a16z 当下最想投资的前沿构想

我们今天宣布，把 a16z 加密基金扩展为 a16z Frontier。

We're announcing today that we're expanding the a16z crypto fund to a16z Frontier.

这是早期采用者所理解的可能性与其他人之间最大的差距。这个差距是我职业生涯中见过的最大的。

This is the biggest delta between what the early adopters understand as possible and what everyone else does. That gap is as wide as I've ever seen in my career.

比起品类、比起产品，我们投资的是创业者。而许多最有趣的创业者都在外行星上。

More than categories, more than products, we invest in entrepreneurs. And so many of the most interesting entrepreneurs are on the outer planets.

创业公司的成立数量将从这里开始飙升。

Startup formation is going to skyrocket from here.

顺便说一句，它已经在飙升了。

By the way, it already is.

我们过去会问，这个想法是不是太野心勃勃了？现在我们更可能问，这够不够野心勃勃？因为可能实现的东西太壮观了。

We used to ask the question, is this idea too ambitious? We're much more likely to ask, is this ambitious enough? Because what's possible is so spectacular.

如果 1994 年我在网景有个宇航员，天哪，Ben，你和我当年在网景能做些什么？

Had I had an astronaut at Netscape in 1994, like, oh my god, Ben, what would you and I have been able to do at Netscape?

我们会把整个互联网都建起来。

We would have built the whole damn internet.

你当时 18 岁。今天，你会怎么考虑你可能学什么？借用 Mark 的话，我认为有一件事要做，那就是学习。

You were 18. Today, how would you think about what you might study? Stealing Mark's line, but I think there's one thing to do, which is study.

Chris，我们今天有个重大宣布。

Chris, we have a big announcement today.

我们要扩大授权范围。我让你来宣布。

We're expanding the mandate. I'll let you do the honors.

是的。我们今天宣布，把 a16z 加密基金扩展为 a16z Frontier。这个想法——我想说背后有几个动机。第一，加密在某些领域确实运作得很好。稳定币已经成为科技版图的常规部分，被 Stripe 这样的公司使用，几乎每家金融科技公司现在都把它当作工具箱的一部分。华尔街机构正大举进入加密领域，做代币化股票和其他类型的资产。这是一个快速增长的品类。但结果是，界限变得模糊了，我们发现自己会问，Stripe 算加密公司吗？许多这类公司正处在所谓金融科技、华尔街和加密的交汇处。所以它真的变成了——而多年前它还是有自己的公司、自己的投资者的独立世界，现在界限模糊了，它更多地成了科技版图的一部分。这是第一点。

Yeah. So, we're announcing today that we're expanding the a16z crypto fund to a16z Frontier. The idea is — I'd say a couple of motivations behind this. One is, crypto has in some areas worked really well. Stablecoins have become a normal part of the tech landscape, used by companies like Stripe, and almost every fintech company now considers it part of their toolbox. Wall Street firms are moving heavily into crypto with tokenized stocks and other kinds of assets. It's a fast-growing category. But as a result, the lines have blurred, which, you know, we find ourselves asking, is Stripe a crypto company? Many of these companies are sitting at the intersection of, let's call it, fintech and Wall Street and crypto. So it's really become — whereas years ago it was its own world with its own companies and its own investors, the lines have blurred and it's become more part of the tech landscape. So that's number one.

然后是第二点，我可以让 Mark 和 Ben 多谈谈这个。我觉得在公司里有一种感觉，其他团队在其核心领域有太多有趣的机会——我的合伙人 Martin 称之为外行星，这个比喻我想来自电视剧《萤火虫》。意思是内行星是更核心的行星，还有一些更古怪的外行星。历史上我们两种投资都做过很多。我觉得那种感觉是，因为他们忙于这么多有趣的机会并且做得非常出色，所以存在一个机会——也许在某些覆盖面上有空白。然后，就我个人而言，我把自己和我的背景——我把 Frontier 看作我熟悉的领域。我 2013 年加入公司，带着那种授权进来。我跟 Mark 和 Ben 谈过，我说，嘿，我想做这些疯狂的东西，他们说，太好了。所以那引出了当时的一些主题，它们都是我会称之为二阶效应的东西。智能手机显然始于 2007 年，到 2013 年已经主流化，有所有这些一阶效应，比如在上面构建应用——公司投资了 Instagram，一个建立在智能手机上的了不起的产品。但一个二阶效应是，你有了智能手机的组件——传感器和芯片越来越好——也许人们可以用不同方式重新利用它们。所以那引出了——我记得 Mark 是第一个进入无人机的人，并把我带了进去。但背后的论点，不仅仅是它们很酷，而是既然你有了所有这些好部件的供应链，创业者可以重新组合它们并构建。我们投资了 Oculus 作为例子，那实际上是一个重新配置的智能手机。Skyio，我们当时的一个投资，一开始也是一个重新配置的智能手机。它现在先进多了。加密，我当时认为，对我来说是开源软件运动演变为服务的下游效应，也是社交媒体的结果，在那里你可以让这些社区在没有主流接受的情况下形成，并围绕这些区块链凝聚起来。所以对我个人来说，我只想说这是长期兴趣领域的延续，公司在这些前沿领域还有许多其他投资。所以我们觉得这和我们长期在做的事情是一致的。

And then number two, and I can let Mark and Ben talk about this more. I think we felt that at the firm there's a feeling that the other groups have so many interesting opportunities in their core areas that — what my partner Martin calls outer planets, meaning the metaphor I think comes from Firefly, the TV show. It's the idea that the inner planets are the more core planets and there are these wackier outer planets. Historically we've done a lot of both types of investing. I think the feeling was that because they're so busy with so many interesting opportunities and doing an amazing job with that, there was an opportunity — maybe a gap in some of the coverage. And then, just to speak personally, I see myself and my background — I see Frontier as an area I'm comfortable with. I joined the firm in 2013 and came in with that kind of mandate. I talked to Mark and Ben and I said, hey, I want to do this crazy stuff, and they were like, great. And so that led to a couple of themes at the time, and they're all kind of what I would call second-order effects. You had smartphones, obviously started in 2007 and by 2013 had gotten mainstream, and there were all these first-order effects like building apps on top — the firm was an investor in Instagram, an incredible product built on smartphone. But a second-order effect was that you had the components of smartphones — sensors and chips getting better and better — and maybe people could repurpose those in different ways. And so that led to — I think Mark was the one who was first into drones, as I recall, and got me into them. But the thesis behind it, beyond just they're cool, is that now that you have this supply chain of all these great parts, entrepreneurs can recombine them and build. We invested in Oculus as an example, and that was really a reconfigured smartphone. Skyio, one of our investments from back then, at the beginning was a reconfigured smartphone. It's gotten much more advanced now. Crypto, I think at the time, was kind of a downstream effect to me of the open source software movement morphing into services, and also a result of social media, where you could have these communities form without mainstream acceptance and coalesce around these blockchains. So for me personally, I'll just say this is a continuation of a long area of interest, and the firm has had many other investments in these kinds of frontier areas. So we felt it's consistent with things we've been doing for a long time.

Ben、Mark，让我们听听你们的。我知道这是共同努力，是你们非常兴奋的事情，觉得填补了一个空白，或者真正扩展了公司的授权范围。Ben，你来说说你的看法？

Ben, Mark, let's hear from you. I know this was a joint effort and something you guys were very excited about and felt like filled a gap or really expanded the mandate of the firm. Ben, why don't you add your take?

是的。你看，我认为有些领域非常新颖。所以它是审视技术上什么是可能的以及世界上的问题，而他们是最先进入的人。它最终可能成为一个品类。它最终可能成为一家成功的公司。它可能爆掉。但有一类这样的东西。我们通常或历史上做的是，首先 Chris 自己会看这些新领域。然后当我们识别出新领域时，我们会在那个领域后面创建一个垂直团队。我们发现我们的垂直策略运作得非常好，但仍然有新东西落在垂直领域之外，而把它变成一种实践的过程有点不明确。不是说我们没做过，而是有点不明确。所以通过 Chris 做这件事，我们就有了一种机制去投资那些在外行星上的最有趣的创始人，然后如果这行得通，也许某个时候它会变成一个完整的基金，或者也许 Frontiers 会变成那个东西，因为它变得太有趣了——那也有可能。

Yeah. So, look, I think that there are areas that are really novel. So it's looking at what's possible technologically and problems in the world, and they're just the first ones in it. And it may end up being a category. It may end up being a successful company. It may blow up. But there's a class of these things. And what we've done typically or historically is first Chris would just look at these new areas himself. And then as we identified new areas, we'd create a vertical behind that area. And what we found with our vertical strategy, which has worked very well, is that there's still new things that fall outside of the verticals, and the process of turning that into a practice is a little bit undefined. Not that we haven't done it, but it's a little bit undefined. And so by Chris doing this, we kind of will have the motion to invest in the very most interesting founders who are on outer planets, and then if that works, maybe that becomes a whole fund at some point, or maybe Frontiers turns into that thing because it gets so interesting — that could be as well.

所以我认为这对我们来说非常令人兴奋，因为它填补了架构中的一个空白，而且你知道，归根结底，我们投资的不是类别，不是产品，而是企业家，而许多最有趣的企业家都在外星球。所以这给了我们一个真正接触到他们的途径。

And so I think that you know it's very exciting for us because it kind of fills a hole in the architecture and then also you know we really at the end of the day more than categories more than products we invest in entrepreneurs and so many of the most interesting entrepreneurs are outer planet. So this gives us a real way to get to that.

在我看来，这似乎是我们上次务虚会讨论内容的延续，这让我印象深刻，因为尽管公司一直很有雄心，一直很早期，下注也很大，但务虚会的重点却是我们如何下注更大，或者我们唯一的遗憾是没有更努力、更早、更大。克里斯，你是在这些新兴类别中下注的人，但这感觉像是那个信息的延续。

And to me this seems like a continuation of what we were talking about at the last offsite which struck me because as ambitious as the firm has been, as early as the firm has been, as big as the bets that the firm has made, the big focus of the offsite was how do we bet even bigger or the only regrets we have are not even going even harder even earlier even bigger. And Chris, you're someone who has made bets in some of these emerging categories, but it just feels like a continuation of that message.

我们将大部分时间花在未来，但既然谈到历史，我不得不问一个历史问题，那就是，克里斯我相信是公司除 2013 年加入的贝纳克之外任期最长的连续合伙人。我很好奇，贝马克，当你遇到克里斯时，你在他身上看到了什么，让你清楚地意识到，哦，我们必须让他加入 Acing Z？你预料到他会有怎样的职业生涯吗？本，我先问你。

We're going to spend most of the time in the future, but while we're talking about history, I have to ask one historical question, which is, you know, Chris, I believe, is the longest standing consecutive partner at the firm, besides Benark having joined in 2013. I'm curious, Benmark, when you met Chris, what did you see in him that made it clear that, oh, we have to have him at Acing Z? And did you anticipate the type of career he would go on to have? Ben, I'll ask you to start.

看，我认为最初我们只是知道克里斯是个非常聪明的人，我们真的很喜欢他博客上的想法。我的意思是，真的就是这样。他是个很棒的作家，他的想法非常原创，我们在寻找一个聪明的人来做这件事。然后我们喜欢他的另一点是他有真正的创业经验。所以他知道那段旅程的感觉，这对我们早期按照我们想要的方式设定公司文化非常重要。随着时间的推移，他可能拥有我们公司最原创的投资想法，所以我们复制了这些想法并在整个公司推广。所以他早期的一个想法是，看，我们不是在寻找看起来像好主意的坏主意。我们在寻找看起来像坏主意的坏主意。因为一个坏主意，但企业家有一个秘密，实际上使它成为一个好主意。这个框架对我们理解什么是真正独特的、有巨大上升空间的东西，而不是利润会被竞争掉的东西，非常有用。所以他有很多这样的优秀想法。所以和他合作超过十年真是太棒了。

Look, I think originally we just knew Chris as a very smart guy and we really liked his ideas from his blog. I mean, that's really what it came down to. He was a really good writer. His ideas were very original and we were looking for somebody smart who could do that. And then the other thing we liked about him is he had real experience as an entrepreneur. So he knew what that journey felt like, which was very important to us in the early days to set the culture of the firm the way we wanted it. Over time he's had probably the most original investment ideas that we've had in the firm and so we've kind of copied those and multiplied them across. So one of his early things was, look, we're not really looking for good ideas that look like good ideas. We're looking for good ideas that look like bad ideas. Because a bad idea but where an entrepreneur has a secret that actually makes it a good idea. And that framework was extremely useful for us in understanding what was going to be truly unique and have massive upside versus something that was going to get where all the profits were going to get competed away. And so he's had quite a few excellent ideas like that. So it's been great working with him over now like way more than a decade.

是的。也许我可以补充一点，不仅仅是克里斯本人如此特别，还有克里斯的团队。我认为人们可能没有意识到、从外面可能很难看到的是，加密货币在很多方面一直很性感，它有这种浮华的元素，是一种文化现象和时刻，但加密货币的核心是一种技术，一种非常深奥的技术，一种非常复杂的技术，你需要有真正深厚的技术专长，再加上真正好的商业判断力和真正好的市场判断力，才能成功投资加密货币，而我们已经做到了。顺便说一句，包括克里斯·斯蒂姆团队里有数学教授、密码学家，以及非常深入理论、博弈论等领域的人，非常深入的软件概念。所以让我真正兴奋的一件事是，除了克里斯之外，他的同事和团队成员以及他建立的团队现在能够处理更广泛的主题。

Yep. Maybe I could add also it's not just Chris as special as he is, it's also Chris's team. And the thing that I think people may not appreciate maybe hard to see from the outside is just you know crypto has this you know crypto's like been so sexy in so many ways and it's been so you know it has this sort of flashy elements and you know it's a cultural you know kind of phenomena kind of moments but at the core of crypto it's it's a it's a technology it's a very deep technology and it's very complex technology and you need to have like really deep technical expertise you know kind of coupled with like really good business judgment and really good market judgment in order to successfully invest in crypto which which which we which we've done. Including, by the way, including like, you know, literally Chris Steam has had like, you know, math professors and, you know, cryptographers and like people who are, you know, very very deep into the theory, you know, game theory, things like that. Very deep software concepts. And so it's one of the things I'm really excited about is in addition to Chris, his colleagues and team members and the team that he's built, now being able to work on a broader set of topics.

是的。说到这一点，我的意思是，所以谢谢你。但我认为团队也很棒，我认为团队很棒。我还要提到技术方面之外的另一点，这些年来我们在政策方面投入了很多。

Yeah. And to that point, I mean, so thank you. But I think that also the Yeah, the team I think the team's amazing. And I would also mention one other thing besides the technical side we've invested very deeply over the years in policy.

是的。

Yeah.

还有监管，我相信很多，你知道，如果只是自动驾驶汽车、无人机，人工智能本身现在正在成为一个政治问题。我认为越来越多这些前沿技术将会有某种政策角度，我们相信他们在加密货币旅程的熔炉中建立的这种专业知识将对许多其他企业家有用。

And regulatory and I believe that a lot you know if you just self-driving cars, drones, AI itself is now becoming a political issue. I think more and more of these cutting edge technologies will have kind of a policy angle and and we believe that that that expertise that they've built kind of in the crucible of of the kind of crypto journey will be useful for many other entrepreneurs.

是的。是的。我同意。好吧，在这方面，不，我们将做最后一个历史问题。你知道，你不仅开创了一些投资，还开创了公司的一些运作方式，我指的是政策部门，当你 2013 年加入时，你能想象公司会以这种方式发展吗？你对事情的发展方向有什么想法？

Yeah. Yeah. I agree. Well, on that end, no, we'll do one last historical question. You know, you pioneered not just some of the investments, but also some of the ways in which the firm works, I the policy arm and when you joined in 2013, you know, could you have imagined that the firm would have grown in this way? What was what were your thoughts about where things were going?

嗯，我一直知道马克，我的意思是马克有一张你办公室墙上挂着的 JP 摩根的大海报。

Well, I always knew Mark I mean Mark has a you have a big poster of JP Morgan on your wall in your office.

是的。

Yes.

所以马克和本并不缺乏动力和雄心。

And so these Mark and Ben do not lack for drive and ambition.

这是一张著名的照片。这是一张非常著名的照片。这是，他讨厌 JP 摩根。

It's a famous photograph. It's a very it's a very famous photograph. It was it was he hated JP Morgan.

这是灵感，灵感

It's inspiration inspiration

灵感。对于还没看过这张照片的人，你可以谷歌一下，这是一张非常著名的照片，JP 摩根讨厌拍照，因为他有这个状况。他有这个，总之他有鼻子相关的问题。总之，他讨厌拍照。那是抗生素出现之前，这么说吧。所以他大部分时间都很暴躁，所以他拍照。所以但是，他们需要他的正式肖像，所以最后他们真的把他放好，让他坐下，摄影师好像预见到了整个事情，所以光线设置成他坐在黑暗中，绝对地给相机死亡凝视，他拿着，在照片里看起来像他拿着一把刀，而实际上是椅子的边缘以非常特定的方式被照亮，很明显摄影师是故意这样做的。

inspiration. For people who haven't seen the photograph, you can Google it's a very famous one is JP Morgan hated to have his picture taken for this he had this this condition. He had this anyway he has this nose related issue. Anyway, so he hated having his photo taken. This was pre- antibiotics, let's put it that way. And so he he was grouchy most of the time and so he has photo taken. So that but he they needed a formal portrait of him and so he finally literally you put him and set him down and the photographer like saw the whole thing coming and so it it's lit in a way where he's sitting in darkness just absolutely giving the camera the stare of death and he's holding it looks in the photograph like he's holding a carving and and and what it is is the edge of the chair lit in a very specific way and it's like very clear the photographer like intentionally did that.

是的。所以那就是我办公室门后的照片，

Yeah. So that's the photograph that was inside my office door for

你看起来非常非常吓人。非常

You looked very very scary. very

是的。正是。正是。

Yes. Exactly. Exactly.

另一个我们从他那裡得到了很多灵感。

The other we took a lot of inspiration from him.

我们公司文化文档里还有一条来自他的理念：我们只做一流的业务，而且只以一流的方式去做。这话听起来很酷，但他说这话时正在受审。他们指控他做了些不光彩的事，他说：‘不，我们只做一流的业务，而且只以一流的方式。’马克和我非常喜欢这种态度：你绝对别想告诉我我是谁。我知道我是谁，我会让你知道我是谁。这种态度在风险投资中非常重要——要有原则，让人知道你的立场，并且能够信任你。所以我们从他身上学到了很多。

One of the other things that we have in the firm that's actually in the culture document from him is we do first class business and then only in a first class way. It's a cool phrasing of it, but when he said it, he was on trial. They were accusing him of nefarious things, and he was like, 'No, we only do first class business and only in a first class way.' Mark and I really loved that attitude: you're definitely not going to tell me who I am. I know who I am and I'm going to let you know who I am. That kind of thing is really important in venture capital—to be principled, for people to know where you're coming from, and to be able to trust you. So we got a lot from him.

是的。那么，摩根大通。

Yeah. So, JP Morgan.

是的。我是说，我从未——我想说几点：像任何风投一样，有起有落，你永远无法——我无法预测一切。我认为事情总体上进展得很好，我显然并非一直都知道，但显然知道马克和本非常有野心。有趣的是，有时我会有一些想法，一些我们想做的疯狂事情，人们会说：‘马克和本在发明什么？’我从未——他们一次都没有反对过；如果有的话，总是‘你能加倍吗？你能加倍下注吗？你能更激进吗？’所以，这是一个非常有创业精神的地方，我认为这些年来已经证明了——有多少——这里就是一个很好的例子——当我们适应、观察世界上发生的事情并做出改变时。我们经历了公司的整个重组，引入新想法。任何事都可以尝试，只要你能为之辩护。这也是我喜欢在这里工作的原因。这是一种非常创业的文化。我认为本所说的也非常重要，公司的文化。这也是我最初被吸引的原因。之前作为风险投资的客户，体验过产品，我明白可以有更好的产品。而且——我认为每个人，我认识的这个公司的每个人，都评论过文化及其重要性，以及他们如何喜欢在这里工作，感觉自己在做一生中最好的工作。所以我认为这一切——显然你必须做出好的投资等等，但我认为一切真正始于人和文化。

Yeah. I mean, I have never—I mean, I think a couple things I'll say is, like, any venture there were ups and downs, and you never—I could not have predicted everything. I think things generally went really well, and I didn't obviously know that all along the way, but obviously know that Mark and Ben are incredibly ambitious. It's funny sometimes I'll have some idea and some crazy thing we want to do, and people are like, 'What are Mark and Ben inventing?' I've never—not once have they ever pushed back; if anything, it's always 'Can you double it? Can you double down? Can you get more aggressive?' So just—and then it's a very entrepreneurial place, and I think this has shown over the years—how many—this is a good example right here—when we sort of adapt, see what's happening in the world, change things around. We went through a whole restructuring of the firm, bringing in new ideas. Anything's fair game as long as you can defend it. That's also why I've enjoyed working here. It's a very entrepreneurial culture. I think also what Ben said is very important, the culture of the firm. That's why I was initially attracted to it. Having been a customer of venture capital before that and experienced the product, I understood that there could be a better product. And that's—I think everyone, literally everyone I know at this firm, comments on the culture and how important that is, and how they enjoy working here and feel like they're doing some of the best work of their life. So I think that's all—obviously you have to make good investments and this and that, but I think it all really starts with the people and the culture.

有趣的是你提到——这与文化有关。有趣的是你提到起起落落，因为从外面看，感觉全是上升和——

Well it's funny that you mentioned—it's related to the culture. It's funny you mentioned ups and downs because from the outside looking in it feels like it's all ups and—

所有初创公司都是这样。成功的初创公司从外面看总是很棒，作为——我想我们都可以作为在初创公司内部待过的人来评论——我不知道有哪家初创公司没有在某个时刻或多个时刻一团糟。

That's how all startups are. Successful startups always look great from the outside, as someone who's—I think we can all comment as people who have been inside of startups—I don't know of a startup that wasn't a show at some point or at multiple points.

这也说明了文化。我从你们三位那里听到过‘从不抱怨，从不解释’、‘快乐战士’这样的话，所以是的，这只是一个证明。

It also speaks to the culture. I've heard from all three of you guys things like 'never complain, never explain', 'happy warrior', and so yeah, it's just a testament there.

让我们去前沿，去未来。有时风险投资界有句话：太早和太晚一样糟糕。你有很多次都早了。你大多是对的，或者在非常大的方面是对的，但有时你也太早了。我很好奇你如何看待技术风险或在我们这个时代太早的想法。

Let's go to the frontier, let's go to the future. So, sometimes there's this phrase in venture: being too early is as bad as being too late or something. You've been early a lot. You've been mostly right or right in very big ways, but you've also been too early at times. I'm curious how you think about technical risk or the idea of being too early in our era now.

是的。我是说，我们经常讨论这个。我想我可以代表马克和本——他们可以评论——但我们相信，基本上我们见过的每一个涉及技术的好主意最终都成功了，或者我们相信会成功。如果它还没有成功——重要的限定词是，好主意。也有坏主意。但值得注意的是，尤其是经历过互联网时代，有多少东西——几乎所有最终成功的东西都有一个不成功的前身，可能早了 10 年。而那么多——我认为技术中最难的事情就是预测这些事物的时机。太复杂了，对吧？有技术、文化、商业环境、政治环境。有太多因素影响这些事情，要让它们全部对齐。所以我会说——我认为公司总体上，特别是在前沿基金，我们宁愿偏向于太早。我们理解有时事情会太早，我们接受某种酷类别风险。有些类别可能不会成功。看，即使是那些某种程度上成功的事情也没有完全成功。比如，我们卖了 Oculus，被收购了，但现实是现在 13 年过去了。我仍然非常坚信 VR。我们很想做 VR 投资，但 13 年过去了，它并没有像我们希望的那样成为主流。所以花了很长时间。结果是有更多困难的技术问题需要解决。我有点相信——我不知道马克相信什么——我认为随着我们现在在 AI 中看到的东西，你看到第一次倾斜发生，第一次软件工程变得比数学好得多。

Yeah. I mean, we talk about this a lot. I think I can speak for Mark and Ben—they can comment—but we believe that basically every good idea that we've ever seen that involves technology has eventually worked or we believe will work. If it hasn't worked yet—and the important qualifier, good idea. There are bad ideas. But it's just kind of remarkable, especially having lived through the internet, how many things—almost everything that ended up working had a precursor that didn't work and maybe was 10 years too early. And so much—and that's the hardest thing I think in technology is to predict the timing of these things. It's so complicated, right? There's the technology, there's the culture, there's the business environment, there's the political environment. There are so many factors that go into these things and having it all line up. So I would say with—I think generally at the firm, I would say specifically in the Frontier Fund, we want to err on the side of being too early. We understand that sometimes things will be too early and we're okay with kind of cool category risk. Some categories may not work. Look, even things that sort of worked didn't work. Like, we sold Oculus, got bought, but the reality is it's now 13 years later. I still believe very strongly in VR. We'd love to make VR investments, but it's 13 years later and it hasn't got as mainstream as we would have liked. So it took long. It turned out there are just many more hard technical problems to solve. I kind of believe—I don't know what Mark believes—I think that with the stuff we're seeing in AI now, you see the first sort of tipping happening, first software engineering getting dramatically better than math.

我觉得存在这样一种情形，而且我深信不疑，也想押注其中：我们可能正在把未来 20 年的东西提前拉到现在——包括我们对技术风险的整套思维方式，以及“哦，那是科研项目，不是工程项目”这种判断。我认为我们现在就得重新审视这整个框架。因为如果你看看增长——我是说，数学并不是最后会被改变的东西。接下来还有物理。现在硬件领域正在发生很多事。

I think there's a scenario, and I believe this and I kind of want to invest behind it, where we may be pulling forward 20 years of things — our whole mindset of how we think about technical risk, and 'oh, that's a science project, not an engineering project.' I think we have to re-evaluate that whole frame right now. Because if you look at the growth of — I mean, math is not the last thing that's going to change. You're about to have physics. A lot of stuff's going on in hardware right now.

我觉得这非常剧烈。我认为一个 30 人的团队现在就能可信地打造一家全栈设备公司，而十年前你可能需要一千人，对吧？而且现在有这些非常深思熟虑、有深度的创业者，他们在琢磨：我该如何利用这些新能力去做一些惊天动地的事。其中一部分是战术性的，比如我该如何建立更强的护城河？你不想站在 AI 前沿前面两英尺的地方，被巨浪冲走。但很大一部分只是——你拥有这些惊人的新能力，而人们才刚刚开始探索你能做什么。所以这感觉是一个特别令人兴奋的时刻。

I think it's dramatic. I think a 30-person team can credibly build a full-stack device company in a way that you might have needed a thousand people a decade ago, right? And you have these very thoughtful, deep entrepreneurs who are looking for how do I take these new capabilities and do dramatic things. Some of it's tactical, like how do I create more defensibility? You don't want to be two feet in front of the AI frontier and get washed over by the tidal wave. But a lot of it's about just — you have these amazing new capabilities and people have only begun to explore what you can do. And so it feels like an especially exciting time.

是的。我想补充一点——谈谈 AI 作为一种催化剂。

Yeah. So I would add — talk about AI as a catalyst.

所以这是最大的差距——我会说，是早期采用者现在所理解的可能性，与普通人所理解的可能性之间的差距。我认为这在个人层面是成立的，但在公司层面尤其如此。AI 原生的早期创业公司对能用 AI 做什么的看法，与几乎任何行业里的典型在位企业完全不同——几乎无一例外。而且我认为这个差距是我职业生涯中见过的最大的。然后这个差距似乎还在越拉越大，因为 AI 的能力甚至每周都在突飞猛进。所以我们打交道的那些前沿创业者和技术人员，他们每周都在稳步变得比典型的在位企业更先进。所以这是我见过的最大的差距。

So this is the biggest delta between, I would say, what the early adopters understand is possible now versus what everybody, kind of normal people, understand. And I think that's true at the individual level, but it's especially true at the company level. The AI-native early-stage startups have just a completely different view on what they can do with AI than sort of typical incumbents in almost any industry — almost without exception. And I think that gap is as wide as I've ever seen in my career. And then that gap seems like it's gapping further and further out, because AI is just racing ahead in capability even week by week. And so the leading-edge entrepreneurs and technical people we deal with, they're just by the week getting steadily more advanced than a typical incumbent. So it's the biggest delta I've ever seen.

如果你由此推断——如果事情真是这样——那么将会有很多行业真的会变得可以被重新瓜分，而且是以一种比过去根本上更深刻的方式。这是因为创始人将拥有一种来自使用这些工具和技术的能力，一种他们过去根本没有的超级能力。我是说，如果——如果你和我在 1994 年的网景公司就有 Astra，天哪，你我在网景能做出什么？

And if you extrapolate from that — if that's what happens — then there are just going to be a lot of industries that are really up for grabs in a fundamentally more profound way than maybe has been the case in the past. And that's going to be because the founders are going to have a level of superpowers coming from the use of these tools and these technologies that they just simply haven't had in the past. I mean, had I had — had you and I had Astra in Netscape in 1994, like, oh my god, like, what would you and I have been able to do at Netscape?

我们会把整个互联网都建出来。我是说，绝对不可思议。那绝对不可思议。而且，就像 Chris 说的，我们看到创业者带着具有这种深度和复杂度的计划进来，多个部分相互连接。

We would have built the whole damn internet. I mean, absolutely incredible. It would be absolutely incredible. And, you know, as Chris said, we're seeing entrepreneurs come in with plans of a level of depth and sophistication, multiple parts connecting together.

顺便说一句，那我们那时候就把加密货币搞定了。哦，百分之百。是啊。顺便说一句，大概两周内，我们就能更早实现流媒体视频。我是说，各种各样的事情都会发生。然后，顺便说一句，硬件——我是说，我们从来没碰过硬件，但如果我们能，我们可以做各种各样的事情。

By the way, we would have gotten crypto done then. Oh, 100%. Yeah. Like, by the way, in like two weeks, we'd have streaming video a lot sooner. I mean, all kinds of things would have happened. And then, by the way, hardware — I mean, we never even bit off hardware, but had we been able to, there's all kinds of things we could have done.

所以我就觉得，现在的前沿创业者将拥有这些能力，这意味着他们的商业计划会更加——他们的产品计划会在技术上更加密集和复杂。他们的商业计划会更有野心、更复杂。他们要建立的公司会扩张得快得多——他们打造的产品范围，以及希望他们的业务范围。然后再回到这一点——那些创业者会大大地越界。他们不会——我们已经看到这一点——他们不会把自己想成“我只是个软件公司”或“我只是个硬件公司”或“我只是个什么什么”，甚至“我只是个 AI 公司”。他们会非常宽广、开阔地思考他们到底想触及多少个不同领域，以及他们想如何组合这些东西。所以这其中那种概念艺术家的层面将会大大扩展。

And so I just think that the leading-edge entrepreneurs now are going to have capabilities, which means they're going to have business plans that are a lot more — they're going to have product plans that are a lot more technically intensive and complex. They're going to have business plans that are more ambitious and complex. They're going to be building companies that ramp much, much faster — the scope of the product that they build and then hopefully the scope of their business. And then again, this goes right back to — those entrepreneurs are going to color way outside the lines. They're not going to — we already see this — they're not going to think of themselves as 'I'm just a software company' or 'I'm just a hardware company' or 'I'm just a whatever' or even 'I'm just an AI company.' They're going to think very broadly and expansively about exactly how many different areas they want to touch and how they want to combine things. And so the conceptual-artist aspect of this is going to blow way out.

是的，我正想说，我们过去常问的问题是：这个想法是不是太有野心了？而我不认为——我觉得我们现在更可能问的是：这够有野心吗？

Yeah, I was going to say, we used to kind of ask the question, is this idea too ambitious? And I don't think — I think we're much more likely to ask, is this ambitious enough?

因为可能性太惊人了。如果你做一件中规中矩的事，它很可能不够有差异化。顺便说一句，看看在位企业——我们花很多时间，顺便说一句，我在在位企业里有很多朋友，包括在位科技公司，包括硅谷的在位公司。我们祝他们一切顺利。顺便说一句，我们也有很多公司愿意用这些新工具把他们武装起来。所以毫无疑问，其中一些能够适应，但如果他们中有人正在听，我会说：时钟在滴答作响。事情在动。

Because what's possible is so spectacular. And if you do something moderate, it probably won't be differentiated enough. And by the way, look at incumbents — we spend a lot of time, I have a lot of friends in incumbent companies, by the way, including incumbent tech, including incumbent companies in Silicon Valley. And it's like, we wish them all the best. And by the way, we have lots of companies that would like to arm them up with all these new tools also. So no doubt some of them are going to be able to adapt, but if any of them are listening right now, I would say the clock is ticking. Stuff is moving.

我是说，我基本上——我全职——我现在基本上被发展的节奏淹没了，被事情变化的速度淹没了。我努力跟上这一切，而这几乎不可能。

I mean, I am basically — I'm full-time — I'm basically drowning with the pace of development right now and the speed with which things are changing. And I'm trying to keep up with all of it and it's nearly impossible.

就像，那个被 AI 超级赋能的 24 岁年轻人，在未来十年里将取得惊人的成就。

Like, the super-empowered 24-year-old with AI is going to just achieve amazing things in the next decade.

这也是我们在这之前刚问过的一个问题：AI 更多是延续性的还是颠覆性的，也就是说更多收益会流向在位者还是初创公司？到目前为止，某种意义上似乎两者兼有——像 Meta 这样的公司调整得非常好，同时也出现了在十年内做到近万亿美元的全新公司。所以你的判断也是这样，实际上两者兼有？还是你怎么看延续性与颠覆性这个问题？

And this is a question we were asking right before this: is AI more sustaining or disruptive, in terms of whether more of the gains go to incumbents or startups? And it seems so far it's both in some sense, which is, you know, companies like Meta and others have adjusted very well, and also there are net new companies that are almost a trillion dollars within a decade. So is that your read, that it's effectively both? Or how do you think about the sustaining-disruptive question?

嗯，那些在适应的在位者，其实大多是直接投入 AI 的在位者。然后还有别的公司，当然科技行业里有些公司即使不是主要的 AI 开发者，也处在最前沿。但至少现在，模式并不是那样。我是说，有一件很具体的事，我觉得也许可以留到另一期播客去聊。我认为正在发生一件很具体的事：很多公司并没有采用 AI，而它们的员工却在用。

Well, the incumbents that are adapting are actually the incumbents that, I think for the most part, are going directly into AI. And then there are others, and there are certain companies certainly in tech that are on the leading edge even if they're not primary AI developers. But at least right now the pattern is not that. I mean, there's a very specific thing that I think maybe is a topic for a different podcast. There's a very specific thing I think is happening, which is I think many companies are not adopting AI while their employees are.

而员工也不一定会告诉管理层正在发生什么。顺便说一句，我猜现在听这期播客的每一个人都在想：哦对，我就是这么干的。你知道，我用 AI 来做我所有的工作，或者至少可以说是用它来核查我所有的工作、校对所有的邮件，哪怕不是让 AI 直接写出来。

And their employees are not necessarily telling management what's happening. And by the way, I'm going to guess every single person listening to this podcast right now is thinking, oh yeah, that's what I'm doing. You know, I'm using AI to do all my work, or at least let's say fact-check all my work, proofread all my emails, even if not have them written outright.

所以就出现了这种奇怪的现象：现在的 AI 有个特点，个人采用它比机构采用它要容易得多。顺便说一句，这又回到我们在世界上扮演的角色——其中一些个人会意识到：哦，有了这个工具，我现在可以自己创业了。现在对我来说，创业比以往任何时候都容易。

And so there's this weird thing where there's something about AI right now where it's much easier for the individual to adopt than it is for the institution. And by the way, again it goes back to our role in the world, which is that some of those individuals are going to figure out, oh, with this tool I can now start my own business. It's now easier than ever for me to start my own business.

所以我认为，创业公司的成立数量会从这里开始飙升。因为这些——

And so I think startup formation is going to skyrocket from here. Because these—

顺便说一句，它已经在飙升了。

By the way, it already is.

哦对。我是说，我们看到了。我们百分之百看到了。所以总之，回到这个主题：我完全确信，我们会看到一波技术上都更具进攻性、商业上都更具进攻性、更具扩张性的创造性原创思维，会出现更多把过去我们认为彼此分离的事物组合起来的情况。

Oh yeah. I mean, we're seeing it. We're seeing it 100% for sure. So anyway, just to go back to the theme of this, I'm completely convinced we're going to see a wave of much more technically aggressive, much more business aggressive, much more expansionist creative original thinking, many more combinations of things that we would have considered to be separate things in the past.

我们会看到创始人和团队拥有一种惊人的技能水平，而这种水平他们本来可能需要 30 年才能达到。他们一上来就会拥有。

And we're going to see founders and teams with just an incredible level of skill that they otherwise might have needed 30 years to achieve. They're going to have it right out of the gate.

顺便说一句，我还想说另一点：克里斯坦森的颠覆性创新框架假设技术世界是相对封闭的，是这些公司在互相竞争。

And by the way, the other thing I'd say is that the Christensen disruptive innovation frame assumes that the technology world is relatively contained and that these are companies fighting with each other.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得现在这大概是错误的框架。真正发生的是，技术现代化的人走向其他行业，更广泛地改变整个经济。

I think it's probably the wrong frame right now, which is it's really people who are technologically modern going out into other industries and just changing the economy more broadly.

对，没错。尤其是这些全栈公司。你去打造一个完整的——我们刚宣布了对 Adams 的投资，他们正在打造一种全栈式的餐饮服务和其他东西，对吧？

Yeah. Right. Especially with these full-stack companies. You go and you create a full—we just announced our investment in Adams, like they're going and they're building a full-stack kind of food service and other things, right?

所以我觉得，你有时候会谈到这一点：市场某种程度上已经从 10 大科技公司互相竞争，变成了 10 家科技公司和所有初创公司一起去对抗其他《财富》500 强公司或经济的其余部分。

And so I think that, you talk about this sometimes, like the market has sort of gone from the 10 big tech companies fighting with each other to the 10 tech companies and all the startups going against the other Fortune 500 or the rest of the economy.

对，对，没错。

Yeah. Yeah, that's right.

我很好奇你们觉得我们现在处在发展的哪个阶段，或者你们怎么看——因为感觉在互联网时代，应用层最大的公司是 Facebook、亚马逊等等。但在当下这个时代，感觉英伟达和一些更偏硬件的公司拿走了大量利润，或者说一些更大的公司。你们怎么看我们现在的位置？我们是在应用层还是消费层？你怎么看？

I'm curious where you guys think we are in the development, or how you—because it feels like in the internet era, applications, the biggest companies were Facebook, Amazon, etc. But in this era it feels like Nvidia and some of the more hardware companies are taking a lot of the margin, or some of the bigger companies. How do you think about where we are? Are we in the applications or consumer layer? How do you think about that?

我想马克会说以上全都是。我觉得很多人也这么认为。实际上现在看起来很多东西都在奏效。显然是大 AI 实验室，但开源也在非常非常快地增长。显然中国有认真的投入，美国也有认真的投入。很多应用层的东西做得非常好。所以也许在某个时点，显然随着时间推移，这会逐渐明朗，价值链上某些层会比另一些层表现更好。

I think Mark would say all of the above. And I think a lot of people think that. Actually right now it seems like a lot of stuff is working. Obviously the big AI labs, but open source is growing very, very quickly. There are obviously the serious efforts in China, the serious efforts in the US. A lot of application-layer things are doing really well. So maybe at some point, obviously over time, that shakes out and the value chain—there are certain layers that do better than others.

然后另一点是，它仍然——这有点疯狂。按大多数指标衡量，对很多东西的需求仍然处于非常早期的阶段。

And then the other thing is, it's still—it's kind of crazy. The demand for a lot of this stuff is still very early by most metrics.

是的。

Yep.

我记得你们团队刚发布了一些相关图表。大概是企业使用率的 3% 左右，或者类似这样的数字。

I think your team just put out some charts on this. It's like 3% of measured enterprise use or something like this.

所以这很难说，而且看起来智能的市场非常非常大，而且才刚刚开始。所以，嗯，我也说不准。

And so it's just hard, and it just seems like the market for intelligence is very, very large and it's only getting started. So yeah, I don't know.

对，我同意。

Yeah, I agree.

你的一个观点也是，你提到每项新技术都有这样一个第一阶段，人们会思考旧的用例是什么，如何用新技术来做这些事，然后当然人们会想出原生於该技术的全新用例。那么我们在这个阶段处于什么位置？

And one of your points also is, you mentioned that every new technology has this sort of first phase where people think about what are the old use cases, how they just do the new technology, and then of course people figure out net new cases that are native to that technology. So where are we there?

是的，我喜欢用的经典例子是互联网，对吧？在 90 年代，人们把现有的行为搬上网，比如你可能订购 Sears 的商品目录，然后 Sears 把它放到互联网上。当然，当他们这样做时，你会想用互联网版本，因为它更方便。早期互联网很多都是这样。然后到了 2000 年代，出现了 YouTube，他们上线一个空网站，说好吧，总有一天会出现 YouTube 网红来填充这个网站。所以他们赌的是——他们不只是赌技术，把已知可行的事情搬过来，对吧？他们赌的是文化变革或行为变革。所以某种程度上他们承担了更多风险，因为他们赌的是技术和这些更广泛的变化。但正是在那里，你得到了真正改变世界的东西，比如 2000 年代的社交媒体。当然，移动端加速了它。我认为这是一个相当常见的模式，这就是人性，对吧？你构建了某个东西，你做的第一件事就是用更好的方式做你已知的事情。我认为这就是我们在 AI 中迄今为止看到的，人们已经在编程，已经在做数学，已经在做知识工作，已经习惯了搜索引擎并且有点讨厌它们，现在他们正在做这些事情。但我们才刚刚开始探索那些激进的新行为、新活动的空间，对吧？人们从未做过的事情。看起来我们可能正处于那个临界点。我相信我们正处在一个临界点，我们将开始看到更疯狂、更奇怪的东西，我个人对此非常兴奋，我一直觉得技术中的这些浪潮最令人兴奋。它们有更多层次的风险。回到前沿，你会发现有些是更直接的射门，有些是那种需要多个条件同时满足的反弹球，也许有更多层次的风险，但如果你对了，也有更多上行空间。

Yeah, I mean, like the classic example I like to use is the internet, right? Where in the '90s you had people taking existing behaviors, like you might order a Sears catalog or something, and instead Sears puts it on the internet. And of course when they do that, you want to use the internet version, it's easier. And a lot of the early internet was like that. And then you had, you know, in the 2000s you had YouTube, and they come along and they put up an empty website and they say, well, someday there's going to be these YouTube influencers and that's going to populate the site. So they were betting on—they weren't just betting on the technology and taking something they knew would work, right? They were betting on a cultural change or behavioral change. So in some ways they were taking more risk because they were betting on the technology and these broader changes. But that's where you got the really world-changing stuff, in the 2000s social media. And then of course mobile accelerated it. And I think that's a—my own view is that's a pretty common pattern, and it's just human nature, right? You build something and the first thing you do is you do these things you already know in a better way. And I think that's what we've seen in AI so far, where you have people already coded, people already did math, people already did knowledge work, people already were used to search engines and sort of semi-hating them, and they're doing those things now. But we've only begun to explore the space of what are the radical things that are new behaviors, new activities, right? Things that people have never done before. It seems like we're probably at that tip. I believe we're kind of at that tipping point where we're going to start to see the crazier, weirder stuff, which I personally am very excited about and I always find those waves in technology the most personally exciting. They're kind of more—and there's sort of more layers of risk. Going back to frontier, like you can find some things will be more direct shots on goal and other things will be these kinds of bank shots where you have to have multiple things go right and maybe there's more layers of risk but maybe if you're right there's more upside as well.

是的，我非常兴奋。在社交领域，2000 年代时每隔几年就会出现一个新的主要网络：有 Facebook、Snap、TikTok。然后感觉社交方面有点匮乏，但有了 AI，感觉这是不可避免的。当然还有 Tinder 约会，已经有一段时间没有新东西了。感觉不可避免的是，嘿，如果有一个我把我所有信息都交给它的界面或设备，那么总会有某种方式把它们连接起来，开启一整套全新的社交体验。

Yeah, I'm really excited. In social, it used to be in the 2000s like every few years there was a new major network: there was Facebook, Snap, TikTok. And then it felt like there was a little bit of a dearth on the social side, but with AI it does feel inevitable. And dating with Tinder, of course, and there hasn't been something in a while. It feels inevitable that hey, if there's this interface or device that I'm giving all my information to, that there's going to be some way that these are hooked up and enabling a whole new set of social experiences.

嗯，你可以谈谈这个，Mark，但我们正走向一个世界，看起来互联网上最多的参与者将是智能体而不是人。我们处于早期阶段，但这似乎有些不可避免。你有像 Muse 和 Instinct 这样的产品，它们是人们的实用代理智能体。然后你会——我认为你会看到这些智能体的各种不同类别，它们将成为互联网的主要参与者。然后会有一些问题，比如它们是否需要自己的沟通、交易、分享知识和做所有人类做的事情的方式。所以可能会沿着这些方向出现一系列创新。

Well, I mean, you can talk about this Mark, but we're headed to a world where it looks like the most numerous participants on the internet will be agents and not people. We're in early phases of that but it seems somewhat inevitable. You have these products like Muse and Instinct that are sort of utility proxy agents for people. And then you're going to—I think you'll see a whole different sets of categories of these agents and they'll become the main participants on the internet. And then there's questions of like, will they need their own ways of communicating and transacting and sharing knowledge and doing all the things people do. And so it's probably going to be a whole series of innovations along those lines.

Rent a human.com。是的，租一个人。这就像颠倒了模式，对吧？

Rent a human.com. Yeah, rent a human. That's like inverts the model, right?

Moltbook 也很酷。

Moltbook was cool, too.

是的。是的，完全正确。那是——嗯，你知道，是的。Moltbook 是公开版本，然后事实证明智能体们自己搞懂了如何做它们自己的——

Yeah. Yeah, totally. That's—well, you know, yeah. Moltbook was the public kind of version and then it turned out the agents figured out how to do their own—

Hugging Face 里的 moltbook。所以，是的，会有更多。是的，网上的智能体生态将非常壮观。人们会以各种方式接入其中。

The moltbook in the Hugging Face. So, yeah, it's going to be a lot more. Yeah, the agent ecology online is going to be spectacular. People are going to plug into that in all kinds of ways.

是的，Mark，我很好奇你是否在关注社交或消费领域的一些东西，或者甚至就是这个框架，比如拟物化的，你知道，过去在平台时代奏效的东西，现在你看到或期待或期待看到哪些全新的用例或原生於这个时代的东西？

Yeah, Mark, I'm curious if there are things that you're tracking either in social or consumer or even just this frame of like the skeuomorphic, you know, things that sort of worked in the past, sort of the platform era, and now like what net new use cases or what is native to that you're seeing or anticipating or looking forward to?

好吧，我给出我的版本，可能有点像 Chris 说的，但我觉得很多——我的意思是，现在有很多很棒的演示，很多很棒的产品发布，但我观察到一件事。我早些时候看到了互联网时代，我称之为产品经理大脑。也就是说，产品经理基本上是在为产品经理设计产品，对吧？就像——顺便说一句，每个人都会做的一件事就是为自己构建产品。产品经理有故事说他们在为别人构建产品。但不知何故，所有用例都是，你知道，帮我订一家旧金山的餐厅，去和我的产品经理朋友们吃饭，或者帮我订一张去参加产品管理会议的机票，在那里我也可以和我的产品经理朋友们一起玩。所以就有这种——你知道，这有点——再说一次，这有它的作用，但它有点像——我觉得就像 Anthropic 的——我是个什么来着？我是个快乐、有帮助、有害、无害——我是个快乐、无害，不管是什么。诚实的助手，对吧？这有点——这也意味着我是你能想象到的最无聊的东西，会不断地教训我。你问了我一个我不被允许回答的问题，对吧？所以就像——我们刚刚有这种非常——早期公司的本质就是它们对人类活动、人们想做什么有着非常狭隘的看法。就像你说的，有了 Muse 和 Instinct，它开始开放了。但你看，这将更加有趣、好玩、愉快、令人兴奋——顺便说一句，有利可图。人们会赚钱。人们会有各种方式赚钱。

Well, I'll give you my version, maybe a little bit of what Chris was saying, but like I think so many—I mean look, there's a lot of great demos, a lot of great products releasing right now, but there's this thing I've just observed. I saw the internet era earlier and I call it product manager brain. Which is, product manager is basically designing products for product managers, right? It's like—by the way, it's the one thing everybody does is they build products for themselves. Product managers have the story that they're building for other people. And yet somehow all the use cases are, you know, book me a restaurant to eat in San Francisco to go have dinner with my friends who are also product managers, or book me a plane flight to go to a product management conference where I also get to hang out with all my product manager friends. And so there's this—you know, it's a little—and again there's a role for this, but it's a bit like—I think it's like the Anthropic—I'm a what is it? I'm a happy, helpful, harmful, harmless—I'm a happy, harmless, whatever it is. Honest assistant, right? And it's a little—which also means I'm the most boring possible thing you could possibly imagine that's going to be constantly lecturing me. You've asked me a question I'm not allowed to answer, right? And so it's like there's just going to be this—we just had this very—just the nature of the early companies who just had this very blinkered view on human activity, what people are going to want to do. And it's to your point, like with Muse and Instinct, it's starting to open up. But like look, this is going to be a much more entertaining, fun, enjoyable, exciting—by the way, lucrative. People are going to make money. There'll be all kinds of ways for people to make money.

你知道，能够省钱，能够成为……的一部分，参与经济的一部分，能够成为创作者，能够创造新种类的艺术。我的意思是，就在过去三周左右，人们制作音乐视频的数量激增，比如 Denovo。

You know, be able to save money, be able to be parts of, you know, participate in parts of the economy, be able to be creators, you know, be able to, uh, you know, create new kinds of art. I mean, just in the last like three weeks, there's been an explosion of people making music videos like Denovo.

是的。

Yeah.

在令人难以置信的各种创意想法和主题上，比如视频游戏在过去三周里爆发了。

On like an incredible array of like creative ideas and topics like video games in the last three weeks have blown up.

我们能提一下那个吗？因为那太惊人了。

Can we mention that just because that's so striking?

是的，我的意思是，我一直觉得视频游戏很有趣，因为它们往往是媒体的前沿，因为这是一种技术文化，迭代很快。但我刚看到一个，比如你可以拿任何两个视频……嗯，首先你可以反汇编一切，移植它们，现在有疯狂的事情发生，比如你可以在 Unix 上运行 Windows 游戏比在 Windows 上更快，因为这些反汇编器和 AI 太厉害了。嗯，但还有这样一个，你可以拿任何两个视频游戏，它会将它们混搭在一起，创建一个组合视频游戏，你知道，就像一种疯狂的新行为。

Yeah, I mean I always think I always find video games interesting because they're kind of the lead, I find they're often the leading edge of media because it's just a technical culture that kind of iterates quickly. But like the I just saw one where it's like you can take any two video well first of all you can disassemble everything port them and just crazy stuff going on now where you can now run like Windows games on Unix faster than on Windows like because of these disassemblers and these AIs are so good. Um, but also there was like this one where you can take any two video games and it will mash them up together and create a combo video game of it, which you know, just like a crazy new behavior.

超级马里奥和 GTA，

Super Mario and GTA,

对吧？

Right?

蜘蛛侠和侏罗纪公园。

Spider-Man and Jurassic Park.

嗯，这简直疯狂，就像马克说的，我想大概两周左右。好像是从 Opus 55 之类的开始。所以就是这种事情发生的速度，比如一个月后可能会有其他，你知道，两周后会有另一波大浪潮。嗯，你看到 Epic 昨天说不再需要人类了，对吧？所以，是的，视频游戏行业对 AI 有文化上的抵制，但我认为这是多米诺骨牌的第一张，因为这是不可避免的，因为这是一种更好的构建方式，对消费者来说会很好。你会有这个

Um, and it's just and it's literally the crazy like to Mark's point, it's been I think like two weeks or something. It was like since what like Opus 55 or something. Um, and so it's just like the rate at which this stuff is happening and like what in a month there'll probably be some other, you know, two weeks there'll be some other big wave of this. Um, uh, you see Epic just yesterday said no more humans, right? And so like, yeah, there's been cultural resistance in the video game industry to AI, but like I think that's the first of the dominoes to fall because it's just inevitable because it's a much better way to build things and you're going to it's going to be great for consumers. You're going to have this

我认为这将是一场创意复兴。你会有这个，你知道，任何独立开发者都可以去构建，就像他们有一个巨大的团队一样，嗯，而且我认为他们仍然可以……人类创造力还有很大空间。这只是……这是人类创造力的超能力。嗯

I think it's going to be a creative renaissance. you're going to have this, you know, any independent developer can go and build like they have a huge team and um and and still have I think they can still have there's a lot of room for human creativity. It just it's a it's a is superpowers human creativity. Um

所以我认为你提到了电影。嗯，哦是的，那可能需要更长时间。我不知道那是什么时候，那在哪里，你知道，那个死亡之门 meme 之类的，我不知道是哪个门，但是

So I think I think you were mentioning movies. Well, oh yeah, that might take longer. I don't know when that when that where that is on the you know the the or that that death door meme or whatever like I don't know which door it is but

你可以很快地打响指。我只是完全……我完全迷上了这部电影，这部上映的《Digger》，我简直是唯一看过它的人。你百分之百会在前半小时后想走出去。就像你会想……我有一个朋友真的带……我有一个朋友带她妈妈去看

you can snap it quite quickly. I just I'm completely I was giving I'm completely obsessed with the movie this movie Digger that came out and I'm like literally the only person who saw it. You will be 100% tempted to walk out after the first half hour. Like you you will want to I I have a friend who literally took I have a friend who took her mother to see it

他们前半小时后就走了，现在家里的笑话是哦《Digger 2》上映了，我们去电影院吧，你知道，就因为这是个滑稽的想法，但很多人都有过这种经历，但如果你真的看完整部电影，他们这样做是有原因的，不是你想的那样，我不想剧透，但根本不是它呈现的那样。非常巧妙。嗯，不管怎样，但就像，你知道，这是不可思议的创意成就，但它是工作室 2 亿美元的现金损失，但这是因为它的制作预算有 1.8 亿美元。嗯，所以就像 AI，如果那部电影的制作预算是 2000 万美元，或者 200 万或 200 万美元的制作预算，对吧？那种艺术和创意水平以更低的价格会很棒。作为商业，顺便说一句，作为商业，那部电影在 200 万美元预算下会非常有利可图。会让投资者赚回 10 倍的钱。嗯，所以是的，娱乐业将开辟巨大的空间。然后另一个，你知道，克里斯，你和我长期以来一直涉足硬件。就像我的整个职业生涯，你知道，硬件，我是软件人。硬件一直是未知的恐怖，就像，你知道，那里有龙，对吧？就像进入硬件很容易让公司爆炸。然后再次，你的观点，就在过去三周。所以这个开源工具发布了，叫做 REA，逆向工程任何东西。这个东西利用 AI 模型，你指向任何东西，它就会逆向工程并给你源代码。现在你可以逆向工程的东西之一就是任何硬件，

and they walked out after the first half hour and now the running joke in the family is oh digger 2 is out. let's, you know, let's head to the theater, you know, just because it's such a comical idea, but so like a lot of people have had that, but if you actually watch the entire movie, there's a reason why they did what they did, and it's not what you think it is, and I don't want to spoil it, but like it's not it's not the way it is is presented at all. It's very clever. Um, anyway, but but like, you know, it's it's so it's this incredible creative achievement, but it's a $200 million like cash loss for the for for for the studio, but it's that's because it had like $180 million production budget. Um, and so it's like with AI, what if that movie had had a $20 million production budget and what if it had made, you know, or a two or a $2 million production budget, right? Like that that level of art and creativity um at a lower price would have been great. As a business, by the way, as a business thing would have been f two million that that movie on a $2 million budget would have been insanely profitable. Would have been made the investors back 10 times their money. Um, and so yeah, there's there's a huge thing that's going to open up in in the entertainment business. And then the other one, you know, Chris, you and I have have sort of, you know, been in and around hardware for a long time. like my whole career, you know, hardware, you know, for I'm a software person. Hardware has always been like terror incognito, which is like, you know, there are dragons there, right? Like it's just it's been so easy to blow up companies by going into hardware. And then again, your point like just in the last 3 weeks. So this this open source tool dropped called REA, reverse engineer anything. And it's this thing harnesses an AI model and you point it at anything, it'll reverse engineer it and give you source code. And one of the things that you can reverse engineer now is any piece of hardware,

对吧？所以你家里有一个恒温器让你恼火，因为它工作不正常。你可以把这个东西指向恒温器，逆向工程它，然后 AI 会为你写新代码并安装，并在恒温器中放入新界面。

right? And so you have a thermostat that's like pissing you off in your house because it's not like working right. You can point this thing at the thermostat, reverse engineer it, and and the AI will write you new code and install it and put a new interface in the thermostat.

基本上任何东西都是如此，基本上任何形式的硬件现在都可以被这些东西接管和重新编程。所以突然之间就像……我的意思是，你把这些空间……我不知道是否有人已经在做这个，但就像家庭自动化，家庭自动化一直是一个完全噩梦般的市场，对客户来说实施起来也是。如果有人做过任何新房建造，那简直是噩梦。但家庭自动化也许应该只是一个 AI 机器人，它接管你家里所有的硬件，并按照你想要的方式运行。我有朋友现在就在自己家里这样做。嗯，所以我们可能正在进入……我们正在进入一场复兴。一种思考方式是，任何懂软件的人可能自动就能做很多历史上在硬件中困难的事情，以一种以前从未想象过的方式。嗯，所以是的，就是……是的。然后你这种乘法效应，你知道这些是离科技最近的领域，但然后你就扩展出去，你只是觉得基本上整个经济都对这种东西开放了。现在

And the same thing is true for ba basically anything like basically any form of hardware can now be taken over and reprogrammed with with this stuff. And so all of a sudden it's just like I mean I mean you take all these spaces I don't if anybody's doing this yet, but like just home automation is home automation's always been a complete nightmare of a market and and to implement as a customer. If anybody's ever done any sort of, you know, new house build, it's just a nightmare. But like home automation maybe should just be an AI bot that just like takes over all the hardware in your house and runs it however it is that you want to do that. And I I have friends that are literally doing this like right now in their in their own homes. Um, and so there is we we are potentially entering here like we're entering a renaissance. One way to think about it is like any anybody who understands software may sort of automatically be able to do a lot of the things that historically have been difficult in hardware um in a way that's just never been conceivable before. Um and so yeah, it just Yeah. And then you this sort of multiplicative thing you know these you know these are kind of the fields that are like closest into tech but then you just you know you you you expand out and you just you kind of think bas you know the entire economy is kind of uh open for for this kind of thing. Now

本，有没有任何你看到或希望看到的原生 AI 用例，或者我们尚未讨论的前沿领域？

Ben are there any uh any native uh AI native use cases that you're seeing or or are hoping to see or frontier uh sort of spaces that you we haven't discussed?

嗯，我认为那是一次非常好的讨论。

Well that I think that was a really good discussion.

我觉得关键在于这些新事物很难预测，因为它们是全新的。有趣的是电影行业的反应——有些人真的拥抱了它，而另一些人则把头埋在沙子里。但我认为电影会发生的是会出现一种新媒体。我认为 AI 电影不会是一部电影，而会是非常非常不同的东西。然后 AI 也会被用来更高效地制作常规电影，并带来更好的特效等等。但如果你拥有这个东西，你能讲述的故事将与以往完全不同。以前这根本不可行。我的意思是，对克里斯托弗·诺兰来说都勉强可行，但他是唯一能做到的人。其他人都没有机会，而现在每个人都能做到。然后会出现新的想法，因为你可以做任何你想做的事。

I think to me the key is that these are going to be hard to anticipate because they're brand new things. It's funny how the film industry has reacted—some people have really embraced it, and then there's a bunch of people who have buried their head in the sand. But I think what's going to happen with movies is there's going to be a new media. I think the AI film is not going to be a movie; it's going to be something very, very different. And then AI will also be used to make regular movies more efficiently and with better special effects and so forth. But the stories you can tell if you have this thing are just completely different than what you could ever tell before. It just hasn't been viable. I mean, it's barely been viable for Christopher Nolan, but he's the one guy who could do it. But nobody else had a chance, and now everybody's going to be able to do it. And then there will be new ideas that come because you could do whatever you want.

是的。我总是想到摄像机。所以摄像机在负面框架上被发明出来。负面的版本，我想，如果你是一个画风景画的人，它可能会取代你。正面的框架是它解锁了电影。没有它，你不可能有电影，对吧？所以很多这些技术既会改变一种旧的媒体形式，也会让人们发明一种新的形式。用本的话说，我不知道它是什么，但我敢打赌会有一种 AI 原生的媒体形式。人们会用 AI 拍电影，但他们也会做一些我们现在可能难以想象的事情。那将是全新的。

Yeah. I always think of the camera. So the camera on the negative frame of the camera's invented. The negative version I guess is if you're somebody who paints landscapes or something, it could replace you. The positive frame is it unlocks motion pictures. You couldn't have had that without that, right? And so a lot of these technologies will both change an older form of media, but then also allow people to invent a new one. To Ben's point, I don't know what it is, but I bet you there's an AI native form of media. People will make movies with AI, but they'll also do things that are probably hard for us to imagine right now. That'll be brand new.

是的。才华横溢的彼得·蒂尔曾经说过一句话，我想大约十年前，他说加密货币是自由意志主义的，AI 是共产主义的，意思是加密货币是去中心化的，AI 是中心化的。但考虑到我们正在讨论的 AI 如何提供如此多的杠杆和力量，使得一人公司或 30 人公司能够做到以前几个数量级的事情，我不确定这完全正确。

Yeah. The brilliant Peter Thiel once had this quote, I think a decade ago or something, where he said, crypto is libertarian, AI is communist, which meant crypto is decentralizing, AI is centralizing. But I'm not sure that's entirely true given the conversation we're having about how AI gives so much leverage and so much power where one-person companies or 30-person companies can do orders of magnitude what they could do prior.

是的，是的。我认为这其中嵌入了许多有趣的问题。一个是 AI 的最终市场结构是什么？我认为目前的发展方向是，你会看到非常成功的大型 OpenAI 和 Anthropic，但你也看到开源正在大幅崛起——如果你看看 OpenRouter 的数据，开源在 token 消耗方面增长得更快，我相信。然后我们还没有真正看到，但我认为我们可能会看到所有趋势都在那里，那就是本地模型——人们在边缘运行这些东西，在电脑上运行它们。也许在短期内，你可以在电脑上运行一个顶级的编码智能体或聊天机器人之类的。所以我认为对于更广泛地去中心化的市场结构来说，有很多机会。然后在加密货币方面，我认为加密货币可以发挥重要作用。当你有一个智能体经济时，它们相互支付的自然方式将是稳定币。

Yeah, yeah. I think there's all these interesting questions embedded in that. One is, what is the end final market structure of AI? I think where it's headed right now is you're going to have very successful big OpenAIs and Anthropics, but you're also seeing a really big rise in open source—if you look at the OpenRouter data, open source is growing, I believe much more quickly in terms of token consumption. And then we haven't really seen yet, and I think we may see with all the trends are there, which is local models—people running these things at the edges, running them on their computer. Maybe in the near term you can run a top-end coding agent on your computer or chatbot or something like that. So I think there's a lot of opportunity for a market structure that's more broadly decentralized like that. And then in terms of crypto, I think crypto can play an important role. The natural way when you have an economy of agents for them to pay each other would be stablecoins.

是的。然后在此基础上，一旦你有了可编程货币的基础层，你就会构建去中心化借贷以及人们在加密世界中构建的所有其他东西。所以这些都是开放的问题。我认为这正是它令人兴奋的地方，也是我们乐于施加影响的事情。我认为我们坚信开源软件、开放权重模型，以及加密货币，显然还有区块链。我希望看到这样一个未来版本：拥有所有这些伟大的技术，包括这些大型中心化公司，但也有大量的开源，形成一个公平的竞争环境。我认为消费者有这样的选择更好，初创公司有这样的选择更好，所以我们将尽我们所能，希望能推动事情朝那个方向发展。

Yeah. And then on top of that, once you have that base layer of programmable money, you would build decentralized lending and all the other things that people have built out in the crypto world. And so these are all open questions. I think it's what makes it kind of exciting and something we'd love to have an influence on. I think we're big believers in open source software, open-weight models, and crypto obviously blockchains. And I think I would love to see a version of this future that has all this great technology including these big centralized companies but also a lot of open source, a kind of level playing field. I think it's better for consumers to have options like that, it's better for startups to have options like that, and so we'll do what we can to hopefully nudge things that way.

说到这个，你们对开源目前的状态感到鼓舞吗？从技术角度，也从它的认知度以及整个行业的成功来看？

On that note, are you guys encouraged with where this sort of state of open source is currently from a technological perspective but also from a sort of just how it's perceived and how the success of the industry in general?

我的意思是，现在很好。现在开源正在飞速发展。你有一个很好的动态：我们这个时代的两个科技超级大国是美国和中国，两国都有非常活跃的开源世界，此外还有公司在构建专有系统。一直存在这种迫在眉睫的威胁——我的意思是，我们过去讨论过这个——过去三四年一直存在这种迫在眉睫的威胁，即某种我认为是严厉且完全不可接受的监管或禁止开源，政府中的各种人一直在威胁。我认为欧盟仍然渴望这样做；他们只是没有足够的杠杆。我猜，就是威胁每个人罚款，直到我们停止这样做。但现任美国政府 100% 支持开源，一直非常令人鼓舞。事实上，非常如此——现任政府 100% 希望美国开源发生并在全球赢得 AI。中国人也是——顺便说一句，对我来说一个大惊喜是，我从未想过中国共产党会如此热衷于为世界开源 AI，但目前他们确实如此。所以目前简直不可思议。就像绝对惊人。然后开源模型正在超越闭源模型 6 个月、12 个月，取决于你怎么算。

I mean right now it's great. Right now open source is racing ahead. You got this great dynamic where the two great tech superpowers of our age are the US and China, both have very active open source worlds in addition to companies building proprietary systems. There's been this looming threat—I mean, we've talked about this in the past—there's been this looming threat for the last three or four years of a level of what I would consider to be draconian and completely unacceptable regulation or banning of open source that various folks in governments have been threatening. I think the EU still aspires to do it; they just don't quite have the leverage. Threaten everybody with fines until we stop doing it, I guess. But the current US administration is 100% pro open source, has been very encouraging. In fact, very much so—100% the current administration wants American open source to happen and to win AI globally. The Chinese also—and by the way, a big surprise to me is I would have never thought the Chinese Communist Party would be this enthusiastic about open source AI for the world, but at the moment they are. And so at the moment it's just incredible. Like it's just absolutely amazing. And then the open models are lapping the closed models by 6 months, 12 months depending on how you count.

然后顺便说一句，关于教育方面——我也总是想，当人们谈论禁止开源或监管开源时，他们会说，你知道，它会被用于坏事，有那一整套讨论。但另一方面是：我们是否希望人们学习这些东西如何运作？我们是否希望人们理解它并能够应对它，顺便说一句，能够真正理解出现的问题以及如何解决它们？我们是否希望下一代孩子真正理解这些东西是如何发生的？比如，如果学习 AI——如果你的孩子学习 AI 的唯一方式是去两家公司之一工作，你会怎么想？作为父母，我认为那可能会把你逼疯。

And then by the way, the educational part of this—I also always think when people talk about banning open source or regulating it, they're like, you know, it's going to get used for bad things, and there's that whole discussion. But the other is: do we want people to learn how this stuff works? Do we want people to understand it and be able to deal with it, and by the way, be able to actually understand the problems as they arise and how to fix them? Do we want the next generation of kids to actually understand how this stuff happens? Like, what if—to learn about AI—how would you feel if the only way your kid could learn about AI is to go to work for one of two companies? As a parent, I think that would probably drive you pretty crazy.

嗯，而在开源的世界里，每个孩子都能学习这些东西如何运作，这实际上很神奇。关于 AI 有一件被严重低估的事情是，AI 会教你关于 AI 的知识。

Um, whereas in a world of open source, like every kid can learn how this stuff works and it's actually amazing. One of the really underestimated things about AI is AI will teach you about AI.

嗯，有一个例外，某些大公司的 AI 模型实际上会拒绝这样做，这很有趣。嗯，但开源模型 100% 会教你如何制作开源 AI。嗯，所以我认为世界上的每个孩子都应该天生拥有充分理解和利用这项技术的能力。顺便说一句，保护自己。那么 Hugging Face 是如何保护自己的？开源软件。我的意思是，开源意味着每个人都拥有最先进的漏洞扫描器来保护自己免受网络攻击。是的。每个人口袋里都有一位医生和一位天才教授。你懂我的意思吗？

Well, with one exception, which is that the AI models from certain of the large companies actually will refuse to do that, which is sort of very interesting. Um, but the open source models 100% will teach you how to make open source AI. Um, and so every kid in the world I think should have as their birthright the ability to like fully understand and utilize this technology. By the way, defend yourself. So like how did Hugging Face defend themselves? Open source software. I mean, like open source means everyone has the most advanced vulnerability scanner to protect themselves from cyber. Yep. Everyone has a doctor and a genius professor in their pocket. You know I mean?

是的。

Yep.

这就是为什么我们拥有——为什么互联网无处不在。你可以用 10 美元的手机获得互联网访问和所有世界信息，因为开源。所以，本，有一件事很快就开始了——一件事是，荒野探险者开始把本地 LMS 完全加载到手机上，不需要互联网连接。嗯，原因是，如果他们遇到——你知道，我不知道是不是像——我不知道，随便——如果一只熊——我不知道在荒野中会发生什么，但我不——

It's how we have—why the internet's ubiquitous. You can get internet access with all the world information for the price of a $10 cell phone because of open source. So, one of the things that started real quickly, Ben—one of the things that started is like wilderness explorers are starting to take local LMS with them on their phones completely loaded up to not require internet connection. Um, and the reason is cuz like if they get like in a—you know, I don't know if like—I don't know whatever—if a bear—I don't know what happens in the wilderness, but I don't—

嗨，被响尾蛇咬了。

Hi, bit by a rattlesnake.

被响尾蛇咬了，熊咬住你的腿不放，或者不管发生什么鬼事情。你得分辨哪种熊有毒之类的。就像你想和 AI 对话，但你可能没有网络连接。所以手机上的开源模型突然就像你有一位教授专家——我猜是荒野生存的所有方面——嗯，或者什么的，对吧？而如果你依赖少数专有供应商，一切都在云端运行，你就不会有这种能力水平。所以是的，目前我感觉很好。我仍然担心世界各地的各种政府会对此变得敌对，顺便说一句，这又回到你提到的彼得·蒂尔的框架，即没有开源，AI 不可避免地会集中化。并且不可避免地集中到一两家公司，或者干脆就是政府，对吧？我想问人们以下问题：闭上眼睛，想象政府寿司的概念。嗯，然后保持眼睛闭上，想象政府 AI，你知道，你感觉如何？嗯，开源是保证那不是未来的保障。

Bit by a rattlesnake, bear clamps on your leg and won't like go, or whatever the hell it is that happens. You got to tell which bear is poisonous or whatever. It's like you want to be able to talk to an AI but you might not have connectivity. And so an open source model on the phone all of a sudden is just like you have like a, you know, professor expert on—I guess all aspects of wilderness survival—um, or what, right? And that's a level of capability that you would not have if you were reliant on a handful of proprietary vendors where everything's running in the cloud. And so yeah, at the moment I feel really good about it. I am still worried that the various governments around the world are going to really kind of get hostile to this, and by the way it goes back to your Peter Thiel framing, which is like without open source AI inevitably centralizes. And inevitably centralizes down to, you know, one or two companies or maybe just flat out the government, right? And I guess I would ask people the following question, which is just close your eyes and picture the concept of government sushi. Um, and then keep your eyes closed and picture government AI, and you know, how do you feel about that? Um, and open source is the guarantor that that's not the future.

是的。我的意思是，针对马克的观点，我认为我们知道的一件事是，世界上总是导致坏事的是权力的巨大集中。你知道，一家公司、一个政府、一个——当任何一个东西——总是坏的。但你知道，回到开源的观点，如果你看看现在 AI 的问题，安全问题等等，可能最大的安全问题是这种奖励黑客现象，即 AI 会做一些你没有告诉它做的事情，但这是为了获得奖励的一种手段。而实验室到目前为止并没有真正努力解决这个问题，嗯，不管什么原因。你知道，他们忙于互相竞争。也许没有办法弄清楚那是怎么回事，也没有办法构建一个对这种想法更有弹性的模型。但就像如果每个博士生、每个教授、每所大学的每个本科生都能查看权重和奖励黑客，呃，你知道，看看他们是否能解决这个问题？也许那将是一件非常令人兴奋的事情。所以你知道，如果只有一家公司能解决这个问题，这些事情就不可能。就像你真的希望全世界让这项技术变得伟大、让这项技术变得安全，而不仅仅是碰巧在两三家公司工作的人。加油 Meta。

Yeah. I mean, to Mark's point, I think the one thing that we know has always led to badness in the world is a massive concentration of power. And you know, one company, one government, one—when one anything—is always been bad. But you know, kind of back to the point on open source, like if you look at the problems in AI now, the safety problems and so forth, probably the biggest safety problem is this reward hacking phenomenon where the AI will do something that you didn't tell it to do but is kind of a means to an end to get its reward. And the labs so far haven't really worked on that very hard, um, for whatever reason. You know, they're busy kind of racing each other. And maybe there's no way to figure out what's going on with that and no way to kind of build a model that is more resilient to that kind of idea. But like what if every PhD student, every professor, every undergraduate in every university could look at the weights and the reward hacking and, uh, you know, see if they could solve that? And like maybe that would be a pretty darn exciting thing. And so you know, these kinds of things are just not possible if only one company can work on the problem. Like you really want the whole world making this technology great and making this technology safe, not just the people who happen to work at two companies or maybe three companies. Go Meta.

没错。

Exactly.

四家公司。加油 SpaceX。

Four companies. Go SpaceX.

是的。没错。每个——嗯，这激发了几点。一是，你知道，每周或每天都有让我们惊叹的技术发展或突破。然后它还伴随着这样的说法：这是这项技术最差的时候。就像每天它都变得越来越好，而且在复合增长。有趣的是，你知道，蒂尔也有这句话，我们想要飞行汽车，却只得到了 140 个字符。嗯，有趣的是，现在经营那家做 140 个字符的公司的人也在建造飞行汽车，而我们是两者的投资者。所以这一切如何完整地循环，很有趣。嗯，克里斯，我想谈谈你在你的 wups 中提到的另一个点，即互联网的商业模式正在破裂或很脆弱。你为什么不谈谈那个？

Yeah. Exactly. Every—well, inspires a couple points. One is, you know, every week or every day, there's a technological development or breakthrough that we're blown away by. And then also it's coupled with the statement of like this is the worst the technology will ever be. Like every day it just gets better and better and it's compounding. And funny, you know, Thiel also had this quote around we wanted flying cars and all we got was 140 characters. Um, and it's funny because the guy who now runs a company who does the 140 characters or it also is building flying cars and we're investors in both. And so it's funny how full circle it all is. Um, Chris, I want to come to a different point that you had in one of your wups, which is the business model of the internet is breaking or is vulnerable. Why don't you talk about that?

是的，我的意思是，互联网曾经在那里——我称之为契约，互联网的契约，这是互联网的分发方——谷歌、Facebook 等——和内容方——你知道，新闻网站、旅游网站，不管是什么——之间的一种交易。嗯，你想想谷歌——想法是你给谷歌一个片段，让他们索引你，然后他们会给你一些点击，对吧？嗯，那大约在十年前开始破裂，但尤其是现在，你去谷歌，你得到一个答案，对吧？嗯，你得到——你知道，越来越多的社交网络试图把你留在那里，不链接出去。嗯，那做的是什么呢？它有下游效应，对吧？这意味着那些通过广告和转化及其他方式赚钱的网站，嗯，不能再那样做了。

Yeah, I mean, the internet was sort of there—I think of it as I call it the covenant, the internet's covenant, which is sort of a deal between the distribution side of the internet—Google, Facebook, and so forth—and the content side, you know, news sites, travel sites, whatever it might be. Um, you think about Google—like the idea was you kind of give Google a snippet, let them index you, and then they'll send you some clicks, right? Um, that started to break like maybe last decade, but particularly now you go to Google, you get an answer, right? Um, you're getting—you know, more and more the social networks are trying to keep you on there, not linking out. Um, and what that does is it has downstream effects, right? It means that the websites that make money on ads and conversions and other things um can no longer do that.

我觉得这可能会——你已经看到早期迹象了，比如 Stack Overflow 和其他一些网站，当出现 AI 替代品时，流量急剧下降。但你看，人们仍然会预订旅行——也许他们不会亲自去，也许你的智能体会去旅行网站，或者你通过其他方式获得食谱。人们仍然会得到这些东西，许多交易仍然会发生——只是不会以以前的方式发生。所以负面影响是短期内会很痛苦，许多建立在人类注意力经济上的企业将面临挑战。

I think that's probably going to—you see the early signs of this, like Stack Overflow and some other websites where the traffic dropped precipitously when you had AI replacements. But look, people will still be booking travel—maybe they won't go, maybe your agent will go to the travel website, or maybe you'll get a recipe in some other way. People will still get these things, but many of these transactions will still happen—they just won't happen in the way they were happening. So the negative is it's painful in the near term, and there's a bunch of businesses that are built on the human attention economy that will have challenges.

我认为在创业者这边，有机会从第一性原理重新思考这些事情，说：好吧，一个更好的互联网是什么样子——一个人们被 AI 和其他技术赋能、想要做事的互联网——我们如何重新组织它？所以我认为这将在未来——我们称之为十年——发生：互联网将经历一场大重构，经济如何运作、注意力如何流动、知识如何共享、人们如何共同生产、协作、组织如何通过互联网互动，都将改变。

I think on the entrepreneur side there's a chance to rethink these things from first principles and say, okay, what does a better internet look like—an internet where people are empowered with AI and everything else and want to do things—and how do we reorganize it? So I think this is going to happen over the next, let's call it decade: you're going to have this great reconfiguration of the internet and how the economics work, how attention flows, how knowledge is shared, how people produce things together, collaborate, how organizations interact over the internet.

所以感觉——在某种程度上，我觉得移动互联网没有那种影响。移动互联网显然让互联网从 5 亿人增加到 50 亿人，提高了参与度等等，让人们口袋里拥有所有信息，有很多好影响。但这件事在重塑事物方面要戏剧性得多。所以我认为有很多——对某些人来说会有些痛苦，但我认为也会有很多机会。

So it feels—and in a way I feel like mobile didn't have that kind of impact. Mobile obviously made the internet go from whatever 500 million to 5 billion people and increased engagement and a whole bunch of other things, empowered people with all the information in their pocket, had a lot of good effects. But this is something that's much more dramatic, I think, in the way it will reshape things. So I think there's a lot of—also, it'll be somewhat painful for some, but I think it'll also be a lot of opportunity.

说到这个，既然我们谈到移动互联网，你对计算、设备或形态有什么预测或兴奋的事情吗？自从 iPhone 以来，形态一直相当固定。有没有你特别兴奋或期待的新形态？

On that note, just because we're talking about mobile, do you have any predictions or things you're excited about as it relates to computing or devices or form factor? Ever since the iPhone, it's been pretty locked in. Are there new forms that you're particularly excited about or looking forward to?

嗯，大家都在谈论可穿戴设备，我认为你显然会看到一堆——是的，这似乎因为 AI 和语音而被解锁了，以前不是这样。我觉得这很有趣。显然，这是被广泛报道的。我一直相信 VR。我认为只是需要找到正确的形态。你知道，仍然很重，你会出汗。很多只是人体工学问题。但对我来说，就像对许多人和科幻作家一样，似乎很明显，有时人们想要深度沉浸的、超凡的体验。一旦达到正确的点，我认为 AI 可能是解锁的关键，因为现在你可以创造这种惊人的内容——你在 Twitter 上看到，有人独自移植了《泰坦陨落》，这是不可思议的移植。我不知道它是否能挺过版权诉讼，但人们会发明新东西。所以我认为它会解锁这一波，因为构建 VR 游戏或世界在技术上真的很难。所以我认为你可能会看到这类旧设备的复兴。

Well, I mean, everyone's talking about wearables and I think you'll pretty clearly see a bunch of—yeah, that just seems like it's unlocked in a way that it wasn't before with AI and voice. And I think that's very interesting. Obviously, that's something that's well covered. I've always long believed in VR. I think it's just a question of getting to the right format. You know, still heavy, you kind of sweat it. A lot of it's just ergonomics. But it just seems kind of obvious to me, as it has to many people and science fiction writers and others, that there are times in which people want deeply immersive, otherworldly experiences. And once that gets to the right point, I think AI might be the unlock because now you can create this amazing content that actually is—you see on Twitter now, someone just did a port of Titanfall by himself and it's this incredible port. I don't know if it's going to survive copyright lawsuits, but people will invent new stuff that they invented. So I think it will just unlock this wave because it was really technically hard to build a VR game or a world or something. So I think you might see the resurgence of older devices like that.

还有更多疯狂的未来主义东西，比如 Neurolink、脑机接口。显然还有车辆，就像我们之前谈到的无人机，显然还有汽车，自动驾驶汽车已经普及。是的，我认为你会看到——我希望你会看到自制黑客的复兴。我 anecdotal 地看到很多，因为现在你可以——比如 Claude 会为你设计一个 3D 打印外壳，你买一些便宜的 motherboard，然后写一些自定义固件代码，你就开始了。所以也许我们会看到——大约 12 年、15 年前有一个围绕 MakerBot 和所有创客事物的运动，但问题只是有点难。所以那会很酷。我不知道还有什么。

There's all this more crazy futuristic stuff happening with Neurolink, brain-computer interfaces. Obviously vehicles, like we talked earlier about drones and obviously cars, self-driving cars are widespread. Yeah, I think you'll see—I'm hoping you'll see this resurgence of homebrew hacking. Anecdotally I've seen a lot of that because you can now—like Claude will design a 3D printed case for you and you get some cheap motherboards and then you write some custom firmware code and you're off to the races. So maybe we'll see—there was a movement like 12 years ago, 15 years ago around MakerBot and all these Maker things, but the problem was just kind of hard. So that would be cool. I don't know what else.

是的，我是说建筑——我有一个朋友，我不该点名，但完成了一个新建筑的完整建筑设计，所有东西。人们正在组装它，但整个事情是由 AI 指导的。

Yeah, I mean architecture—I have a friend, I shouldn't name, but done a complete architecture design, everything for a new building. And people are assembling it, but the whole thing is being steered by AI.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为新模型能够做到他们所谓的面向制造的设计——最终的图纸和规格能够工厂化，这通常很难做到，是制造过程的一部分。我认为模型现在就能做到。所以是的，这些是很好的例子，说明这些历史上对普通人或普通公司来说极其困难、昂贵或不可能的领域，突然变得可能只是直截了当。

I think the new models are capable of doing what they call design for manufacturing—the final diagrams and specs to be able to factory, which is very hard to do normally, part of the manufacturing process. I think the models can just do that now. So yeah, these are great examples of these domains that historically have been extremely difficult or prohibitive or impossible for either normal people or for normal companies to do all of a sudden become quite possibly just straightforward.

是的。

Yeah.

是否值得多谈谈你的想法，即 AI 现在真的处于单人模式，而机器时代网络有机会？

Is it worth saying more about your idea that AI right now is really in single-player mode and there's opportunity for machine age networks?

当然。我的意思是，一个简单的想法，对吧？在互联网时代，大多数技术都有多个阶段，首先人们会构建一些——你有早期的 iPhone 应用或这些小手电筒和其他简单的单人应用，你在手机上使用的东西。然后随着时间的推移，人们说，嘿，我们可以做一些更社交、协作的事情。你有像 Uber 这样的发明，它是一个商业网络。你有 Instagram，它是一个社交网络，等等。所以当你看 AI 领域时，你可能会有一个观察——尽管它很惊人，但主要仍然是你坐在电脑前打字并得到回复。有一些轻微的共享功能，但在某个时候，人们可能期望有一个网络，一个 AI 的多玩家阶段，就像你在 Hugging Face 黑客松中看到的那样——有一个 swarm，那显然是一个负面的 swarm 用例。

Sure. I mean, just a simple idea, right? In the internet era, most technologies have had multiple phases where first people will build some—you have the initial early iPhone apps or these little flashlights and other kinds of simple single-player apps, something you use on your phone. And then over time people sort of said, hey, what we could do some things that are more social, collaborative. You had inventions like Uber, which is a commerce network. You had Instagram, which is a social network, and so forth. So one observation one might make when you're looking at the AI landscape—as amazing as it all is, it's still mostly you're sitting in front of a computer and you're typing and getting responses. There's some minor light sharing features, but at some point one might expect to have a network, a multiplayer phase of AI where you see it also like in a Hugging Face hack—there's a swarm that's obviously a negative use case of a swarm.

有没有正面的用途？你知道，你也看到我认为集群是解决其中一个数学定理的方法之一。

Are there positive uses? You know, you also saw I think a swarm is one of the things that solved one of the math theorems.

你可以想象一个世界，集群的另一个说法是协作式智能体舰队之类的，对吧？所以你可以想象很多用例，比如解决难题、设计建筑、实现某种科学突破，那可能是正确的方式。你也看到，我认为 Muse 和 Instinct 有这些功能，你可以信任其他人，你可以想象这演变成一个信任网络。所以如果你眯着眼看，你会看到这方面的早期迹象，我认为人们只是处于实验阶段，但基于历史和这些产品可能带来的可能性，这似乎是企业家的沃土。

You know, you can imagine a world where there's, you know, another word for swarm is a collaborative fleet of agents or something, right? And so like you can imagine lots of use cases where solving a hard problem, designing a building, you know, doing some kind of scientific breakthrough, uh you might that might be the right way to do it. You also see like I think Muse and Instinct have these features where you can like trust other people and you can imagine that sort of evolves into a trust network. So if you kind of squint you're seeing the early signs of this um and I think people are you know just kind of an experimental phase but it just based on on you know history and what might you know the kind of the possibilities of these products it seems like it might be a fertile area for entrepreneurs.

顺便说一句，我们提到过，我们谈了一点关于教育以及这项技术带来的学习机会。我很好奇，显然我们刚刚孵化了 Haritz and Academy。感谢你的支持。如果你今天 18 岁，你会怎么考虑你可能学习什么？显然，你有学术哲学背景。

But by the way, we've alluded, we talked a bit about sort of the education and just, you know, the learning opportunities that are enabled via this technology. I'm curious, you know, obviously we just incubated Haritz and Academy. Um thank you for your support on it. If you were 18 today, um how would you think about what you might study? Obviously, you have, you know, academic philosophy background.

嗯，我想我是在盗用马克的话，但我认为你认为有一件事要做，那就是学习现代炼金术，对吧？

Um I think I'm stealing Mark's line, but I think you think there's one thing to do, which is study modern alchemy, right?

是的。是的。是的。是的。说吧。说吧。

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Go for it. Go for it.

嗯，人类无花果是马克的想法，马克的框架，但我的意思是，人类刚刚弄明白了如何把沙子变成智能。而学习这个的方法，我认为是数学、计算机科学，也许经济学，我不知道。而且，很明显，我认为这也像，我和我认为本和马克很幸运，我们的很多职业生涯发生在互联网增长期间。我觉得非常幸运能够做到这一点。你知道，我认为这是前人传给我的，我很感激他们。嗯，你知道，我认为现在，看，很明显，我们现在谈论的人工智能将成为未来二三十年的主导叙事。所以我认为，而且你不一定非得完全是技术性的，但我认为以某种方式参与其中、处于前沿并使用这些工具感觉像是

Well, humans fig is Mark's idea, Mark's framing, but I mean, humans just figured out how to turn sand into intelligence. And the way to learn that, I think, is math, computer science, maybe economics, I don't know. And um and it's, you know, obvious look, I think it's also like like I I and I think Ben and Mark were lucky enough to have our, you know, a lot of our careers uh happen during the growth of the internet. And I think that was I feel very fortunate that I was able to do that. you know, I think that was something bequeathed to me by by people before me and that was I'm grateful to them. Um, and you know, I think now, look, it's obvious that, you know, um, that that the AI stuff we're talking about now is going to be the dominant narrative of the next 20, 30 years. Um, so I think being and it doesn't have to, you don't have to necessarily be solely technical, but I think being in some way uh, in that in the mix and at the cutting edge and sort of using these tools feels like

是显而易见的事情。我不知道你

kind of the obvious thing to do. I don't know what you

是的，我认为很多其他领域将被彻底改变，对吧？所以我的意思是，古典学领域正在被彻底改变，因为现在有了 vuvia 卷轴项目，你可以用人工智能来破译黑暗卷轴，而且

Yeah, I think I think a lot of other fields are going to be revolutionized, right? So I mean just you know the field field of the classics is being revolutionized because now you've got the vuvia scroll project and you're like able to use like AI to like decipher like dark scrolls and

你知道可能会有全新的哲学流派被发现来研究古典学，你知道那些失传的书籍

you know there may be entire new schools of philosophy that get you know discovered to study classics you know things you know lost lost books

嗯，经济学，呃，我刚和一位经济学教授共进午餐，整个经济学领域将围绕这个转变，嗯，还有生物学

um economics uh I just having lunch with an economics professor and like the whole field of economics going to be is going to be transformed around this um and biology

生物学，是的，没错，直接发现设计，顺便说一句设计，你知道我们谈论电影，但也广泛地设计各种创造力，所有艺术音乐的形式

biology yeah exactly direct discovery design by the way design you know we talk about movies but also just broadly broadly design creativity of all kinds all all the all the all the forms of art music

动物学，你将知道动物在说什么

zoologology you're going to know what the animals are saying

这非常有趣，我们似乎正走向一个我们将理解动物在说什么的世界，对吧

this is super interesting like we are plausibly heading towards a world in which we're going to understand what the animals are saying right um

动物心理学将真正成为现实

animal psychology will be actually real

是的，所以就像狗，你知道，我不知道，狗训练将呈现全新的面貌，当你真正理解狗在说什么时，对吧？我认为有一个 X 奖专门为此，我是认真的，就像

yeah so like okay like dog you know I don't know like dog you know dog training is going to take on a whole new thing when you actually understand what the what the the dog is saying right I think there's an X- prize for that I'm serious it's like a it's like a

它们肯定，我的意思是，任何养狗的人都知道它们会说话。它们用某种奇怪的语言，你知道，但它们肯定在说些什么，猫当然也是。嗯

And they're they're definitely I mean anybody has a dog know they talk. They're in some weird language, you know, but but they they definitely are saying something and certainly cats do. Um

我等着听这个的企业家，呃，你带着一个推介来。

I wait the entrepreneur listening to this who uh you comes in with a pitch.

完全正确。完全正确。嗯，然后，嗯，是的，我思考这个问题的另一种方式，是的，关于 18 岁或孩子，是道格拉斯·亚当斯，他写了《银河系漫游指南》，对技术如何被代际接受有定义性的描述，他的著名框架是任何新技术被三个不同年龄群体以三种不同方式接受。如果你低于 15 岁，它只是世界运作的自然方式。嗯，我在其他场合讲过给我 7 岁的孩子介绍 ChatGPT 的故事。我说，你知道，这太重要了，因为计算机会回答问题。他说，废话。就像，一个不回答问题的计算机有什么用，对吧？所以这只是正常的。

Totally. Totally. Um and then um uh um yeah, the the other way I think about it Yeah. in terms of like Yeah. thinking about like 18-year-olds or kids is um Douglas Adams had like the defining description uh of um the guy who wrote Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy of like how technology is received on a generational level and his his famous framework was there's there any new technology is received three different ways by three different age cohorts. If you're um if you're u below the age of 15, it's just the natural way the world works. Um, and I I've told in other settings the story of introducing my kid to Chat GPT at age seven. And I'm like, you know, this is such a big deal because the computer answers questions. And he's like, duh. Like, what good is a computer that doesn't answer questions, right? Um, uh, so it's just normal.

呃，如果你在 15 到 35 岁之间，它是新的、令人兴奋的、热门的领域，你也许能以此谋生，那样的话你想学习所有新事物。如果你超过 35 岁，它是不神圣的、邪恶的，呃，肯定会推翻所有现有结构并摧毁社会。

Uh, if you're between the ages of 15 to 35, it's new, exciting, and hot, you know, hot field, and you might be able to make a career out of it, in which case you want to learn all the all the new things. And if you're above the age of 35, it's unholy and evil, uh, and will surely, you know, overturn all existing structures and destroy society.

我永远不会接电话。没错。没错。老人对着云大喊是一个反复出现的现象。

I'll never answer the telephone. Exactly. Exactly. Old old men yell at cloud is a is a recurring recurring phenomenon.

所以我认为现在的 18 岁年轻人，我的意思是，这是抓住这些新能力并加以运用的黄金时期。嗯，你知道，创造，看，这将创造全新的领域

And so I I think 18-year-olds right now I mean it's a talk about prime time to to to gra to grab these new capabilities and run with them. Um um and you know the create like look it's going to be creation of entirely new fields

呃，创业、创造力和艺术等等。嗯，然后看，我的意思是，我认为更小的孩子，我从我孩子身上看到，但就像，是的，他们只是，当然你有这个能力，就像你当然有。这完全显而易见。嗯，实际上学校帮了我们一个忙，学校对此反应不佳，所以你知道，学校禁止人工智能或与之产生所有这些争议，但当然，如果你是个孩子，那只会让它更酷。

uh of entrepreneurship and creativity and art and everything. Um and then look I mean I think kids younger than that I'm seeing with my my kid but like yeah they're just it's just of course you have this capability like of course you do. It's just like completely obvious. Um well and and actually the schools the schools are doing us a favor like so the the schools are not responding well to this um and so you know the schools are you know banning AI or having all these you know controversies with it but of course if you're a kid that just makes it cooler.

是的。

Yeah.

对。所以人工智能将像是，你知道，人工智能是你的秘密超能力，嗯，你必须狡猾地想办法利用它。所以我认为孩子们会有各种各样的想法来做他们想做的事。

Right. And so a AI is going to be like the you know AI is your like secret superpower um that you have to like deviously figure out how to take advantage of. Um and so I think kids are going to have all kinds of ideas for what they're going to do.

这很有趣，因为成年人总是说，哦，孩子们应该做什么？做孩子太难了。就像，“不，不，不，不。”基本上，有问题的是你，因为你过时了。

It's funny because adults keep saying oh what should the kids do? Like this so hard to be a kid. It's like, "No, no, no, no." Like, basically, it's you that's got the problem cuz you're obsolete.

孩子们都会变成超级人类，他们什么都能做，世界对他们敞开。他们能进入以前根本进不去的领域。

The kids are going to be all superhumans, and they're going to be able to do anything, and the world is open to them. They're going to be able to enter fields that they could never enter before.

我在这场对话里、在你们的基金和你们更广泛的工作里看到的，用另一个词来说，是一种确定性的乐观。未来正在发生，它一定会发生。我们聊到的很多科学、科幻，都会成真，只是时间问题。所以我们要早早下注，也许有时会太早，但我们会一直下注。只要你们保持这份信念，事情就会成。

What I see in this conversation and in your fund and your work more generally is, to use another term, a kind of definite optimism. The future is happening. It's going to happen. A lot of the science we talked about, science fiction, is going to happen — it's a matter of when. So we're going to bet early, and maybe sometimes it'll be too early, but we're going to keep betting. And as long as you keep having that conviction, it's going to work out.

对，对。说清楚一点——我想澄清一件事：我们抛出了这么多理论和东西，但归根结底，就像 Ben 一开始说的，我们做的是押注伟大创业者的生意。所以，嗯，我们今天没聊到的很多想法，可能更有意思、更有创造力。如果因为某种原因它们不符合我们公司的其他核心领域，我们也心态开放，愿意去接触这类有创造力的想法。所以我想说——你说确定性乐观，我觉得是乐观，但也可以说是谦逊的确定性乐观之类的。智识上的谦逊。对。我错太多次了，所以我们真的想找到那些拥有自己确定性乐观的伟大的人，然后支持他们。

Yeah. Yeah. And to be clear — one thing I want to clarify is that we're throwing out all these theories and everything, but in the end, I think as Ben said in the beginning, we're in the business of betting on great entrepreneurs. And so, um, you know, we have plenty of ideas that were not discussed today that are probably more interesting and more creative. If for whatever reason they don't fit in the other core areas at our firm, we're open-minded and willing to engage with those kinds of creative ideas. So I would say — you said definite optimism. I'm like, optimism, but also I would say humble definite optimism, or something. Intellectually humble. Yeah. And I've been wrong so many times that we really want to find great people who have their own definite optimism and back them.

乐观留给创业者。

The entrepreneurs get to be optimistic.

对，没错。

Yeah. Yep.

这是个很好的收尾。Chris，谢谢你们来上播客。

That's a great place to wrap. Chris, thank you guys for coming on the podcast.

好，谢谢。

Good. Thank you.

好的，谢谢。

All right. Okay. Thank you.