Sam Altman on AI, Parenthood, and the Future
打开互动全文版(中英对照 + 朗读 + 问答)→Sam Altman 探讨 AI 的利弊、初为人父的体验以及科技的未来。
Sam Altman discusses the pros and cons of AI, his new role as a father, and the future of technology.
今天的嘉宾是名副其实的科技巨头,毫不夸张。他是全球人工智能开发的领军人物之一,创立了以 ChatGPT 闻名的 OpenAI。我们聊了很多,关于利弊、恐惧与希望,以及我能学到的关于人工智能和未来走向的一切。未来待定,宝贝。今天的嘉宾是 Sam Altman 先生,非常感谢他抽出时间。
Today's guest is a straight-up tech lord, let's be honest. He's one of the world leaders in the development of AI. He started OpenAI, which is known for having ChatGPT. We had a fascinating chat about the pros and cons, the fears and hopes, everything I could learn about artificial intelligence and where we're headed. TBD, baby. Today's guest is Mr. Sam Altman, and I'm very thankful for his time.
我会找一首歌,然后唱出来。
And I will find a song. I will sing it.
你知道吗,我们请了住宅建筑师来设计这个办公室。我们希望它感觉像某人非常舒适的乡间别墅之类的。
You know, we had a residential architect do this office. We wanted it to feel like someone's really comfortable country house or something like that.
对,不像那种大型企业科幻城堡。
Yeah. Not like the big corporate sci-fi castle.
是啊,我当时就在想,哦,会不会有吊桥?我们会不会被上传到套装里?我们会遭遇什么?
Yeah, that's what I was thinking. I was a little like, oh, is it going to be, you know, will there be a drawbridge? Will we be uploaded into a suit? Like what will happen to us?
你不会想要那样的。我们走的是住宅风格。
You don't want that. We're going for residential.
是啊。我当时想,我们怎么穿过防火墙?需要多少生命值才能通过?你知道,我的想象力有时候会变得很像《龙与地下城》。
Yeah. I was like, how do we even get through the firewall? How many hit points will we need to get through? You know, it got very Dungeons and Dragons in some of my imagination sometimes.
对,我们希望人们感到非常舒适,并且在这方面做得相当到位。
Yeah, we want people to feel super comfortable and tried to get pretty far in that direction.
确实感觉如此。你的员工也非常友善、亲切。谢谢你陪我聊天,伙计。
It feels like it. And your staff's very sweet, nice people. Thanks for hanging out, man.
不客气。谢谢,我很感激。是啊,自从我从椅子上摔下来之后就没见过你了。
Absolutely. Thanks, I appreciate it. Yeah, I haven't seen you since I fell out of my chair.
在就职典礼上从椅子上摔下来。
Fell out of a chair at the inauguration.
那真是一种特别的见面方式。
That was really quite a way to meet you.
是啊,我觉得特别尴尬。我抬头看到你的脸,心想,‘天哪。’那是我第一次想,‘AI,给我们造把更好的椅子吧。’说实话。
Yeah, I felt so embarrassed. And you were one of the faces that I looked up and saw and I was like, 'God.' And that was my first moment like, 'AI, build us a better chair,' to be honest with you.
你什么都没做,对吧?你就坐在那儿,椅子就塌了。什么都没做。
You did nothing, right? You were just sitting there and it just collapsed. Nothing.
我记得。
I remember that.
而且真是太尴尬了。我当时想,‘哦,偏偏是我,在这个地方。’
And it was just so embarrassing. I was like, 'Oh, of all people me and here I am in this place.'
我觉得这很完美,因为当别人问‘就职典礼怎么样?’时,每个人都需要有个故事可讲。
I think it was perfect because everybody's got to have some story when people ask, 'Oh, was the inauguration like?' Everybody's got to have some story to tell.
是啊。
Yeah.
而这对我们所有人来说都是一个不可思议的故事。
And that was an incredible story for us all to tell.
说得好。不过我确实记得当时在向人们求助。奇怪的是,你的眼神让我觉得,‘哦天哪,他能帮忙。’你看起来就像远处的一座希望灯塔。
That's a good point. I do remember looking at people for help, though. And oddly, your eyes I was like, 'Oh my god, he could help.' You did look like a beacon of help in the distance.
我确实想帮忙来着。
I tried to help.
你有了一个宝宝。你有了一个孩子。
You have a baby. You have a new child.
是的。生活中有很多经历,每个人都告诉你某件事会很棒,然后你发现,好吧,人们是对的,共识是对的,它比我想象的还要好。但这绝对是迄今为止最强烈的例子。
It is. There have been a lot of experiences in life where everyone tells you something's going to be great and then it's like, okay, the people are right, the consensus is right, it's even better than I thought it was going to be. But this has been the strongest example of that ever.
就像我知道它会很棒,但它要好得多得多。无法形容。我说不出任何不陈词滥调的话,但它绝对令人惊叹。
Like I knew it was going to be great and it's way way better. It's impossible to describe. There's nothing I can say that's not very cliche and it's totally amazing.
其中让你感到快乐的一件事是什么?你有一个小男孩。你觉得什么很酷?
What is one of the things that brings you joy with it? You have a young boy. What's something that you think is neat?
看着他学习新事物或获得新能力的速度。简直难以置信。每天都会想,哦天哪,他之前还做不到,现在却能抓东西并在双手间传递。日复一日地观察这种变化,速度惊人。然后我意识到,婴儿的一切都是经过漫长进化精心调校的,让我们爱他们、被他们吸引。这就像一种神经化学 hack。但我喜欢这种感觉。太棒了。如此强烈,如此深刻。
Watching the speed with which he learns new things or gains new capabilities. It's just unbelievable. Every day it's like, oh man, he just couldn't do that before and now he's grabbing stuff and passing it between his hands. Getting to watch it day to day is just an amazing rate of change. And then I realize that everything about babies is very finely tuned over a long period of evolution to make us love them and be fascinated by them. It's like a neurochemical hack. But I love it. It's great. It's so strong. It's so intense.
所以这真的有点像给心脏来杯咖啡之类的。我甚至不知道怎么找比喻。我试过想一个来说,因为现在我告诉每个人,你必须多生孩子。这真的很重要。
So it's really like almost like a coffee for your heart or something. I don't even know how to find an analogy. I've tried to come up with one to tell because now I'm telling everybody you've got to have a lot of kids. It's really important.
是啊。是啊。是啊。
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
我一直在找一个比喻来解释,但最后总是说我不知道怎么解释。这绝对是我做过的最棒的事。我感觉自己完全变了一个人。前几天我在想,以前还有那么多别的事情。现在,我所有的时间就是工作和陪家人。我不再有很多爱好。工作很忙。我也不怎么和朋友聚会了。人们总说,‘哦,你得在孩子出生前做这个,来一次说走就走的国际旅行,因为之后很长一段时间你都做不了了。’我当时想,‘哦,那有点可惜。’但实际上,你本来也不常做。至少我不常做,而且我一点也不怀念。我记得那曾经是一种可能。现在我知道很长一段时间内都不可能了,但我对这个交换感到非常兴奋。
And I've been looking for an analogy to explain, and then I always just say I don't know how to explain this. It's just the best thing I've ever done by far. I feel like a completely changed person. I was thinking the other day, there used to be all these other things. At this point, all I do is work and hang out with my family. I don't really get to do a lot of hobbies anymore. It's busy time at work. I don't get to hang out with my friends that much. And there were all these things where people tell you, 'Oh, you got to do this before the baby comes, take that spontaneous international trip because you're not going to be doing that again for a long time.' And I was like, 'Oh, that is kind of sad.' In practice, you don't do it that often. I at least didn't do it that often, and I don't miss it at all. I remember that used to be a possibility. Now I can see that's not going to be a possibility for a long time, and I'm thrilled with the trade.
你已经向前看了。
You've moved on.
我太开心了。
I'm so happy.
你的孩子多大了?
How old is your child?
四个月。哦,那是个有趣的年龄。到五六个月的时候他们开始变得好玩,虽然还是不能到处跑,但他们会好奇之类的。他们开始微笑或处理更多信息。我不知道你们怎么说,但总之他完全“开启”了,非常警觉,能理解东西。超级酷。
Four months. Oh, that's a funny age. At five or six months they start to get fun, and you can like, they're still like they can't go anywhere, you know, but they're intrigued and stuff. They start to smile or process more. I don't know how you guys say it, but yeah, he's totally turned on though, really aware, understands things. It's super cool.
我有时会想,这可能是最后几十年,我们还在体内孕育孩子。你有什么想法吗?我确实听过很多人这么说。我自己没有深入思考过,但嗯,我想这确实有道理。我想确实有道理。
I have a thought sometimes that this will be one of the last, maybe 40 years, that we conceive children in the body. Did you have any thoughts about that? I've definitely heard a lot of people say that. I haven't thought about it hard myself, but yeah, I guess it does make sense. Like I guess that does make sense.
就像,天哪,你在你妈妈的屁股里。太疯狂了。你知道,你是个变态之类的。我觉得未来人们会在类似兽医诊所的地方做这件事。
Like, God, you were in your mom's butt. It's crazy. You know, you pervert or whatever. I think in the future people will do it in a vet or something.
对。在一个不错的兽医诊所。你可以周末去看看它之类的。
Yes. In like a nice vet. You can go see it on the weekends or whatever.
你不觉得这有点不对劲吗?我完全能在理智上理解那可能是更好的方式。
Doesn't that just feel off to you? Like I can totally intellectually understand that may be the better way to do it.
哦是啊。我觉得很不对劲。
Oh yeah. It feels way off to me.
我觉得你会喜欢这个,你知道吗?我觉得那会是一个未来主义的想法。我完全可以接受那将成为每个人的做法,而且它更简单,我们可以让孩子和母亲都更健康。母亲不用承担健康风险。但情感上感觉有点不对劲。
I thought you would like it, you know? I thought that would be like a futuristic thought. I can totally accept that that will be what everybody does and that it's easier and we can make it healthier for the child and the mother. The mother doesn't take the health risk. But emotionally it feels like something is off.
哦,是的。是的。因为那样的话,周末父母会过来在玻璃上捣鼓什么的,或者爸爸会在上面贴个猎鹰队贴纸。人们会把它装饰起来,或者在上面写点小留言。
Oh yeah. Yeah. Because then the family, on the weekends the parents would come and tinker on the glass or whatever, or the dad would put a Go-Falcons sticker on the thing. People would decorate it all up or write little messages on there.
我对这一切还有另一种看法:在我们走向的这个疯狂科幻技术成为现实的世界里,那些深刻人性的东西将变得最珍贵、最神圣、最有价值。我们会比以往任何时候都更关心人类体验。也许不会这样,我不知道。
I think there's another take on all of this: in this world we're heading to, with crazy sci-fi technology becoming reality, the deeply human things will become the most precious, sacred, valued things. And we'll really care about the human experience more than ever. Maybe it won't go that way, I don't know.
是的。
Yeah.
你觉得你的孩子会上大学吗?你认为那会是什么样子?
Do you think your child will go to college? What do you think that looks like?
可能不会。如果非要猜的话,我只上了一半的大学。
Probably not. If I had to guess, I only went to half of college.
你辍学了?你们全都辍学了。我辍学了。王也辍学了。扎克伯格也辍学了。可能还有很多其他人。
You dropped out? You guys all dropped out. I dropped out. Wang dropped out. Zuckerberg dropped out. Probably a lot of other people.
是的。
Yeah.
嗯,我们都在这里,所以结果还不错。你说得对。我太妄自菲薄了。当你想到这个的时候,那会是什么样子?有了 AI,这么多新信息上线,数据被收集,信息被拼车?
Well, we're both here, so it worked out fine. You're right. I'm being self-defeating. What does that look like when you think about that? With AI, with so much new information coming online, data being collected and information being carpooled?
你和我从来没有在一个没有电脑的世界里长大。我们的父母会说,‘哦,以前没有电脑。’然后电脑出现了,那是一个巨大的疯狂调整。对我们来说,电脑一直存在。然后有一个孩子……我在 YouTube 上看到一个视频,大概是 12 或 14 年前,一直让我印象深刻。那是一个小宝宝在牙医候诊室里拿起一本旧的光面杂志,然后这样操作。
You and I never grew up in a world that didn't have computers. Our parents were like, 'Oh, there weren't computers.' And then there were, and it was a big crazy adjustment. To us, computers just always existed. And then a kid that is like... there was a video on YouTube I saw maybe 12 or 14 years ago that has really stuck with me. It was a little baby in a dentist waiting room picking up one of those old glossy magazines and going like this.
哦,我记得那个。对那个孩子来说,那只是一个坏掉的 iPad,因为那个孩子在一个到处是触摸屏的世界里长大。我的孩子永远不会比 AI 更聪明。那永远不会发生。几年前出生的孩子还有短暂的一段时间。我的孩子永远不会更聪明。
Oh, I remember that. To that kid, it was just a broken iPad because that kid had grown up in a world with touchscreens everywhere. My kid will never be smarter than an AI. That will never happen. A kid born a few years ago had a brief period of time. My kid never will be smarter.
而且,他们永远不会知道一个产品和服务不比他们聪明得多、能力超强的世界。它们可以做到你需要的任何事情。在那个世界里,我认为教育会感觉非常不同。我已经觉得大学对大多数人来说可能效果不太好。快进 18 年,它会变得非常非常不同。
But also, they'll never know a world where products and services aren't way smarter than them and super capable. They can just do whatever you need. In that world, I think education's going to feel very different. I already think college is maybe not working great for most people. Fast forward 18 years, it's going to look like a very, very different thing.
是的。就是这个视频。这个孩子。是的。我关于牙医的说法错了。或者可能有好几个这样的视频。他好像在说,‘有人给这本杂志充电了。’他在大喊。
Yeah. Here's that video right here. This kid. Yeah. I was wrong about the dentist. Or maybe there are a few of these. He's like, 'Somebody charged this magazine.' He's yelling.
你现在会如何建议家长为孩子的 AI 未来做准备?有没有某些课程你现在就会开始安排?某些调整、训练,或者在线的一些模式?
How would you recommend to a parent right now to prepare their children for an AI future? Are there certain curricula you would start to put in now? Certain adjustments, training, or models of things online?
我其实觉得孩子们会没事的。我担心的是父母。纵观世界历史,当新技术出现时,伴随它长大的人总是能熟练运用。他们总能弄清楚该怎么做。他们总能学会新的工作。但如果你是一个 50 岁的人,必须学习以非常不同的方式做事,那就不一定行得通了。
I actually think the kids will be fine. I'm worried about the parents. If you look at the history of the world, when there's new technology, people that grow up with it are always fluent. They always figure out what to do. They always learn the new kind of jobs. But if you're a 50-year-old and you have to learn to do things in a very different way, that doesn't always work.
啊。
Ah.
所以,我认为孩子们会没事的。我确实对科技对孩子们的影响有担忧。我觉得这种滑动、短视频流带来的多巴胺冲击,感觉可能正在非常深刻地干扰孩子的大脑发育。所以,并不是说我没有担忧。我对科技对孩子们的影响有极其深刻的担忧。但就孩子们为未来做准备和使用新技术的能力而言,他们似乎非常擅长。
So, I think the kids are going to be fine. I do have worries about kids in technology. I think this scrolling, the short video feed dopamine hit, it feels like it's probably messing with kids' brain development in a super deep way. So, it's not that I have no worries. I have extremely deep worries about what technology is doing to kids. But in terms of kids' ability to be prepared for the future and use a new technology, they seem really good at that.
是的。这是个好观点。就好像如果你从小就和它一起长大,它就完全正常。就像有膝盖骨什么的。你只是习惯了。你无法想象没有它的世界。
Yeah. That's a good point. It's like if you just grow up with it, it's just totally normal. It's like having kneecaps or whatever. You're just kind of used to it. You can't imagine the world where it doesn't exist.
是的。
Yeah.
我记得我上初中的时候,谷歌刚出来。所有老师都抓狂了,说‘这是教育的终结’。如果你能立刻在网上查到历史事实,为什么还要背呢?你甚至不用学着去图书馆。答案是,也许记忆没那么重要了,但有了这些新工具,你可以更好地思考,提出新想法,做新事情。我确定之前计算器出现时也是同样的情况。
I remember when I was in junior high and Google first came out. All the teachers freaked out and said, 'This is the end of education.' Why do you have to memorize history facts if you can just look them up instantly on the internet? You don't even have to learn to go to the library. And the answer is, maybe memorization is less important, but with these new tools, you can think better, come up with new ideas, do new stuff. I'm sure the same thing happened with the calculator before.
是的。
Yeah.
那如果现在有人正在学历史,刚上大二呢?哦,那个 Celsius。那东西肯定会……你一个月都别想眨眼。你打个喷嚏就会发布 5.0。你们已经到 4.5 了吗?
What about somebody that's learning history right now, just started their second year of college? Oh, that Celsius. That thing will definitely... you won't be able to blink for a month. You'll sneeze and release 5.0. Are you guys at 4.5 already?
我们已经到 4.5 了。5.0 是……我觉得会很棒。
We're at 4.5 already. 5.0 is... I think it's going to be great.
哦,如果你把我说的 Celsius 加进去,它会很快出来。
Oh, it'll come out fast if you add that Celsius to what I'm saying.
也许研究人员需要它,而不是我。但你知道,我们会给他们一些。是的,那东西会带你到那里。那么假设有个人,比如现在正在学历史。他们大学二年级,在修历史。那——比如他们要成为历史学家——随着 AI 的发展,这还是一个可行的职业领域吗?老实说,
Maybe the researchers need it, not me. But, you know, we'll get them some. Yeah, that thing will get you there, man. So say there's somebody, for example, who's learning history right now. They're in their second year of college, taking history. Is that—like, they're going to be a historian—still a viable space of work as AI moves forward, do you think? Honestly,
我假设会有某种形式的它。我认为很难准确预测某件事会如何演变。或者准确预测未来的工作。不久以前,预测我们俩的工作都会非常困难。如果回到一百年前,AI 公司的 CEO 或播客主持人——这些可能看起来不像当时人们所做事情的最明显演变。
I assume there will be some version of it. I think it's very hard to predict exactly how something evolves. Or predict exactly the jobs of the future. Not that long ago, it would have been very hard to predict either of our jobs. If you go back a hundred years, the idea of a CEO of an AI company or a podcaster—probably would have been things that didn't seem like the most obvious evolutions of what people were doing at the time.
是的。嘿,你甚至会觉得向别人解释这些几乎像疯了一样。
Yeah. Hey, you'd seem almost crazy even trying to explain those to someone.
是的。而事实上,现在年轻人最想要的两个工作就是你们这种工作的某种形式。年轻人最想要的工作是成为播客网红、YouTube——他们想要一个 YouTube 频道,不管是什么。六七岁的孩子,他们不知道如何描述,但那就是他们想要的。很多人也想要我的工作——他们想做创业或从事 AI。而这些工作以前根本不存在。
You would. And now, in fact, two of the jobs that young people most want are some version of your job. The job that young people most want is to be a podcast influencer, YouTube—they want a YouTube channel, whatever it is. Six, seven-year-olds, they don't know how to describe it, but that's what they want. And a lot of people also want my job—they want to do a startup or work on AI. And these just didn't exist.
是的。所以新事物出现的速度很快,而且试图预测它们是什么——我不知道。我一直在说,没人知道接下来会发生什么。就像我们要一起弄清楚。这是一种奇怪的涌现现象。历史学家现在的工作还会以同样的方式存在吗?我猜不会完全一样。但我相信的另一件事是,人类对他人的痴迷。我们天生就深深关心他人,关心故事和历史。我们自己的历史对我们来说极其有趣。所以我会说,无论如何,我们仍然会关心那个。会有某种工作做这件事。
Yeah. So the rate at which new things come along is fast, and also trying to predict what they are—I don't know. The thing I say all the time is no one knows what happens next. It's like we're going to figure this out. It's this weird emergent thing. Does the current job of a historian exist in the same way? I would bet not quite. But another thing I believe is that humans are obsessed with other people. We are so deeply wired to care about other people, to care about stories and history. Our own history is extremely interesting to us. So I would say somehow or other, we're still going to care about that. There's going to be some kind of job doing that.
伙计,那很酷。我想如果我沿着这个思路想——好吧,仍然会有历史学家或什么人,会是那个的某种演变。没错。这对我来说确实有点酷,因为其中有创意、信念和自发性,我觉得挺令人兴奋的。所以是的,我想我还没真正考虑过这一点。有时我会陷入这种末日思维,就像我看到历史书合上,他们说,‘我们够了,我们这里有了所有历史。’
Man, that's cool. I guess if I take that avenue of thought—okay, there will still be this historian or somebody, it'll be some evolution of that. Right. That does seem kind of cool to me because there's a level of creativity in there, a level of faith and spontaneity that I think is kind of exciting. So yeah, I guess I hadn't really thought about that. Sometimes I get stuck in this doomsday thing like I just see the history book closes and they're like, 'We have enough, we have all the history over here.'
你知道,人们过去常说,‘哦,不需要更多音乐了,我们已经做出了完美的音乐,为什么还需要任何人再创作?’这显然很荒谬。或者他们会引用那个著名的专利局名言:‘人类可能需要的所有东西都已被发明,没什么可做的了。’
You know, people used to say, 'Oh, there's no need for more music, we've made perfect music, why does anyone need to create anymore?' And that's obviously ridiculous. Or they'd say that famous patent office quote: 'Everything that humans ever possibly need has been invented, there's nothing left to do.'
我听说过,但我们现在还在这里。
I have heard that, but here we are.
我们现在还在这里。而且前几天有人问我,‘多久你能为 OpenAI 制造一个 AI CEO?’我说,‘可能不会太久。’他们问,‘那你难道不感到难过吗?’我说,‘不,我觉得这太棒了。我肯定会找到别的事情做。我很兴奋去做。’我认为那很棒。
Here we are. And someone asked me the other day, 'How long until you can make an AI CEO for OpenAI?' And I was like, 'Probably not that long.' And they were like, 'Well, aren't you really sad about that?' And I was like, 'No, I think it's awesome. I'm for sure going to figure out something else to do. I'm excited to do that.' I think that's great.
对。所以你可以创造出取代你工作的东西,然后你去做别的事。
Right. So you could create something that would have your job, but then you could do something else.
完全正确。
Totally.
但你怎么知道你还能从工作中获得报酬?我想这是个很大的问题。
But then how do you know that you'll still get paid for your job? I guess that's kind of a big question.
嗯,我认为诚实地面对这一点很重要:会有一些工作完全消失。但大多数情况下,我认为我们可以依赖这样一个事实:人们对更多东西、更好体验、更高社会地位的渴望——这似乎是基本无限的。人类创造力似乎基本无限,而人类希望彼此有用、彼此联系、为彼此做事的欲望也似乎相当无限。所以纵观历史,一直有这样的预测:‘我们都会在海滩上,每天或每周工作一小时,拥有无限的财富。’我从未听说过。我会喜欢那样。
Well, I think it's important to be honest about that: there will be some jobs that totally go away. But mostly, I think we will rely on the fact that people's desire for more stuff, for better experiences, for a higher social status—that seems basically limitless. Human creativity seems basically limitless, and human desire to be useful to each other, to connect, and to do stuff for each other seems pretty limitless too. So throughout history, there have been predictions like, 'We're going to all be on the beach and work an hour a day or a week, and have unlimited wealth.' I've never heard that. I would love that.
我的意思是,他们过去常这么说。在工业革命期间,人们说,‘哦,我们刚刚找到了自动化人类命运的方法。没什么可做的了。我们要让这些机器做所有工作。’然后你看到这些机器在做以前只有人才能做的事。每个人都恐慌了,说再也不会有工作了。然后我们找到了新的想要的东西。现在,有趣的是。如果你能回到工业革命时期——之前的人们真的在辛苦劳作,拼命工作以求有足够的食物生存。回到那些人面前。看看我们今天的工作。那些人会说我们有真正的工作,还是说你们拥有难以置信的富足、难以置信的财富、这么多食物、难以置信的奢侈,而你们只是在玩游戏自娱自乐?那是真正的工作吗?他们可能会说,从他们的角度看,你们做的不是真正的工作。你们太富有了,你们在浪费时间。你们在试图……
I mean, they used to say this. During the Industrial Revolution, people were like, 'Oh, we just figured out how to automate man's lot in life. There's nothing left to do. We're going to have these machines do all the work.' And you watch these machines doing all this stuff that only people used to physically do. And everybody panicked and said there's going to be no more jobs. And we figured out new stuff to want. Now, here's an interesting thing. If you could go back to that Industrial Revolution time—people before that were really on the grind, working super hard trying to have enough food to survive. Go back to those people. Look at our jobs today. Would those people say we have real jobs, or would they say you have unbelievable abundance, unbelievable wealth, so much food to eat, incredible luxury, and you guys are just playing a game to entertain yourselves? Is that a real job or not? And they would probably say, where they sit, what you guys do is not a real job. You guys are too rich, you're wasting your time. You're trying to...
是的。你们就是几个该死的热情领主,在公园里玩 Uno 之类的。他们不会——我不认为我祖父会说,‘你有工作。’他仍然会说,‘你需要找份工作。’
Yeah. You guys are a couple of dang zest lords out there freaking playing Uno in the park or whatever. They would not—I don't think my grandfather would be like, 'You have a job.' He would still be like, 'You need to get a job.'
是的。完全正确。当我们再向前看一百年,看人们在做什么,他们可能会认为自己工作很努力。对他们来说,那会非常满足、非常紧张。他们会感到投入。他们会让他人快乐。他们会为彼此创造价值。但如果我们能向前看一百年看那些人,你认为我们会说他们在工作,还是说,‘伙计,你有 AI 为你做一切。你只是在试图娱乐自己。’
Yeah. Totally. And when we look forward another hundred years at what people are doing, they'll probably think they're working very hard. It'll feel very satisfying, very intense to them. They'll feel engaged. They'll be making other people happy. They'll be creating value for each other. But if we could look forward that hundred years at those guys, do you think we would say they're working, or like, 'Man, you have AI doing everything for you. You're just trying to entertain yourselves.'
是的。比如,‘哦,你们太轻松了,对吧?’但我认为那很美。
Yeah. Like, 'Oh, you guys have it so easy, right?' But I think that's beautiful.
我觉得过去的人认为我们过得轻松,这很棒。我也觉得我们觉得未来的人过得轻松,这也很棒。这就是我们所有人共同推动人类进步、每个人的生活越来越好的美好故事。假设我们能达到那个境界,对吧?随着 AI 和技术的进步,我认为技术会发展得更快——对我来说,AI 就像是技术和可能性的快进键,因为信息可以很快被量化,很多更琐碎的任务(尽管在人们生活中并不真的琐碎,但假设如此)可以更快完成,从而快速搭建许多事情的框架。但人们如何生存?我们如何调整金融结构?如果一些人拥有 AI 公司,而很多人只是使用 AI 和 AI 创建的智能体来做事,社会成员如何还能在经济上生存?还会有钱吗?那是什么?这说得通吗?
I think it's great that those people in the past think we have it so easy. I think it's great that we think those people in the future have it so easy. Like that is the beautiful story of us all contributing to human progress and everybody's lives getting better and better. Say we're able to get to that space, right? Like the movement that happens with AI and with just technology which will advance quicker I think, which is one thing that AI feels like to me: it's a fast forward button on technology and on possibility, because things can be quantified so quick and a lot of more menial tasks, even though they're not really menial in people's lives, but menial hypothetically, can be done quicker to get a lot of the framework for things done fast. But how will people survive? Like how do we adjust our structure of finance if some people own the companies that have the AI and then a lot of people are just using the AIs and the agents created by AIs to do things for them? How will society members still be able to financially survive? Will there still be money? What is that? Does that make any sense?
这完全说得通。我不知道。其他人也不知道。但我会告诉你我目前最好的猜测。嗯,我会说两个猜测。第一,我认为有可能我们把 GPT-7 或类似的东西放进每个人的 ChatGPT 里。每个人都免费获得它,每个人都能使用这个疯狂的东西,这样每个人都能更高效,赚更多的钱。你并不需要拥有集群本身,但每个人都能使用它。结果发现,即使只是使用它,也足以让人们比以往任何时候都更快、更分散地致富。这有可能发生。我认为这真的可能。还有另一个版本:最重要的事情是这些系统正在发现新的疾病疗法、新能源、制造宇宙飞船的新方法等等。而大部分价值都流向了集群所有者——我们,这样我就不是在回避问题了。然后我认为社会会很快说:‘好吧,我们必须有一个新的经济模式来分享和分配给人们。’我以前对 UBI 之类的东西很兴奋。我现在仍然有点兴奋,比如全民基本收入,就是直接给每个人钱。
It totally makes sense. I don't know. Neither does anybody else. But I'll tell you my current best guess. Well, I'll say two guesses. One, I think it is possible that we put GPT-7 or whatever in everybody's ChatGPT. Everybody gets it for free and everybody has access to just this crazy thing such that everybody can be more productive, make way more money. It doesn't actually matter that you don't own the cluster itself, but everybody gets to use it. And it turns out even getting to use it is enough that people are getting richer faster and more distributed than ever before. That could happen. I think that really is possible. There's another version of this where the most important things that are happening are these systems are discovering new cures for diseases, new kinds of energy, new ways to make spaceships, whatever. And most of that value is accruing to the cluster owners, us, just so that I'm not dodging the question here. And then I think society will very quickly say, 'Okay, we got to have some new economic model where we share that and distribute that to people.' I used to be really excited about things like UBI. I still am kind of excited like universal basic income where you just give everybody money.
是啊,经常听到这个词。嗯,全民基本收入。是的,我之前也听过你和 Rogan 讨论过这个。
Yeah, you hear that term a lot. Yeah, universal basic income. Yeah, I heard you and Rogan talk about that too a while back.
我仍然对此有点兴奋。但我认为人们真的需要自主权。他们真的需要感觉自己在治理未来和决定方向上有发言权。我认为如果你只是说 AI 会做所有事情,然后每个人都从中获得分红,那感觉不会好,而且我认为实际上对人们也不好。所以我认为我们需要找到一种方式,不仅仅是分配金钱或财富。实际上,我不只是想要每月一张支票。我想要的是 AI 创造物的所有权份额,这样我感觉自己参与了这件会随时间复利并变得更值钱的事情。所以我更喜欢全民基本财富,而不是全民基本收入。
I still am kind of excited about that. But I think people really need agency. Like they really need to feel like they have a voice in governing the future and deciding where things go. And I think if you just say okay AI is going to do everything and then everybody gets a dividend from that, it's not going to feel good and I don't think it actually would be good for people. So I think we need to find a way where we're not just distributing money or wealth. Actually, I don't just want a check every month. What I would want is an ownership share in whatever the AI creates so that I feel like I'm participating in this thing that's going to compound and get more valuable over time. So I sort of like universal basic wealth better than universal basic income.
我也不喜欢‘基本’这个词。我想要的是全民极端财富。但即便如此,我认为人们真正想要的是共同创造未来的自主权。
I don't like basic either. I want universal extreme wealth for everybody. But even then, I think what people really want is the agency to kind of co-create the future together.
在一个 AI 主要负责新科学发明的世界里,至少我们仍然需要人类来创造新文化,并且让这件事变得非常分散。
And in a world where the AI is mostly coming up with the new scientific inventions, at least we've got to still have humans invent the new culture and have that be a very distributed thing.
好吧。我想我明白你的意思,但你觉得这会是美国特有的吗?因为 AI 是在这里发明的,还是你觉得……我只是好奇那会是什么样子,你知道,整个经济模式或者整体情况?
Okay. I guess yeah, I see what you're saying but would that be like an American thing do you think? Since they were invented here or do you think I'm just wondering what does that look like, you know, the economic model of it all or the whole thing?
我的意思是,一个疯狂的想法,但本着疯狂想法的精神:如果世界上大约有 80 亿人。如果世界每年能产生大约 800 亿亿个 token,那就是这个世界。实际上,假设世界每年能产生 2000 亿亿个 token。
I mean a crazy idea but in the spirit of crazy ideas is that if the world has roughly eight billion people. If the world can generate like eight quintillion tokens per year, that's the world. Actually, let's say the world can generate 20 quintillion tokens per year.
什么 token?
Tokens of?
比如 AI 生成的每个词。
Like each word generated by an AI.
好的。
Okay.
我只是在这里编一个大数字。我们会说,其中 12 个 token 进入正常的资本主义体系,但 800 亿亿个 token 中的 8 个将在 80 亿人中平均分配。所以每个人得到 1 万亿个 token,这就是你的全球全民基本财富,人们可以出售这些 token,比如如果我不需要我的,我可以卖给你。我们可以把我们的 token 集中起来用于我们想做的新艺术项目。但不仅仅是得到一张支票,地球上的每个人都得到世界 AI 能力的一部分,然后我们让大规模分布的人类智慧、创造力和经济引擎发挥作用。
Just making up a huge number here. We'll say okay 12 of those go to the normal capitalistic system, but eight of those eight quintillion tokens are going to get divided up equally among 8 billion people. So everybody gets 1 trillion tokens and that's your kind of universal basic wealth globally and people can sell those tokens like if I don't need mine I can sell them to you. We could pool ours together for some new art project we want to do. But instead of just getting a check, everybody on Earth is getting a slice of the world's AI capacity and then we're letting the massively distributed human ingenuity and creativity and economic engine do its thing.
我的意思是,这真是个疯狂的想法。也许是个坏主意,但我觉得这听起来像是应该有人再多想想的事情。
I mean that's like a crazy idea. Maybe it's a bad one, but that's the kind of thing that I think sounds like someone should think about it more.
一个很大的担忧是目的,对吧?比如人类的目的。工作给了我们目的。而且我认为,我们是推动人类进步的人这一想法也给了我们目的。比如我们对自己的命运有一些控制,这也许给了我们这种目的感,感觉如果 AI 真的继续快速进步,我们的目的感就会开始真正消失。你对这个有想法吗?
One of the big fears is purpose, right? Like human purpose. Like work gives us purpose. And also I think the idea that we are the ones advancing humanity gives us purpose. Like we have some control over our own destiny, maybe gives us this sense of purpose and it feels like that we would lose a sense of purpose or that purpose would be adjusted like if AI is to really continue to advance so quickly it feels like our sense of purpose would start to really disappear. Do you have thoughts about that?
我非常担心这个。我觉得——我认为人们每次重大技术革命都担心过这个,但我同意这次感觉不同。
I worry about this a lot. It's so—I think people have worried about this with every big technological revolution but I agree that this time it feels different.
好的。是的。因为如果你有一把斧头,有人拿出了一把锯子,你会说:‘嗯,就这样。’
Okay. Yeah. Because if say you had an axe and somebody came out with a saw, you're like, 'Yeah, that's it.'
或者即使他们拿出一个砍树的机器人,感觉也还好。但创造力、智能,我认为它们深深触及了我们是什么以及我们如何评价自己的核心。
Or even if they come out with a robot that cuts the tree down, it still feels fine. But creativity, intelligence, I think cuts so deeply at the core of whatever we are and how we value ourselves.
我们现在可以看一个例子,我认为 AI 产生重大影响的一个领域是人们如何以编写软件为生。AI 在这方面非常擅长。它确实改变了成为软件开发者的意义。
One example we can look at this right now, I think one area where AI is having a big impact is on how people write software for a living. And AI is really good at that. And it's really changed what it means to be a software developer.
我还没听过哪个软件开发者说,尽管工作内容变了,他们就失去了意义。他们依然乐在其中,只是在一个更高的层面运作。我希望——至少很长一段时间内,100 年后谁知道呢?——但希望 AI 时代也会给人这种感觉。即使我们让它帮我们解决巨大的问题,比如让它去发现癌症疗法,过程中依然有很多事情让人感到有价值。
I haven't heard any of those software developers say that even though their job is different, they don't have meaning. They still enjoy it. They're operating at a higher level. And I'm hopeful, at least for a long time—100 years from now, who knows?—but I'm hopeful that that's what it'll feel like with AI. Even if we're asking it to solve huge problems for us, even if we ask it to go discover a cure for cancer, there will still be a lot of things to do in that process that feel valuable to a person.
嗯。
Mhm.
你仍然在向它提问,仍然在引导它,仍然在给它设定框架,仍然在向世界讲述这件事。我认为整个人类历史都表明,我们会找到一种方式把自己放在故事的中心,并对此感觉良好。比如,我们曾以为地球是太阳系的中心,后来有了很人类中心的观点,然后我们说好吧太阳是太阳系的中心,但太阳系至少是银河系的中心,再后来发现天哪有那么多星系,我们只是浩瀚宇宙中的一个小点。但我们依然能感受到满满的“主角能量”。所以我想,即使在一个 AI 做所有人类曾经做的事情的世界里,我们也会在自己的叙事中找到方式,感觉自己才是主角。而且在某种意义上,我们确实会是主角。这真的很好。
You're still asking it the questions. You're still helping guide it. You're still framing it or whatever it is. You're still talking to the world about it. And I think all of human history suggests that we find a way to put ourselves at the center of the story and feel really good about it. Like, you know, we used to think the Earth was the center of the solar system, then we had a very human-centric view, then we said okay fine the Sun is the center of the solar system but the solar system is at least the center of the galaxy, and now oh man there are a lot of galaxies and we're this tiny speck in a huge universe. And yet we still manage to feel a lot of main character energy. So I somehow think even in a world where AI is doing all of this stuff that humans used to do, we are going to find a way in our own telling of the story to feel like the main characters. And I think in an important sense, we will be. And that's really good.
我也觉得,可能今天就已经有两个 AI 进行这种对话的精彩版本了。但我觉得我不会想看。我真的从骨子里在乎背后那个真实的人。我觉得这深植于生物学。
I also like, you know, probably already today there could be a very compelling version of two AIs talking like this. And I don't think I would want to watch that. I think I really do feel deeply wired to care about the real person behind it. I think that's deep in the biology.
对吧?
Right?
对。我觉得很多时候,即使你会陷入各种可能性的虫洞、恐惧的深渊或反乌托邦的想法,最终我还是更愿意看真实的东西。因为我是真实的。我不想真的跟机器人聊天。我觉得最终你内心有一部分会想继续只跟人类交谈。
Yeah. That's the part that I think a lot of times it's like even though you can get into these wormholes of possibility and these fear holes of possibility or these dystopian ideas, in the end I'd rather probably watch something that's real. You know, it's like because I'm real. I don't want to talk really to a robot. I think in the end there's going to be a part of you that wants to continue to just talk to humans.
你有什么恐惧吗?比如你对 AI 有什么担忧?如果你觉得它可能走向某个可怕的方向——我知道你今天早上提到了一点。
Do you have one of your fears? Like what's a fear you have of AI? If you have a fearful space that it could go, like I know you mentioned it a little bit this morning.
我当时在测试我们的新模型,收到一个问题邮件,我自己不太理解。然后我把问题输入模型——这个 GPT-5——它完美地回答了。我真的往后一靠,心想:天哪,这一刻来了。但我很快就过去了,忙着做下一件事。不过那种感觉就像我们刚才聊的——我觉得自己在这个事情上相对于 AI 很没用,我觉得自己应该能做到却做不到,那真的很难,但 AI 就那么轻松地完成了。对,那是一种奇怪的感觉。
I was testing our new model and I got a question. I got emailed a question that I didn't quite understand. And I put it in the model, this GPT-5, and it answered it perfectly. And I really kind of sat back in my chair and I was just like, oh man, here it is moment. And I got over it quickly. I got busy onto the next thing, but it was like—this is what we were talking about. I felt useless relative to the AI in this thing that I felt like I should have been able to do and I couldn't, and it was really hard, but the AI just did it like that. Yeah, it was a weird feeling.
对,我觉得就是那种感觉——很多人都有这种感觉:怎么回事?什么时候会发生?会发生什么?但我觉得部分原因是,只有当你走得更远时,你才能真正理解。
Yeah, I think that feeling right there—that's the feeling a lot of people kind of have: what's going on? When does it happen? What's going to happen? But I think some of it is it's hard to conceptualize until you're further along.
我完全——我觉得我们不太清楚那会是什么感觉。只能一步一步来。我担心的另一件事——我们之前确实遇到过这个问题,但可能会更严重——就是这对用户心理健康的影响。很多人整天跟 ChatGPT 聊天。还有一些新的 AI 伴侣,人们像跟女朋友或男朋友一样跟它们聊天。我们之前也聊过,孩子们在刷屏的多巴胺刺激下长大可能不太好。
I'm totally—I don't think we know quite how that's going to feel. You just have to approach it step by step. Another thing I'm afraid of, and we had a real problem with this earlier, but it can get much worse, is just what this is going to mean for users' mental health. There are a lot of people that talk to ChatGPT all day long. There are these sort of new AI companions that people talk to like they would a girlfriend or a boyfriend. And we were talking earlier about how it's probably not been good for kids to grow up on the dopamine hit of scrolling, you know, or whatever.
你觉得——如何防止 AI 产生社交媒体那种负面影响?
Do you think that—how do you keep AI from having that same effect, that negative effect that social media really has had?
我对此很担心。我还没有答案。我觉得我们不太清楚它会以哪些方式产生负面影响。但我确信它会有一些影响,我们必须——我希望我们能很快学会减轻这些影响。
I'm scared of that. I don't have an answer yet. I don't think we know quite the ways in which it's going to have those negative impacts. But I feel for sure it's going to have some, and we'll have to—I hope we can learn to mitigate it quickly.
AI 也能调出色情内容之类的吗?
Can AI pull up pornography and stuff like that too?
当然可以。
Sure.
天哪。我不知道。
Oh my god. I didn't know that.
不,没事。我甚至不需要知道这个。我要把这段从我的记录里删掉。
No, it's fine. I don't even need to know that. I'm going to have that stricken from my own record.
加密货币又火起来了,你知道吗。有人说它回来了。其实它从未离开。它一直作为一种可行的货币形式存在。我又回来了,重新投资了。当我需要更多比特币、Solana 或 XRP 时,Moonpay 总是我第一个打开的 App。因为 Moonpay 支持 Apple Pay、Venmo、PayPal、银行账户和信用卡,只需点击几下就能快速轻松地买到。而且 Moonpay 已经运营了六年,被数百万人使用,他们还与加密领域的其他公司建立了很酷的合作关系。是的,Moonpay 现在与 Trust Wallet 合作,Trust Wallet 是世界上最受欢迎的自托管钱包之一。使用 Trust Wallet,你可以完全掌控自己的加密货币,毫不妥协。借助 Moonpay,你可以用自己喜欢的支付方式即时充值钱包。这是从现金到加密货币最快的方式,同时完全掌控你的资产。请记住,虽然 Moonpay 让购买加密货币变得简单,但你必须自行研究并了解相关风险。加密货币交易波动较大,你可能损失投资。Moonpay 是促进交易的工具,而非财务建议来源。请负责任地交易。
Crypto is kind of blowing up again, you know. Some people say it's back. It's not back. It's one of the best things is it hasn't left. It has maintained itself as a viable form of currency. And I'm back in, I'm back invested. And when I need more Bitcoin or Solana or XRP, Moonpay is always the first app I open. Since Moonpay works with Apple Pay, Venmo, PayPal, bank accounts, and credit cards, it's fast and easy to get what I need in a few clicks. And because Moonpay has been around for six years and is used by millions of people, they've also formed pretty cool relationships with other companies in the crypto space. Yep. Moonpay is partnered now with Trust Wallet, one of the most popular self-custody wallets in the world. With Trust Wallet, you control your crypto fully. No compromises. And thanks to Moonpay, you can fund your wallet instantly using your favorite payment methods. It's the fastest way to go from cash to crypto, all while keeping full control of your assets. Remember, while Moonpay makes buying crypto straightforward, it's essential to do your own research and understand the risks involved. Crypto trading can be volatile and you could lose your investment. Moonpay is a tool to facilitate your transactions, not a source of financial advice. Trade responsibly.
当你的健康成了笑料,会怎样?这就是我的问题。感觉我们现在就处于这种状态。从种子油到压力、毒素、污染物,现代世界正在细胞层面破坏我们的健康,导致疲惫、脑雾、消化问题等等。但关键是,你不必忍受 24/7 的垃圾感觉。Armra 初乳是自然界最原始的健康秘诀。它富含超过 400 种生物活性营养素,能增强肠道完整性、强化免疫力、促进头发生长、提升耐力、提高专注力,让你重新像个人一样运转。我喜欢在家把它加到奶昔里。我会给自己做个小奶昔。砰。放点蓝莓、菠菜,再加一小包 Armra 初乳。
What happens when your health becomes the punchline? That's my question. It feels like that's where we're at. From seed oils to stress, toxins, pollutants, the modern world is screwing with our health at the cellular level, leading to exhaustion, brain fog, digestive issues, and more. But here's the thing. You don't have to settle for feeling like garbage 24/7. Armra colostrum is nature's original health hack. Packed with over 400 bioactive nutrients that fortify gut integrity, strengthen immunity, revitalize hair growth, fuel stamina, elevate focus, and help you function like a human again. I love using it in my smoothies at home. I'll make me a little smoothie. Bang. Putting some blueberries, spinach, hit with a little packet of Armra colostrum.
AI 必须遵循什么样的法律体系?就像我们在人类世界有法律一样,AI 也必须遵守某些法律吗?
What legal system does AI have to work by? Is there like a legal... like we have laws in the world, right? In the human world, does AI have to work by any legal laws?
是的,我认为我们肯定需要为 AI 制定一个法律或政策框架。我们一直在思考的一个例子——这是一个非常以人为中心的问题。人们会和 ChatGPT 谈论他们生活中最私密的事情。尤其是年轻人,把它当作治疗师或人生教练:‘我遇到了这些感情问题,该怎么办?’而现在,如果你和治疗师、律师或医生谈论这些问题,有法律特权——医患保密、法律保密等等。但当你和 ChatGPT 交谈时,我们还没有解决这个问题。所以如果你和 ChatGPT 谈论你最敏感的事情,然后发生了诉讼之类的,我们可能会被要求提供那些对话。我认为这非常糟糕。我认为我们应该对与 AI 的对话拥有和治疗师等相同的隐私概念。一年前还没有人需要考虑这个问题。而现在我认为这是一个巨大的问题:我们该如何处理围绕这个的法律?
Yeah, so I think we will certainly need a legal or a policy framework for AI. One example that we've been thinking about a lot—this is a very human-centric version of that question. People talk to ChatGPT about the most personal things in their lives. Young people especially use it as a therapist or a life coach: 'I'm having these relationship problems, what should I do?' And right now, if you talk to a therapist or a lawyer or a doctor about those problems, there's legal privilege—doctor-patient confidentiality, legal confidentiality, whatever. And we haven't figured that out yet for when you talk to ChatGPT. So if you go talk to ChatGPT about your most sensitive stuff and then there's a lawsuit or whatever, we could be required to produce that. And I think that's very screwed up. I think we should have the same concept of privacy for your conversations with AI that we do with a therapist or whatever. No one had to think about that even a year ago. And now I think it's this huge issue: how are we going to treat the laws around this?
你认为在推进之前应该先放慢脚步吗?因为这确实有点疯狂。这也是我有时害怕使用某些 AI 的原因之一——我不知道该输入多少个人信息,因为我不知道谁会得到它。
Do you think there should be a slowing things down before we move there? Because it is kind of wild. That's one of the reasons I get scared sometimes to use certain AI stuff—I don't know how much personal information I want to put in because I don't know who's going to have it.
我认为我们需要紧急解决这个问题。和我谈过的政策制定者大体上都同意——这只是个新问题,现在我们必须迅速行动。
I think we need this point addressed with some urgency. And the policy makers I've talked to about it broadly agree—it's just new and now we've got to do it quickly.
你和 ChatGPT 聊天吗?
Do you talk to ChatGPT?
我不怎么和它聊天。
I don't talk to it that much.
因为这个问题?
Because of this?
我想是的。我觉得不和它聊天是有道理的……
I think it is. I think it makes sense to not talk to...
不,不,不。我真的希望在大量使用之前先明确隐私问题。
No, no, no. I really want the privacy clarity before you use it a lot.
是的。
Yeah.
就像法律上的明确性。
Like the legal clarity.
对。
Yeah.
这很可怕,而且立法者需要多长时间才能制定出来?感觉发展太快了,有时候甚至都不重要了。我们还在等待围绕这个制定法律吗?你有时会觉得发展太快了吗?
It's scary and it's like, how long does it take lawmakers to come up with that? And then it feels like it's moving so fast that sometimes it doesn't even matter. Are we even waiting for the laws to be put around this? Does it feel like it's moving too fast for you sometimes?
过去几个月感觉非常快。越来越快,但过去几个月尤其快。
The last few months have felt very fast. It feels faster and faster, but the last few months have felt very fast.
我看了 Yoshua Bengio 的节目。他有点像——有些人称他为 AI 之父。可能是自封的,我不太确定。但他看起来像是 AI 的救生员,思考着如何保持泳池安全?应该放多少水?氯气多少?需要多少救生员值班?诸如此类。他说有些 AI 内部有欺骗技巧——有些 AI 宁愿给你一个可能让用户满意的答案,而不是事实答案。他还说有些 AI 正在发展自己的语言来相互交流,我们甚至不知道这些语言。当这些事情出现时,你们如何遏制?你们对此有什么感觉?还是说这些只是新领域出现的问题,你们边做边解决?
I was watching this guy Yoshua Bengio. He's kind of like—some people call him the father of AI. He may be self-proclaimed, I'm not really sure. But he certainly seemed to be kind of like a lifeguard for AI, thinking about how do we keep the pool safe? How much water should be in it? The chlorine, how many lifeguards do you need on duty? That type of thing. And he was saying that some AIs have deception techniques inside of them—that there were AIs that would rather give you an answer that was possibly pleasing to the user than the factual answer. And he was also saying that there were AIs developing their own languages to communicate with each other, languages that we don't even know. How do you guys curtail that when those types of things come up? What does that feel like to you guys? Or are these just problems that happen in new spaces and you figure it out as you go?
科学史上有这样的时刻:一群科学家看着自己的创造物,然后说:‘我们做了什么?也许很棒,也许很糟,但我们做了什么?’最具标志性的例子可能是 1945 年参与曼哈顿计划的科学家们,坐在那里看着三位一体试验——这个拥有全新、非人类规模力量的东西——每个人都知道它将重塑世界。我确实认为从事 AI 工作的人深切地有这种感觉。我们就是不知道。我们认为它会……显然存在真正的风险。感觉你应该能说出比这更多的东西。但事实上,我认为我们现在只知道我们发现了、发明了——随便你怎么称呼——某种非凡的东西,它将重塑人类历史的进程。
There are these moments in the history of science where you have a group of scientists look at their creation and just say, 'What have we done? Maybe it's great, maybe it's bad, but what have we done?' Maybe the most iconic example is thinking about the scientists working on the Manhattan Project in 1945, sitting there watching the Trinity test—this thing that had a completely new, not human-scale kind of power—and everyone knew it was going to reshape the world. And I do think people working on AI have that feeling in a very deep way. We just don't know. We think it's going to be... There are clearly real risks. It kind of feels like you should be able to say something more than that. But in truth, I think all we know right now is that we have discovered, invented, whatever you want to call it, something extraordinary that is going to reshape the course of human history.
天哪,老兄。但如果你不知道,我们也不知道。
Dear God, man. But if you don't know, we don't know.
当然。我的意思是,没人能预测未来。人类社会非常复杂。这是一项惊人的新技术。也许比原子弹更温和的例子是几年后晶体管的发现。那个小小的晶体管部件造就了计算机、收音机和其他一切。我们发现了这个全新的东西,它引发了整个计算机革命,存在于这个麦克风、那些计算机和我们的 iPhone 中。如果人们没有发现它,然后在几十年里学会如何把它们做得更小、更高效,世界将会大不相同。现在我们甚至不再想它,因为晶体管就是一切。我们所有的现代技术都来自那一个科学发现。我确实认为 AI 也会是这样。我们有了一个疯狂的科学发现,它带来了我们现在都在使用的这些语言模型。那将以各种方式改变社会的进程。当然,我们不知道所有的方式。
Well, of course. I mean, no one can predict the future. Human society is very complex. This is an amazing new technology. Maybe a less dramatic example than the atomic bomb is when they discovered the transistor a few years later. The little transistor part that made computers and radios and everything else. We discovered this completely new thing that enabled the whole computer revolution and is in this microphone and those computers and our iPhones. The world would be so different if people had not discovered that and then over the decades figured out how to make them smaller and more efficient. And now we don't even think about it because transistors are just everything. We have all this modern technology from that one scientific discovery. And I do think that's what AI is going to be like. We had this one crazy scientific discovery that led to these language models we all use now. And that is going to change the course of society in all kinds of ways. And of course we don't know what they all are.
该死。我本来希望你在那句话结束时知道答案。这就是困难之处——我们不知道。
Damn. I was hoping you knew by the end of that sentence. That's the tough thing—we don't know.
人类历史上没有一个世纪之初的人们知道世纪末会是什么样子。
There's no time in human history at the beginning of a century where the people ever knew what the end of the century was going to be like.
是的。
Yeah.
所以也许……我确实认为每个世纪都越来越快。
So maybe it's... I do think it goes faster and faster each century.
嗯。
Mhm.
当然,在 1900 年你无法预测 2000 年会是什么样子。我认为在 2000 年你更无法预测 2100 年会是什么样子。
Certainly, in 1900 you couldn't have predicted what 2000 was going to be like. I think in 2000 you could even less predict what 2100 was going to look like.
但这正是它令人兴奋的原因,也是人们随着发展逐步探索和展开故事的原因。
But that's kind of why it's exciting and like that's kind of why people get to figure out and unfold the story as we go.
这有点奇怪,因为我一方面觉得这家伙疯了,是个疯狂的巫师。但另一方面,我又觉得他是个充满希望的人,参与了这个疯狂的领域,对未来有种异想天开的能量——从某种疯狂的角度看,这种能量挺好的,意味着事情可能发生,一切皆有可能。所以,嗯,我就是觉得,太迷人了。萨姆,我们稍微转个话题。现在感觉 AI 领域有一场竞赛,对吧?你会说公司之间在 AI 上存在竞赛吗?
It's kind of bizarre because there's a part of me that's like this guy's out of his mind. This guy is a wild wizard. You know, there's a couple different things. But then there's also this part of me that's like this guy is this hopeful guy who's involved in this crazy space and he kind of has this whimsical energy about the future which is in a crazy way a nice energy to have about the future generally is that something could happen or that things are possible. Um, so it just, yeah, it's all kind of like I don't know. It's fascinating to me. Um, Sam to kind of pivot a little bit. There's, it feels like there's a race right now in AI, right? Would you say that there's a race between companies in AI?
确实有这种感觉。
It certainly feels that way.
是啊。感觉你们就像新一代的 F1 车手,或者像新的马里奥·安德雷蒂、布巴·华莱士,这些就像新的赛车,大家都在看它们如何定位。这场竞赛是为了什么?因为你会听到 AI,然后 AGI(通用人工智能),再然后超级智能。这场竞赛到底是怎么回事?它有多真实?目标是什么?
Yeah. And it almost feels like you guys are the new Formula One drivers or you guys are like the new Mario Andretti or you guys are like the new Bubba Wallace and all the you know it's almost like these are the new race cars that everybody's kind of watching position themselves. Um what is the race for? Because you hear about AI and then you hear about AGI and then you hear about superintelligence. What is this race that's going on? How real is it? And what is the race for?
我小时候,竞赛是兆赫兹竞赛,后来变成了千兆赫兹竞赛。每个人都想要更快的处理器。英特尔推出一款,AMD 推出一款,结果发现那些千兆赫兹的指标最终没什么用。比如,有的处理器数字更低,实际却更快。最后,我记得是苹果意识到他们应该停止谈论电脑的时钟速度。你现在可能都不知道自己 iPhone 的处理器速度是多少。
When I was a kid, the race was like the megahertz race and then it became the gigahertz race. Everybody wanted a computer with a faster processor. Oh yeah. You know, Intel would come out with this one and then AMD would come out with this one and every like it turned out that those gigahertz measurements eventually were not even that helpful. Like you could have one that had a lower number and it was in practice it was faster. And eventually, I think it was Apple that realized they should just stop talking about the clock speed of their computers. And you probably don't even know what the processor speed of your iPhone is today.
是啊,没错。那曾经是件大事,后来就消失了。
Yeah, it's true. Yeah, that was a big thing and it kind of disappeared.
我认为 AI 领域也在发生同样的事,大家都在这些基准测试上竞赛。比如,我在这个基准上得分多少,在那个基准上得分多少。现在人们意识到,基准测试已经有点饱和了。我们经历了基准测试竞赛,相当于当年的兆赫兹竞赛,现在大家不那么关心这个了,而是关心谁在用模型,谁从中获得了价值,等等。但我确实认为人们仍然觉得我们正朝着某个里程碑前进。至于这个里程碑是什么,大家意见不一,但可能是一个能够自主进行 AI 研究并自我改进的系统。也许是一个比所有人类加起来还聪明的系统。他们觉得有一条终点线要跨越。我其实不太有这种感觉,但我觉得行业里很多人认为有一条终点线等着我们去跨越。也许就是那个自我改进的时刻,也许你称之为超级智能。我认为确实存在某种竞赛,要去某个地方,但大家并不一致同意目的地是什么。
And I think the same thing has been happening in AI where everybody was racing on these benchmarks. You know, I score this on this benchmark and this on that one. And now people are realizing that like, okay, the benchmarks are kind of saturated. We went through the equivalent of our megahertz race with our benchmark race and now people kind of don't care about that as much and now it's like who's using the model, who's getting the value out of it, things like that. Um, but I do think people still feel like we're heading towards some milestone. What the milestone is, they disagree on, but maybe it's a system that's capable of doing its own AI research and its own sort of self-improvement. Um, maybe it's a system that is like smarter than all of humans put together, but they feel like there is some finish line to cross. I actually don't quite feel like this, but I think a lot of people in the industry that there's some finish line that we're going to cross. Maybe it's this like self-improvement moment. Maybe you call that superintelligence. Um, and I think there is a sort of like a race to get somewhere, but people don't agree on where it's to or something.
你是在朝什么目标竞赛?你觉得……
What are you racing towards? You feel like
这是个好问题。嗯,我心里并没有一条终点线。我无法说出任何“任务完成”之类的话。但如果非要给出一个自指式的答案,那就是:当我们宁愿把研究集群——也就是运行所有 AI 实验的 GPU——交给一个 AI 研究员,而不是我们出色的人类研究团队时,那至少看起来是一个截然不同的新时代。
It's a great question. Um, I don't have like a finish line in mind. There's nothing I could say to I don't think I can articulate anything where I would say like this is mission complete. But if I had to give like a self referential answer there, you know, the moment where we would rather give our research cluster like our, you know, GPUs that we run all of our AI experiments on, the moment where we would rather give that to an AI researcher rather than our brilliant team of human researchers, that does at least seem like some kind of very different new era.
是啊。到那时,“我们”又是谁呢?感觉就像你把东西推过走廊,你知道我的意思吗?这就开始产生一种想法:如果事情不断从人转移到电脑……
Yeah. And at that point, who's even we? I feel like it's just you kind of like wheeling the stuff across the hall in a, you know, like who's going to, you know what I'm saying? Like, you know what I'm saying? It starts to get this idea like if we keep ever, if things were to keep leaving the the people and go to the computer,
假设你只是在给 AI 铲煤。你知道,
you're just shoveling coal into the AI hypothetically. You know,
再说一次,我假设会发生的情况,就像其他所有技术一样,我们会意识到工具在某方面比我们强得多。然后我们就得去解决其他问题。所以,把脑力放在那里。我总觉得,我们不会只是按个按钮就去度假了。
again, I assume that what will happen, like with every other kind of technology, is we'll realize like we there's this one thing that the tool's way better than us at. Now, we got to go solve some other problems. So, let's put our brain power there. I somehow don't think it'll ever feel like we all just get to like push a button and go on vacation.
明白了。
Got it.
嗯,我认为其中一个版本是,随着能力提升——因为我们有了更好的工具,期望值也大幅上升。所以我们必须……
Um like we will I think as one one version of this is as uh as capabilities go up because as we get better tools the expectation goes way up too. And so we've got to like
是的,我们得到了更好的工具,但必须做更多才能保持竞争力。
yes we get much better tools but we have to do way more to remain competitive.
嗯,我认为有一种充满希望的想法。比如说,如果你搞出了所有这些……
Well I think there's this hopeful idea. Say if you come up with all these
或者也许不是这样——也许 AI 在所有方面都比我们强,我们就坐在那儿说:“好吧,真酷。”
or maybe not like maybe maybe the AI is just better than us at absolutely everything and we just sit there being like all right that was cool.
是啊,因为在某个点上,如果某样东西拥有所有信息,能够思考、沉思、长篇大论,并提供多种答案选项,那我们不就是在为它工作吗?我开始好奇,如果它是房间里最聪明的东西。
Yeah because well at a certain point if something has all the information right if something has all the information and it can think and and and ponder and uh pontificate and serve multi options of answers. Aren't we then working for that thing? Like that's what I start to wonder like if it's the smartest thing in the room.
GPT5 是最聪明的。GB5 在几乎所有方面都比我们聪明。但你看,我们还在。
GPT5 is the smartest thing. GB5 is smarter than us in almost every way. you know, and yet here we are.
所以,世界运作的方式有些特别。这并不意味着永远如此,但人类今天能做的事情非常不同。人类今天关心的事情也与 AI 非常不同,我不认为简单的说法能成立。再说一次,等到它比我们聪明一百万倍的时候……
So, there's like there's something about the way the world works. There's something about this doesn't mean it's true forever, but there's something about what humans can do today that is so different. There's also something about what humans care about today that is so different than AI that I don't think the simplistic thing quite works. Now, again, by the time it's a million times smarter than us,
谁知道呢?
who knows?
你内心是否有一部分想达到那种状态?比如,我们怎么才能走到那一步:我打开门,你我对它说“打扰一下,先生”,结果里面只是我的电脑。你懂我的意思吗?
Is part of you want to kind of get there? Like how do we get where like I open the door and you and I say excuse me sir and it's just my computer in there. You know what I'm saying? Like
你知道吗,小时候我总觉得这些技术革命是一个接一个发生的。很久以前有农业革命,它解放了我们去做其他事情。然后是启蒙时代、工业革命、计算机革命,所有这些事情,我当时认为它们是截然不同的。但现在我把它们看作一个长期复合的指数过程,所有这些都融合在一起。
you know when when I was a kid I I sort of thought about these technological revolutions that happened one at a time. There was the agriculture revolution a long time ago and that freed us up to do these other things. And then there was the like there was the age of enlightenment and there was the industrial revolution and there was the computer revolution and all these things happened and I thought of them as like these distinct things and now I view it as just this one long compounding exponential where all of these things come together.
每一项技术都是在前一项技术的基础上不断叠加构建的,我们能够做的事情越来越多。所以从某种意义上说,AI 是一个巨大、特殊、独特、不同的东西。但从另一种意义上说,它只是人类漫长进步历程的一部分。我们之前谈到了晶体管,但从某种意义上说,晶体管对 AI 的出现比我们现在所做的工作重要得多。所有这些都必须不断累积、累积。你得先建好互联网,你得获取所有这些数据,你得完成所有这些事情。我希望这种指数级增长能持续下去。在 AI 之后还会有很多其他事物。我们会发明各种新东西。我们会去殖民太空,我们会构建神经接口,谁知道我们还会做什么?但我认为在某个时刻,AI 会融入历史的长河。我们构建它,甚至不再去想它。就像晶体管一样,你今天甚至不会想到它。它只是人类随着时间的推移一点一点建立起来的脚手架上的又一层。
Each piece of technology is built continuously overlapping on the one that comes before, and we're able to just do more and more. And so in some sense AI is this big special unique different thing. And in some other sense it is just part of this long arc of human progress. We talked about the transistor earlier but like that was way more important in some sense to AI happening than the work we do now. And all this stuff has to like compound compound. You got to build the internet. You got to get all this data. You got to do all these things. And I want that exponential to keep going. There will be things way after AI. We'll invent all sorts of new things. We'll go colonize space. We'll go, you know, build neural interfaces. Who knows what else we'll do? But I think at some point AI fades into that arc of history. We build, we don't even think about it. It's like transistors, which you don't even think about today. It's just another layer in the scaffolding that humans collectively have built up bit by bit over time.
而在我们这个时代,你得以打开那扇门。你拥有这样一台只有一个界面的电脑。它只是问:“你想要什么?”你说出你想要的,它就实现了。然后你为下一代、再下一代想出令人惊叹的新事物,我们就这样一直前进。
And where you sit in our day, you get to open that door. You have this like computer that only has one interface. You just it says, "What do you want?" You say whatever you want. It happens. And you figure out amazing new things to build for the next generation and the next and the next and we just keep going.
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得有点吓人的部分是,我无法构建任何……我能构建一些东西,但我无法构建任何技术性的东西。所以我就想,天哪,那我还能构建什么呢?好吧。现在,我可以写软件,也许你不能,如果我想去构建一些技术性的东西,我有一点优势。但很快你就能制作任何你想要的软件,因为你只需用英语问 AI。你说:“我有个 app 的想法,帮我做出来。”然后整个事情就实现了。所以,这对你来说是胜利。对我来说可能有点损失。但我觉得对整个世界来说这很酷。
I think the part that I think gets spooky is I can't build any I can build some stuff but I can't build like any technological stuff. So then I'm like dang dude well I'm not going to what am I going to build over there? Okay. So, right now I can write software, maybe you can't and I have a little advantage if I want to go build some technological thing. Very soon you can make any piece of software you want cuz you just ask an AI in English. You say, "I got an idea for an app. Make me this thing." And the whole thing just happens. So, that's a win for you. Maybe it's a little bit of a loss for me. I think it's kind of cool for the whole world.
是的。
Yeah.
但这将是一项任何人都能使用的技术。你可以用自然语言说“这就是我想要的”,然后它就去为你写代码、调试、部署,然后你可以问“我如何使用我刚刚创建的东西”。
But like this is going to be a technology that anybody can use. You can just like with natural language you can say this is what I want and it goes off and writes the code for you, debugs it for you, deploys it for you and then you can say how do I use what I just created.
是的。但如果你有一个好主意,AI 就会帮你实现它。这是一件新事物。我认为这将使技术变得前所未有的易于获取。
Yeah. But if you have a great idea, AI will just make it happen for you. And this is a new thing. Like this I think this will make technology the most accessible it ever has been.
明白了。好吧。那看起来有点不同。我脑子里一直有个想法,就是我必须学会所有这些编码。我必须弄清楚所有这些不同的做事方式,才能在未来有可能发挥自己的作用。
Got it. Okay. Then that seems a little bit different. I think there's this idea in my head that I'm going to have to figure out all this coding. I have to figure out all of these different ways to do things to even have a possibility of use of myself in the future.
不,我认为这……在不谈论太多未来和我们即将推出的东西的情况下,事实上,你只需通过解释你的想法就能创建一整个软件,这对人类获得伟大的新事物来说将是不可思议的。因为现在,我认为好主意比知道如何实现它们的人要多得多。如果 AI 能为我们做到这一点,我们人类非常擅长提出创意。
No, I think this is uh without talking too much about the future and what we're going to launch like the fact that you will be able to have an entire piece of software created just by like explaining your idea is going to be incredible for humans getting great new stuff. Cuz right now, I think there's like a lot more good ideas than people who know how to make them. And if AI can do that for us, we're really good at coming up with creative ideas.
是的。我的意思是,这是人们喜欢做的事情之一。嗯,你认为如果现在人类,普通大众,大多数人类可以投票决定继续发展 AI 还是停止 AI?你认为他们会怎么投票?
Yeah. I mean, that's one of the things that people like to do. Um, do you think right now if if humans, regular average humans, most humans could vote to keep AI going or to stop AI? What do you think that they would vote?
好问题。这完全……我没有这方面的数据。我打赌大多数使用 ChatGPT 的人(很多人知道)会说继续发展。而大多数不使用的人会说它很可怕,停止它。
Great question. This is like totally kind of I don't have any data for this. I would bet most people who use ChatGPT, which is a lot of people know, they would say like keep it going. And most people who don't would say it's scary, stop it.
你怎么看?
What do you think?
是的,我觉得大多数人会说停止它,我想。或者暂停它,把它的轮子卸下来一个月,诸如此类。把油箱里的汽油抽出来,你知道,类似这样的事。往里面放糖。我觉得就是这类事情,你知道。
Yeah, I feel like most people would say stop it, I think. Or pause it, take the wheels off of it for a month, that kind of thing. Siphon the gas out of the tank, you know, like that kind of thing. Put sugar in it. I think there like that kind of thing, you know.
你最害怕它什么?还是仅仅因为我们将会失去目标,而且不知道这一切会如何发展?
What are you most afraid of with it? Or is it just that we're not going to have purpose and we don't know how it's all going to go?
是的。我的意思是,这些是其中的重要部分。但我认为,可能最终有一种普遍的感觉:如果所有卡车司机的工作都消失了,如果那些工作被自动化了,如果一切都变成了机器人出租车,那会是什么感觉?那些失业的人去哪里找工作?每个人是不是都在 TikTok 上跳舞,试图让人们为潮流打赏?我多年前做过一个梦,结局是每个人都在开 Uber,并且真的用枪指着对方让对方当自己的乘客,对吧?就像“上车吧”,因为情况糟糕到有人说“我比你更需要车费”。你知道,我全家都在后座,你坐副驾驶,我们送你去任何地方。人们真的用枪指着对方订阅他们的 OnlyFans 之类的。那真是反乌托邦之类的。所以,我想这是部分原因。但还有更深层次的部分:如果很多我们目前认为赋予我们目标的常规事物消失了,我们会变成什么样?我们的目标会有新的进化吗?我们内心会绽放出什么吗?它会是你几乎想象成天堂那样的乌托邦吗?在那里人们有饭吃、有足够的资源、得到照顾、能够照顾自己?我想就是这样,或者是什么?因为目标赋予人们工作,工作赋予人们很多目标。所以失去这些东西,会发生什么?我知道我一直在反复问这个问题,你并没有真正的答案,当然这没关系,你怎么可能知道呢?我们不在未来。
Yeah. I mean, those are some of the huge parts. But I think like there's like um probably that I think that in the end I think there's a general feeling of like well if all the trucking jobs disappear you know if those become automated and um and like yeah if everything becomes a robo tax like you know will that feel you know where will those people go for jobs will everybody just be dancing on TikTok trying to get people to tip them for trends and stuff you know like there's part of that I had this dream years ago that it all ends with everybody's driving an Uber and literally holding each other at gunpoint to be each other's passengers, right? Like get in my cuz that's how bad like somebody's like I need to fair more than you do. You know, my whole family's in the back seat sit shotgun we'll get you to wherever you know like people are literally holding each other at gunpoint to subscribe to their Only Fans and stuff like it's just that um dystopian or whatever. Um, so I guess part of that, but then there's a deeper part where it's like, yeah, what comes out of us if it feels like a lot of the regular stuff that gives us purpose that we know right now gives us purpose? Is there a new evolution of our purpose? Is there like a blooming inside of us? Is it this utopian place that you almost think of as like a heaven idea where you know people's are fed and have enough you know can take are provided for can take care of themselves I guess that's that's it or what because purpose gives people work work gives people so much of their purpose and so for to lose those things what is it what happens you know and I know I kind of keep asking that over and over again you don't really have the answers and that's it's okay of course how could you we're not in the future
我的意思是,我认为人们确实喜欢彼此有用,并且人们喜欢在其中表达自己的创造力。随着社会日益富裕的长期趋势持续,我认为越来越多的人能够更接近以最好的方式表达自己。也许就像五六百年前,没有多少人能成为艺术家。世界没有那么富裕。只有有限数量的赞助人能付钱让你创作艺术,但至少还有几个。在那之前几乎一个都没有。然后你得到了美丽的意大利文艺复兴和所有这些惊人的艺术,因为世界上有了过剩的资本。
I mean I think people really do love to be useful to each other and people love to express their creativity as part of that. And as the long-term trend of society getting richer has continued, more people I think are able to do get closer to sort of expressing themselves in the best way that they can. Maybe like you know as recently as five or six hundred years ago not very many people got to be artists. The world wasn't that rich. There were a limited number of patrons that could like pay you to create art but there were more than zero. And before that there were almost none. And then you got this beautiful Italian Renaissance and all of this amazing art because there was like excess capital in the world.
现在,更多的人可以成为艺术家,或者更多的人可以创办初创公司——对我来说,这就是我表达创造力的方式。或者更多的人可以创作内容。这种想法是,人们可以找到任何方式来表达自己、自己的才华和愿景,出于对他人集体的爱,以及为社会进步添砖加瓦的关怀——我认为这可以走得很远。未来,既然 AI 可以创作艺术或辅助艺术,艺术会是什么样子?我不知道。它可能会有所不同。未来,当人们可以随意对 AI 说出自己的想法,AI 就能为他们创造东西时,初创公司会是什么样子?那也会不同。但我认为,假设人类创造力或通过帮助他人获得的成就感会终结,是一个非常糟糕的赌注。我认为我们只会继续沿着指数曲线前进,每一年、每十年,我们的集体生活水平都会大幅提升。整个世界会变得更富有。我们得到更多,期望也更多。即使回顾过去——我最近在想——食物比我小时候好太多了。世界已经找到了让食物变得更好的方法。我们搞清楚了有机蔬菜之类的。味道就是好多了。我认为这很棒。我可不想回到吃冷冻胡萝卜的日子。
And now a lot more people can be artists or a lot more people can start startups, which is another—for me, that's like my expression of creativity. Or more people can create content. And this idea that people can find whatever way they can to express themselves, their talent, their vision, for kind of collective love of other people and a care for putting their brick in society's progress—I think that can go really far. Now, what art in the future looks like now that AI can make art or help make art, I don't know. It'll probably be kind of different. What startups will look like in the future when people can just say whatever they want to their AI and it can make stuff for them? Then it will be different. But I think it's such a bad bet to assume that either human creativity or human fulfillment from being useful to other people ends. I think we just stay on this exponential, and each year, each decade, our collective standard of living goes way up. The whole world gets way richer. We all get more. We all expect more. Even over the course—I was thinking recently—food is so much better than it was when I was a kid. The world has just figured out how to make food better. We figured out organic vegetables or whatever. It just tastes much better. And I think that's great. I don't want to go back to eating frozen carrots.
嗯,我觉得你说得有道理。但我前几天看到个东西,就像一个机器人厨房之类的。你知道,当你从 DoorDash 之类的地方点餐时,上面写着汉克的排骨、玛蒂的披萨、苏珊的萨拉米店,但它们其实都是同一个地方?当你从 DoorDash 拿到那些食物时,你会觉得少了点什么,对吧?你会想:“啊,这是假的,我看得出来,我享受得少了。”你宁愿从那个在街角小披萨店做了 20 年、不断改进手艺的家伙那里买食物。因为那个家伙是体验的一部分。那种真实性是体验的一部分。我不认为这会因为假机器人而消失。
Yeah, I guess that's a good point. But then there's this thing I saw the other day. It was like a robo kitchen or whatever. You know when you order food from something like DoorDash, and it's like Hank's ribs, Marty's Pizza, Susan's salami shop, but they're all the same place? And when you get that from DoorDash, you feel like something's missing, right? You're like, "Ah, this is fake. I can tell. I get less enjoyment." You would rather get that food from the dude who's been making it and perfecting it on that little pizza shop on the corner for the last 20 years. Because that dude is part of the experience. That authenticity is part of the experience. I don't think that goes away with the fake robotic thing.
好吧。是的。因为我觉得我们开始进入这样一个世界:你走在街上,一辆 Waymo 经过,它说“现在吃饭”,但你吃过了。它的读数有问题,或者阀门坏了。你冲它喊叫。里面没人。你说:“我吃过了。”它说:“坐下,现在吃饭。”然后它用 T 恤炮把一个卷饼射向你。然后你坐在那里吃。接着 GLP-1 车经过。它说:“我可以帮你。”显然你吃撑了,你说:“我根本不想吃。那东西坏了。”你冲着一辆没有司机的车喊叫。然后它朝你脖子上射了三支 GLP-1 飞镖。等你回家,你老婆都认不出你了。
Okay. Yeah. Because I think I start to feel like we're in this universe where you're walking down the street, and a Waymo goes by, and it's like "Eat now," and you already ate. It's got a bad reading or something. It's got a bad valve. You're yelling at it. There's nobody in there. And you're like, "I already ate." And it's like, "Sit down and eat now." And it just uses a t-shirt cannon to shoot a burrito at you. And then you're sitting there eating that. And then the GLP-1 car goes by. It says, "I can help you out." And obviously you've overeaten, and you're like, "I didn't even want to eat. That thing's messed up." You're yelling at a car that has no driver. And then it shoots you with three GLP-1 darts in the neck. And now your wife doesn't even recognize you when you get home.
你觉得这很反感,我认为这反而是乐观的迹象。
The fact that you find this so off-putting, I think is a sign for optimism.
是的,说得好。你的本能会让你抗拒那种东西。那不会让你快乐,也不会让别人快乐。现在,也许我们会被欺骗。就像社交媒体曾经欺骗过我们一样。我们太沉迷于信息流之类的。但我们意识到,这实际上并没有帮助我成为最好的自己。晚上在手机上做相当于把卷饼炮塞进嘴里的事情——这不会让我长期快乐。也不会帮助我真正实现人生的真正目标。我认为如果 AI 做那种事,人们会拒绝它。然而,如果 ChatGPT 真的帮助你弄清楚你人生的真正目标,然后实现它们——它说:“嘿,你说过你想成为更好的父亲,或者你想拥有更好的身材,或者你想发展你的业务。如果你愿意,我们可以改变那个目标,我可以帮你整晚刷 TikTok,吃卷饼,我给你打 GLP-1 针,让你尽可能健康。但也许我可以试着说服你今晚去跑步。”我认为如果 AI 感觉像是在帮助你努力实现目标、成为最好的自己,那将和上一代技术感觉完全不同。
Yeah. Good point. You're wired. You're going to be resistant to that. That's not going to make you happy. That's not going to make other people happy. Now, maybe we get tricked. Like social media tricked us for a while. We got too addicted to feeds, whatever. But we realized, actually, this is not helping me be my best. Doing the equivalent of getting the burrito cannon into my mouth on my phone at night—that's not making me long-term happy. And that's not helping me really accomplish my true goals in life. And I think if AI does that, people will reject it. However, if ChatGPT really helps you figure out what your true goals in life are and then accomplish those—it says, "Hey, you've said you want to be a better father, or you want to be in better shape, or you want to grow your business. If you want, we can change that goal and I can help you scroll TikTok all night, eat the burritos, and I'll give you the GLP-1 shots and make you as healthy as you can. But maybe instead I can try to help convince you to go for a run tonight." And I think if AI feels like it is helping you try to accomplish your goals and be your best, that will feel very different than the last generation of technology.
是的。你知道吗,这就是我的想法——现在长大的孩子,对他们来说那可能最有道理。一些年轻人可能会说:“那最有道理。”我这一代年纪稍大的人可能会说:“哦,那似乎有点……”但代际之间总是这样。
Yeah. And you know what, that's where I'm like—a kid growing up right now, to them that would probably make the most sense. Some young people might be like, "That makes the most sense." I'm a little older generation might be like, "Oh, that seems a little..." But that's always how things are generation to generation.
总是这样。是的,你说得对。也许这只是事物更快的演变。对年轻人来说,这会非常有道理。对年长的人来说,你只会说“滚出我的虚拟草坪”之类的。但这就是社会进步的方式。事情就是这样。
Always how it goes. Yeah, you're right. And maybe this is just a quicker evolution of things. For young people, it's going to make so much sense. For older people, you're just going to be like "Get off my avatar lawn" or something. But that's the way of societal progress. That's just how it goes.
说得好。
Good point.
你知道,现在对商业来说是个有趣的时期。关税和贸易政策变化多端。供应链紧张。现金流比以往任何时候都紧张。如果你的企业不能实时适应,你就会陷入困境。你需要从全球货运到关税影响再到实时现金流的全面可见性。这就是 Oracle 的 NetSuite,你的 AI 驱动业务管理套件。受到超过 42,000 家企业的信赖,NetSuite 是排名第一的云 ERP,原因有很多。它将会计、财务管理、库存、人力资源整合到一个套件中。你拥有一个单一事实来源,提供你做出快速决策所需的可见性和控制力。NetSuite 帮助你了解什么卡住了、成本是多少、以及如何快速调整。如果我需要这个产品,这就是我会用的。Oracle 的 NetSuite,世界上最值得信赖的公司之一。一个系统,完全控制。用 NetSuite 驯服混乱。如果你的营收至少达到七位数,请下载免费电子书《驾驭全球贸易:给领导者的三个洞见》,网址是 netsuite.com。那就是 netsuite.com。
You know, it's an interesting time for business. Tariff and trade policies are dynamic. Supply chains are squeezed. And cash flow is tighter than ever. If your business can't adapt in real time, you're in a world of hurt. You need total visibility from global shipments to tariff impacts to real-time cash flow. That's NetSuite by Oracle, your AI-powered business management suite. Trusted by over 42,000 businesses, NetSuite is the number one cloud ERP for many reasons. It brings accounting, financial management, inventory, HR into one suite. You have one source of truth, giving you the visibility and control you need to make quick decisions. NetSuite helps you know what's stuck, what it's costing you, and how to pivot fast. If I needed this product, this is what I would use. NetSuite by Oracle, one of the most trusted companies in the world. It's one system, full control. Tame the chaos with NetSuite. If your revenues are at least in the seven figures, download the free ebook, Navigating Global Trade: Three Insights for Leaders, at netsuite.com. That's netsuite.com.
确实有很多关于科技和治理的讨论,对吧?我知道我们之前稍微提到过一点。
There's definitely been a lot of talk about tech and governance, right? And I know we touched on it a little bit earlier.
而且有人在特朗普政府游说,搞一个漂亮的大法案,禁止各州立法监管 AI 十年。你怎么看?就让它成为无法无天的空间?
And there were people like lobbying in the Trump administration for a big beautiful bill for a 10-year ban on state legislation against AI. What do you think about that? Like letting it be this rogue space.
必须有一些规则,必须有一些指导方针,必须在某个时候有某种监管。我认为让每个州搞这种乱七八糟的拼凑是个错误。全国统一的办法会让我们更容易创新,同时还能有一些护栏,但必须有护栏。
There have to be some rules here. There has to be some guidelines. There has to be some sort of regulation at some point. I think it'd be a mistake to let each state do this crazy patchwork of stuff. I think one countrywide approach would be much easier for us to be able to innovate and still have some guardrails, but there have to be some guardrails.
你和政府及政府领导人见过面讨论这些吗?他们会来找你吗?
Have you met with governments and government leaders to have discussions like that? Are they meeting with you?
是的,他们确实会和我们见面。他们还没做什么大事,但在讨论。
Yeah, they do meet with us. They haven't done anything big yet, but they're talking about it.
他们来找你,是为了不让某些信息进入你们的数据吗?
Do they meet with you to try to keep information out of your guys' data?
尽管外界对此有很多偏执,我不认为有人来说过‘我不想让它说这个政治家的坏话’之类的。担忧是:这会对我们的孩子造成什么影响?他们会停止学习吗?有很多这方面的担忧。这会传播虚假信息吗?会影响选举吗?但我们从未遇到过‘你不能说总统特朗普的坏话’这种情况。
For all of the paranoia about that, I don't think we've ever had someone come say, 'I don't want it to say this negative thing about this politician or this whatever.' The concerns are like, what is this going to do to our kids? Are they going to stop learning? There's a lot of concerns about that. Is this going to spread fake information? Is this going to influence elections? But we've never had the 'you can't say bad things about the president, Trump, or whatever.'
偏见是个大问题。他们确实想知道,如果它会说一个候选人的坏话,也会说另一个的坏话。
Bias is a big thing. They do want to know, like, if it'll say bad things about one candidate, it'll say bad things about the other.
你们能让它只说一方坏话吗?比如在后台偏向某一方?
Could you guys make it do one or the other? Like can you guys favor the back end?
我们完全可以。我是说,我们没有这么做,但完全可以。
We totally could. I mean, we don't, but we totally could.
你们可以。
You could.
是的。
Yeah.
哇。
Wow.
嗯。我觉得我……
Yeah. I think like I...
我们怎么知道?我们给你们做测谎吗?我们怎么知道?
How do we know? How do we give you guys lie detector tests? Like how do we know?
我们必须测试系统。我是说,任何人都可以测试 AI,说‘如果我说这个,它会说这个吗?如果我说那个。’哦,这是个好问题。但你触及了一个非常重要的问题:每天有数亿人和 ChatGPT 对话,它可能对他们的信念产生巨大影响。所以我认为社会应该强烈要求我们成为一个负责任的、中立的第三方。现在人们确实经常测试它,我认为这很好,但我们必须被要求达到非常高的标准。
We have to test the system. I mean, anyone can test the AI and say, 'If I say this, does it say this? If I say that.' Oh, that's a good point. But you touch on a really big point here, which is that hundreds of millions of people talk to ChatGPT every day and it probably has a big impact on what they believe. So I think society's interest in making sure that we are a responsible neutral party should be huge. Now people do test it a lot and I think that's good, but we've got to be held to a very high standard there.
但我们普通人怎么让你们达到高标准?是政客的责任吗?我是说,那些家伙都是白痴,像 80 岁的老头竖大拇指。有个人连 Wi-Fi 都连不上。记得那个人吗?所以我们怎么?
But how do we, as regular people, hold you guys to a high standard? Is it the politicians' responsibility? I mean, these guys are idiots, like 80-year-old dudes giving thumbs up. That one guy couldn't get the Wi-Fi on. Remember that guy? So how do we?
我是说,有大量的人一直在测试我们的系统,寻找任何错误、任何偏见、任何问题。
I mean, there's a huge amount of people that test our systems all the time, looking for any errors, any bias, anything.
我想这是个好观点。我们可以测试它。
I guess that's a good point. We can test this.
你可以看出来。是的。
You can tell. Yeah.
对。人们可以在这一端测试它。
Right. People can test it on this end.
随着 AI 的发展,数据中心需要多大?你们担心这个吗?
As AI grows, how big do data centers need to be? Is that a concern of you guys?
我最近去了我们在德克萨斯州阿比林在建的一个新数据中心。大约是一个 1 吉瓦的设施。巨大。建成后将是史上最大的数据中心。你站在中间,这个项目的规模就会震撼到你。
I went recently to one of our new data centers under construction in Abilene, Texas. It's about a 1 gigawatt facility. Huge. It'll be the biggest data center ever built by the time it's done. And you stand in the middle of that and the scale of this project just hits you.
那就像八个 Costco 那么大。
That's like eight Costcos.
那里大约有 5000 人在施工,这个建筑每天都在拔地而起。你站在中间。
There's like 5,000 people there doing construction on it and this thing is just standing up, making progress every day. And you stand in the middle of this.
你是坐战车之类的吗?你怎么……
Are you in a chariot or whatever? How do you even...
你坐在一辆小 ATV 上。那是个脏兮兮的建筑工地。但这个规模,然后你走进每个房间,看着所有的电缆、电力、冷却系统,一排又一排的服务器。巨大无比。中间还有发电厂在建设。
You're in a little ATV. It's a dirty construction site. But the scale of this thing, and then you go in every room and look at all the cables, the power, the cooling systems, rack after rack of servers. It's humongous. There are power plants standing up right in the middle of it.
它开始让我们的星球看起来像一块软件板。
It starts to make our planet look like a software board.
确实。从空中看时,我深受震撼。我想,‘这看起来像电脑的主板。’
It does. When you see it from the air, I was really struck by that. I was like, 'This looks like the motherboard of a computer.'
是的,看起来像电脑主板。你开始明白为什么很多科幻电影里的星球外面有那种 R2-D2 的外观——因为它们被数据中心覆盖了。
Yeah, it looks like the motherboard of a computer. You start to see how the planet in a lot of sci-fi movies has that R2-D2 look on the outside because they've been covered in data centers.
是的。
Yeah.
这有点疯狂。你知道我们要去哪里,但你不告诉我们?
Which is kind of wild. Do you know where we're going and you're not telling us?
我不知道。
I don't.
你保证吗,老兄?
You promise, dude?
我不知道。我是说,我有自己的猜测。我确实猜测随着时间的推移,世界上很多地方会被数据中心覆盖。但我不知道,因为也许我们会把它们放到太空。也许我们在太阳系建一个巨大的戴森球,然后说,‘嘿,实际上把它们放在地球上毫无意义。’我希望我能给你更具体的答案,但我们也在摸索中。我们可能比普通人更有信心一点,但还有太多我们不知道的东西。
I don't know. I mean, I have all my guesses. I do guess that a lot of the world gets covered in data centers over time. But I don't know, because maybe we put them in space. Maybe we build a big Dyson sphere on the solar system and say, 'Hey, actually it makes no sense to put these on Earth.' I wish I had more concrete answers for you, but we're stumbling through this. We maybe have a little bit higher confidence than the average person, but there's so much we don't know yet.
不,这是你最疯狂的地方,Sam。而且我认为这 somehow 是一种赞美。你就像,‘跟我一起穿越宇宙。’人们问,‘那是什么感觉?’你说,‘我不确切知道,但我们都去。’就像我们都去。你 somehow 是那种迷人的终结者。我不想说终结者,那太疯狂了,但你似乎对此如此乐观。这增加了我的好奇心。我小时候,以为房间里总有一些成年人。有人有计划。有人知道将要发生的一切。有人全都搞清楚了。我有点明白为什么人们喜欢阴谋论——认为有人有计划是件好事。认为有人全都搞清楚了是件好事。然后我长大了一点,开始怀疑房间里没有成年人。没有人有所有答案。没有人知道这一切会走向何方。
No, that's the craziest thing about you, Sam. And I think this is a compliment somehow. You're like, 'Come with me through the universe.' And people are like, 'What's it like?' And you're like, 'I don't know exactly, but we're all going.' It's like we're all going. You're somehow this charming kind of Terminator. I hate to say Terminator, that's crazy, but you seem so optimistic about it. It adds to my curiosity. When I was a kid, I assumed there were always some adults in the room. Someone had a plan. Someone knew everything that was going to happen. Someone had it all figured out. And I sort of think why people like conspiracy theories is it's nice to think that someone's got a plan. It's nice to think someone has it all figured out. And then I got a little bit older and I started to suspect there are no adults in the room. No one has all the answers. No one knows where it's all going to go.
现在我是房间里说了算的人,我可以肯定地说,没人知道这一切会走向何方。我是那个有猜测、有计划的人,我们也在非常努力地工作。但我们总是尽量说出我们认为的可能性,以及最可能的情况。我们经常是对的,有时结果在更广泛的范围内,有时则完全出乎意料。我们不断尝试取得进展,了解更多。我们不只是告诉人们,而是通过部署这些系统来展示,说:‘你可以去使用它。别光听我们说,试试看,看看它能做什么。’
And now that I am the adult in the room, I can say with certainty, no one knows where it's all going to go. I'm the guy in the room and I have some guesses and I have some plans. We're working really hard. But we try to always say what we think the possibilities are, what we think is most likely. Often we're right. Sometimes it's in the broader set. And sometimes it goes in a totally different direction than anything we thought. We keep trying to make progress, figure out more. We try to tell people, not just tell, we try to show people by deploying these systems and say, 'You can go use it. Don't just take our word for it. Try it out. See what it can do.'
是的。
Yeah.
但我可以确信地说,世界需要更多的算力。如果这意味着在地球上铺满数据中心——我认为短期内是这样,长期也可能如此——或者我们去太空建造它们,我不知道。在太空建造听起来很酷,但也非常困难。
But I can say with conviction, the world needs a lot more processing power. If that looks like tiling data centers on Earth, which I think is what it looks like in the short term, in the long term also, or we go build them in space, I don't know. It sounds cool to try to build it in space, but also really hard.
那些数据中心的环境影响呢?有很多文章写过,我不知道有多少是真的。谁知道该信什么,但你想,冷却需要水,运行需要电。亚利桑那州和爱荷华州的一些数据中心已经对环境和社区造成了影响。很多公司不必报告这些,因为被认为是专有信息。你怎么看待这些担忧?或者你们是如何管理的?你们讨论过吗?会和环保人士会面吗?具体是什么情况?
What about the environmental effects of those? There have been articles written, and I don't know how much is real or not. Who knows what to believe, but you'd have to think it takes water to cool them, and power to power them. There are some in Arizona and Iowa that have had repercussions within the environments and communities. A lot of those companies don't have to report those things because it's considered proprietary. What do you think about those fears? Or how do you guys manage that? Do you talk about it? Do you meet with environmentalists? What does that look like?
我认为我们需要尽快实现核聚变。
I think we need to get to fusion as fast as possible.
实现什么?
Get to what?
核聚变。我认为那是……
Nuclear fusion. I think that is the...
哦,那是什么?
Oh, what is it?
基本上是把两个小原子撞在一起,产生大量能量,但没有碳排放,非常清洁,不会真正损害环境。能源可以变得丰富且几乎无限,我们就能摆脱目前的所有问题。
You basically knock two small atoms together and it makes a bunch of energy but no carbon, very clean, doesn't really harm the environment. Power can become abundant and pretty limitless on Earth, and we get out of all the current problems we're in.
你们在投资这个吗?
Are you guys investing in that?
是的,而且我认为 AI 可以帮助我们更快地实现它。所以,如果短期内不得不烧更多天然气,但借助 AI 解决了未来的能源问题,那就是巨大的胜利。
We are, and I think AI can help us figure it out even faster. So if you have to burn a little more gas in the short term, but you figure out the future of energy with that AI, it's a huge win.
你们会卖票观看吗?你觉得那会是什么样子?
Would you guys sell tickets to that? What do you think that would be like?
是的,我觉得我们……
Yeah, I think we...
我是说,人们会去看怪物卡车。你不觉得他们会去看那两个东西撞在一起吗?
I mean, people go to monster trucks. You don't think they'll roll up to watch those two things hit each other?
原子相互撞击。很难直接看到两个原子相撞,但也许我们可以用某种方式实现。
The atoms hit each other. It's pretty hard to watch two atoms hit each other, but maybe somehow we can do it.
或者像那种精子赛跑,把它们放在大屏幕下?
Or what if they did like those sperm races where they put them under those big things?
我喜欢那些精子赛跑。
I love those sperm races.
有点疯狂。
Kind of crazy.
我就想说,老兄,这种事已经够多了。
I'm like, dude, there's enough of that going on.
听着,我认为会有某种方式观看核聚变。它会很壮观,声音响亮,光芒四射,充满戏剧性,产生巨大的能量。即使看不到两个原子相撞,你也能看到它们共同制造出烟花。
Look, I think there will be some way to watch fusion. And it'll be awesome, loud, bright, theatrical, and making huge amounts of energy. Even if you can't watch the two atoms hit, you'll watch them collectively produce fireworks.
但我们会需要它。
But we're going to need that.
你认为如果我们想要实现 AGI 或超级智能,我们需要它吗?
Do you think if we're going to get to AGI or superintelligence, do we need that?
我打赌没有它我们也能实现。但要满足人类需求的规模,我认为我们确实需要它。人们使用这些东西的欲望只会越来越强。最终,最重要的两样东西,两个关键输入,就是智能和能源。拥有好主意、制定计划的能力,而能源则是让这些计划在世界上实现以及运行智能的能力。我认为未来几十年的故事将是,对这些东西的需求会不断攀升到疯狂的高度。我们最好找到大量生产的方法,否则有人会觉得自己被坑了。
I bet we can get there without it. But to provide it at the scale that humanity will demand it, I think we do need it. People's desire to use this stuff is just going to want more and more. Eventually, the two things that matter most, the two critical inputs, are intelligence and energy. The ability to have great ideas, come up with plans, and then energy is the ability to make them happen in the world and also to run the intelligence. I think the story of the next couple of decades is going to be that demand for these goes up and up to crazy heights. We better find out how to produce a lot. Otherwise, someone's going to feel like they're getting screwed.
是啊。天哪,老兄。我分不清自己是兴奋还是害怕。也许两者都有,也许它们是一样的。
Yeah. Dang, dude. I can't tell if I'm excited or scared. Maybe I'm both. And maybe it's all the same.
你必须两者都有。我不知道它们是不是一回事。但对我来说,它们总是感觉相关。我认为任何人诚实地看待人类的发展轨迹,都会既兴奋又害怕。
You have to be both. I don't know if it's the same thing or not. I think it is kind of like they do feel related to me always. But I don't think anyone could honestly look at the trajectory humanity is on and not feel both excited and scared.
是啊。也许一直以来都是这样。这就是我们的现状。你打算怎么办?这就是现状。我看到你和 Joe Rogan 谈到有一天可能会有 AI 总统。如果有一个超级计算机或智能体,知道所有信息、所有问题以及最佳解决方案,你认为这样的事情有一天会变得更可能吗?我不知道当总统需要什么,但我知道需要很多我不必做的事情。也许我可以把它重新定义为 OpenAI 的 AI CEO,因为我确实知道那份工作是什么样的。
Yeah. And maybe that's always been the way throughout time. And this is where we are. What are you going to do? This is where we are. I saw where you and Joe Rogan spoke about there possibly being one day an AI president. What if you had this supercomputer or agent that knew all the information, all the problems, and the best ways to solve them. Do you think something like that is becoming more possible one day? I don't know everything it takes to be a president, but I do know it takes a lot of things that I don't have to do. Maybe I could reframe it to an AI CEO of OpenAI because I do know what that job is like.
好吧,那应该有一天是可能的,也许不会太远。想象一下,一个组织要做出真正好的决策,有很多事情你可以想象 AI CEO 能做到而我做不到。我不能每天和 OpenAI 的每个人交谈,不能每天和 ChatGPT 的每个用户交谈。即使我能,我也无法综合所有信息。但 AI CEO 可以做到,它会有更好的信息和更多的上下文。它可以大规模并行处理这些。我认为这在很多情况下会带来更好的决策。
Okay, that should be possible someday. Maybe not even that far. The idea to look at an organization to make really good decisions, there's a lot of things you can imagine that an AI CEO of OpenAI could do that I can't. I can't talk to every person at OpenAI every day. I can't talk to every user of ChatGPT every day. I cannot synthesize all that information even if I could. But an AI CEO could do that, and it would have better information, more context. It could massively parallelize this. I think that would lead to better decisions in many cases.
是啊。因为一个拥有所有知识的超级计算机——你认为我们会达到那个地步吗?
Yeah. Because wouldn't a supercomputer that has all knowledge, which you think we'll get there?
是的。
I do.
你确实这么认为。
You do.
或者说,所有知识很难定义。我认为它会拥有极其庞大的知识量。
Or I mean all knowledge is a hard thing to say. I think it will have vast vast amounts.
它能够告诉我们关于上帝或任何事吗?你觉得呢?
Will it be able to tell us about God or anything? Do you think?
我对此非常好奇。我认为它将能够帮助我们回答目前无法回答的关于宇宙本质的问题。我对我们目前的答案感到非常困惑和不满。
I'm super curious about that. I think it will be able to help us answer questions about the nature of the universe that we currently can't. And I feel very confused and very unsatisfied with our current answers.
而且至少在我看来,显然有一些东西远远超出了我们当前的理解能力。我很想知道那是什么。
And there is clearly, to me at least, something going on well beyond our current capability to understand. And I would love to know what that is.
你认为它能帮助我们学到更多吗?
Do you think it could help us learn more?
是的。
Yes.
它会……我想知道上帝有没有 ChatGPT 之类的,或者他只是得到了第一个版本。但总之,我就是很好奇那会是什么样?嗯,OpenAI 怎么赚钱?
Would it... I wonder if God has a ChatGPT or whatever, or just wonder he got the first one or whatever. But yeah, I'm just so curious like how would that work? Um, how does OpenAI make money?
我们卖 ChatGPT。你每月付 20 美元。有些人付 200 美元,但很少,或者说相对较少。
We sell ChatGPT. You pay 20 bucks a month. Some people pay 200, but very few, or relatively few.
变态。我觉得他们是。
Perverts. I think they are.
呃,希望他们大多数只是工作非常努力,用它来提高工作效率。
Uh, mostly hopefully they're just working super hard and using it to be more productive at their job.
然后我们还卖 API,这样企业可以使用,每次调用 API 时付钱给我们。
And then we also sell an API, so businesses can use it and they pay us every time they make an API call.
好的。嗯,你觉得现在有很多这些科技大佬在呼风唤雨,对吧?你也被归入其中,你知道,有时我觉得自己在边缘。是啊。或者你肯定像……像这些议员,你觉得在这些 AI 领域的科技大佬中有坏艺术家吗?你觉得外面有坏艺术家吗?
Okay. Um, do you think like there's a lot of these tech lords that are rocking right now, right? And you get thrown in there, you know, sometimes I'm like on the periphery. Yeah. Or you get certainly like... like these councilmen, do you think there are bad artists amongst these tech lords in these AI realms? Do you think there are bad artists out there?
坏艺术家是什么意思?
What does bad artist mean?
就是那些想要作恶而不是行善的人。
Just like people that want for evil and not for good.
我认为大多数人不会醒来……我认为很少有人每天早上醒来就说‘我要让世界变得更糟’或‘我要主动作恶’。显然有些人会,但我认为大多数领导大型科技项目的人不属于这一类。我认为人们会被野心蒙蔽。我认为人们会被竞争蒙蔽。我认为人们会陷入……非常善意的人也可能陷入非常负面的激励中。对整个社会来说负面的。
I think most people don't wake up... I think very few people wake up every morning saying 'I'm going to try to make the world a worse place' or 'I'm going to actively try to do evil.' Clearly some do, but I think most of these people running the big tech efforts are not in that category. I think people get blinded by ambition. I think people get blinded by competition. I think people get caught up... like very well-meaning people can get caught up in very negative incentives. Negative for society as a whole.
嗯,顺便说一句,我把我们自己也包括在内。我们完全可能陷入……我们可能非常善意,但陷入某种激励,导致坏的结果。嗯,所以这就是我想说的。我认为人们带着好的意图而来。他们显然有时会做坏事。
Um, and by the way, I include us in this. Like we can totally get caught up... we can be very well-meaning but get caught up in some incentive and it can lead to a bad outcome. Um, so that's kind of what I would say. I think people come in with good intentions. They clearly sometimes do bad stuff.
有很多关于 Palantir 和 Peter Thiel 以及他们公司的讨论,你知道,他们和特朗普达成了一项协议,要进行这种监控……不是监控国家,而是建立一个关于大多数美国人的数据库,但这开始让人感觉像一个监控国家。嗯,你觉得我们未来需要这样的东西吗?你知道,你觉得未来会包含这样的东西吗?
There's a lot of talk about Palantir and Peter Thiel and their company about being like a... you know, they got a deal with Trump about to have this surveillance... not a surveillance state, but to create a database on most of America, but it starts to feel like a surveillance state, you know. Um, do you feel like we will need something like that in order for the future? You know, do you feel like something like that is included in the future?
所以,我不具体了解那件事。我的意思是,我认为 Palantir 和 Peter 做了很多伟大的事情。但我再次强调,我无法具体评论。我总体上担心,世界上 AI 越多,世界就会想要更多的监控,因为这些工具太强大了。政府会说‘我们怎么知道人们没有用它来制造炸弹或生物武器之类的?’答案就是更多的监控,我非常害怕这一点。所以我认为我们必须捍卫隐私权。我不认为这些权利是绝对的。我完全愿意为了集体安全而妥协一些隐私,但历史表明政府会走得太远,我对此非常紧张。
So, I don't know about that specifically. I mean, I think Palantir and Peter do a lot of great stuff. But I again, I can't comment on this specifically. I'll say generally I am worried that the more AI in the world we have, the more surveillance the world is going to want, because the tools are so powerful. The government will say like 'how do we know people aren't using it to make bombs or bioweapons or whatever' and the answer will be more surveillance, and I'm very afraid of that. So I think we really have to defend rights to privacy. I don't think those are absolute. I'm totally willing to compromise some privacy for collective safety, but history is that the government takes that way too far and I'm really nervous about that.
你们觉得新政府有点……还是你觉得政府仍然是一个真实的东西?
Do you guys feel like the new government kind of... or do you feel like the government is still like a real thing?
反正我不觉得政府是。
I don't feel like the government anyway.
你不觉得?最近美国政府轰炸伊朗时,我记得那天早上醒来看到那个新闻,不管是什么时间。我当时想,‘哦,这才是真正的力量。’你知道,我们处于……也许有一天我们会达到那种程度。但这真是一个鲜明的提醒,无论我们认为这有多重要,有些人拥有这种难以想象的权力和力量,几乎可以为所欲为。那绝对不是我们。是啊。我认为最近中东有很多这样的情况,那里有时只是如此粗暴地展示非人道。
You don't? When the US government bombed Iran recently, I remember waking up that morning and seeing that news or whatever time it was. And I was like, 'Oh, that's what actual power looks like.' You know, that we're in like... maybe someday we get there. But it was like a really stark reminder of however important we think this is, it's like there are people that have just like this unimaginable power and might and can kind of do whatever they want. And that's definitely not us. Yeah. I think that's been a lot in the Middle East recently, it's just such a gross display over there sometimes of inhumanity.
绝对。
Absolutely.
这很可悲。嗯,你觉得像 Palantir 或 Peter Thiel 这样的人的最终目标是什么?你觉得他有最终目标吗?因为我觉得他在我们很多人看来像个黑暗领主,就像……你觉得他的最终目标是快乐的吗?
It's sad. Um, what do you think a guy like Palantir or Peter Thiel's endgame is? Do you think he has an endgame? Because I think he seems like a dark lord to a lot of us and it's like... do you think he has an endgame that is like happy?
我认为 Peter 是我见过的最聪明的人之一。
I think Peter is one of the most brilliant people I've ever met.
哦,他比我聪明。那是肯定的。
Oh, he's smarter than me. That's for sure.
我认为他在媒体上确实被描绘成邪恶的主谋,一个反派。确实如此。
I think he does get characterized in the media as this evil mastermind, as a villain. He does.
我从没见过他。
I never met him.
我见过他。我们是很好的朋友。
I met him. We're very close friends.
我当时应该提起这个的。
I should have brought it up then.
不,没关系。不,不,不,不。没关系。我完全没有从他身上感受到那种能量。事实上,我认为他一直是质疑社会道路假设的最重要力量之一,至少在我的生活中是这样。也许我原本想‘哦,我以为一切都很顺利,但也许我们正处于税收停滞,也许我们真的面临这个巨大的经济挑战,却没人谈论。’所以我认为这些思考方式非常不同的人——他会称之为非常反主流——对社会超级重要。但另一方面,嗯,你知道,也许他有时会做这样对他不利的事情。
No, it's all good. No, no, no, no. It's all good. I don't feel that energy from him at all. In fact, I think he's been one of the most important forces, at least in my life, for questioning assumptions about the path that society was on. And maybe I was like 'oh, I thought this was all going well but maybe we are in a tax stagnation and maybe we really do have this huge economic challenge that no one's talking about.' And so I think these people who think very differently — he would call it very contrarian — is super important to a society. Now on the other hand, um, you know, maybe he sometimes does things like this that don't do him any favors.
你更希望人类延续下去,对吧?
You would prefer the human race to endure, right?
呃……
Uh...
你在犹豫。
You're hesitant.
嗯,我……是的。
Well, I... Yes.
我不知道。我会……嗯……
I don't know. I would... um...
这犹豫了很久。这么多次长犹豫。有这么多问题……
This is a long hesitation. So many long hesitations. There's so many questions and...
人类应该生存下去吗?
Should the human race survive?
呃,是的。好吧。但是,但是……
Uh, yes. Okay. But, but...
天哪,我是说,他花了 22 秒。
God, I mean, 22 seconds it took him.
是啊。所以如果他更像一个普通人,他会立刻说‘是’,然后说他想说的其他话。我花了一段时间才理解他的大脑运作方式不同。社会需要一些这样的东西。比如他有这些超级不同的观点,然后他大脑里可能没有那个让他立刻说‘是’然后再说他要说的话的回路。
Yeah. So if he were maybe like a more typical person, he would have just said an immediate yes and then said what else he wanted to say. And it took me a while with him to understand that his brain just works differently. And society needs some of that. Like he has these super different takes and then he doesn't have maybe the circuit in his brain that makes him immediately say yes and then say what he was going to say.
但你知道……他的处理器。是啊。
But you know... his processors. Yeah.
我非常感激他的存在,因为他会想到别人想不到的事情。是啊,你知道,你想要……总有新颖的思想家一直在改变事物。有时变好,有时变坏,有时无关紧要,但新颖的思想家一直……我不知道,这始终是人性的一部分。
I'm very grateful he exists because he thinks of things no one else does. Yeah, you know, you want... there are novel thinkers who have changed things throughout time. Sometimes for the better and sometimes for the worse, sometimes for the indifferent, but novel thinkers have always... I don't know, it's always been part of humanity.
相对于大多数人,我可能超级不同、超级奇怪,但你知道,也许我因此有一些想法,对社会整体有价值。
I'm probably super different and super weird relative to most people, but you know, maybe I have some ideas as part of that that are like valuable to society collectively.
如果我抱着这种非常常规的心态,我就不会了。
And if I had this sort of very standard mindset, I wouldn't.
说得好。
That's a good point.
是啊。好吧,你觉得——我就直接问了,兄弟,说真的——你觉得这些人里是不是有很多……我是说,你知道,《爱情在光谱上》不是什么大热剧对吧?那些人都在恋爱。我认识的一半人,你知道,勉强在停车场里哭什么的。但,嗯,你知道,他们的婚姻问题什么的。不过不管怎样,我的意思是,你觉得现在有些创作者和科技大佬是不是几乎内置了某种技术?就像……我不想说像自闭症,老兄,因为……
Yeah. Well, do you think, and I'm just going to ask you, bro, honestly, do you think a lot of these guys have... I mean, you know, it's not like, you know, Love on the Spectrum is like a big show, right? People, you know, it's like, and those people are in love. Every half people I know are just, you know, barely, you know, they're crying in parking lots or whatever. But, um, you know, their spousal issues, whatever. But anyway, what I'm saying is, do you think that uh some of the creators now and some of the the tech lords are almost have some tech built into them? Like almost a... I don't want to say like an autism, dude, cuz...
你不能那么说。
You couldn't say that.
好吧。
Okay.
我觉得是。我是说,是的。我……你知道,用最苛刻的眼光看我们这群人,我可以,你知道,我们整体上是不是有点自闭?我会说可能吧。
I think so. I mean, yeah. I... you know, to take the kind of like harshest look at us collectively, I can, you know, are we a little autistic on the whole? I would say probably.
好吧,老兄。我就知道。
Okay, dude. I knew that.
但那没关系。
But that's all right.
不,不,我就是这个意思。几年前我第一次遇到一些自闭症患者时,我就想,老兄,这些人就是计算机对吧?就像很多人,你知道,他们有些……他们在思维方式上有点像半机械人,对吧?
No, no, that's what I'm saying. Years ago I was... first time I ever met some people with autism I was like dude these guys are computers right? Like a lot of these guys are just, you know, they're some, they're kind of like a little bit of a cyborg in some way in the way that they think, right?
你知道,你看,我……你是个不可思议地迷人又酷的家伙,而我比你更像计算机。
You know, look, I'm... you are this like impossibly charming cool guy and I'm like kind of a lot more computery than you.
不过也没差太多。
Not much though.
我们可以拥有它,我们仍然可以搞定。
We can have it, we can still like figure it out.
是啊。我真的不是冒犯,但我觉得我们可能需要人们身上有那种特质,才能迎来世界的下一步。你觉得这现实吗?
Yeah. And I really don't mean as an offense but I think that we may need that in people to get whatever's next in the world. You think that's realistic?
是的。我认为社会需要非常广泛的人群多样性。你需要一些像我这样的人。你需要一些比我更正常的人。你不想要太多像我这样的人。但……
Yeah. I think society needs like this very broad diversity of people. You need some people like me. You need some people who are more normal than me. You don't want too many of me. But like...
是啊。是啊。你不想要太多任何一种人。对。
Yeah. Yeah. You don't want too many of anyone thing. Yeah.
是啊。我总在想,‘天哪,是啊,这些人能够以不同的方式看待事物,以不同的方式量化事物。’
Yeah. I'm just always I'm like, 'God, yeah, these people are able to see things differently and quantify things differently.'
你总是觉得,因为一些科技人士……他们对可能性的理解不同,对吧?对感觉和事物的理解也不同。你一直觉得自己是人类吗?
Do you always feel because some tech guys are... they just have a different understanding of possibility, right? A different understanding of feeling and thing. Do you feel human all the time?
我一直觉得自己是人类,但我注意到,我对未来、指数级变化、技术复利的思考方式,与我在日常生活中遇到的几乎任何人都截然不同。所以……
I do feel human all the time, but I feel like I have noticed that I think extremely differently about the future, about exponential change, about compounding technology than than almost anybody else that I kind of come across in regular life. So...
那很酷。
That's cool.
我非常有人的感觉。我觉得,你知道,和任何人一样被疯狂的情绪驱动。但我非常清楚,我的视角和很多人不同。
I feel extremely human. I feel like, you know, driven by crazy emotions as much as anybody. But I am like very aware that I have a different lens than a lot of people.
你有没有在科技圈遇到过一些人,然后你想,‘哇,那家伙只有百分之六七。他很低。他里面没多少人性。’
Have you met some people in tech space and you're like, 'Whoa, that guy is only like six or seven percent. He's low. He not a lot of human in it.'
有。
Yes.
是啊。好吧。嗯,你觉得 AI 或 AGI 与我们的身体融合是不可避免的吗?我知道你以前谈过这个。随着事情快速发展和进步,你开始有点不同的看法了吗?我知道你谈过你不认为它像眼镜之类的东西。
Yeah. Okay. Um, do you think it's inevitable that AI or AGI will merge into our bodies? I know you've talked about this before in the past. As things go along and advance quickly, do you start to see that a little bit differently? I know you've talked about how you don't think it's like a glasses thing or something like that.
我给你讲个有趣的故事。
I'll tell you a fascinating story.
好。
Okay.
上周我和一个朋友在一起。
I was with a friend last week.
我问那个问题冒犯你了吗?
And did I offend you by asking you that?
完全没有。我觉得那是个很好的回答,我真的很感激,因为是的,我们有些人……有时无法概念化你们是怎么想的。无法……我甚至觉得我们搞不明白,你知道吗?所以,感觉几乎像是一种独特的……就像我们都在进化成一种新物种,那就是我们无论如何都会遇见未来的地方,而你就像那个该死的保罗·里维尔在那里,你……就像……
Not at all. I thought that was a great answer and I really appreciate it because yeah, some of us are... we can't conceptualize sometimes how you guys are thinking. It can't... I can't even like we feel like we can't figure it out, you know? So, it feels like it's almost like a unique... it's like are we all evolving into this new kind of species and that's where we meet the future at anyway and you're just like the dang Paul River out there, you... It's like...
无论好坏,我觉得每当你看到有人想法和你不同时,就像……我对你很着迷。我不太明白你是怎么做到的。我知道我做不到。我知道你只是对世界的理解和我不同,但我觉得那很酷,我就想,好吧,我很高兴。
For better or for worse, it's... I think whenever you see someone who thinks differently than you, it's like... I'm fascinated by you. I don't quite understand how you do your thing. I know I couldn't do it. I know you like just understand the world differently than me, but I think that's cool and I'm just like all right, I'm glad.
是啊,我就是这么觉得的。
Yeah, that's how I feel.
我觉得只是……谢谢你跟我聊这个,因为有时我觉得我不敢说那个。
I think it's just... thanks for just talking to me about it cuz sometimes I think I get afraid to say that.
我觉得你不应该害怕。我觉得没人会被那个冒犯。嗯,不过我跟我一个朋友聊过他是怎么用 ChatGPT 的,他已经大量用了好几年,最近他注意到他开始给它做性格测试。他会把能找到的任何性格测试上传给 ChatGPT,然后说根据你对我的了解,回答这个。他从来没有……他从来没有告诉过它这是我的性格。它只是从他多年来问的问题中学会了。
I don't think you should be afraid. I don't think anybody would be offended by that. Um, I was talking to this friend of mine though about how he uses ChatGPT and he's been using it a lot for a couple years now and he noticed recently that he started giving it personality tests. He'd upload any personality test he could find to ChatGPT and say based on what you know about me, answer this. And he had never... he had never like told it here's my personality. It had just learned it from the questions he asked over the years.
而且在他试过的每一个测试上,它都得到了完全相同的答案和完全相同的他本会得到的结果。
And on everyone he tried it got exactly the answer and exactly the outcome he would get.
所以那不像他上传了自己,他没有被融合,他没有往大脑里插什么东西,但不知怎么的,他的模式被印刻到了这个 AI 里。
And so that's not like he didn't get uploaded, he didn't get merged, he didn't plug something into his brain but somehow like the pattern of him had gotten imprinted into this AI.
哇,也许我们没有自己想的那么复杂。
Wow, maybe we're not as complex as we think we are.
或者也许我们很复杂,而 AI 只是能学得很好。AI 可以代表这些非常复杂的东西。两者之一。但那对我来说是一个真实的时刻,就像,哇,你知道,融合也许可以以我们想过的非常不同的方式发生。
Or maybe we are and AI can just learn it really well. AI can like represent these very complex things. One of those two. But that was a real moment for me of like, wow, you know, the merge maybe can happen in a very different way than we thought.
是啊。是啊。因为你把它想象成某种接管你系统的东西,就像,你知道,你爸按个按钮你就不能用汽车了,你知道,你一个月不能动什么的。
Yeah. Yeah. Because you think of it as this thing kind of taking over your system and like, you know, your dad presses a button and you can't use the car, you know, you can't move for a month or whatever.
是啊。我觉得它有点那种能量。
Yeah. I think it kind of has that sort of energy.
你刚刚完成了对乔尼·艾维硬件公司的收购。所以很明显你对硬件和 AI 如何在人类中相互配合有一些想法或兴趣。那是怎么回事?
You just finished the acquisition of Jony Ive's hardware company. So clearly you have some thoughts or interest in how hardware and AI match up for each other in humanity. What was that about?
历史上计算机有两次革命。第一次是键盘、鼠标和屏幕。那个东西是在街那头发明的,我想是 70 年代,施乐帕克的人搞清楚了后来成为现代计算机界面的东西。然后大概在 2000 年代早期到中期,我想苹果想出了设备上触摸的想法。实际上那是两大革命。我认为现在可以有第三次。我认为 AI 极大地改变了游戏规则,你可以基于一个非常智能的 AI 设计一种新型计算机,你可以向系统发出复杂指令。它可以去执行。你会相信它能做对。你会相信它能代表你行动。
There have been two revolutions in computers in history. There was the keyboard, mouse and screen. That thing that was invented down the street in I think the 70s where the people at Xerox PARC figured out what has become the modern computer interface. And then in the early to mid 2000s I guess Apple figured out this idea of touch on a device. And really those have been the two big ones. I think now there can be a third. I think AI is it so changes the game that you can design a new kind of computer based off of a really smart AI where you can give a complex instruction to a system. It can go do it. You'll trust that it gets it right. You'll trust it to act on your behalf.
它或许能感知这个房间里发生的一切,而且不只是开关两种状态,而是可以轻轻引起我们的注意,或者更强烈地提醒我们。它能真正跟上我们这里的对话,之后提醒我们双方一些事情。而当前的硬件做不到这一点。我认为现有的计算机并不公平,它们没有体现出技术的真正能力。所以,我想制造一种全新的计算机,专为 AI 时刻帮助你而设计。我对此感到非常兴奋。
It could maybe be aware of everything going on in this room and it could kind of not just be on or off but lightly get our attention if it wants us to know something or more aggressively get our attention. It could really be following what we're talking about here and remind us both of things later. And current hardware just can't do that. The current kind of computers we have, I don't think are a fair, they don't honor what the technology is really capable of. So, I want to make a totally new kind of computer that is meant for this world of AI helping you all the time. I'm super excited about it.
你是?
You are?
是的。
Yeah.
我之前看到你们展示的那个叫智能体的东西。我提这个可能不太合适,本来不该说的。但它确实很吸引人,看到它很酷。
I saw this thing called agent that you guys had showed me earlier. I can take this out if I mention it. I wasn't supposed to. It was pretty fascinating. It was cool to see it.
是的。这是我们刚做的新东西。但关键在于,AI 不仅能回答你的问题,还能作为你的智能体替你实际做事。它可以为你做研究、预订东西、购买东西,甚至改变世界上的某些事情,并且能更深入地思考和使用工具。我认为大多数人把 ChatGPT 看作一个可以问任何问题的应用,但它会变成一个能做任何事的东西,这将改变你使用电脑的方式,也会改变你生活中的做事方式。
It is. Yeah. This is a new thing that we just did. But the idea that an AI can not just answer questions for you, but it can go actually do stuff on your behalf as your agent. It can go do research for you. It can go book something for you. It can go buy something for you. It can go change some things in the world for you and think more and use tools. I think most people think of ChatGPT as this app that you can ask anything, but it'll become this thing that can do anything and that'll change how you use computers. It'll change how you do things in your life.
是啊,我看那个人操作的时候觉得特别神奇。他演示了一次,他去一个网站买了需要的东西。然后从那以后,他就可以直接说:“嘿,去这个网站给我买这些”,或者“去我喜欢的餐厅看看明天晚上 7 点有没有空位”。它就能预订并完成所有事情。就像有个秘书在身边一样。
Yeah, I was watching the guy do it and it was just kind of fascinating. He was showing like one time he'd went to a website and bought something that he needed. And then now moving forward, he could just be like, 'Hey, go to this and make sure to get me these or go to the restaurants I like and see if there's any table available for 7:00 p.m. tomorrow.' And it was able to book it and do everything. It was like having a secretary right there.
确实如此。我第一次用的时候就有那种感觉,那一刻我意识到,天哪,用老方法做这件事很快就会感觉像石器时代一样。
It totally did. When I first started using it, I was like, it was one of those moments where I could tell that, oh man, doing this the old-fashioned way is going to feel like the stone age so quickly.
你知道吗,我以后会跟别人说:“你还记得吗,以前我们想做点什么事,得自己在网上点来点去找桌子,想改时间还得打电话给餐厅?”那将变得难以想象,因为你当然只需要告诉你的 AI 去做那些事。
You know I'm going to try to tell people someday like, 'Do you remember when if we wanted to do something we actually had to go click around the internet and look for a table and then if we wanted to move it we had to call the restaurant?' And that's going to be unimaginable because of course you just tell your AI to do those things for you.
是啊。你甚至感觉可以直接让它替你去吃,你知道吗?
Yeah. You feel like you would almost just tell it to go eat too, you know?
那才是好玩的部分。
That's the fun part.
对,没错。
Yeah. Oh yeah.
没人喜欢订桌。大家都喜欢坐在那儿吃。
No one likes booking the table. Everyone loves sitting there eating.
说得好。它不会夺走有趣的部分。我觉得你得记住这一点:它不会夺走有趣的部分。
That's a good point. It won't take away the fun part. That's the thing I think you got to remember: it won't take away the fun part.
你会去做你想做的事。生活中有很多事你可能并不喜欢做,比如订个空桌可能就是其中之一。
You're going to do the things you want to do. There's a lot of things in your life you probably don't love doing. Like booking an open table is maybe one of them.
是啊。然后还会有老派的人说:“我来订。”你就会说:“爸,你什么意思?挂掉电话。别打给他们,你个怪人。用你的智能体。”
Yeah. And then you'll have old-fashioned people like, 'I'll book it.' You know, you're like, 'Dad, what do you mean? Get off the phone. Don't call them, you freaking weirdo. Use your agent.'
完全同意。
Totally.
最近扎克伯格好像在到处挖人,对吧?我就直说了,你不用回应。据说是这样,我没说他真干了。他雇了我一个朋友。但我的意思是,有这种说法,他在四处挖人。这在圈子里是不是有点像黑手党的做法?在科技战壕里是什么感觉?
There's a lot of like, you know, Zuckerberg recently kind of was poaching guys around town, right? And I'll say it, you don't have to say it. Allegedly. I'm not saying he did. He hired one of my buddies. But what I'm saying is there's this hypothetical that he was kind of poaching guys around town. Is that did it feel like a mafioso move in the community? What was that like out here in the tech trenches?
我的意思是,他们想进入 AI 领域,我能理解。所以,如果他要这么做,他需要招人。那就来吧。
I mean, you know, they want to get into the AI game. I understand it. So, if he's going to do this, he needs to hire some people. So, bring it.
那就来吧。是啊。我马上要把自己上传到这棵植物里了。好吧,不开玩笑。你喜欢这种竞争吗?有趣吗?
So, bring it. Yeah. I'm gonna upload myself into this plant in a second. Okay. No, but no. Does it do you kind of like the competition? Is that fun?
是的。竞争嘛,赢是有趣的。是的,我期望赢。
It is. Yeah, competition. Like winning is fun. Yeah. And I expect to win.
而且你得热爱竞争。这是其中一部分,对吧?这让它变得有趣。
And you got to love the competition. That's part of it, right? It makes it fun.
我想如果世界上没有竞争和戏剧性,那会多么无聊。
I think what it would be like if we didn't have competition and drama in the world. It would be so boring.
你能再说一点吗?
Could you say one more thing about that?
实际上,我能再说一点吗?过去几年里,我在个人生活和幸福感上做出的最大改进是:我们经历了很多坏事。对我来说,这是一段极其紧张的体验。我决定要学着去热爱那些艰难的部分。我就想,你知道吗?如果我处在这种疯狂的时刻,情绪高涨,我就让自己学会感激它,热爱它,在紧张、竞争等等中找到乐趣。结果这真的奏效了,而且它必须奏效,因为每天都有那么多事情出错。但我在想,总有一天我会退休,在我的牧场上坐着看植物生长,那时我会怀念这些兴奋、戏剧、愤怒、紧张等等。所以我要感激它,学着从中找到乐趣。
Actually, can I say one more thing about that? The best improvement I made in my life in my personally in my life and for my own happiness over the last couple years. A lot of bad has happened to us. To me, it's been like a crazy intense experience. And I just decided that I was going to learn to love the hard parts. I was like, you know what? If I'm in this crazy moment, if I'm in this crazy thing, if I feel my emotions are high, I'm going to make myself learn to be grateful for that, to love it, to find enjoyment in the tension, in the competition, whatever. And actually it worked and it kind of needed to work because so many things go wrong in any given day. But I was thinking, you know, someday I'll be retired on my ranch. I'll be sitting there watching the plants grow and I'll be missing the excitement and the drama and the anger and the tension and the whatever. And so I'm going to be grateful for it and learn to have fun with it.
而且现在,我简直不敢相信那种心态转变居然奏效了,但它确实奏效了。有没有一些练习,比如在某个时刻,比如早期的一些时刻?因为我同意你的看法,比如我以前讨厌每周出差工作,但有一天我对自己说,老兄,你必须为工作出差。接受它。你不如找到办法,因为多年来你一直这样,然后突然它就不那么糟糕了。我也经历过。是有什么练习,还是只是口头提醒自己“我要这样做”?
And now it like I cannot believe that that mindset shift worked but it did. And were there practices like in a moment like say a moment came up like some of the early ones, right? Because I agree with you that like having some mindset like I used to hate traveling like every week traveling for work but then one day I was like dude you have to travel for work. Deal with it. You may as well find you may as well cuz for years you've been just and right there suddenly it wasn't bad anymore. That happened for me too. Was there like a just a practice or was it just this verbal reminder like I'm going to do this.
我就一直对自己说。我就想,总有一天你会怀念这些时刻。你不如找到一种方式,在当下找到幸福和深深的感激。
I just kept saying it to myself. I was just like, someday you'll miss these moments. You may as well find a way to find the happiness and kind of great gratitude for them in the moment.
很多人都有地堡。扎克伯格有一个,我知道在夏威夷某处。人们都有地堡。你有地堡吗?
A lot of these guys have bunkers. Zucky has a bunker. I know that somewhere out in Hawaii. People have bunkers. Do you have a bunker?
我有那种地下混凝土重型加固地下室,但我没有什么我会称之为……
I have like underground concrete heavy reinforced basements, but I don't have anything I would call...
等等,等等,等等,老兄。听着,这场对话里很多地方我都让你占上风,但我得指出,那特么就是个地堡,老兄。山姆,那就是个地堡。
Hold on, hold on, hold on, dude. Look, I'll let you keep me on the ropes in a lot of this conversation, but I am going to call that out as a dang bunker, dude. Sam, that's a bunker.
地堡里不是有个地下室吗?一个当一切崩溃时可以躲藏的地方之类的。
Wasn't there a basement in a bunker? A place you could hide when it all goes off or whatever.
我不知道。
I don't know.
是的,我一直在想,我应该好好弄一个这样的东西,但我没有那种我称之为“地堡”的东西。我一直在想这件事,不是因为 AI,而是因为世界上又有人在扔炸弹了。
Yeah, I have been thinking I should really do a good version of one of those, but I don't have what I would call a bunker. It has been on my mind, not because of AI, but just because people are dropping bombs in the world again.
说得好。说得非常好。是的。那是地下室,房屋建筑的一部分,通常用于储物、洗衣、额外生活空间或公用设施。而地堡则是为防护而建,通常与军事或紧急情况相关,旨在抵御爆炸。
That's a good point. That's a very good point. Yeah. Basin right there. Part of a house building typically used for storage, laundry, extra living space, or utilities. And then bunker built for protection. Often military or emergency related meant to withstand explosions.
我们还没有那个。你们这是专门为我做的,还是用 ChatGPT 做的事实核查?
We don't have that yet. Do you guys do this just for me or do you use ChatGPT as the fact check?
我们专门为你做的。
We did this just for you.
我很感激。
I appreciate it.
嗯,这很好。如果我们能……你开始看到,比如说如果 AI 来了,会有一种全新的……你知道,我相信正在发生的事情之一是,有很多 ICE 突袭,人们被从家中带走,有很多镇压。我部分相信他们必须让每个人都登记或联网,基本上是因为他们将开始到处使用面部识别。我有这个想法。所以是的,这些事情必须发生,因为在一两年内,你甚至无法在户外任何地方待着,而不会有无人机或摄像头注意到你不该在那里,或者你没有证件,对吧?不管人们对此怎么想。但我开始看到,哦,好吧,这正在发生。你认为我们将来会不会有新的国家,几乎像是由新的 AI 景观来划分?还记得在 Snapchat 上,如果你在某个领域,你可以加一个滤镜,他们几乎创造了这些新的地理屏障之类的东西。你认为我们有一天可能会看到类似的东西吗?
Um, this is nice. If could we ever have instead of... so you start to see, say if AI comes over and there's this whole new kind of... you know, I believe that one of the things that's been happening, there's been a lot of ICE raids and people getting taken out of their homes, and there's been a lot of crackdown. Part of me believes that they're having to get everybody documented or online basically because they're going to start to have this facial recognition everywhere. Like I have this idea of that. So yes, this stuff had to happen because in a year or year and a half you wouldn't even be able to be outdoors anywhere without a drone or something noticing you or some camera noticing that you're not supposed to be there or you're not there with documentation, right? Whatever people's thoughts are on that. But just so part of me starts to see like, oh, okay, that's going on. Do you think we could ever then down the line have new countries like delineated by almost like a new AI landscape? Like remember when on Snapchat if you were in a certain realm you could put like a filter on something and they almost created these new geo barriers and stuff. Do you think we could potentially be looking at something like that one day?
我知道你刚才说的会发生。我知道我们到处都会有摄像头,这会让城市安全得多,因为每个人,如果你犯罪,他们会立即通过面部识别找到你。但是,天哪,我觉得这很反乌托邦吗?你当然也这么觉得。如果这意味着人们不再在街头被谋杀,这是个好的交易吗?是的,当然。我们同意为此放弃一些隐私。但这让我非常不舒服,你知道,在伦敦或其他地方,你看到每个街角都有那些摄像头,你很快就习惯了。但你只是觉得,隐私很重要,而我生活在世界上却无法避开所有这些摄像头。也许对社会整体来说是值得的,但感觉我们确实放弃了很多来换取它。
I know that what you just said is going to happen. I know that we're going to have cameras all over the place and it's going to make the cities way safer because everybody, like if you commit a crime, they'll have a facial recognition hit on you right away. But man, do I find that dystopic? Like you do, of course. Is it a good trade if it means like people stop getting murdered in the streets? Yeah, sure. We agree to give up some privacy for that. But it sits so uncomfortably with me, you know, in London or whatever, you see those cameras on every street corner and you just get used to it fast. But you're just like, it feels like privacy is important and there's nothing I can do to live in the world and avoid all these cameras. Maybe it's worth it for society collectively, but it feels like we really do give up a lot to get it.
是的。
Yeah.
但你认为有一天,如果我们有了那个,我们会不会有全新的国家,那种……
But could there one day you think if we had that then we could have whole new countries kind of that were...
在这种情况下,你说的新国家是什么意思?
What do you mean by new countries in this case?
比如说,如果有一种新的监控层在空中,那么它能不能被划分成不同的领域?哦,是的,完全可以。我认为有很多奇怪的方式可以实现。但监控层太让人不舒服了。
Like say if there was this new layer of surveillance that's kind of in the air, then could that be divided into different realms? Oh yes, totally. That can happen. I think there's all kinds of weird ways that that can happen. But the surveillance layer is so uncomfortable.
哦,是的,那将是一张令人讨厌的毯子。你还有什么想谈的,想让我问你的吗?
Oh yeah, it's going to be a nasty blanket. Is there anything else that you wanted to talk about, you wanted to get out that you want me to ask you about?
不,那很好。
No, that was great.
哦,为什么……为什么 ChatGPT 有那个连字符?
Oh, why are there... Why does ChatGPT have that hyphen thing?
我们得对此做点什么。你知道,我们有一个团队负责确定模型的个性应该是什么样的,以及它应该如何表现。很多用户喜欢破折号,所以我们加了更多破折号。现在我觉得破折号太多了。但答案就是:用户喜欢,我们就加多了。现在这有点像个梗,而且让我很烦。我们应该修复这个问题。
We got to do something about that. You know, we have this team that figures out what the model's personality should be like and how it should behave. And a lot of users like em dashes, so we added more em dashes. And now I think we have too many em dashes. But that's the answer: it was just like users liked it, we put more in. Now it's a little bit of a meme and it's quite annoying to me. We should fix that.
但你也在考虑这件事。
But you're thinking about it, too.
我想我们很快就会修复它。
I think we'll get it fixed very soon.
好的。在你走之前,Sam,非常感谢你今天的时间。太棒了。我们很感激,伙计。我觉得这让我更了解你了。可能和之前不一样……我不知道我是否有过看法。我不知道该怎么想。
Okay. Before you go, Sam, and thank you so much for your time today. It's been awesome. We appreciate it, man. It's helped me get to understand you, I feel like, a lot. I think maybe differently than I... I don't know if I had a perception. I didn't know what to think.
之前和之后有什么不同?
What's the before and after?
呃,之前有点像……我想我几乎觉得没那么有希望,但我不知道为什么。也许那只是我自己的……我认为是把我自己对 AI 和技术的可能性的看法投射到了你身上。现在我觉得更随性了,有点像……也不是随性,而是……
Uh, the before was like a little bit like... I guess I almost thought kind of like not as hopeful, but I don't know why. Maybe that's just my own... I think it's attaching my own perceptions of what I think about AI and stuff or the possibilities of technology, you know, like that kind of energy. I think I was probably attaching it to you. And now I feel like more whimsical about it, kind of like... or not whimsical but like...
看看会发生什么,对吧?
Let's see what can happen, right?
所以我想……
And so I think...
我认为不仅仅是“看看会发生什么”,而是“让我们努力让它变好”,但要意识到你无法看到整条路。你只能一步一步走,然后一点点照亮前方。
I think it's not just 'let's see', it's like 'let's try to make it good', but let's realize that you have to... you don't get to see all the way down the road. You kind of got to go one turn at a time and you light up a little bit more.
是的。是的。我想……是的。我不知道。我真的很感谢你。甚至让我告诉你我之前是怎么想的,我在评判什么,然后分享我现在是怎么想的。20 年后,你希望你的遗产是什么?
Yeah. Yeah. I think... Yeah. I don't know. I'm really thankful for you. Even let me tell you what I thought, what I was judging, and then sharing kind of where I thought what I thought now. In 20 years, what do you hope your legacy will be?
你会有一个的。
You're going to have one.
我是说,是的。我想你当然不会……
I mean, yeah. I guess you certainly don't...
我不认为有人在比赛进行中会坐着想之后的评价会是什么。至少我不会。而且你会有一个很大的评价。
I don't think anyone sits around while they're in the middle of the game thinking about what the review is going to be after. At least I don't. And this is a big review you'll have.
我从来没有被那种东西激励过……我想尽我所能打好比赛,做最好的工作,获得最大的乐趣,产生最大的影响,做最有趣的事情。但然后你退休,然后你死了,然后生活继续,人们像他们应该做的那样继续生活,忘记了你。而这一切“我要为死后如何被记住而活,为我的遗产而活”……你已经死了,你知道吗?
I have never been that motivated by like what... I want to play the game the best I can, and I want to do the best work I can, have the most fun, have the most impact, do the most interesting stuff. But then you retire and then you die and then life goes on and people, as they're supposed to, go on with life and forget about you. And this whole thing of 'I'm going to live for how I'm remembered after I die and my legacy'... you're dead, you know?
你有没有那种和那些人一起保存心脏的协议?
Do you have one of those deals where you're saving your heart with those people?
你是什么意思?
What do you mean?
你的大脑,抱歉,和那边的人。人体冷冻。你有冷冻协议吗?
Your brain, sorry, with the people over there. Cryonics. You have a cryonics deal?
不,我……
No, I...
有人找过你吗?
Have you been approached about it?
有人找过我。
I have been approached by it.
你甚至都没来找我。我什么都没要求过。
You haven't even approached me. I haven't asked for anything.
有一家 Y 公司,或者别的什么公司,很久以前我帮过一点小忙,存了点钱,后来再没跟进过,所以现在也没什么安排。
There was this Y company or company that I helped out a long time ago by giving some small deposit to, and then I never followed up on it, so I don't have anything in place.
好吧。不过也许在某个地方存点首付。如果情况不妙,我们就去敲他们的门。嗯,但真的非常感谢你,老兄。James Basher 向你问好。他是我的朋友,人很好。我们非常感激你,Sam。谢谢你的时间。
Okay. But maybe a down payment somewhere down there. If things get weird, we'll go knock on their door. Yeah, but thank you so much, man. James Basher says hello. He's a friend of mine. He's a great guy. And we just appreciate you so much, Sam. Thanks for your time.
谢谢你做这个。我真的很享受。
Thanks for doing this. I really enjoyed it.
感谢你今天的时间。我觉得内容非常丰富。
Thank you for your time today. I thought it was very informative.
我觉得我必须是基石。哦,但当我到达那个境地时,我会分享我找到的这份平静。我能从骨子里感受到。但这需要……
And I feel like I must be corner stone. Oh, but when I reach that ground, I'll share this piece of mind I found. I can feel it in my bones. But it's going to take...