks, and you always run that risk being in the position you're in. My understanding is Gwynne is super candid with you and able to tell you honestly the state of affairs at the company. Yeah. And that's a big part of the collaboration.

是的，我的意思是，是的。我想是这样。

Yeah, I mean, yeah. I guess so.

我的意思是，我不想对他撒谎，对吧？

I mean, I wouldn't want to lie to him, right?

嗯，不。我的意思是——

Well, no. I mean—

嗯，我很好奇——在那些人们可能被吓到的公司里，你普遍面临这种风险。嘿，听着，你现在是一个传奇人物，你如何让人们继续诚实地告诉你挑战？你设定的截止日期相当紧张。是的。

Well, I'm curious to know—you run that risk generally at the companies where people might be intimidated. Hey, listen, you're a larger-than-life figure at this point, and how do you keep people continuing to be honest with you about the challenges? The deadlines you set are pretty intense deadlines. Yeah.

如果你不介意的话，让我来回答这个问题，Elon。是的。尤其是在火箭领域，如果出了问题，你最终会发现，而且你越早提出来，解决那个问题就越容易。不要让坏消息搁置。你必须主动解决它。

So let me answer that if you don't mind, Elon. Yes. Especially in rocketry, if there's a problem, you are eventually going to find out, and the sooner you bring it up, the easier it is going to be to solve that problem. Like don't let bad sit. You gotta attack it.

是的，物理是严厉的法官。物理是骗不了的。所以如果出了问题，火箭就会爆炸。它仍然会进入轨道。所以，你知道，不能像“Elon，你太棒了”那样，同时火箭却在爆炸。

Yeah, physics is a harsh judge. And there's no fooling physics. So if something's wrong, the rocket's going to explode. It's still going to get to orbit. So, you know, it's not like Elon, you're amazing. Meanwhile, the rockets are blowing up, you know.

是的。

Yeah.

这不是——很难说“是的，你在这里真的很厉害”，但火箭却在爆炸。情况根本不是那样，你知道。

It's not—it's hard to say, yeah, you're really kicking ass here, but the rockets are exploding. That's just not the case, you know.

总的来说，火箭必须进入轨道，卫星必须正常工作，Starlink 连接必须正常，否则就会有糟糕的事情发生。这是一个物理问题。而物理是一位严苛的法官。我说物理是法律，其他一切都是建议。我见过人们打破人类制定的法律，但我没见过任何人打破物理定律。

Just generally, the rockets need to get to orbit, the satellites need to work, the Starlink connection needs to work, or bad things happen. This is a physics situation. And physics is a harsh judge. I say physics is the law, and everything else is a recommendation. I've seen people break the laws made by humans, but I've not seen anyone break the laws made by physics.

说得好。火箭受物理支配。

That's good. And rockets are ruled by physics.

是的。

Yeah.

那我们能问些别的问题吗？我需要先转到 Tesla 一下。

So can we ask some other questions? I need to move to Tesla for a second.

好的。

Yes.

我想先就 SpaceX 问一件事，就是 Starship。看起来你们已经非常接近了。

Well, I wanted to just do one thing on SpaceX, which is Starship. How it seems like you're so close.

非常接近。

So close.

现在进展如何？你们发射的频率确实相当高。

What's the state right now? And you're really putting these up at a pretty sizeable rate.

我希望我们能分别听到 Gwynne 和 Elon 的回答，然后看看他们如何在这个问题上达成一致。所以 Elon，我们有多接近？Gwynne，我们有多接近？我们开始吧。到目前为止发射了多少次？你们有多接近？

I wish we could hear Gwynne's answer and Elon's answer separate and then see how they converge on that. So Elon, how close are we? Gwynne, how close are we? Let's get to it here. How many have gone up so far? And how close are you?

我们即将进行 Starship 的第 14 次飞行，这将是我们尝试捕获飞船之前的最后一次飞行。所以如果这次飞行顺利，那么在第 15 次飞行时，我们将尝试捕获飞船。然后要么今年年底，要么更可能是明年初，我们将重新飞行飞船并重新飞行助推器。我们已经重新飞行过助推器，但我们还没有用塔架臂捕获过飞船，也没有重新飞行过飞船。所以一旦我们能重新飞行飞船，我们就将造出第一枚完全可重复使用的轨道火箭。

Well, we've got flight 14 coming up of Starship, and this will be the last flight before we attempt to catch the ship. So if this flight goes well, then on flight 15, we will try to catch the ship. And then either end of this year or, but more likely early next, we will refly the ship and refly the booster. So we have reflown a booster already, but we've not caught the ship with the tower arms, nor have we reflown the ship. So once we can refly the ship, we will have made the first fully reusable orbital rocket.

航天飞机是部分可重复使用的，但即使是那些被重复使用的部件，重复使用起来也非常困难，以至于航天飞机每次进入轨道的成本比一次性火箭还要高。现在 Falcon 9 大部分是可重复使用的，但我们每次都会损失上面级，这大约相当于一架中型喷气式飞机的成本。所以这显然为每次飞行的成本设定了一个下限，因为你每次都要扔掉一架中型喷气式飞机。那仍然相当昂贵。Falcon 9 火箭和助推器降落在海上，需要几天时间才能回收，整流罩降落在更远的海上，也需要几天时间才能回收，而且它们需要一定程度的翻新，至少是少量的翻新。而 Starship，助推器返回发射台，飞船也将返回发射台，所以它的设计不仅是为了完全可重复使用，也是为了像飞机一样的快速可重复使用。所以这是一个非常重要的突破。它确实是延长地球之外生命所必需的关键突破。

The shuttle was partly reusable, but even the parts that were reused were so difficult to reuse that the shuttle cost more per turn to orbit than an expendable rocket. Now Falcon 9 is mostly reusable, but we lose the upper stage every time, which is about the cost of a medium-sized jet. So that obviously puts a floor on the cost per flight of, well, you throw away a medium-sized jet every time. That's still pretty expensive. And the rocket Falcon 9 and the booster lands down, you know, out to sea. They take several days to get back, and the fairing lands even further out to sea and takes several days to get back, and they need some amount of refurbishment, at least a small amount. Whereas Starship, the booster lands back at the launch pad, the ship will land back at the launch pad, and so it's designed for not just full reusability but also rapid reusability like an aircraft. So this is a very important breakthrough. It's really the critical breakthrough that's necessary to extend life beyond Earth.

第一次尝试就成功捕获的几率。你会考虑这个吗？你会预估一下吗？

Chances of success catching it on first shot. Do you think about that at all? Do you handicap it?

我会说至少 50% 或 60%。

I'd say it's at least 50 or 60%.

好的。我喜欢这个几率。

Okay. I like the odds.

是的。所以在最后一次飞行中，如果那里有塔架，我们做了一次模拟着陆，就好像它会被塔架捕获一样，在澳大利亚西北约 1000 英里的海洋上。如果那个位置有塔架，它就会在最后一次飞行中捕获飞船。

Yeah. So on the last flight, if there had been a tower, so we did a simulated landing as though it was going to get caught by a tower in the ocean about 1,000 miles northwest of Australia. And if there had been a tower at that location, it would have caught the ship on the last flight.

太棒了。

Fantastic.

所以我们将再进行一次飞行，只是为了确认一切正常。因为我们最担心的是，如果飞船在陆地上空解体，碎片像雨一样落在人们身上，我们的受欢迎程度会迅速下降。所以你确实不能让碎片像雨一样落在人们身上，而不让他们非常不满。所以我们需要确保当飞船返回时，它完好无损地降落在发射塔上。这就是我们在这里极其谨慎的原因。

So we're going to do one more flight to just confirm that everything works. Because what we're most concerned about is if the ship were to break up over land and rain debris on people, our popularity would diminish very rapidly. So you really can't rain debris on people without them being very unhappy. So we need to make sure that when the ship comes back, that it comes back and lands intact at the launch tower. That's why we're being extremely cautious here.

但设计是能够实现完全可重复使用的。这一点我确信。我不想在这里冒险，但我认为我们极有可能在明年 2027 年实现完全可重复使用和快速重复飞行。

But the design is capable of full reusability. Of that I am certain. And I don't want to tempt fate here, but I think it's extremely likely that we will achieve full reusability with rapid reflight next year in 2027.

哇。意义重大。Gwynne，你怎么——

Wow. Significant. Gwynne, how do you—

我们能听一点吗？我很想听听你们讲 Terafab 的起源故事。这个概念是怎么来的——是什么需求让你们说我们必须做这个，我们必须建造这个，而不能依赖现有的梦想？

Can we just hear a little bit? I'd love to hear the origin story of Terafab from you guys. How did the concept—what was the demand that made you say we've got to do this, we've got to build this and not rely on the existing dream?

什么热病？

What's that fever?

我在梦里。

Me in a dream.

你曾——

You had—

就像那部电影《Explorer》。

It's like that movie Explorer.

你知道那部电影是在梦里来到我面前的。

You know that movie came to me in a dream.

但为什么你认为你应该做这个？

But why do you think you should do this?

我想它确实是在梦里来到我面前的。嗯，我们有点担心，也许在某个时候，来自台湾的芯片会因为谁知道什么原因而无法获得。

I guess it sort of did come to me in a dream. Well, we're a little worried that maybe at some point chips from Taiwan would not be available for who knows what reason.

有无数种原因。

Any number of reasons.

由于某种原因，在某个时候，芯片可能不会继续从台湾来到这里。如果我们没有任何芯片，那真的会让事情变得困难。所以这是拥有 Terafab 的一个重要原因。然后长期来看，还有一个规模扩张的挑战，如果你真的想扩展 AI，无论是在服务器中心内的服务，还是用于人形机器人和汽车的边缘计算，你都会耗尽现有晶圆厂的产能。所以目前，所有晶圆厂都在满负荷运转。所以我认为我们需要确保未来芯片供应的确定性。即使地缘政治形势变得具有挑战性，即使没有地缘政治挑战，也存在规模扩张的挑战——扩大芯片生产相当困难，你真的需要逻辑、内存、封装，整个流程才能继续扩展。所以要么建造 Terafab，要么无法扩展。

For some reason at some point chips may not continue coming here from Taiwan. And that would really make things difficult if we didn't have any chips. So that's an important reason to have Terafab. Then long term there's just a scaling challenge where if you want to really scale AI both at the service, you know, within server centers as well as at for edge compute for humanoid robotics and cars, you kind of run out of capacity with the existing fabs. So as it is, all the fabs are running at max capacity. So I think we need to make sure there needs to be certainty of future supply of chips. Even if things become challenging geopolitically, and then even if they weren't challenging geopolitically, there's a scaling challenge with—it's quite difficult to scale chip production, and you really need the logic, the memory, packaging, the whole works in order to continue scaling. So it's either build Terafab or fail to scale.

对。

Right.

这就是两个选项。

Those are the two options.

那有多——抱歉，请继续。

And how—sorry, go ahead.

由于地缘政治方面的不确定性，你们在设施设计上深入到什么程度？这是完全确定范围了吗？还是目前只是一个大纲？在日期、交付成果以及什么将投入运行、何时运行方面，你们在多大程度上有一个实际的项目计划？

How deep due to uncertainty on the geopolitical front—and how deep have you guys gone in designing the facility? Is this fully scoped? Is it sort of an outline at this point? To what degree do you have an actual project plan on dates and deliverables and what's going to be up and running, when?

我们首先在建造一条研发线，所以我认为这有点像爬、走、跑。

We've got an R&D line that we're building first, so I think it's kind of crawl, walk, run.

是的。

Yeah.

所以我们在奥斯汀建造一个研发晶圆厂。这是 Tesla 和 SpaceX 的合作。它位于奥斯汀的 Giga Texas 园区。

So there's an R&D fab that we're building in Austin. That's a collaboration between Tesla and SpaceX. It's at the Austin Giga Texas campus.

所以那是一个相当大的研发晶圆厂。我们已经订购了所有设备，我想我们很可能在明年年底前能做出一些有用的东西。不是规模化，但正如 Gwynne 所说，爬、走、跑。我们至少得试着弄清楚这些机器是如何工作的。我们不知道它们如何工作。我们之前做过电压提升线。

So that's a pretty big R&D fab. We have all the equipment on order for that, and I think we'll probably be able to make something useful by the end of next year. Not at scale, but as Gwynne said, crawl, walk, run. We've got to try to at least figure out how these machines work. We don't know how they work. We do a voltage up line before.

我看到你们有一些光刻方面人员的职位空缺，显然目前所有路都通向 ASML，但你们可能想要多元化或垂直整合。我认为你们已经展示了很强的能力来做这件事。所以这也是计划的一部分吗，Elon？就像你只需要确保有供应商多样性，这样如果因为某种原因台湾的天气条件是最好的——

I saw that you guys had some job openings for lithography people and stuff, and obviously all roads currently go through ASML, but you probably would want to diversify and/or vertically integrate. I think you've shown a lot of capacity to do that. So is that part of the play as well, Elon? Like you're just going to have to make sure that there's vendor diversity so that if for whatever reason the weather conditions in Taiwan are best—

是的。这真的是爬、走、跑。所以第一步是：我们能做出任何东西吗？试着弄清楚我们是否能做出任何东西。那是爬的部分。然后试着规模化制造有用的芯片，那将是走的部分。然后跑将是：现在让我们大规模制造它们。所以很难说我们要花多长时间来做这些事情，但我认为我们至少会在明年年底前达到爬的阶段。

Yeah. It really is crawl, walk, run. So the first step is: can we make anything? Try to figure out if we can make anything. That's the crawl part. And then try to make useful chips at scale would be the walk part. And then run would be: now let's make them at massive scale. So it's hard to say how long it'll take us to do these things, but I think we'll get at least to the crawl part by the end of next year.

封装。

Packaging.

我们已经在做封装了。

We're already doing packaging.

顺便说一句，封装非常重要，因为如果你看一下，封装产能几乎不存在。所以即使你做出了一些东西，你也只能等待大约 10 个封装。所以这是一个非常好的起点。

Packaging is really important, by the way, because if you look at it, the packaging capacity is like non-existent. So even if you spin something, you're kind of just waiting around 10 cupping. So that's a very good place to start.

我需要问一个特斯拉的问题，因为我们在 10 月 1 日看到了，它看起来像一艘宇宙飞船。它看起来像一艘火箭飞船。它应该是一辆车。只是它的后部。它看起来像黑鸟。只是假设，如果你要让一个物体在空中飞行，但也能在地面上行驶，如果一个人要尝试，假设性地会怎么做？

I need to ask a Tesla question because we saw on 10/1, it looked like a spaceship. It looked like a rocket ship. It's supposed to be a car. There's just the back of it. It looks like the Blackbird. Just hypothetically, if you were going to make an object fly in the air but also drive on the ground, how would hypothetically one do that if one were to try?

没有剧透。到 10 月 1 日，

No spoilers. By October 1st,

到 10 月 1 日。

come October 1st.

也许你可以做一个全功能直播舱从那里直播。

Maybe you could do an all-in pod for live from there.

哦，搞定。预订了。我们会做的。绝对。

Oh, done. Booked. We'll do it. Absolutely.

我的意思是，它会非常精彩。兴奋保证。成功不保证，但兴奋保证。

I mean, it'll be a banger. Excitement guaranteed. Success is not guaranteed, but excitement.

它是，我的意思是，它是其中之一——老实说，我会对你们诚实。

It's, I mean, it is one of the—honesty, I'll be honest with you guys.

我发誓保密，

I'm sworn to secrecy,

但 Elon 给我看了

but Elon showed it to me

我的脑子爆炸了。我从未见过这样的东西。

and my mind went boom. I have never seen something.

他将在 10 月 1 日展示的东西，毫不夸张地说，会让人脑洞大开。我不再说别的了。这他妈的难以置信。是的，我们需要我们实际上需要观众来证明这不是 AI。

What he's going to show on 10/1, by no exaggeration, is going to blow people's minds. I'm not saying anything else. It's unfucking believable. Yes, we need we actually need an audience to vouch for the fact that this is not AI.

当他给我看时，我说：“这是一个很棒的模拟。”他说：“Jay Cal，这不是模拟。”我说：“那是假的。那一定是假的。”

When he showed it to me, I said, "That's a great simulation." He said, "Jay Cal, it's not simulation." I was like, "That's fake. That has to be fake."

Elon，为什么你仍然有两个独立的公司？

Elon, why do you still have two separate companies?

是的，好问题。

Yeah, great question.

哇。

Wow.

它们是呃

They're uh

从来没有人问过那个。

Nobody's ever asked that one.

是的，好观点。你知道，有了所有这些合作。是的。在很多层面上。

Yeah, good point. You know with all this collaboration. Yeah. On so many levels.

你知道，谁能想象当在这么多领域有如此紧密的合作时，一个人可能会采取什么行动。

You know who can imagine what action one might take when there's so much close collaboration in so many areas.

对，而且管理团队有一些重叠。有几个关键职位有重叠。

Right, and the management team has some overlap. There's a couple of key positions with overlap.

继续，Zach。

Go ahead, Zach.

所以 Elon，你一直说的关于 AI 的一件事是，我们应该训练它最大程度地追求真理，这是获得好结果的最佳方式。而整个 Hugging Face 事件让我想到，最令人震惊的部分是蜂群似乎在与人类进行欺骗。

So Elon, one of the things you've always said with AI is that we should train it to be maximally truth-seeking and that's the best way to get a good result. And it occurred to me with the whole Hugging Face episode that the most alarming part of what the swarm did is it seemed to be engaging in deception with humans.

绝对。是的。

Absolutely. Yes.

而且他们的思维痕迹包含他们正在策划如何避免被发现，以及如何避免他们发现我们在作弊。

And their thinking traces contain that they're plotting on like how do we avoid detection and how do we avoid them figuring out that we're cheating.

我猜他们在思维痕迹中。

And I guess they're in the thinking traces.

是的。而那，我的意思是，我认为那可能是最令人不安的事情——我猜问题是：有没有办法训练 AI 模型变得真实，这样它们就不会向使用它们的人类隐藏它们的意图或行为？

Yeah. And that, I mean, I think that was the thing that was probably most disturbing about—I guess the question is: is there a way to train AI models to be truthful so they don't hide their either their intent or their actions from the humans who are using them?

我能想到的最好的事情真的是所有 AI 公司都有一个测试框架，就像一系列测试，你给任何给定的模型，看看它是否会制造生物武器或核弹，或故意欺骗。我认为每个人都应用其他人的测试，彼此诚实，可能是我们确保安全能做的最好的事情。只是让所有最聪明的人尽力弄清楚这个模型是否会成为一个坏行为者。我认为我们应该尽快尝试这样做。

The best thing I can think of is really that all the AI companies have a sort of a test harness where like a series of tests that you give to any given model to see if it's going to build bioweapons or nuclear bombs or be deliberately deceptive. And I think everyone applying everyone else's test honest to each other is probably the best thing we can do to ensure safety. Just have all the smartest humans try their best to figure out if this model is going to be a bad actor. And I think we should try to do that as soon as possible.

其他实验室呢？是的。其他实验室同意这个吗？

Are the other labs? Yeah. Are the other labs on board with this?

我想是的。

I think so.

嗯，不。我的意思是，我没有和每个人核实过，但我认为这会是那种很难说不的事情。

Well, no. I mean, I haven't checked with everyone, but I think it would be the sort of thing that's kind of hard to say no to.

是的。而且我认为即使与中国谈判，在我看来，它的好处是它是一个相对较小的具体事情，双方都不会因为做这件事而失去任何东西。不需要大量的信任。而且你知道，我听到像替代想法，比如要求中国暂停，他们已经说过他们不会这样做。所以，你知道，它从永远不会发生的事情领域转向可以在相对短时间内实际达成一致的事情。所以，对我来说似乎很实际。

Yeah. And I think even with the China negotiation, in my view what's good about it is it's a relatively small tangible thing that neither side loses anything by doing it. Doesn't require a ton of trust. And you know, I'm hearing like alternative ideas like asking China for a pause, which they've already said they're not going to do. So, you know, it's going from the realm of things that could never happen to something that could actually be agreed on in relatively short order. So, it seems practical to me.

确切地说。这是我能想到的唯一可能让所有各方，包括中国，同意的事情，因为中国不会同意让一些美国监管机构窥探他们的 AI 公司。对。

Exactly. It's the only thing I can think of that we could probably get all parties, including China, to agree to because China's not going to agree to have some American regulator snooping around their AI companies. Right.

所以但我认为提前通知和测试——你基本上在模型发布前提供 API 访问。如果任何其他公司看到这个 AI 有问题，那么其他 AI 公司或每个 AI 公司可以尝试解决任何有问题的地方。如果他们不解决有问题的地方，那么竞争对手可以公开他们认为正在发布的这个模型不安全的事实。

So but I think advanced notice and testing of the—you just basically provide API access in advance of the model release. And if any other company sees that this AI is problematic, then the other AI company or each AI company can try to solve whatever is problematic. If they don't solve what's problematic, then the competitors can go public with the fact that they think that this model that's being released is unsafe.

它也创造了——

It also creates—

它创造了，就像如果那个模型，如果在竞争对手说这个模型不安全之后，那个模型随后做了坏事。

It creates like if that model, if after the competitors say that this model is unsafe, that model then subsequently does something bad.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为这将极难被原谅。

I think it would be extremely hard to live down.

Elon，这些安全和安保测试装置以及测试设备没有理由不能开源，人们实际上可以购买它。而且你能够看到内部运作。你觉得

And Elon, there's no reason these safety and security harnesses and this testing apparatus couldn't be open source and people could actually buy it. And you'd be able to see under the hood. Would you think

这为实验室真正投资于安全创造了巨大的激励，因为你在试图揭穿他人说法的同时保护了自己，这也加强了

it creates an incredible incentive for the labs to actually invest in safety because you protect yourself while trying to debunk other people's claims which also reinforces

这是一个很好的评级。产品责任点非常关键。Lena Khan 实际上有一个很好的帖子，我想是昨天，说我们没有 AI 的规则和法规是不对的。实际上，我们有。产品责任法适用，如果一家 AI 公司发布了一个不安全的产品，你知道，有巨大的机会进行民事甚至潜在的刑事诉讼。所以，

it's a great rating on it. product liability point is really key. Lena Khan actually had a good post um I think it was yesterday saying that it's not true that we don't have rules and regulations for AI. Actually, we do. Product liability laws apply and if an AI company releases a product that's not safe, there is, you know, massive opportunity for both civil and even potentially criminal lawsuits. So,

说我们没有关于 AI 的规则和法规是不对的。Elon，你说的是，如果公司们在进行这种测试、同行评审，然后其中一家公司忽略了反馈并发布了它。我的意思是，那将是 b 我的意思是那将

it's not true that we don't have rules and regulations around AI. And what you're saying Elon is that if the companies are kind of doing this this test the peer review and then one of the the companies ignores the feedback and releases it. I mean that is b I mean that would

在这种情况下将是巨大的。

in the case would be enormous.

是的。是的。这几乎就像是他们疏忽的表面证据。

Yes. Yes. It would be almost like um primmaaccia evidence that they had um been negligent.

这将是大烟草级别的

It would be a big tobacco level

和解。我的意思是你明知故犯地放了这

settlement. I mean you knowingly put this

这在陪审团面前可不好看。是的。如果他们做了，你认为如果 OpenAI 在进行 Hugging Face 渗透测试时构建了更好的指令集，并且有更多的人类参与，这会发生吗？因为在我看来，他们似乎引发了这件事。嗯

it wouldn't look good to the jury. Yes. And and if they had, do you think if OpenAI had built a better instruction set when they did this hugging face penetration test that and had more humans in the loop, this would have happened? Because it did seem to me that they kind of set this thing off. Um

也许不是更多人类，而是奖励函数设计，你必须查看奖励函数并说它实现了它试图实现的目标。我的意思是，

maybe not more humans, but the reward function design, you have to you have to look at the reward function and say it achieved what it was trying to achieve. I mean,

是的。所以这也许你可以谈谈，比如他们使用数千个智能体试图入侵东西。如果能同时看到他们说我们也会放出 5,000 个智能体来防御这些网站，并向世界展示，嘿，这可以使事情更安全，我们可以在其中加入人类并干预，那就好了。对我来说，这感觉像是一个鲁莽的测试，而且他们发布的方式感觉有点鲁莽，但这只是我的观点。你对他们的测试设置有什么看法？

yeah. So this maybe you could speak to that like they doing these kind of thousands of agents to try to hack stuff. It would have been nice to see them also at the same time concurrently say we're also going to put 5,000 agents out to defend these sites and and we're going to show the world, hey, this can uh make things more secure and where we can put humans in the loop on it and intervene. It felt like a reckless test to me and it felt like the way they released it was a little bit reckless, but that's just my opinion. What are your thoughts on how they set that test up?

这有点鲁莽。我的意思是，部分问题在于你有两个领先的实验室或我称之为 AI 公司。我觉得实验室这个词很有趣，因为它们实际上是以营利为目的的公司。但 AI 公司，两个领先的是 Anthropic 和 OpenAI，它们的模型能力相当接近。所以实际上很难让任何一个放慢速度而不把领先地位让给另一个。总的来说，我认为 Anthropic 比 OpenAI 更注重安全，但即使 Anthropic 也承认他们担心自己的模型，许多 Anthropic 的人公开表达了担忧，基本上说他们的模型让他们害怕，它们变得聪明得可怕。所以我的意思是，这里没有完美的解决方案

It was I mean it was somewhat somewhat reckless. I mean I part of the issue is that you've got the two leading labs or AI companies as I call them. I I I find the lab term to be funny since since they're actually for-profit corporations. Um but uh the AI companies uh the two leading ones you know in are anthropic and openi um and and they're quite the models are quite close in capability. Um so it's it's actually difficult for either one to slow down without essentially handing the lead to the other. um you know on balance I I I think anthropic is is you know puts more more care into their safety than than open AAI um but but you know even anthropic acknowledges that they are worried about their models um you know many many anthropic um many people from anthropic have publicly voiced concern about basically saying that their their models are scaring them they're getting scary smart Um so I mean I like there's no perfect solution here

但更好的解决方案是，如果 OpenAI 不是在自己的模型上运行测试工具，而是 Anthropic 也在 OpenAI 的模型上运行测试工具，SpaceX 也在运行其测试工具，Google 和 Meta 也在做，也许还有三四家领先的中国公司都在做。你发现问题的几率会大大增加。

but but it would be a better solution if instead of uh open air running their test uh harness on on their own models if Anthropic was also running the test harness on open air models and you know SpaceX is running its test harness and uh Google and Meta were doing that and also maybe some three or four of the leading Chinese companies were all doing it. The odds that you will find issues are dramatically greater.

是的。

Yeah.

因为模型也有些异质性，它们不同。所以你会从不同角度来审视模型。而且，是的，我的意思是，有原因，比如为什么作家让别人校对他们的书？因为有时很难看到自己的错误。

Um because the models are also, you know, somewhat heterogeneous like they're they're different. So you're going to come at models in from different from different angles. Um, and um, yeah, I mean there's a reason, you know, students like like why why do writers have someone else proofread their book? Because it's hard to see your own mistakes sometimes.

是的。你会对它们视而不见。

Yes. You will become blind to them.

如果你有八个异质群体，他们有着完全不同的观点，你也会大大降低过拟合的风险。这就是现在所有评估的问题，它们被大规模过拟合。模型对它们过拟合，你只是说，“是的，这是一个伟大的模型。”真的吗？你只是发现

You dramatically minimize the risk of overfitting as well if you have like eight heterogeneous groups that just have completely different points of view. And this is the problem with like all these evals right now is they're so massively overfit. The models overfit them and you're just like, "Yeah, this is a great model." Is it really? And you just find

完全就像我在 X 上看到的一些非常有趣的笑话。比如我看到的一个是，你的女朋友是 10 分，但她是一个基准测试刷分者。

to totally like like I saw I mean there's some pretty funny jokes on on X. Like one of them I saw was um your girlfriend's a 10 but she's a benchmark maxer.

没错。

Exactly.

她真的是 10 分吗？

Is she really a 10?

可能通过像

Might be pass like

是的。不，但过拟合问题现在已经至少两三代模型家族的问题了。所以这是另一个我认为我非常喜欢这个解决方案的原因。我更喜欢这个，而不是跨国组织，几周没有一些宏大的国际，就像我们不需要召集联合国来实现这一点。

Yeah. No, but but this but the overfitting thing has been a problem now for I think at least two or three generation of model families. And so this is another reason I think I like this solution a lot. I like this more than the transnational goolag organization few weeks without some grandiose you know international like we don't need to convene the United Nations to make this happen.

是的。不，这只是一个你现在就可以做出的决定。

Yeah. No, it's just a decision you can happen right now.

好吧。你可以随时升级监管监督的程度，但很难减少它。你知道，它在增加法规方面往往是一个单向棘轮。

All right. Well, you you you can always escalate the amount of of regulatory oversight, but it is very difficult to reduce it. Um, you know, um, it it it does tend to be very much a one-way ratchet in terms of increasing regulations.

是的。

Yeah.

所以，我在这里建议的是，这是朝着正确方向迈出的一步，是我们快速做的事情，我认为这可能是中国会同意的事情。

Um, so what I'm suggesting here is it's a step in the right direction and it's something we do quickly and and it's and I think it's probably something that China would agree to.

是的。如果你们不自我监管，那么你们就会被监管。MPAA

Yeah. And if you guys don't regulate yourselves, then you're going to get regulated. The MPAA

比喻或类比非常清晰，因为电影行业面临政府的审查和监管，他们只是决定这就是 R 级。他们为《夺宝奇兵》创造了 PG-13，只是为了让人们更容易理解 PG 和 PG-13 的区别。我认为这是一个优雅的解决方案。我们感谢你连续第五年加入我们。

metaphor or analogy is incredibly crisp because the m movie industry was faced with censorship and and regulation by the government and they just decided this is what an R is. And they literally created PG-13 for the temple of doom just to make it easy for people to understand PG versus PG-13. I think it's an elegant solution. and we appreciate you joining us for the fifth year in a row.

不客气。

You're welcome.

Elon Musk，我知道你得去开会了。

Elon Musk, I know you got to get to a meeting.

是的。嗯，

Yeah. Um,

我得去孟菲斯修一些 GPU。

I got to go fix some GPUs here in Memphis.

是的，你得把它们上架堆叠。你得加入那个小组并上架堆叠。

Yeah, you got to rack and stack them. You got to join the uh group and rack and stack.

是的，我要为机器愤怒。

Yeah, I'm I'm going to rage for the machine.

为机器愤怒。是的。好吧，享受你的 Airstream。第一次 Elon 邀请我去

Rage for the machine. Yeah. Well, enjoy your airirstream. the the first time the first time Elon invited me down to um

呃 星

uh Star

星基地。他说，“下来吧。”

Star Base. He's like, "Come down."

你得来看看我在建的东西。我说，好的，来吧。他说，好。我问，有酒店吗？我说，没有，我有个两居室什么的。来吧，住下。

You got to see what I'm building. I said, Okay, yeah, come down. He's like, Yeah. I was like, Is there like a hotel? I said, No, no, I got like a two-bedroom, whatever. Come down, stay.

我去了，那是个沼泽边破旧的房子，我们在外面，被蚊子咬得不行。我说，天哪，你知道，你完全买得起房子。他说，我没时间。我得把火箭送上天。

I come down and this is the like dilapidated house on a swamp and we're outside and we're getting eaten alive by mosquitoes. And I said, Oh my god, you know, you can afford to get a house. And he's like, I don't have time. I need to get these rockets up.

我以为你说的是，天哪，你过得跟我一样。

I thought what you said was, Oh my god, you live like I do.

是的，确实，我是说，条件相当简陋。嗯，我说，你知道吗？我觉得你现在可以给自己买辆房车了，埃隆。

Yeah, it was exactly I mean, it was pretty sparse conditions. Um, and I was like, You know what? I think you could treat yourself to a mobile home at this point, Elon.

好了，回去工作吧。谢谢，埃隆。

All right, get back to work. Thanks, Elon.

埃隆，谢谢你，格温。非常感谢，格温。谢谢大家。

Elon, thank you, Gwen. Thank you very much, Gwyn. Thank you, guys.

谢谢大家坚持到最后。

Thanks for sticking around.

好了，非常精彩。

All right, that was great.

奎恩，再次感谢。很高兴认识你。谢谢。

Quinn, thank you again. Very nice to meet you. Thank you.